Taverner: 59-41 in NSW and Victoria

Possum Comitatus informs us of a Taverner poll to be published in tomorrow’s Sun-Herald which will show Labor leading 59-41 in New South Wales and Victoria, and of a Galaxy poll to be published on Monday bringing the Coalition bad news from marginal seats. Taverner conducted electorate-level polling from New South Wales during the 2004 campaign, which proved fairly accurate.

UPDATE: Sun-Herald coverage now available, complete with the remarkable finding that Labor leads 73-27 among 18-29 year olds. No indication of sample size that I can see. While you’re there, have a look at their nifty graphic showing the size of Labor’s majorities as indicated by monthly ACNielsen polling results since June.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

398 comments on “Taverner: 59-41 in NSW and Victoria”

  1. The greatest thing about announcing the election is that many of the hacks currently in Canberra have just lost their jobs permanently

  2. So which state govenor is currently out of the country, thus forcing the rolls to stay open until Friday? I assumed the rolls were going to close on Monday or Tuesday.

  3. Albert #334 – I imagine that the ALP is sitting on their best war chest for some time and have been expecting a long campaign. Hence the K-RUD playing me-tooism for the last couple of weeks. I expect that the ALP will put the odd heavy hit or two in over the next few days and see how they go down and see if they can bring the Libs out of their corner. Then their will be an eerie quite over week two.

    The real campaign will start at the end of week two in time for weekend polling. The it will be game on.

    It seems pretty obvious that the Libs don’t have a strategy yet. It will be interesting to see if they can conjure one in the next two weeks.

  4. I suspect Howard kept the rolls open by not having the writs issued until later in the week so that he didn’t have to face a day of “why are you disenfranchising people?”. That would have ruined his message.

  5. I love this quote:

    “The right leadership is a group of men and women who will govern for all Australians and who will not be beholden to a narrow section of the Australian community”

    Exclusive brethren
    Big Business
    Fossil fuel industry
    Murdoch
    GW Bush (a narrow section of the US community).

  6. Good afternoon tragics and welcome to the campaign.

    I think we’re all a bit too worked up, not to say one-sided, to be objective analysts of how the punters will see this speech. No doubt there’ll be a snap opinion poll soon. This will be the big test for The Narrowing theory. Will the voters suddenly say “OMG Labor is a trade union based party! We never knew that!”? Well, maybe. We’ll soon find out.

  7. “The right leadership is a group of men and women who will govern for all Australians and who will not be beholden to a narrow section of the Australian community”

    Gobsmakcing stuff! How could even the lying rodent have said that with a straight face??

  8. JWH trotted out the same ole same ole stuff in his speech, except for 2 distinctions–

    The first was acknowledgement that some Australians are not getting their share of the benefit of a booming economy-

    Of course he avoided answering questions asking him to name those struggling sectors [wouldn’t be people being affected by WORKCHOICES would it ?]…should be interesting what he does to try and woo back those wet liberals and Howard battlers..income tax deductions perhaps ?

    The second was a veiled hair brained wild swing to the left on Indigenous Affairs which is no wedge and will win no votes.

    His “many plans about Australia’s future” rhetoric is way too late, he is already stuck with the old and tired and backward image: nothing he does will turn that around.

    Leadership ? Ha, people will not want to vote in a PM who is retiring with an unknown and unpopular Peter Costello to follow- I hope he does a cf our leadership to theirs thing because it will give Rudd a dog whistle…Who is going to be PM: Costello is as unknown and suspect as a PM as Rudd in terms of experience as a PM.

    Meantime, the bloody election date puts me in Melbourne at my brothers 50th instead of hosting a party in Rudd’s electorate- Damn it. Thats ok, I can get a cab to Higgins at 3am and blow a trumpet up and down Costello land and get arrested for disturbing the peace and drinking too much…works for me.

  9. 255
    Shiftaling Says:
    October 14th, 2007 at 11:12 am
    I’m getting married on the 24th – if the Duck (Howard, that is) diddles me out of an election night party I’ll be spitting chips.

    Gee, that isn”t very complimentary to your partner! I would have thoght a bit of duck shooting would add spice to the chips.

  10. Pretty crap performance from Howard. Usual slimey disingenuous rubbish.

    At least the Coalition will have to start paying for their ads now.

  11. 358
    Fagin Says:
    October 14th, 2007 at 12:36 pm
    Interesting that a show about dung beetles (ABC NSW) followed the Howard media conference…

    Fagin, its asham the show wasnt a doc about rodents!!!

  12. Bluebottle blowing a trumpet at 3am 24 November on the corner of Toorak Rd and Chapel St

    ‘Ill like to see that’

    ‘I can’t find my pencil, now where did I leave my pencil’

  13. Howard is going to win the election in a landslide, you wait and see!!!

    My prediction is coalition to have 120 seats to Labors 30!!!

  14. So far this year Howard’s desperate and ineffective thrashing around for a wedge issue has only firmed up the poll where they now stand.

    If we went back to the start of the year was there anything else Howard could have done (other than hand overt to Costello).

    He could of:

    1) Eaten humbe pie and Ratified Koyto and phased withdrawal from Iraq.
    2) Eat more pie and admitted a mistake and overturned work choicies.
    3) Ran what looked like a sain govt.

    He’s done none of these things, now issues like Iraq, human rights nd the enviroment have the DWs against him, nochoices has Kath and Kim against him.

    To top it off we’ve had 10 months of insane govt which everyone is sick off.

    The truth is, he would have never do 1 or 2 – ironically it is on his most egregious mistakes that he adopts a principled stand.

  15. I thought he looked old and stressed – puffing and snorting like an old bull.

    I’m overseas on the 24th, so i’ll miss out on the party. Damn!!!

  16. Well now we await the “Narrowing”. I’d expect the coalition to start with a little bit of momentum but it could fade quite quickly. The election dynamic could well favour ALP.

    – the ALP can now start their attack without fear of a govt funded counter attack or a some wedge legislation forced through parliment.
    – the tax payer funded ads should now be turned off
    – Both Howard and Rudd look tired but I expect Rudd to hold up better – when Rudd has got in the spot light (recall APEC) it has worked well for him.

    The head says a 54/46 2PP and a comfortable majority. The heart says – maintain the fight it ain’t over.

  17. Oh the joy of it all. To know that I only have to endure Howard for another 6 weeks and then he will be consigned to the dustbin and out of my life for ever. I am delirious. 🙂

  18. Howard accuses Rudd of shifting responsibility? Now that IS rich!

    AWB – Can’t recall.

    WMD – Intelligence was false.

    C.Overboard – Wasn’t told.

    Interest rate rises – Blame the states.

    The buck has never stopped with John Howard. What a hypocrite!

  19. By the way – did anyone hear Alexander earlier revealing the shocking news that if Labour wins there will be nothing but labor govt’s across the board?
    Thank God somebody realised in time for the election, as obviously 60% of people have been not aware of this subtlety when being polled and have been giving the wrong answer.
    oh, and did you know that nearly all the Labour leaders are union Hacks???
    Bet you didn’t or we wouldn’t have had these poll results for the past 11 months.
    If only people would listen…

  20. I was listening to ABC Radio in the hope finally of the announcement. In between crosses to Canberra to see what was happening they interviewed a producer of a play called “Dead Horse”.

    Somehow it appeared to be impeccable timing and programming.

  21. El Rodente has ruled for four thousand three hundred days (moe ~ 1%), and cetibus paribus, which of course things never are, he has about fourty nights free board and lodging at our expense as King Kirribilli Coconut, before we do what Australians are very good at doing, which is to tell people who are more than a bit up themselves, like KK Coconut, to drop off.

    ——————————————————–

    A domestic scene in a comfortably appointed “sleeper cell”. Dissident sits transfixed before PC.

    E.C. (animated): Honey, Schmuckens has called it for November 24! Guess I’ll only be “strapped to the beast” for another fourty days.

    Minister for War: That’s nice, dear. What will you become obsessed with after that, then?

    *barely noticably, dissident slumps, exhales slowly*

  22. Howard is looking terrible. I wouldn’t be surprised if he retires hurt at some stage in the election campaign. Hands the show to Costello and goes for a sympathy vote. It’s a wee straw to clutch, but anything is possible with this little man.

  23. Kevin’s press conference 2.15 AEST, watching Sky waiting David Speers talking with the Ghostly PRuddock, defending his leader, he’s been stopped mid-sentence to go live to Bris for Our Kevin’s press conference, he says ‘there is too much focus on opinion polls’ -don’t you just grrrrrrrrrrrrrr.
    gotta go Kevin’s about to start – go Kevin

  24. Kevin is wedging JHo’s experience JHo’s negative smear/fear campaign, JHo’s got away with this in past campaigns, you know what the Australian people can see through that.
    JHo has never shown accontability for:-
    AWB -yea
    children overboard – yea

  25. ” … Howard’s plan for the future is to win the election, retire and hand over to Peter Costello …” Rudd.

    That’s neat and telling and I think young and old might buy it.

    But the contrast between the two contenders! If Rudd can keep this up, it will cut through.

    Oops, have a bias problem in my biased knickers … sorry …

  26. Gippslander @ 319

    “possum at least some of this swing could be expained in demographic terms , rather than as a change in sentiment. many people moving into the “öldies” demographic are Whitlamesque baby boomers, while those moving off the twig are 1930’s babies, who were inspired by Menzies. Of course I can imagine a few of these being less than enthused by Howard!”

    My parents are in their mid-eighties. They’ll be voting Labor (they usually do, unless they vote Greens), but they say that many of their friends are switching from Lib to Labor because finally, there is a decent alternative to Howard. They wanted to vote Labor last time, but couldn’t stomach Latham. I think many people of their generation felt that way about him.

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