Newspoll: 58-42

Tasmanian reader Econocrat tells of a stunning Newspoll result foreshadowed on tonight’s Lateline: 58-42 to Labor. More to follow …

UPDATE: Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has increased to 50 per cent to 37 per cent. Like the two-party figure, this is a 2 per cent change in either direction from last week. Preliminary reports at Sky News and The Australian.

UPDATE 2: Graphic here, Dennis Shanahan here. Kevin Rudd’s satisfaction rating has recovered three points after a dip last week; the Coalition’s lead on the question of best party to handle the economy has narrowed to 46-37 from 48-33 three weeks ago; its lead on best party to handle national security has unaccountably narrowed from 45-33 to 43-39; and Labor’s leads on education and health have widened considerably. No doubt much of this can be put down to a very Labor-friendly poll sample. Most interesting is a question on strength of voting intention which gives no reason to think the support for Labor might be “soft”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

782 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42”

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  1. From Adam on the previous thread:

    I seem to recall that Henrike Johnston ran for Canning for the Libs FOUR times before she finally won it, then she lost it after one term.

    That’s as I remember it, but I don’t remember her being called anything other than Ricky.

  2. Just in:

    Tony Abbot accuses those surveyed by Newspoll as ‘already having made up their minds’ and asks where Newspoll found these people.

  3. I’m a neutral observer with Labor sympathies

    I try not to overreact

    But still….. HOLY S#!@T

    Using the immortal Antony Green’s calculator (you’re a legend Antony and we all luv ya) this equals …… it won’t fit!!!!!!!!!!!

    Never in my wildest dreams did I think it this happen

    What bloody narrowing?

  4. Well there’s a few people on this blog that will sleep more soundly tonight LOL

    What I said about the favourable polls for the Libs last week holds true for this Newspoll as well. It was taken in a period where Labor dominated the news cycle, it’s little wonder 58-42 was the result.

    It is however pretty convincing evidence the Libs tax policy wasn’t a ‘knockout punch’, ‘king-hit’ or whatever other analogy was used this time last week.

    Long way to go, but good signs for Labor…

  5. Confirmed on Sky. Someone get the Packer-whacker for Johnny.

    Malcolm Farr on Sky – “Shows you what half a computer can do”

  6. I still cannot believe this ๐Ÿ™‚

    Not in my wildest dreams did i think it would be 58/42 ๐Ÿ™‚

    Has this ever happened before that the alp has widened the gap so much in the first week?

  7. OK, no hubris, settle down people, we must all be calm and rational about this…..


  8. Adam, with 58-42, and the economy issue largely exhausted for any real mileage in the media cycle, it is time to turn to the Labor strengths (save for Could overt enthusiasm be an acceptable attitude?

  9. Might I suggest we take this as 55/45 with MOE and not get to over confident. It just mean one weak closer and status quo, 5 to go and stay on the ball Kevi [and no measuring offices].

  10. WOW!




    I am genuinely stunned. Both at the 2PP and the preferred PM figures. Not to mention this was taken before the debate.


  11. I wonder why Smirky didn’t rule out a leadership challenge today?

    By the way, I’ve stopped now……

    YOU BEAUTY!!!!!!!

    OK, now I’ve stopped…….

  12. Ok I’ll play my pessimism card – this is obviously too good to be true, so next week when it goes to 56-44 the GG will run “Howard fights back”…

    nah bugger it, the Libs needed to get momentum early. It was THE ONLY reason they released their tax policy last week. It failed.

    What else can they do now?

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