Taverner: 59-41 in NSW and Victoria

Possum Comitatus informs us of a Taverner poll to be published in tomorrow’s Sun-Herald which will show Labor leading 59-41 in New South Wales and Victoria, and of a Galaxy poll to be published on Monday bringing the Coalition bad news from marginal seats. Taverner conducted electorate-level polling from New South Wales during the 2004 campaign, which proved fairly accurate.

UPDATE: Sun-Herald coverage now available, complete with the remarkable finding that Labor leads 73-27 among 18-29 year olds. No indication of sample size that I can see. While you’re there, have a look at their nifty graphic showing the size of Labor’s majorities as indicated by monthly ACNielsen polling results since June.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

398 comments on “Taverner: 59-41 in NSW and Victoria”

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  2. 48
    Crikey Whitey Says:
    October 13th, 2007 at 10:47 pm
    I was thinking last night of asking Mum and Dad about their experience of the Menzies’ long years, and remembered that they are both dead, but how excited they were for Whitlam, It’s Time.

    Let me tell you CW, it was one of the Highlights of my life. I was at the Hotham ALP party, and even though we didn’t win the seat, there were old ladies (I guess about as old as I am now) hugging everybody in tears of joy. After 1966, and the gloom then!

    I was brought up in a catholic school, and all my teen tears was an outcast because I was a “commy”.

    There’s not the same wild enthusiasm now as there was for Gough: how could there be? But there may be a more realistic sense of what can be achieved.. I hope so. “As the ancient Romans said,’festina lente’.

    BTW, in those days Hotham had large chunks of what is now Goldstein, without Brighton, and bits of what is now Isaacs. If ever there was a seat that has been changed by successive redistributions, this is it! I doubt there is a single booth that was in the 1972 electorate. Surely a name change is called for. It’d save a lot of psephologic confusion.

  3. rolls will close on 22.10.07
    means we’ll have some time for enrollments
    good luck kevvie & co
    thank you William Possum & Adam for your contribution to maintain sanity in this mad world

  7. Downer guaranteed as foreign minister? Isn’t that an incentive to not vote for the Coalition? Nice lame jibe at McClelland though.

  11. Kevvie will be all rubbery and gristly after being roasted for 6 weeks!

    It is going to be fun watching Gillard do another “Medicare Gold”!

  12. This country does not need new leadership or old leadeship.

    FFS

    Love me or loathe me

    (More of the latter methinks)

    “Trade union officials”

    Oh horror

    “33 year low in unemployment”

    Yeah, thanks to Hawke Keating, but Moi takes the credit.

    Plans plans plans….blah blah blah “challenges of climate change”

    “The things that divide us”

    Like the Howard government.

    “Balance in public life”

    Oh no all governments would be Labor, unbalanced, trade union officials.

  19. 59
    Possum Comitatus Says:
    October 13th, 2007 at 10:57 pm
    The oldies movement is interesting, its somewhere around a 9% swing to the ALP.

    possum at least some of this swing could be expained in demographic terms , rather than as a change in sentiment. many people moving into the “öldies” demographic are Whitlamesque baby boomers, while those moving off the twig are 1930’s babies, who were inspired by Menzies. Of course I can imagine a few of these being less than enthused by Howard!

  20. Im sorry Rodent – I have no idea what you stand for anymore – aside from winning at all costs.

    You’re in fact the greatest flip-flopper Ive ever seen in Oz politics.

    Bahah! And Howard’s the biggest responsibility dodger of all time! Weee! This stuff is hilarious.

  25. Well, At least Howard will now have to stop spending our dough on those futile “Government” Workchoices and Green “I can do that” Advertisments.

    I’m certainly gonna do something for the environment on 24th November: Vote to rid the Australian political environment of that toxic spill known as the Coalition Government. And it looks like about 60% of the polulation are going to be doing likewise.

    Ta ta Johnnie.

  26. So if the best years lie ahead of the country, why the urgent need after last election to give employers the unilateral “choices” to cut wages, conditions and job security? Worker-hating business toady.

  27. Someone (possibly Nafe or Glen, ESTj is I suspect is too sophisticated) will soon claim that the polls were wrong in the Irish election and therefore they could be wrong here too.
    This is an Irish poll several weeks before the 2007 Irish elections.http://www.tnsmrbi.ie/cms/uploads/8-9th_may_2007.pdf
    It correctly picks that A’Hearns FF/PD government will be defeated and the new government would be formed by whichever major party the Greens sold their souls to. The commentary also includes a brief history of the swings that occurred in the Irish polls in the 6 months before the election – at least in Australia the polls have been rock solid all year. So let’s not have any comparisons to Ireland.

  30. It’s quite stimulating to realise from the polls that Australia’s ‘liberals’ have rallied in their thousands to join us in reclaiming our Nation. The coming landslide will be equally symbolic for both sides. Good luck Australia.

  33. This is the worst post-election press conference by Howard I’ve heard -he’s spouting cliches, employing tired scare tactics. trying to use the interest rates line again despite interest rates having gone up and somehow his rhetoric just seems empty and hollow

    And where he did he get that line about Rudd not wanting Swan as his Treasurer and that he would dump McClelland as his foreign minister?

    To begin with, I think this argument is as weak as Labor’s pathetic “a vote for Howard is a vote for Costello” line that it took to the last two election and will probably have a similar effect on voters -i.e. none.

    Secondly I think it’s common knowledge that Howard didn’t want Costello as his Deputy or his Treasurer when he became Prime Minister but kept him on as a way of easing leadership tensions. So it’s the pot calling the kettle black in that regard. And ANYONE would be better than Clowner as Foreign Minister so that destroys the second part of his argument as well

    I still believe that Howard has a strong chance of winning this election but he really needs to lift his game if he wants to do so. His press conference today was just abysmal -even from an objective point of view -and, if it is an indication of his performance to come in the coming weeks, the government is in trouble

  34. At the start of the last election Howard made his “who do you trust on… interest rates, interest rates, interest rates, interest rates, interest rates…” and so on.

    It was a clear message backed up with supporting themes (“L” plate latham). It was simple, the govt stayed on message the entire campain and it worked.

    This time round there is just a rabble of ideas – as though gleamed fom a focus group on speed.

    I’m looking forward to Rudd’s reply. I’ve felt he has been holding back – that the ALP has a few “choice” targets and a lot an ammunition to fire.

    Do others think the ALP will switch to offense now – or will they wait out a couple of more weeks on the high silent ground?

  37. Reading the telepathic entrails of Howards speech, I reckon he’s going to ban traditional law everywhere in the country on the grounds of human rights, and use the foreign affairs power to give it constitutional teeth.

    It will be an attempt to play well to the Hanson set because the “everyone would be treated the same” line, while he tries to play to the leafy safe government seats with the “increasing the human rights standards” line.

    I’ll flow into the Ratty The Uniter spiel.

  38. Not a good speech, I thought. I’ll admit to bias against him, but…

    – voice breaking occasionally – quote of ‘love me or loathe me’ (easy to answer that one) – making a big deal of international engagement (like Iraq) – stability of leadership (huh?) – lots of antagonism towards journalists’ questions – some weak attacks on McLelland and Swan – …

    I’m surprised he has made such a big deal of his speech to the Sydney Institute. I’m surprised he’s not banging on about economic matters. But I suppose that would open him up to criticism on interest rates and WorkChoices.

    Hmmm…. I will be interested in what the consensus of how good an effort this speech was. I did not think it was very good.

  40. Crikey Gippslander – I think I was there too. I know I was handing out at the polling booths but can’t actually remember the party. That’s the 70’s for you.

  44. Howard was looking uncomfortable with the interview, and then suddendly it ended.

    As for running on Leadership, wasn’t that what Keating ran on in 96?

  46. I have no doubt Rudd will have predicted the messy pottage of todays themes (“this election is about er, a whole bunch of stuff), and will sound bite them on the arse – but in a positive way, “tired old ideas v fresh approach”.

    Then we’ll see some big policy announcements to throw Howard on the reply for a day or so, reducing his momentum. Otherwise, I think he might look Prime Minsiterial and reserved, stay positive, avoid attacks, and let Howard do his frantic attention gathering routine.

    fact is, Howard has to make the running, and so will continue to annoy the punters.

    And he more Howard starts to remind punters of the bar scene from star wars that is ‘the state opposition leaders’, the more secure the landslide.

  48. [Not a good speech, I thought. I’ll admit to bias against him, but… ]

    I thought the prepared speech was OK, but his answers to some of the questions were just silly. I don’t think this stuff is going to work, he needs to actually release some policies.

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