The Australian has published a follow-up to its weekend Newspoll survey, showing issues rated most important and the party considered best equipped to handle them. Labor holds handsome leads on six of the eight listed issues, the exceptions being the economy and national security. Interestingly, the Coalition’s score on industrial relations has increased to 34 per cent from 31 per cent at the previous survey in June, after hovering around 30 per cent since the beginning of 2006. Industrial relations is also the one issue where there was no appreciable shift to Labor when Kevin Rudd became leader. The other issue to run against the overall trend is national security – it surged to Labor as strongly as any other when Rudd took over, but the Coalition has since recovered to levels near those of the Beazley era.
I live in Mitchell (as safe a lib seat as there is) and received a letter from Alex Hawke yesterday. It was the usual experience vs unions rubbish, 70% union bosses, $1 trillion dollar economy but he also tacked on that if he was elected he would:
1. Crack down on hoons and vandals so local families can live in safe and secure neighbourhoods (yeah, all those hoons at Hillsong and at the Piazza at Castle Hill!!)
2. Improve local school facilities and services so our children can etc. etc. ( a state function me thinks)
3. Make local roads safer by IDing required upgrades and fixing local blackspots (a council and state function as well, I thought).
Then he encloses as a post-script a postal vote form.
Now, I read yesterday a few lib candidates were sending these things around, but in Mitchell? And hitting on issues like these? Is this a nationwide postal campaign which just lists the same issues everywhere?
Just seems a bit strange to me – why would they be hitting those points?
Rudd not turning up for Howard’s debate on Sunday would be very risky so Rudd will be there. Rudd will cream Howard as the rodent is not a good debater (both Beazley and Latham beat him). Rudd can still accuse Howard of cowardice by continuing to call for a second or third debate during the campaign. BTW, I think the ‘worm’ is going to trouble Howard. People want to see it during the debate, so Howard will look arrogant if he refuses to have it.
Burgey, the Liberal Party strategists have highlighted that at this election they will be running local campaigns on top of the national campaign. This is why we’re getting flushed with letters explaining the local members’ concerned about graffiti and ‘hoons’.
They’re hoping people forget they’re not areas of federal responsibility and that individual members have next to no control over these issues in any case. To me, it seems lame, but obviously C/T have advised them to run with this.
These headlines by the News Limited papers and the approach by the Coalition are designed to panic the ALP. If you read below the headlines there is nothing in it. If you look at the numbers Newspoll and Morgan Poll (issues poll) are very good for the ALP.
It appears that the tactics are working on a few ALP supporters here. However, Kevin and his supporters have taken their time on nearly every issue that has been thrown at them this year and come out on top. This little period will be no exception.
The new tax policy won’t do much more than give some confidence to those who were already planning to vote for the coalition. IMHO, it is not much of a vote changer.
And the reason for this is that the hype created in the media about it simply fails to match the ACTUAL amount of pork. The most common reaction that I am hearing, and I have been holidaying on the NSW north coast and now back down here in Melbourne where I live, is that receiving twenty or thirty dollars more per week is virtually pointless as it will probably be eaten up by increasing costs of living and higher interest rates by the time it all comes fully into effect in a few years time. In short, people don’t think it will help them much at all.
The media response has been overdone, and I actually suspect that a LOT of Australians realise this. People do want tax cuts. But they want BIG cuts that make an appreciable difference to their standard of living, especially during an era where the cost of living seems to be going up so rapidly.
So, just like the tax cuts in the May budget, when the media also overcooked their positive response, most voters will be cynical.
But one additional thing to come out of this is that the disconnect between Howard’s actual policy and the media hype around it might actually serve to further highlight the pro-Howard bias in much of the media that has already become widely known around many segments of the population. This will further increase the level of cynicism about reports of Howard, where anything positive is quickly dismissed, which I suspect has been happening all year anyway.
New Headline:”Australian Voters Give Fourth Estate The Bird.”
Admittedly, Labor have an “unfair” advantage / edge over Coalition when releasing their tax plan after Coalition 🙂
I think Howard is panicked now. He pushed so hard to force Labor rushing out a “premature” tax plan.
Labor will take time to study Howard tax plan and will put forward their version, presumably / expected to be superior to Howard’s.
Until that time, we will see Howard and Costello jump up and down like hell 🙂
The people who are criticising the tax cut proposal are the same people who’ll denigrate the government as the highest taxing in history.
Make up your mind. The hypocrisy is astonishing.
Burgey post 51 –
I live in Boothby in Adelaide and received similar sh&t from Andrew Southcott the sitting Liberal member. Basically mine sounds the same as what you received…however there was one about securing water supply for families (buggar people who aren’t in families -they can dehydrate) then the next 2 were improving local roads and crackdown on local hoons by installing CCTV cameras in “local crime hotspots” so “families” can live free from fear…again stuff those who aren’t in a family they can be bashed to death!!!! Plus all the trash about unions & inexperience. This is from a local member who is utterly useless…
Fire Maker 54
You beat me to it. The worst thing Labor and its supporters can do now is panic.
rcandelori,
Not many people are criticising the tax cuts themselves (at least, I’m not). What we’re criticising is Howard + Costello + half the MSM jumping up and down demanding Rudd release his tax policy immediately, as if the Coalition had a god-given right to tell Labor when they have to release their policies.
For the record, I think the tax cuts are good, but they should have focussed more on cutting company tax and providing incentives for R+D to take place in Australia.
“These headlines by the News Limited papers and the approach by the Coalition are designed to panic the ALP. ”
Firemaker, I agree. It is an attempt to create momentum for the coalition and to give Labor the jitters, but the hype is already sounding hollow. With just one bad poll for Howard, the whole exercise simply collapses.
I’m not suggesting they have a god-given right to demand ALP policies be released immediately, but one has to wonder why something as essential as tax policy, has taken over 10 months to release. The public are entitled to know, they’ve heard enough dodging from Rudd – we’re at the business end of the election cycle now. Substance counts, and so far, the Coalition has the runs on the board.
rcandelori,
Simple reason – the government has had access to the updated budget figures for weeks now and so could fine-tune their tax policy to fit accordingly. Labor has had access to these updated numbers for 2 days. It would have been irresponsible for them (and the Coalition would have said so) to release their tax policy before these numbers came out.
I don’t think it would be unfair for Labor to spend a couple more days analysing these numbers before releasing their tax policy, would you?
Howard in 1996 did not release his tax policy until three weeks into the election campaign. He bolted in.
The Age Polls:
ALP land package
Do you think Labor’s housing plan is a vote-winner?
Yes – 71%
No – 29%
Tax cuts : Will Peter Costello’s announcement of tax cuts worth $34 billion change your vote?
Yes – 15%
No – 85%
Total Votes: 4023 Poll date: 15/10/07
http://www.theage.com.au/polls/results.html
It is the same old story people are no longer listening to John Howard even if he comes up with a good policy.
Howards time is past the public are over him.
Does anyone seriously think all the voters out there are chomping at the bit to hear about tax policy. Talk about boring.
Tax cuts are good headlines, but noone really cares about the detail.
AM, compare those results to the results on the news.com.au website.
Online polls are not to be believed.
I don’t know whether someone has mentioned this already, but at the end of the Today Show on Ch. 9 this morning, they gave the results of their morning poll on whether the worm should be used in the debate. The poll was a narrow win for the pro-wormers.
Anyway, the poll would be irrelevant EXCEPT they said that on the basis of that poll the station manager (sorry, forgot his official title) had decided that they will be using the worm during Sunday’s debate.
Can the PM stop them using it if they aren’t the “official” broadcaster (which is presumably Sky for this debate)?
Well I don’t think you can be more blatant in electioneering for the Government than that. It has been apparent Labor has had something because they have been refering to what they intend in it. YET the editorial prefers to try and denigrate Labor so it can push up Howard – and they invent their own truth. Mitchell ought to be ashamed of himself. I think after this election the GG needs to be publically bought to account. These are some of the other things that need to be fixed in this country.
Assuming (as Shanahan does) that people are lying when they list economy and national security down the order of saliency, the best that could have been spun out of this poll is that small to modest changes in them had no effect on voting intentions.
One explanation for this is that the polls don’t measure intensity either – people might think neither party has much control over economy and external risks, or have v.similar policies. But when asked for an answer by a polite sounding stranger, the non-partisan will go with the stereotypical answer. Similarly on the environment/water, where Labor’s lead is thin, though in truth much larger given the Greens flow on to Labor ahead of the Coalition.
63 – rcandelori and others here should take a cold shower. Labor couldn’t put out a tax policy at the same time as the Libs as Labor aren’t the government (yet). Costello had access to the current budget figures from Traeasury, Labor did not. rudd will presnt his tax policy when he has (responsibly) assessed the budget figures. Who’s panicking? Howard, I’d say. Labor is sitting with a 12% lead in the polls at the start of an election campaign.
Whether Rudd releases a tax policy now, next week, or the week after is immaterial. It will be released in the next few weeks. So, who the hell cares, other than Howard, Costello, and rcandelori?
Personally, I’m quite content watching the two-headed Prime Ministerial monster jumping up and down trying to bully Rudd into a corner. It just reinforces the impression of Howard as mean and tricky…
I got exactly the same blurb letter in Higgins about the CCTV rubish. Maybe all the new cameras can be linked up to Canbera so the prime minister cankeep an eye on everyone. They could install speakers too. You could hear (in a Howard voice) “Hey cut that out, you’ve been a bad citizen, go to room 101 Winston”.
Macaroni, they are the highest taxing government in history 28% of GDP, it is a fact, and irelevant if we like it or not.
rcandelori – Why would they? It plays into Howard’s hands if they do, they look panicked and possibly release a half baked policy. Strategically, the right thing to do is hold out. Rudd has tapped into an anti-politician mood, and the longer Howard and Costello jump around demanding a tax policy the sillier the two of them will look.
Fairfax papers are not as bias as News Com papers and so, are more reliable.
I thought I was the eternal Labor pessimist: LTEP has stolen my thunder.
I wouldn’t even piss on the Government Gazette these days. It’s nothing more than a propoganda sheet for the Rodent. Uncle Rupert obviously has put the call out to back the Howard government, and the likes of the editorial staff and Shanahan are happily complying.
The next lot of polls will tell the story. If there’s no swing back to the government, I suspect a lot of Liberals will be in a panic.
Rudd and Labor have to hold their nerve, don’t dance to Howard/Smirky’s tune, put out the tax policy when they are good and ready. And, if Rudd makes a virtue of spending more of the 34 billion on health/education/infastructure spending/nation building, that’ll hold him in good stead.
Surely it will be possible to set up a “worm” via the internet to measure people’s reaction to how the debaters go, no-matter what Howard wants???
swing lowe,
They’ve had access to budget figures for months, even if they are not the absolute latest figures.
In any event, we haven’t heard the philosophy of the policy –> whether it believes in tax cuts for all, or only for the poor, or whatever.
In the end, after 10 months, Rudd is being a little prescious when he asks for more time whilst labelling the government arrogant and out of touch. The only people being arrogant and out of touch is the ALP.
And when did Howard release his tax policy in 1996? At a time that suited him, which from memory was two seeks before polling day. This is just childish political point-scoring. I don’t blame Howard for doing it, he’s just playing the political game. I do blame the Murdoch press for uncritically echoing Howard’s line, which shows gross political bias (not surprising really)
For all you dopey Liberals. How come, if Howard and Costello knew of the true state of the economy, the release of this current tax package, why wasn’t it done back at the budget? The budget is the most appropriate time for a tax package and they could have done it then – but didn’t.
“rcandelori” are you from Crosby and Textor?
Its just that you sound like them.
And Rudd hasn’t “asked for more time.” Don’t tell lies. He has says he will release his tax policy when he decides to release it.
Shanahan and the Oz are just plain shameless!
The newspoll figures rated issues in the order of importance determined by surveyed voters. Of the nine issues, Health/Medicare, Water planning, Education and the Environment comprised the top four. On those top four issues, Labor lead the coalition by 14,4,20 and 14 points respectively. Despite these FACTS, the Australian insists that the P.Ms stocks are on the rise – next week’s special investigation by the Australian……..”Can a full head of hair confuse decision-making, putting our great nation at risk of terrorist attack?” A panel of emininently bald Australians conservatives discuss the powerful decision-making advantage held by our shiny-headed P.M.
Recent surveys indicate that Australians are concerned about a range of issues impacting their children’s future – we here at The Australian understand these concerns which is why we have concluded that we will decide which issues are of concern to Australian voters and the manner in which those concerns are expressed.
“even if they are not the absolute latest figures.” So their modelling would be wrong? Riiiiight…
Next issue please.
You can’t release a tax policy of any note unless you have the up to date figures and Labor has only just received them. They will release their policy when they are good and ready. nothing says they have to do otherwise.
As for the nervous nellies and negative thinkers, by all means worry yourselves sick but at least do it on factual well thought out evidence rather than the flimsy arguments presented here.
The GG has been running its anti Labor campaign all year and we know how influentila that has been. For heaven sake be like the vast majority of the reading public and don’t read the bloody thing.
rcandelori,
Rudd’s philosophy for his policy is outlined here:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22600616-5013871,00.html
And for the rest of you, I urge you all to take part in this survey, so The Oz may understand that not everyone in this country are Coalition-voters:
http://polling.nationalforum.com.au/index.php?sid=13&lang=en
The polls are going to all over the place for the next few weeks.
Yes the next Newspoll might have ALP 54 to Coalition 46 but the next after that could well be 56-44 or even 57-43. Check out how the polls went in previous times just before the election. They yo-yoed up and down. Chances are the final result will be close but more likely 52.5 ALP to 47.5% Coalition than the other way around.
influential
No. 82
Why is it that because someone shows a modicum of difference in terms of their political views, they are accused as some sort of stooge for the Liberal party?
The way all of you expound such a nauseating level of love for Rudd, can hardly be labelled fair and balanced. The hypocrisy and double standards continue.
rcandelori
A bit better than you’re posting in the other thread, but still…
The government has plenty of substance, you’re right.
12 years of substance.
2-3 days of debatable substance cannot counter what is already on the table.
If both sides started from the same starting point – your point might be arguable, but turning fundamentalist with 6 weeks to go?
Given the public reaction yesterday, and the reaction to the last (bigger) tax cut, why do you think tax policy is essential?
Given the only data released comparing pre and post AWA wages please compare and contrast the monetary values with those proposed in the tax cuts?
rcandelori , saurely economic vandals can be the Highest Taxing Government in the History of Australia and give unfair tax cuts biased to the rich at the same time.
LOL. An internet worm? Don’t let one of those onto your computer, or it will screw up more than just your opinions.
Seriously though, I would have thought that Ch 9 could have their own “audience” watching with the worm. I suspect the PM only has control over what happens in the debating hall, and he can stipulate that there be no worm machines. But I can’t see that he would be able to make rules about how individual stations broadcast it… so if they want to set up their own worm, why not?
Plus, Channel 9 is probably pretty annoyed that they got shafted for Sky TV this time around. I suspect they’ll do their best to get a worm up and running just to piss off Howard. It will deliver better ratings too… I know which station I’ll be watching if one has the worm and another doesn’t.
PM reported last night that Labor had picked up its 200 tickets for Sunday’s debate. Sounds to me like they are going despite the bravado for last nights TV.
If they are going to the debate they wont be going without a tax policy in place. Of course JWH didnt release his tax policy in 1996 – he was a known commodity and didnt need to. KR is liked as is shown by the polls but he does need to fill in a few gaps – and he has made an issue of his own economic credibility. It will be very damaging for him if he blows the tax policy debate.
I would love to be a fly on the wall in KR central. Which way does he jump? He should have just come out and matched them immediately – if he lets it linger it just gives JWH traction and he looks silly if he takes 2 weeks to say – me too.
Far be it for me to advise all those clever people in Rudd’s office but here are a couple of election winners. First, promise to reduce HECS – this will win the Gen Y vote and their boomer parents vote too. Second, make child care costs tax deductable – this is the hot button issue for ‘working families’.
As I suspected, the tax cuts have slipped out of the news very rapidly… not much bang for buck at all for 34 billion dollars.
If the Libs are hoping for a jump in the opinion polls as a result of this I really don’t think it’s going to happen. I’m predicting the next Newspoll will be the same as all the others which have gone before: 55+ for Labor.
The poll is misleading. Even though it has IR as the lowest concern at 49% it is the issue most likely to affect votes at the end of the day simply because of the draconian nature of WorkChoices and its real impact on people [not just imagined].
The Morgan poll I think is much more revealing as it points to the issues that people genuinely feel concern about. After the election, when people are in power and can do things – what really worries you? 21% say LNP on IR AND 23% say Labor on the Economy. Doesn’t seem like a very high level of concern on these issues and, they balance out.
People when it comes down to it are not really concerned so much about Labor and the economy. They say the Govt is better at it, not that Labor can’t hack it. The same goes with Security. Really, Labor still needs to inform the public about the source of our economic prosperity – it will work. People will listen because they can see the effects right now – China, resources boome etc – it all falls into place.
The only two areas where the Govt is ahead are the ones caused by encumbancy. That it is behind in all other areas should be disturbing as it is a commentary/report card on their performance to date. The voters are saying the Govt hasn’t been good at these things and, probably Labor would be better.
[Seriously though, I would have thought that Ch 9 could have their own “audience†watching with the worm. I suspect the PM only has control over what happens in the debating hall, and he can stipulate that there be no worm machines. But I can’t see that he would be able to make rules about how individual stations broadcast it… so if they want to set up their own worm, why not?]
Sorry, not that kind of worm!
Nope, Howard has insisted that in order to be provided with a feed of the debate, broadcasters have to agree to not to set up any kind of audience reaction-measuring system (“worm”)
rcandelor – if you don’t like it here …..
rcandelori:
Your are welcome to your opinion, but it is a load of rubbish and doesnt stand up to scrutiny.