The Australian has published a follow-up to its weekend Newspoll survey, showing issues rated most important and the party considered best equipped to handle them. Labor holds handsome leads on six of the eight listed issues, the exceptions being the economy and national security. Interestingly, the Coalition’s score on industrial relations has increased to 34 per cent from 31 per cent at the previous survey in June, after hovering around 30 per cent since the beginning of 2006. Industrial relations is also the one issue where there was no appreciable shift to Labor when Kevin Rudd became leader. The other issue to run against the overall trend is national security – it surged to Labor as strongly as any other when Rudd took over, but the Coalition has since recovered to levels near those of the Beazley era.
I hope Glen is protecting his nuggets 🙂
[http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/targetratetracker.htm
If the next set of inflation figures are not good, looks like Howard will have a rate rise to deal close to the poll. It’ll be interesting to see how he spins it, if it happens.]
That is becuase of the release of the Westpac survey:
“The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index of Economic Activity, released today, increased by 1.5 points in August, taking the annualised growth rate of the index to 5.6 per cent.
The index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity three to nine months into the future, remained above its long term trend of 4.3 per cent in August.
The annualised growth rate of the coincident index, meanwhile, was 4.5 per cent, above its long-term trend of 3.7 per cent.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22600743-12377,00.html
# 108 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 10:38 am
Answer the question, when did Howard release his tax policy in the election campaign in 1996?
Times have changed alright… now Howard is on the receiving end.
My parents live in Benelong & they’ve had a letter from their local member asking if there was any potholes in their area that need fixing!
No. 151
I’m far from depressed.
I’m actually laughing the ALP zealotry around here. None of you live in the real word.
John@147, I think it’s a) We Lefties are more motivated to get rid of Howare, and b), the Tories are losing, and you don’t cheer when your team’s getting thrashed.
# 120 rcandelori Says:
# 120 rcandelori Says:
We’re yet to have any substantive argument from you as to why the ALP should act any differently with its tax policy than Howard did in 1996.
No. 154
You love going over old ground. The question has been duly answered.
# 156 rcandelori Says:
The real world is feeling the very real effects of having their working conditions eroded by workchoices, and chronic underfunding in health (bulk billing and aged care, + the dramatic reduction in federal funding to hospitals) and education (enough said).
Seems the Uniting church aren’t happy.
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/17/2061756.htm?section=justin
#160 rcandelori Says:
October 17th, 2007 at 11:10 am
In your words, “how inconvenient” it must be to not have a substantive argument, and to simply try (unsuccessfully) to denigrate people for not ‘living in the real world’.
The liberal government stands for nothing but hate, fear, lies and smear. You are doing nothing more than hammering that point home.
#160
Typical circular logic from a Young Lib. Why not just answer the question? What Rudd has or has not said up to this point doesn’t somehow render irrelevent the fact that Howard ran a very similar small-target campaign against Keating in 1996. Methinks you are upset that it seems to be working for the ALP. Rudd will not be bullied by the likes of you into releasing a tax policy.
rcandelori – I think you are a Liberal staffer. Your comments indicate that you are waiting for the rabbit to pop out and for the polls to ‘inevitably’ turn for Howard.
No. 161
Chronic underfunding of health? Health spending has increased by over $30 billion in the time of the Howard Government, and is set to increase yet again in the next health agreement with the states.
The fact is that when you try to have a discussion on federal issues, people blame the Howard government for problems caused by incompetent state LABOR governments. Perhaps you should be asking the tough questions to Reba Meagher, or Iemma and the rat pack.
# 120 rcandelori Says:
We’re yet to have any substantive argument from you as to why the ALP should act any differently with its tax policy than Howard did in 1996.
Well… I’ve just read the replies again, and there’s still no answer to the simple question. At what point in the 1996 election did Howard release his tax policy?
Scared to answer the question?
156 rcandelori
I’m happy to chat about politics, the election or whatever. There’s no doubt there’s ALP zealotry around here, but please lift the debate – what do you mean by the ‘real world’? The main emphasis here is psephology – the study of polling data.
Do you believe the last 12 months of polling are incorrect or misrepresentative? (We need to start from some common ground with this discussion!!!)
I think it’s time to revisit the possibility of starting a proper electotral blog at my website. This endless round of nyah-nyah-nyah isn’t worth reading any more.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22599096-952,00.html
“The Nationals candidate for Leichhardt, Ian Crossland, said yesterday he did not think the seat was suitable for a woman.
The Liberals’ candidate is female – former Howard Government adviser Charlie McKillop.”
Vote National Party – A one way ticket back to the 19th century.
Happy if Rudd and labor said they would maintain status quo on tax until after they get in and can inspect the books before deciding on any changes to tax.
Last time Howard lost office as Fraser’s treasurer he kept secret the largest deficit in Australia’s history. The Howard government has been the most secretive, especially in the withholding and distortion of information that should be publically available.
Before any company takes over another they are allowed an detailed inspection of the books to ensure that what they are buying is as portrayed.
This should apply in politics, allow labor unlimited access to the books so that there is no nasty surpreises like before when they take government.
No. 164
How dare you accuse me of being a party stooge. The level of disingenuous commentary around here is unbelievably in favour of Rudd, so pure logic would suggest a bunch of die-hard ALP supporters, content in their delusion.
166 rcandelori Says: October 17th, 2007 at 11:16 am
Has federal health funding increased at the same rate as the states have increased funding?
Yes or no?
What percentage of hospital funding is covered by the federal government now? What was it 10 years ago?
Well? Answer the question.
127 Tory Crimes – re Janet A – I’ve seen her on TV and she is a lot more attractive than the piccies in the GG. – BUT, her column today is just crap. She says that Rudd is running a presidential style campaign but Howard won’t. Where has she been? All campaigns now are built aroung the leader so are presidential. Howard has been a one-man-band for his whole time as PM. The problem for Howard/Costello is that there isn’t a leader, there are two!!
I’d be happy to have intelligent socratic debate.
173
The Federal Government introduced the GST which has allowed states to increase spending on hospitals to record levels. Ask Peter Beattie, he never had a bad word to say about the GST. Indeed, the GST comprises around half of all state budgets and in Tasmania, its nearly two-thirds GST funded.
So before you get all narky about percentages, just realise that the GST has made it all possible.
rcandelori,
I am no die-hard ALP supporter, but I am sick of the disingenuity around here. Please clarify for me whether or not you are in the Young Libs, as I do remember you from the insidepolitics blogs where you admitted this very fact. If this is the case, then I am merely speaking the truth. If not, I apologise unreservedly. I ask with no ulterior motive.
No. 174
I’d make the same assessment of you. If the level of debate has degraded to accusing people of being stooges, then clearly you must be an ALP staffer.
“Howard’s 1996 strategy is immaterial. We are in 2007. Times have changed.” Oh, so the 17% interst rates are still relevant (18 years ago) but when Howard deliverd his tax policy isn’t some 11 years ago. Good argument.
[ This endless round of nyah-nyah-nyah isn’t worth reading any more.]
Adam,
Do you really want to spend your whole day moderating and deleting comments? Let’s face it, the next 38 days are going to be pure hell and unless you are will to devote masses of time to moderating your site it will just turn out the same. Poor William probably has RSI trying to keep up with the comments.
[The Federal Government introduced the GST which has allowed states to increase spending on hospitals to record levels.]
The states are increasing their spending share, the federal government’s share is decreasing. This was admitted by Tony Abbott 3 weeks ago. Or maybe you are accusing Abbott of lying?
[So before you get all narky about percentages, just realise that the GST has made it all possible.]
I didn’t see anyone debating the GST. Looks like you are constructing a straw man argument.
No. 178
I’m not going to answer your suppositions. At the end of the day, I’m coming on here to debate the issues and all I get in return is the same old ALP apologism, as if alternative opinion is disgraceful, as if supporting the Howard government is a criminal act.
The fact is, you can all talk about 1996, you all talk about some illusive future plan, but until I actually see some substance from Rudd, the Coalition clearly has more runs on the board.
rcandelori:
Wow you are the Devil, John Howard clone I mean.
Now I know why I am not voting for John Howard, if you are an example of what he stands for.
No 182
Abbott was telling the truth, and the reason why the states have been able to increase their spending share is because of the GST, which comprises half of all state budgets.
So no, there’s no straw man argument. The GST is inseparable from this issue, given its importance to state budgets.
[Abbott was telling the truth, ]
Good, so you agree that the states share of hospital spending is increasing, while the federal government’s share is decreasing. Even though we have a $17 billion surplus.
This demonstrates how strange the government’s priorities are, and is another excellent reason to change the federal government.
No 184
I’m still waiting for some mature argument from you AM.
I mean, labelling people as the devil? What, are we in kindergarten here?
177 candelori – The tax issues are more complicated thasn the simplistic Tory line you are spruiking here. GST is touted as a ‘States’ tax by Costello but the government include it in thier budget figures as ‘Commonwelath revenue’ which makes them look better at economics than they are. Also, GST is not the biggie, income tax is, by a huge margin. So Commonwealth expenditure from income tax is still necessary to fund the services that States have to deliver, GST is nowhere enough.
rcandelori
I dont debate with fools.
Quote:
” Even a foolish man seems wise till he opens his mouth”
No. 186
Don’t selectively quote what I said.
The GST is the reason why the states have increased their share of spending and the GST is a federally-collected tax introduced by Howard.
Ignorance of this fact is tantamount to meaningless ALP platitudes.
Candles (nice Crispy), a couple from your past? Not a stooge?
http://www2b.abc.net.au/news/forum/forum31/posts/topic10689.shtm
From: Robert Candelori 20/10/2001 14:59:00
Subject: Private Education post id: 10689
If Beazley gets into government private schools will suffer immensely and the extra money being injected into public schools won’t change the fact that most public students are trouble makers and refurbishments will only be vandalised.
http://www2b.abc.net.au/news/forum/forum31/posts/topic10443.shtm
From: Robert Candelori 19/10/2001 21:00:03
Subject: Job Dossier post id: 10443
Who would you prefer?
Name: John Howard
Born: 1939
Experience: 5 1/2 yrs Prime Minister
Achievements: repaid $58 bn of debt, introduced the GST – a fairer tax
OR
Name: Kim Beazley
Born: 1948
Experience: None
Achievements: None
Surely these “issues” polls are just a bit of fluff from the polling companies to keep in the news betwixt the polls that everyone really waits for. ie: voting intention.
There is this line run that “Managing The Economy”, is such and important indicator, but how true is it?? They Rattus Crew have been ahead on this measure forever, and STILL they are way behind in the voting intention polls.
I’d expect there to be some movement back to the Coalition in the next Newspoll, if only because the result generally seems to oscillate back and forth between limits over time anyway. Maybe that movement will be accentuated by the announced tax cuts?? Maybe its due to deliver a dreaded “outlier”!!! That would set the cat amongst the pigeons wouldn’t it!! During the campaign you can bet that people wont wait to see trends develop, even over a couple of weeks.
Still, even if it comes in at 57/43 in the ALP’s favor you can expect that the workers friends at the GG will find some way to spin this into “Team Howard Costello Rampages Into Real Contention for Election 07!!!!”
No 188
Of course, I’m not saying that the GST is bigger than income tax. But, when the GST comprises 50 percent of all state budgets, you can’t ignore its importance which is what most people are trying to do.
But I suppose times have changed…
These ‘issue’ polls are also inevitably misleading or at least partial, in that they ‘frame’ the issues in one way and not another. (They don’t let the elector frame the issues).
Clear example is how ‘national security’ gets prominence. I’m not cavilling with the term, though it’s a bit loaded. Eg ‘foreign affairs’ would prompt more support for Rudd.
Yet ‘national security’ gets a run but not the ‘Iraq War’. Yes most Australians turn away in disinterest or horror at the news from Iraq. But modest but not insignificant numbers of liberals were turned off by the deceit and fawning to Bush. Anecdotally, my family on the Sunshine Coast report a surprising depth of anger amongst old and not always pro-American conservatives over the Iraq debacle. (People who’ve known war seem to take it more seriously than others).
No. 191
So now we’re into character assassination. Those posts were made in 2001, I was young and I was immature.
Panacho, deal with the issues.
Back to the Newspoll…
Any ideas (beside conspiracy theories) on why the issue of Leadership does not have any details, apart from the fact that people consider it the 7th most important issue?
Could it be that it was a pro-ALP one, thereby putting a dent in the whole Coalition arguement about the RIGHT leadership? Does anyone have access to (or a link to) the previous issues poll to see how it rated before?
rcandelori:
Now you have been exposed, it must be time to for you go and harass another blog.
#183
“as if alternative opinion is disgraceful, as if supporting the Howard government is a criminal act”
I think this is taking it too far. I for one acknowledge that in a healthy democracy there will be a plethora of views on an issue. Forums like this exist for these to be discussed and debated in a thoughtful and considerate manner. If people are making considered criticism of Howard’s policies, then the way for a Government supporter to answer them is in an equally considered way. This is the crux of good democracy.
If you think there is a pro-ALP bent in these blogs, then I suggest you look at Andrew Bolt’s blog, where the situation is reversed. The nastiness against Rudd in that blog has doubled since the election was called. In those blogs, Rudd is the devil incarnate who will absolutely destroy this country. So you see, blogs are polarised in this manner.
No need to take it personally. By the way, I also think it is legitimate to question a blogger’s involvement in a party: this way, their arguments can be evaluated as to whether they are simply “towing the party line” or otherwise. Whether that person chooses to answer the charge that they are a party rep or not is up to them, and this is perfectly fine: You chose not to answer, and there is no problem with that, but why shout down the question itself as an insult?
191 – candelori maybe hasn’t heard of Google? good one, gotcha
Re 196
Nothing has changed then, really the way you are acting, you are doing Labour a favour by turning people against the Libs.
Good work.
63 isn’t young