Newspoll: 58-42

Tasmanian reader Econocrat tells of a stunning Newspoll result foreshadowed on tonight’s Lateline: 58-42 to Labor. More to follow …

UPDATE: Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has increased to 50 per cent to 37 per cent. Like the two-party figure, this is a 2 per cent change in either direction from last week. Preliminary reports at Sky News and The Australian.

UPDATE 2: Graphic here, Dennis Shanahan here. Kevin Rudd’s satisfaction rating has recovered three points after a dip last week; the Coalition’s lead on the question of best party to handle the economy has narrowed to 46-37 from 48-33 three weeks ago; its lead on best party to handle national security has unaccountably narrowed from 45-33 to 43-39; and Labor’s leads on education and health have widened considerably. No doubt much of this can be put down to a very Labor-friendly poll sample. Most interesting is a question on strength of voting intention which gives no reason to think the support for Labor might be “soft”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

782 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42”

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  5. ahhhhhhh
    4-1 talkback AGAINST the LP tax cuts was NEVER momentum.
    I even yelled at Brissenden on the 730 report tonight for referring to it as such.
    What’s the reaction going to be?
    I’m betting “all steady, nothing new” from the ALP for another week and panic like we’ve never seen form the LP – I think it’s Hockey’s turn tomorrow isn’t it?

  7. OMG

    I agree Kina, it may be an outlier but it ain’t the ‘Narrowing’!

    Santa Claus just walked through my door!!!!!!!!!

  13. I thought there would b e a widening. I think Possum is on the record of thinking the same thing. It will widen even further. This will be a once-in-a-generation tsunami.

  17. Correct me if I’m wrong, but a result like this requires a labor primary vote to be at least 50%.

    This is a complete kick in the gonads…..

    I need to go and sit down somewhere, find an ice-pack, and wonder if I’ll ever conceive children

    groannnnnnnnnnn

  19. BREAKING: white powder found at parliament, found on HoR side. Are the libs trying to start their own terror scare? Way too coincidental.

  20. [George Megalogenas says gap narrowing on economy and national security]

    That means the government is on the way out. Voting intention is most important, but those gapes narrowing mean people are changing their mind on those issues to justify prefering Labor, not the other way around.

  25. Adam,

    i recall you ,some weeks ago, calling possum and others(me) fools for suggesting that some Lib strongholds like North Sydney, Ryan, Sturt, Goldstein,Higgins, Kooyong, Grey etc are in play.

    any change of mind now?

    Rudd is no hero to Labor left supporters but he is KRYPTONITE to Howard with “wet” Lib supporters.

  27. Yes, Just Me. My prediction after the Rudd tax policy was that it would enable Labor to hold the line in Newspoll at 55 and that would be good enough. I’m very pleased to be wrong.

  31. Let’s be objective here (I know it’s hard to do, bear with me)

    What can the Libs do now? Let’s think from their side….

    National security

    Ditch Howard (not as dumb as it sounds)

    I struggling to think of things…….

  32. 72
    TofK Says:
    October 22nd, 2007 at 9:43 pm
    Eggo, Im filling my glass with chardonnay as I type (dont ask me how).

    thanks for that thought, I just finished mine, will go back for a refill 😉

  33. At least this in part destroys any media narrative of a ‘comeback’ for the Liberal Party. Watch and see Liberal internal polling be leaked showing them ‘in front in the bush and key marginals’.

  34. Harry, I don’t think I called anyone a fool. I begged to differ with the construction Possum was putting on the Newspoll extrapolations. I am sticking by my prediction of 20 seats.

  36. #76
    Julie Says:
    October 22nd, 2007 at 9:44 pm

    Now we know the real reason why Costello wouldn’t come onto the 7:30 report with Kerry 😉 …

    And maybe why the PM seemed a grumpy old man last night.New he had to win to try and stay in the race.

  41. Stopped by the office of one Wayne Swan this arvo and strongly suggested a Swan-Costello debate, face to face, would be good value for Labor if Swanny can go hard on child care, petrol prices, family budget struggles and stuff the women voters in outer mortgage belt seats will tune in to.

    The secretary kindly listened to my suggestions then took my name etc and I left. Tonight, on the BIG EARS report, they noted at the beginning that Captain Smirk had been invited to do just that, debate Swan ;

    He opted to say no and also rejected an invitation to a simple interview with BIG EARS, again, no thanks;maybe tomorrow night. Maybe he is still smarting from the dressing down he got for being a dickhead on national television during the debate last night.

    Oh yeah, I was a dick trying to advise W Swan how to run his campaign: but that’s ok, Im not running for Government or the unelected PM of this country am I. What a whoose bag Captain Smirk is outside of the big house.

  43. Labor still needs to cry poor, under-play it considerably, even bullshit it – they don’t want the horses to be scared. If this is even close to true then other things could be on. 11 long years.

    This is like wining the sem-final and walking off the field without celebration, mind on the big event.

    I hope unions, officials, Labor members can hold it together with out the office measuring mentality. 🙂

  45. Kina @ 42 and Dave @ 28 – spot on. Nothing has changed. The real tsunami in this (i.e. slow and unstoppable) is best summarised in how our mate the worm didn’t move after a few moments of J-HO talking. The punters have switched off. Roll on 24 Nov.

  46. Bolt says Labor with a majorith of 10 seats. Attacks Henderson for sitting on the fence and then criticising those that got it wrong after the election.

  49. 81
    SirEggo Says:
    Let’s be objective here (I know it’s hard to do, bear with me)
    What can the Libs do now? Let’s think from their side….

    Umm, seppuku?

    I am just trying to help, and make it as painless for them as I can. Honest.

    Oops, empty glass again. Must have a hole in it. Better drink straight from the bottle, just to be sure.

    wow

  50. I was trying to stay positive last week given the strong AC primary. But I was sure the 2PP would be 54 or less.

    LETP 83 is spot on – this poll is good mostly because it kills the Howard is comming back bull. But at 58% it actually goes even further and the talk becomes about should Howard have gone, is it too late for Costello etc etc.

    The main goal for Rudd all year has been to destroy the myth of Howard and his ability to come back from the dead. Last week’s nerves showed how potent this myth is.

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