Taverner: 59-41 in NSW and Victoria

Possum Comitatus informs us of a Taverner poll to be published in tomorrow’s Sun-Herald which will show Labor leading 59-41 in New South Wales and Victoria, and of a Galaxy poll to be published on Monday bringing the Coalition bad news from marginal seats. Taverner conducted electorate-level polling from New South Wales during the 2004 campaign, which proved fairly accurate.

UPDATE: Sun-Herald coverage now available, complete with the remarkable finding that Labor leads 73-27 among 18-29 year olds. No indication of sample size that I can see. While you’re there, have a look at their nifty graphic showing the size of Labor’s majorities as indicated by monthly ACNielsen polling results since June.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

398 comments on “Taverner: 59-41 in NSW and Victoria”

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  1. I think NSW and Victoria have realised that the minor states have been getting all the pork for years. This time round they will deliver the ALP victory almost without assistance from any of the other states.

    So they will be getting a bit of govt lovin this time around.

  2. Can’t spring a chance trying for business class booking Perth to Canberra, tomorrow. Not that I’m going, merely having a look

  3. If I put these poll figures into Antony Green’s election calculator, I come up with the following results:
    Labor 104 seats
    Coalition 44 seats
    Independents 2 seats

  4. 59/41. Jeez those figures are beautiful.
    Notwithstanding the possibility of inducing the h-word from Glen, I’d like to see Shill Shanhan analyse this Taverner as the “widening we had to have” ahead of the inevitable “Narrowing”.
    If anyone can do it, Shill can. He has the gift.

  5. Dennis Shanahan today was still trying to pretend Howard is a dead certainty to win and Rudd will struggle to pick up even 4 extra seats, let alone 16.
    Shanas ought to join the Liberal Party, he lost all pretence of impartiality years ago.

  6. I don’t believe it! Do you think he had a dodgey News Poll? I’ve had few on a Saturday night…you always feel good…but the next day…phew!

  7. [59/41. Jeez those figures are beautiful.]

    Figures like that make me nervous. I’d prefer for the polls to show a solid 53/47, then on election day Rudd gets 55/45!

  8. I cant still remember back to the 80/90s when I didn’t have the slightest interest in politics and why I voted the way i did.

    I remember Hawke and thought he was good but then after some time he started to speak arrogantly and I didn’t like it much, so when Keating took over I thought that was probably a good thing. Then Keating started to speak arrogantly on TV and it turned me off.

    I never did tie the economic troubles of the time to the govt – it seemed to me that the whole world was in the same boat. I didn’t think anything of it. I do remember one thing about Howard from the time – he did a debate with Hawke which every body said Hawke won – but I thought Howard did ok.

    When it came to the Keating/Howard election I can tell you I had no idea about Howard’s team or what his policies were – just that I remember him as being OK. Once Keating became arrogant on TV it turned me off. Howard was just another option another politician but not as bad as Keating. I was always going to vote Howard – nothing Keating did could have changed me – because I never took any interest in policies or dirt or what they were saying – it was all blah blah blah to me then. I had decided he was unpleasant and that was that.

    So I reckon it wont matter how much the LNP people shout and jump up and down – some people made their decision and our now watching the cricket, fishing or whatever.

  9. Pre-Election date annoument seat prediction which I will re-do come Election eve.

    I first see the ALP dropping no seats, and the Nat’s winning Calare leaving us with 2 Indepentants

    Tassie = Braddon, Bass
    Victoria = Lt Trobe, McMillan, McEwen, Corrangamitte
    NSW = Edan Monaro, Lindsey, Bennenlong, Hughes, Dobell, Roberson, Paterson, Page, Cowper, Macquarrie,
    Queensland = Moreton, Bonner, Bowman, Petrie, Blair, Longman, Herbert, Hinklar, Dickson, Forde, McPherson, Flynn
    NT = Solomon
    SA = Makin, Wakefield, Kingston
    WA = Hasluck, Stirlng, Kalgoorlie, Canning

    This gives the ALP 96 seats but there are a dozen other seats that I would consider ‘to close to call’

    Goldstein, Kooyong, Deakin, Dunkley, Flinders, Wentworth, Gilmore, MaCathur, North Sydney, Leichart, Ryan

  10. David Spears on Sky said “Of course these polls will narrow during the campaign.” Why “of course” David? He also mentioned the all most impossible hurdle of 16 seats. The election will be very close according to David. I think he listens too much to the Liberals and their polling.

  11. [David Spears on Sky said “Of course these polls will narrow during the campaign.” Why “of course” David? ]

    Isn’t it wishful thinking so that their reporting will be interesting? If the result is already obvious at the start of the campaign, then no one will bother watching their broadcast.

    It seems to me it is the political reporters version of the statement “don’t touch that dial!”

  12. 59-41 in NSW and Victoria = WTF.

    On those figures Labor might yet pick up seats in Victoria and Bennelong will have his revenge via JWH on election night.

    I was not counting on any gains in Victoria till I saw that poll result and wasn’t counting on McKew knocking over the PM. Wishful thinking, but the thought does put a smile on my dial.

    Here Glen, cut and paste this “Hubris”, it will save you having to go to the Coalition website to find it again.

    It will all be over soon: 53-47 would have done me at this point: 59-41 is just dream world stuff, but anything like it will toss the Coalition on its ear in NSW and go well beyond most commentators predictions for Victoria.

    Go on Mr Howard, call the election. There is no good news for you except in the Coalition handbook and The Australian newspaper. Bye Bye JWH.

  13. How John Howard managed to stave off his last challeng:

    1 And Cabinet came together for business hard
    2 And suddenly there came a sound from heaven as of a rushing mighty wind, and it filled all the house where they were sitting.
    3 And there appeared unto them cloven tongues like as of fire, and it sat upon each of them.
    4 And they were all filled with the Holy Internal Polls, and began to speak with other tongues, as the GG gave them utterance.
    5 And there were dwelling at Canberra pollys, devious men, out of every State under heaven.
    6 Now when this was noised abroad, the multitude came together, and were confounded, because that every man heard them speak in his own language of internal polls.
    7 And they were all amazed and marvelled, saying one to another, Behold, are not all these which speak Victory?
    8 And how hear we every man in our own tongue, wherein we were born?
    9 Adelaidians, and Melbournites, and Queenslanders, and the dwellers in Perth, and Sydney, in Tasmania, and Darwin,
    10 Edon-Monero, and Wentworth, in Bennelong, and in the parts of Canberra, and strangers of Murdoch, Journalists and proselytes,
    11 Crossbys and Textors, we do hear them speak in our tongues the wonderful works of internal Polls.
    12 And they were all amazed, and were in doubt, saying one to another, What meaneth this?
    13 Others mocking said, These men are full of new wine.
    14 But Johny, standing up with the eleven, lifted up his voice, and said unto them, Ye men of Cabinet, and all ye that dwell at Australia, be this known unto you, and hearken to my words:
    15 For these are not drunken, as ye suppose, seeing it is but the third hour of the day.
    16 But this is that which was spoken by the prophet Shanahan;

  14. Supplementary question: If you have read the tea leaves and seats being picked up in Victoria, are they other than the usual suspects in McMillan, Corangamite, Latrobe, McEwen and one Ive forgotten.

  15. [On those figures Labor might yet pick up seats in Victoria and Bennelong will have his revenge via JWH on election night. ]

    I’ll make an early prediction. I don’t think the result in Bennelong will be known on the night, I think it will take a couple of days until the results are known. Whoever wins it will be by less than 500 votes.

  16. Ah ShowsOn.

    So you are of the school that think JWH might survive by a handful of votes then the Liberals lose the seat at the by-election when JWH pulls the pin ? Makes alot of sense to me.

  17. For those interested in enrolment matters, this is a copy of my post 432 on the Phoney War Dispatches Thread.

    Some electoral information for those who have been asking:

    For those interested in enrolment matters, this is a copy of my post 432 on the Phony War Dispatches thread.

    !. Senate – Voting below the line – as long as there is a number 1 and 90% of the squares are filled out, with no more than three errors made, the vote is valid.

    2. All people enrolling for the first time must do so no later than the day the writs are issued – and they now need to provide suitable identification.

    3. People updating their enrolment have three days to do so – no additional ID required. (if the writs are issued on Monday they will have until close of rolls on Wednesday).

    4. The time of close of rolls is 8.00pm (or it has been up to now – I don’t think that is amongst the changes that have been made, but I’m not certain).

  18. Bluebottle at 33

    The polling over the last 3 months has suggested that funny things have been happening in Victoria – some seats there must be swinging large to make the aggregate numbers coming out of all the polls balance up against what we have a fair idea of in certain seats.I still havent a clue which seats they are though, except that there has to be a few safe Victorian government seats swinging in the 11-15% margin.Newspoll hinted at it (with 11% state wide swings), Nexus hinted at it with huge Melbourne seat swings and now Taverner is telling us the same thing.The only question is whether its those partially obvious seats like Deakin, McEwen etc, or if its the wet libs swinging in places like Kooyong, Goldstein and Higgins.I’d originally thought it must have been out in the boony seats, or even things like Gippsland – but no one seems to be picking anything up out there, even anecdotally.

    All I can say is that I’m still as baffled by Victoria as I have been for months.I hesitantly thought something was happening down there, now its fairly obvious that something is happening down there.There’s now too much polling around saying the same thing…. big swings.

  19. Thanks Possum-

    Before this poll I stuck to my view that Labor had pretty much exhausted its potential in Victoria. Maybe it is the wet liberal seats I should be watching on election night and not the marginals [as is the case in NSW].

  20. Kina, you’re a funny bastard, meant most kindly. William, if it isn’t too personal, just how old are you ( I’m a Mum and usually considered a pretty safe sort)? I’m interested because you look about the same age as my sons, i.e. the demographic is interesting in terms of the political.

  21. PS: Went to see Death at a Funeral tonight . Funny, bloody funny. I recommend to anyone needing a distraction if JWH dosen’t call it tomorrow morning.

  22. Well I have told family and friends that if, JWH loses his seat and the election, no Christmas presents are needed! Election night is going to be VERY interesting this year…

    I’m now 21, so was only 10 when he came to power. I was never old enough to understand politics back then. To hopefully see an ALP Federal Government, its almost beyond belief!

  23. I was thinking last night of asking Mum and Dad about their experience of the Menzies’ long years, and remembered that they are both dead, but how excited they were for Whitlam, It’s Time.

    Caused me to reflect, as Kina is expressing, on how little I knew (longitidunally) at the time, except that it was off the back of Vietnam, important to me (nine brothers), stuff such as the DLP had been struggled over in the household, parent’s friends were at odds, incidental to me, there were lots of ardents about over many issues, it was a new time. University education as a chance, hitherto almost impossible, was a fantastic invite. Medibank a huge relief to my parents (eleven siblings).

    I was ardent. And remain.

    That is what mattered, to me at least. I am sad that the company of my friends proclaim that ‘nothing will change’ under a change of government. That may be the unusual experience, in comparison to the Menzian era, of living a voting lifetime under changing, more or less, governments. Which gives ample room for disillusion.

    Young people at this moment may be experiencing something similar. If they are more inspired than disinterested. I do hope they are inspired and I will be less than concerned about my friends, who still are voting Labor, once again instead of otherwise.

  24. Gosh darn it, now I have to have a serious look at Victorian seats.. I had a nice tidy 30 odd to ‘watch’ without Victoria rating a mention.

    Sufferin suckotash !!

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