Taverner: 59-41 in NSW and Victoria

Possum Comitatus informs us of a Taverner poll to be published in tomorrow’s Sun-Herald which will show Labor leading 59-41 in New South Wales and Victoria, and of a Galaxy poll to be published on Monday bringing the Coalition bad news from marginal seats. Taverner conducted electorate-level polling from New South Wales during the 2004 campaign, which proved fairly accurate.

UPDATE: Sun-Herald coverage now available, complete with the remarkable finding that Labor leads 73-27 among 18-29 year olds. No indication of sample size that I can see. While you’re there, have a look at their nifty graphic showing the size of Labor’s majorities as indicated by monthly ACNielsen polling results since June.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

398 comments on “Taverner: 59-41 in NSW and Victoria”

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  1. JWH just left Yarralumla

    Quivering with excitement………

    I hope it’s Nov 24 or Dec 1. On Nov 17, I’ve got the second day of a two day cricket game. Nov 24 I have a one-dayer, as well as Dec 1.

  5. I’m getting married on the 24th – if the Duck (Howard, that is) diddles me out of an election night party I’ll be spitting chips.

  6. One of the criticisms of Rudd seems to be his small target, don’t scare the horses approach to getting elected by saying as few contentious things as possible.

    They equate this with him being all fluff and no substance, but when playing against JH it has to be the only route you can take.

    If and when Labor is elected, I believe they will enact the things they have talked about quietly in the background – real steps about global warming, all those social justice ideas that have been out in the cold for 11 years, a republic, etc etc.

    But I realize you can’t talk about this from opposition, one wrong step with a big idea and next thing you know some minor aspect of it or some mis-phrased statement and the news cycle is on you and the Govt. is lining up to hammer you over your ‘inexperience’ or ‘recklessness’

  7. # 242 – Possum, what I really love is how Sky News keeps replaying the car going through the gates. I’m waiting to see it in slow motion.

  11. What’s Rudd doing right now?

    I’m sure he is preparing his election calling reply speech. I remember Latham’s, it was a shocker. I knew right there and then they were in for a hiding. I hope Rudd takes the initiative and goes straight to the front in dictating the agenda.

    Go 07.

  12. 242
    Possum Comitatus Says:
    October 14th, 2007 at 10:58 am

    He didn’t even moon the gathering crowd.Poor form on the entertainment front really.

    He most probably thought he would blind them all Possum,as we all know thats where the sun shines from.

  13. Shiftaling, if the election’s held on the day of your wedding, every anniversary you and your partner have will have an extra significance–the day Howardism died.

    Just make sure that there are a few TVs at the reception, then it’ll be both a reception and an election party! 😉

  17. I suspect we’ll get either Nov24 or Dec1. Nov17 will clash with the 2nd test against Sri Lanka (in Hobart) and you know he wants to be seen at the cricket, not the least losing a whole bunch of Tasmanian votes who are pissed off at having to queue to vote before going to the game.

    That also leaves more time for a potential interest rate rise.

  19. Nelson ( i think) was just on ABC News radio and was re-inforcing the old “High Rates under Labor mean you’ll lose your house”.

  20. I was thinking looking at the TV this morning that it would have been fun if the ACT Cross Country Club had scheduled a race at Dunrossil Drive for this morning. (There’s an annual race, two laps, up and down the side of the Government House driveway – it’s a better course than it sounds. 4.2km, with Martin Dent’s course record being a bit under 12 minutes).

  24. oh dear the waiting is getting to me, how long before the press conference???? i dont believe it till he says it publically, he might have just called in for morning tea to fool us!

  26. #
    244
    Blacklight Says:
    October 14th, 2007 at 11:00 am

    Downer has already given up

    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22583179-29277,00.html

    well Nicky Downer…

    Well, well, an increasingly petulant member for Mayo. What a surprise. It’s probably too much to ask that he be turfed out in the upcoming poll. Or is it?

    I would expect Labor needs a 2PP of near 60 in SA to have enough of a base to win Mayo. Then again, Downer has been clutching onto Howard’s coattails for so long, it’s possible he could go down with him, although I’d say its very unlikely.

  27. Now the real pork barrelling starts. Will Australians resist the bunch of dollars Howards going to throw at them to get re-elected?

  29. hmmm

    kemosabe speak with forked tongue

    beware the talk in pubs and clubs

    the only issue will be worstchoices mk1 and mk2

    oh and the usual rascist dog whistles

  30. Nostra @274, i shall gratefully accept any pork thrown my way and still vote for Rudd.
    Scotty@273, we can only pray– what a gem that would be hearing Downer concede his seat, nearly as good as hearing the dear leaders concession speech– priceless.

  34. Labor need a net gain of 17 seats for a majority; they have 59 seats after Harry Quick resigned from the party in Tasmania where they now hold only two seats out of five.

    So the Australian is correct.

  35. It is startlingly clever of Rudd to make the slogan “Kevin 07” sound synonymous with “Election 07”. The notion that Howard has met his match is an understatement of massive proportions.

  37. # 281 – Hey Notstro, remember saying you’d be really worried if Labor was still polling 57 TPP by the end of July? God, you must be shi**ing yourself by now.

  39. Wooohhhhhooo!!!!

    I am the ghost of Mark Latham and
    Kevin Rudd is just about to stuff up his response to John Howards calling of the election
    Just like I did 3 years ago

    The past will haunt you Kevin

    WWWWWOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!

  40. what do we then call the Government Gazette with the conservatives gone ?

    (Dave’s question I think)

    Possibly “Overthrow the Government Gazette” (or the “Henny Penny Gazette”?) but what will be interesting is when Shananagan and his ilk reinvent themselves as pro Rudd when after a short period the sky doesn’t fall down.

    Many await the GG’s Road to Damascus conversion, on top of a voter conversion which will unleash a tidal wave of vindication in Howard’s political nemesis, which I would express thus:

    Never in the field of human political conflict has so much anticipatory and justified schadenfreude of so many come to fruition, and directed to so few.

    Apart from a caretaker role during the campaign, I take some comfort in the fact that by calling the election today Howard has no more decisions to make as Prime Minister. His last act in that capacity thank goodness, (or I’m probably off to New Zealand.)

  43. Election date confirmed as November 24. Paging William and Adam…..

    I’ve been waiting eight months to type this on this website:

    LET’S GET IT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Excitable, aren’t I?

  50. According to the Prime Minister “I firmly believe that the country’s best years can lie ahead of us”

    I agree -all the more reason to vote Labor

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