Taverner: 59-41 in NSW and Victoria

Possum Comitatus informs us of a Taverner poll to be published in tomorrow’s Sun-Herald which will show Labor leading 59-41 in New South Wales and Victoria, and of a Galaxy poll to be published on Monday bringing the Coalition bad news from marginal seats. Taverner conducted electorate-level polling from New South Wales during the 2004 campaign, which proved fairly accurate.

UPDATE: Sun-Herald coverage now available, complete with the remarkable finding that Labor leads 73-27 among 18-29 year olds. No indication of sample size that I can see. While you’re there, have a look at their nifty graphic showing the size of Labor’s majorities as indicated by monthly ACNielsen polling results since June.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

398 comments on “Taverner: 59-41 in NSW and Victoria”

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  1. Possum Comitatus Says:

    now its fairly obvious that something is happening down there.There’s now too much polling around saying the same thing…. big swings.

    Howard has the internal polling, Howard made the reconciliation speech. Corrangamitte may fall, but I think Kooyong will definitely fall. I think Howard has identified this and thus the last minute attempt to lurch back to the center. The leafy suburbs of Melbourne are not populated by rednecks.

  2. One other thought while Glen is not here to complain about hubris:

    I remember from the 1972 election TV coverage on the ABC that in the final wrap-up, with credits etc., they played the “It’s Time’ theme. Went down a treat amongst us jubilant fans.

    Any chance they might do that Greens’ “Been a long time Bennelong Prime Minister” song. It’s a beauty.

  4. Call the Election #198 – Thanks for the welcome! I’m intrigued by Possum wondering what is going on in Victoria regarding the ‘odd’ data he’s getting. It appears to be coming from ‘safe’ lib seats which makes me wonder if small ‘l’ liberals might be out to reclaim their party since all their other efforts have failed (The Not Happy John, campaign for instance.) A lot of them will possibly go to the greens or independents I feel. Joel Fitzgibbon is MP for this seat and it is very safe for Labor, therefore I don’t get much feed back around here as to how people feel about Howard. That is why I have been trawling the blogs and reading responses to rusted on right wing journos. I just hope voters don’t do a hard right turn when they get to the ballot box!

  5. I think the battle for the soul of the Liberal Party will not happen till they are in Opposition. At the moment they have hitched their fortunes to Howard, even as he looks set to take them down with him. After an election defeat, the blood will flow as we see many Howard-loyalists leave, either thanks to the will of the voters, or voluntarily rather than face being in opposition.

    So with many of the Howard inner-core gone, who would be left? He has relentlessly driven out most moderates, to make the Party in his own image. It will be only a small rump, out of power in every level of government except local. Bitter and looking for a brawl. (It is said the conservatives do not “do” opposition well).

    If they had any sense they would see that the Centre is where voter sentiment is – and they would head back there, having learned a painful lesson from the Howard years.

    But will that happen? I’m thinking the right wing extremists residual in the surly rump will ignore the warnings of the election and continue taking the Party to the outskirts. A future of possibly decades of irrelevance awaits the Party I suspect.

  6. I suspect it will take the Libs a good 2 or 3 election thumpings before they recalibrate towards the centre.
    Should the Coalition lose this year, after a long period of Howard being mythologised as a political genius, the Libs will interpret the result with disbelief, as an abberation. Abbott’s comments about voters ‘sleepwalking’ are already a suggestion of this. The Libs will expect this abberation to be corrected at a likely double dissolution election. A pliant media will reinforce this message.

  7. Rx #205 I agree that the moderates only hope of reclaiming their party is from opposition and I have come to the conclusion that that is what is happening out in the electorate. I also think that Howard knows where his biggest problem lies and why he’s acting like a terrified rabbit.

  8. Sky News reports that the GG and his wife have left for church and that JH is expected to call in 90 minutes to 2 hours giving the GG time to return from church.

  9. Mark Reilly on Weekend Sunrise (coming from Perth) likening Howard to to the poms winning the Rugby and using the underdog status shows how out of touch the MSM are.

  10. Hmm….

    [Federal Attorney-General Philip Ruddock says any monitoring of euthanasia workshops run by Dr Philip Nitschke is an issue for his department.

    Mr Ruddock has rejected suggestions by the euthanasia campaigner that his workshops are being unfairly targeted because he is challenging the Melbourne seat of the Immigration Minister, Kevin Andrews.

    Dr Nitschke, who is running as an independent, says the Attorney-General’s department wrote to him on Friday to say the content of his workshops might breach classification laws, and Victoria Police had been alerted.

    But Mr Ruddock says there has been no political interference]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/14/2058977.htm?section=justin

  11. news.com.au had the headline “10 am: Howard on his way to see GG” in its breaking news section. It didn’t link to anything though. I would imagine that the headline went up a little early perhaps. Since been taken down.

    I now realise why Australian elections are held on a Saturday – so that all f us howard haters can celebrate and NOT have to take a day off work the next day – excepting those that need extended celebrations of course…

  13. It is really interesting, if I am right just how blind the hacks of the right are. Piers rant this morning if it matters at all, would I think work for Rudd not against him. Just another personal attack. If a lefty had been writing about howard he would just have change the name rudd in the article to howard and the only difference would be that most Australians would already think all this about Howard I tried to post this on the tele site but it would not let me.
    “Piers,you give yourself away in the first paragraph ‘Once a friend’ Give us a break– You always refered to him as a lightweight pixy on Insiders etc.
    If he dined with you, it was only to use you. Have you just worked this out. Do you really think John Howard will waste a minute on you once he is out of office. Nor I guess you him.(though the invites would always have been one way) You are just a common type A one track hack. Thats why either side can use you well. They no there will never be any behaviour beyond type”.

  14. I’ve been to schoolies as a volunteer five times. A lot of my friends will be there again this year. I mentioned it because there would be a number of interesting things about an election at that time. Not that are likely to affect results, but to make things interesting.

    Victor Harbor has a median age of about 54, easily the oldest in SA. Except for a few days when over 15,000 schoolies are in town, possibly pushing that median down to 19.

    Most schoolies are 18, hence voting for the first time. And a lot of them, having just had final exams, would have been too busy to vote beforehand.

    Schoolies typically are up and about until the early hours of the morning, and asleep for much of the day. So I’m imagining the headache at the polling booths nearest the caravan parks as all the kids come in at 2-6pm, some a bit hung over, to vote, not sure if they are on the roll…

  16. Scotty (212)
    Sorry your page was not found …
    Cant link to it !
    (We could not find the page you requested. This is often because older content has been removed from our site. In most cases you can still find the item via our archive service, News Store, where you can buy articles for a small fee.)

  17. Yet again, this time on Sunday Sunrise, Mike Reilly says the ALP need to win 17 seats – where does this crap about 17 seats come from, they already have 60! How stupid/dumb is our media? In reality, they only really need to get to 75 (15 seats to be gained) to be the government. Obviously, 76 is better but 75 will do it.

  20. I read on a different Fairfax page that the poll was 1000 electors, and limited to Sydney and Melbourne. Is that right? If so it explains the higher than average results for Labor.

  22. Nelson came across as subdued, even defeated, on Insiders.

    Howard must have told his troops not to come across as cocky; instead they’re now coming across as defeated.

  23. Well he hasn’t called it yet, BrissyRod, but it looks like the 24th.

    I already have 2 friends lined up to provide SMS updates during the evening- still, it will be unpleasant to be distracted all evening on what promises to be enjoyable occasion.

    Never mind.

  26. There’s something stunning about a former head of the Australian Medical Association lamenting about how many union officials are on the Labor front bench.

  28. Oakes is getting in to Dolly about Iraq, and the bullguano is thick.

    “I don’t even know what LtGen Sanchez is doing now, but I have been there recently and I know ….” says Dolly.

  29. Just dropped Matt for soccer training, on the way back drove along Bondi Rd, there are plenty of anti Turnbull posters on lamposts, dodgy pic of Turnbull & JHo with slash across some green saying Turnbull refuses to ratify Kyoto and orange saying Turnbull voted 23 times for workchoices hurtng working families.
    It’s first time I’ve seen posters on lamposts in Wentworth.

    Also re those young and old and in-betweens who are unable to get to vote on the day can vote beforehand, I made a post earlier re this topic
    will update PrePoll info – gotta go and pick him up, will be tuned in to ABC in car.

  33. Oil Nelson warned us on Insiders this morning that if we vote for Rudd we risk losing our homes. Barry Cassidy was very good in questioning him in fact.

    Also, Matt Price has made me swear plenty of times reading his columns in the past but I do wish him a speedy recovery from his illness.

  34. god i wish he would get on with it so i can watch the league test and the moto gp without having to continualy flick over to see if the silly old bugger has finaly done done decent thing.

  37. Landeryou’s article is worth the read, if only for this quote:

    “John Howard is going to go down like a dead dog on a freeway. That’s inevitable probably.”

    The inevitable probability, eh?

    Indeed ….

  42. Wasn’t watching the PMs car go through the gates simply riveting viewing.

    He didn’t even moon the gathering crowd.Poor form on the entertainment front really.

    Since he’s going to need stunts to get traction in the campaign, he may as well have started of with a doozy.

  46. Wasn’t watching the PMs car go through the gates simply riveting viewing.

    He didn’t even moon the gathering crowd.Poor form on the entertainment front really.

    Since he’s going to need stunts to get traction in the campaign, he may as well have started of with a doozy.

    A few wheelies and burnouts wouldn’t have gone astray – going for that bogan vote.

  49. If the Libs lose just wait for Downer’s lecture on how ungrateful we all are to a government they gave us everything, blah, blah, blah.

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