D-day minus 37

Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that Liberal polling conducted last month has the Prime Minister “staring at defeat in his marginal northern Sydney seat of Bennelong”, with two-party support for Labor’s Maxine McKew said to be in “the low 50s”.

Ewin Hannan and Rick Wallace of The Australian talk of Labor hopes of winning five seats in Victoria, where hostility to WorkChoices is said to be driven by the state’s “egalitarian nature, strong unions and left-wing political roots”. The five seats are Deakin, La Trobe, Corangamite, McMillan and McEwen.

• Labor yesterday made an announcement on Queensland roads funding that focused on Brisbane, committing $500 million to the Northern Link tunnel joining the Western Freeway at Toowong in Ryan to a bypass at Kelvin Grove in Brisbane, and $70 million to connecting the Gateway Motorway to the Pacific Motorway in Bonner and Moreton. The former commitment has won applause from Brisbane’s Liberal lord mayor, Campbell Newman.

• Roads are also looming as a key battleground elsewhere: Ben Packham of the Herald-Sun reports that Labor will “today unveil a $600 million plan to upgrade the Western Highway in the first election pledge aimed squarely at Victoria”. The promise does not seem too finely targeted as far as marginal seats are concerned, although a big ticket upgrade between Melton and Bacchus Marsh is not far north of Corangamite.

• Local news site the Geographe Gazette reports that “former Liberal candidate for the state seat of Collie-Wellington, Craig Carbone, has informed Nola Marino that she is within ‘inches’ of being dropped as the candidate for Forrest”. There has been much talk that Marino might be threatened by independent candidate Noel Brunning, much of it coming from disgruntled Liberals.

• Rogue candidate corner. In Leichhardt, Ian Crossland of the Nationals has been rapped on the knuckles by party leader Mark Vaile for saying the Cape York Peninsula seat was “not an electorate for a woman”, referring to Liberal candidate Charlie McKillop. In Mallee, Labor’s perennial candidate John Zigouras has told local paper the Wimmera Mail-Times that the area is “redneck country surrounded by neo-Nazis”. In Corio, Liberal candidate Angelo Kakouros has told the Geelong Advertiser that “union bosses dictate similar to the way Hitler did during the world war about how we should live our life” (though he claims he was misquoted).

• Speaking of Leichhardt, a Cairns Post poll of 310 respondents from September 22 had previously escaped my attention. It had Labor candidate Jim Turnour on 44 per cent of the primary vote, with Charlie McKillop on 37 per cent and Ian Crossland on 5 per cent. With the Greens on 10 per cent, this would suggest a comfortable win for Labor.

• Bob Brown has told the National Press Club the Greens will run fewer open tickets at this election than in 2004, meaning more preference recommendations to Labor.

• The always unmissable George Megalogenis unpacks the electoral significance of the oft-mentioned “working families” in The Australian.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

664 comments on “D-day minus 37”

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  1. Chris,

    Didn’t you admire the insoucient indifference to the plight of Australians trying to access health care?

    It looked like he was already over John Howard.

  2. Mao at least led a genuine revolution, albeit a catastrophic one. Chavez is just a standard-issue Latin American general-turned-dictator, wrapped in a red flag of convenience so that gullible western lefties like Marky Marx will fall in love with him. Because Venezuela has lots of oil, he can afford at the moment to splash money around and play the friend of the masses etc. But even lots of oil won’t prevent him from ruining the country, as many other dictators have shown. Then inevitably there will be a coup and that would be a sad setback for democracy in Latin America.

  3. Thanks a good report and i agree that Venezeula has problems in its judical, police systems and in the harming of human rights activists.. The media stuff well don’t generally agree as Venezeulas’ media is also very much privately owned and is totally against Hugo Chavez day and night… put simply what media in the world is not biased.. ours is here…
    On the amnesty report i then had a look at America…and contrary to Venezeula the amount of human rights abuses was staggering…
    Good report Adam… you are entitled to your opinion and i am mine…
    I suppose with all things you take them as you see them and hold a cynical view and yes all countries other than this and perhaps a few European and say New Zealand have immense problems in the area of governance…
    On the Greens yes i agree they do have a few wacky members who do not know what they are on about..
    Nonetheless… Bob Brown is a wise and pragmatic fellow and should be acknowledged as such…
    Good Night

  4. [Goodness me – heterosexual males present might find this candidacy worthy of comment.]

    Two words – Sophie Lee circa What’s Up Doc and “Sex” 1992 or so.

  5. Adam the problem is their has rarely been democracy in Latin America and when their has… America has marched in their with the CIA and installed a government of its liking.. Chile for example.. Guatamela… another.. you seem to willing want to criticise leftist governments but those shocking fascist bad ones are immune…
    I agree Venezeleua has plenty of oil money to splash for the masses… oh okay so its terrible to do so..
    Best let the rich have it because they know what to do with it… fair dinkum what kind of world do you want.. and yes he maybe a leading a state without free elections but please tell me is America democratic, and Britain where governments under voluntary voting get elected with only 40 percent of people voting…
    Why don’t you see the latest John Pilger film War on Democracy Adam and make up your mind..
    And on oil at least he is using it to educate the masses and this would help contrbute towards in the long run a better country…

  6. Marky you are about 20 years behind the times (like most oldguard lefties). Every country in the Americas is a democracy except Cuba, with Venezuela teetering on the brink. Even poor old Haiti managed free elections last year.

    Of course I don’t condone right-wing dictatorships either. But Chile today is a model democracy run by exemplary moderate socialists such as Michele Bachalet the current president. So this is hardly the point any more.

    Yes the US is a democracy, as will be shown in all its weirdness next year. OK they made a big mistake electing (or “electing”) Bush, but they can rectify that next year. When do the Cubans get to rectify Castro?

  7. Chile, Adam sadly has no social programs for people who are desitute.. people live in slums like India and Indonesia.. and the wealthy live like princes..
    It sadly is not a socialist government it is socialist in name only… it is a government whose constitution was amended by Pinochet and cannot be altered due to the limitations of party political system…
    This sadly is what America wanted…
    I love Americas’ democratic system Adam… so how much do you need to run for president again?
    So your style of elections is that you must have heaps and heaps of donations to run… that is not democracy that is buying votes.. and buying policies…and so its okay if less than half of population elects a government as they do in America? that is not democracy…
    and only democracies in South America.. yes they have been occurring but at what cost.. Haiti.. yep had a government willing to help the people and guess who moved in to usurp their man- America of course..

  8. When far right wing Another Liberal Party members like Adam start railing against The Greens and calling them running dogs of the Trotskyites you know the election is lost.

    Roll on E10 or E11

  9. They are a party of well-meaning idealists which is being infiltrated by marxists – specifically the Trotskyists of the SWP (or whatever they’re called now), who are past masters at this game.

    I would be interested if Adam can actually point to any candidates, elected officials or prominent organisers of the Greens of which this is true.

    I know quite a few candidates and organisers in the Victorian and Queensland Greens, and can only think of a couple at most who have ever had some socialist background, and none of them in the SWP/DSP faction.

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