Morgan Senate poll

I normally don’t have much time for Morgan’s Senate polling, having posited that wavering survey respondents incline to minor parties for their second choice purely to shake things up a bit. However, it may be that Morgan’s technique is improving, as their September effort finally has the Democrats down to an almost believable 2.5 per cent. The headline finding is that Pauline Hanson’s vote in Queensland has increased to 7.5 per cent from 4.5 per cent when they started tracking her in March/April. She’s still no chance of winning a seat, but it’s nonetheless interesting to speculate why her relative support might be increasing. Despite what the Morgan press release says, my back-of-envelope calculations tell me the results would be 3-2-1 in Labor’s favour in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, 3-2-1 in the Coalition’s favour in Western Australia and 4-2 to Labor in South Australia. Tasmania would see a tight contest for the final seat between Labor’s third candidate and the Greens’ second, Andrew Wilkie, with the others going two each to Labor and Liberal and one to Bob Brown. It needs to be remembered that these are the same respondents who have been providing Morgan with consistently implausible lower house leads for Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

128 thoughts on “Morgan Senate poll”

  1. Not so sure. Compulsory voting helps the incumbent: think about how few changes of govt we’ve had, state or federal, in Australia over the past 80 odd years. And how the status quo is: federal/Tory, state/Labor, with rare shifts to an alternative status quo, which then can remain entrenched.

    There’s a simple explanation: it forces the apolitical/unmotivated to vote, and in a generally stable/prosperous country, that reinforces the status quo.

    Overall, whilst I agree with the civic-mindedness reasoning behind compulsory voting, I disagree that it is a pro-leftist policy.

  2. John Ryan, I am not a ‘concern troll’. If you want to believe that… go ahead, it’s certainly your choice. But I’d appreciate it if you would cease posting such allegations.

    I have my opinions and am free to voice them here as long as William is happy to let me. Should they not be up to your high standards of what an ALP supporter is meant to think/post I give you my deepest apologies.

  3. Willy Woodget #37 you’ve made a fair point, in response to mine. But my point was mainly about the effect of repetitious advertising. What a “non-thinking” voter might answer to a pollster now may not be the same as he/she would vote after six weeks of saturation ads.

    And those who don’t think much about how they’re going to vote are, I suspect, more likely to follow how-to-vote cards on polling day.

    The polls can certainly change in the last week. The swing against Hewson in 1993 is the oft-quoted example, but the swing against Kennett to give Bracks victory was a more spectacular example. The polls were pretty accurate on election day. The suggested a dead-heat, which really did reflect the final vote. But few people would believe the polls.

  4. Back to the senate –
    i just attended a non-political social event (opening of an art exhibition) in a small country town where I was inundated by people saying that while they were going to vote for Rudd – anything to get rid of JWH- they were voting Green in the senate, many for the first time. Reasons – Rudd too similar to Howard/ Democrats no longer an option.

  5. LTEP, I understand your pessimism, since it is the electors of Australia that have voted for Howard 4 times, despite obvious reasons not to, however I maintain a hope, with a grain of salt, that his days are numbered: 37 would be just fine after 11 years of his ilk.

  6. The true indicator of an ALP victory will be the first time a journo speculates about who will be shadow treasurer under Costello. If the conversation has got to that point there will be no comming back.

    The true indicator of a Lib victory will be the first time a journo speculates about who is being blamed for it all going wrong. If it’s got to this point it will mean the ALP is either behind or even on the polls. And even ain’t good enough.

  7. I think we can leave unsubstantiated accusations of undercover trolling out of the conversation. Whether I agree with LTEP’s opinions or not I know more than a few Labor inclined voters with the same pessimistic attitudes. Unless people have an overwhelming amount of evidence to prove such is the case [i.e. as opposed to Glen just opening his (figurative) mouth] give it a rest.

    As far as “undecided” voters vis-à-vis political advertising goes, you have to understand the role of propaganda; it is very rarely, if ever, capable of forming opinions in its own right. What it works on is confirming, shaping, channeling existing dispositions into particular forms of action. The past year of polls (or actually even more of you count back through Beazley’s leadership) has indicated a great degree of antipathy in the electorate towards the Coalition. Given the respective polling positions it is equally likely that Labor’s attacks on the Coalition will work on that demonstrated disposition and, for many voters, channel it into a definite form of action. placing the Liberals last.

  8. Further to the 7:30 Report interviews tonight with Mr. Lebovic and Mr. Stirton.

    If 20% of ppl don’t make up their mind about who they’re going to vote for until the final week of the campaign… why do they poll in the intervening 156 od weeks? If it is all just up to 20% and how they ‘feel’ in the 7 days to go… what’s the point of polling at any other time?

    Mr. Lebovic didn’t make any sense to me on that point – or maybe there is a more sophisticated point he was trying to make – one that went straight over my head?

  9. If there are a chunk of undecided folk, aren’t they likely to form their opinions either

    1. In line with the general distribution of votes for those who have previously formed an opinon.
    2. More influenced how others are voting (ie, the party ahead in the polls will get a greater number of votes)

    I must admit, as a complete polling amateur, I put alot of faith in the ‘who do you think is going to win?’ questions.

    If I recall last time, the polls said Latham was near the coalition, but the ‘who do you think will win’ was very strongly against him (???)

  10. Labor supporters are generally pessimistic! We’ve had the last 11 years to get used to losing. God willing, things will be different this time.
    So I wouldn’t call LTEP a troll: I’d apply that label to the few conservative nuts on this board.

  11. Lateline Tasmania:
    Galaxy: 53-47 to Labor

    Another classic 53-47 Galaxy poll *just* when the Coalition needed it most!

    Forgive me if I am a little sceptical after their effort earlier this year.

  12. Stirton was sounding more sober, based on published polls. Sol, as noted, seems to have joined the league of unsubstantiated assertion pollsters, at least I hope. At the moment thats a ‘soft’ prediction.

  13. not much. Tony Abbott’s about to be on, watering down expectations of the PMs performance in Sunday’s debate. They’re covering internet politics at the mo.

  14. yeah, it’s good to see your suspicion about Galaxy John Ryan, I’m always kinda paranoid about that one too… always seems to move in the ‘right’ way at the right time…

    so tomorrow’s headlines ‘Howard surging to victory!’ ‘Labor in panic’ ‘Senior Labor officials reviewing ‘union’ donations’ ‘Coalition Gaining: Rudd rethinks Iraq Strategy’

  15. It’s amazing that the ABC bothers to record Lateline an hour early so that the 10,000 odd (if that) Tasmanians who watch Lateline don’t have to stay up an extra hour for three weeks in October!

  16. Okay I’m a long time reader, first time blogger (Always wanted to say soemthing like that 🙂 ). Fascinating reading all thse posts. I thought I was the only saddo that really got their rocks off on this stuff.

    Anyway I’ve got a question: Is there any analysis from the myriad of internal party proceeds which indicates what time people actually vote on polling day? Is the bulk early, mid-day or is there a mad rush in the final 3 hours? The reason I ask is that I think it’s on a knife edge and while there’s a swing on the polls will close on the east coast with 3 hours left in WA still to play. If it’s on a knife edge i.e Labour needs one more seat, then this could give voters in the West an incredible amount of power if they haven’t voted.

    The swing is noticebly less pronounced in the West and I wonder if knowing how things are in the East with 1-2 hours to go could afect things.

  17. Does not sound at all good. Admittedly, the coalition has had a strong week campaigning, and have hit low early. I fear this will feed the momentum narrative in the papers.

  18. [It’s amazing that the ABC bothers to record Lateline an hour early so that the 10,000 odd (if that) Tasmanians who watch Lateline don’t have to stay up an extra hour for three weeks in October!]

    Actually it’s done 1 hour earlier so it goes live into Tassie like the 7.30 report.

    For us Sandgropers it’s a moot point we still get it 2 hours later 🙁

  19. “Despite a quiet start to the 2007 campaign Mr Rudd’s personal stocks remain high with 51 per cent of voters preferring him as Prime Minister, compared with 43 per cent.” Galaxy.

    Looks as if most of the “movement” (statistical noise?) to the Liberals in this poll has come from the “others” column. Labor primary vote steady, and Rudd’s PPM steady.

  20. jen, have to give that song a ‘meh’. Andrew Hanson is by far the least funny bloke (maybe excluding Rove) on TV. I hate t when they give him the floor.

  21. Jen

    the Chaser’s Eulogy song perfectly summed up the pathetic ,recent “eulogising the dead and lets all share and indulge in the mourning” fad that has swept bogan Australia.

    the critics of the song, as usual, just didn’t get it.

    it was brilliant….shocking, in ya face… but brilliant

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