Morgan: 57.5-42.5

The weekly Roy Morgan face-to-face poll is the first in three weeks that doesn’t put a six in front of Labor’s two-party preferred vote, which is down from 61 per cent to 57.5 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is down from 53.5 per cent to 49.4 per cent and the Coalition’s up from 35.5 per cent to 38 per cent. The poll was conducted on the weekend, so very recent political developments would not have been a factor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

810 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

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  1. Morgan was out of step by 5 points for the fast couple of weeks compared to the other regular pollsters so maybe the tide is turning and the other pollsters report 52.5 – 47.5. Fingers crossed.

  2. Well it is a fall, but its another poll north of 55 2PP.

    When was the last time a poll had the ALP under 55? Given all these polls have a margin of error of between 2 and 4 percent its interesting that there has yet to be a rouge poll giving the Coalition hope.

    So there is no evidence yet of the famed “narrowing”.

    Not to say it ain’t coming – just no evidence yet.

  3. [maybe the tide is turning and the other pollsters report 52.5 – 47.5. Fingers crossed.]

    That’s very doubtful. Labor’s vote hasn’t been below 55 for a few months, and that was only one Newspoll.

  4. This is probably closer to the mark. The Libs generally get in on a fairly low primary, and Labor can get more than 50% and not get across the line! Howard took 4 elections to get his lead do the Liberal saps here think that it can be lost in one hit – you lot really must be losers – you certainly think like Losers.

    As for Labor – there is still a long way to go to exterminate the Libs.

  5. I’d be surprised if the newspoll shows a gain for the ALP after the week they’ve had. Frankly, they deserve a bashing so they start moving. They need to be speeding up now not slowing down.

    John of Melbourne, I wouldn’t be surprised with that result at all. I’d go further an predict 52/48.

  7. [When was the last time a poll had the ALP under 55? ]

    For Newspoll:

    Newspoll 16-18 February 2007# Coalition 46 ALP 54

    I think the most recent sub 55 one was a Galaxy

  9. ShowsOn, there was a Morgan with 54.5 about a month or so ago. I was checking out some Morgan polls from the 70s and 80s this morning, they were very accurate. What went wrong?

  10. A lot of wishful thinking going on here. J of M and CTEP seem to be wishing for the same thing. Labor’s had worse weeks and come out unscathed. I suspect this will again. The swing is well and truly on.

  14. JoM #12: None of the evidence whatever points to 2007 being anything like 1993.

    On the other hand nearly all the evidence points to 2007 being just like 1996, except with a much bigger swing away from the Government…

  15. Morgan is still rabiting on about “soft “ALP voters.

    The PM seems to be worried aoubt “soft” coalition voters.

    Go figure.,

  16. Observer – “The Libs generally get in on a fairly low primary, and Labor can get more than 50% and not get across the line!” I’m not really sure what you’re getting at here but if Labor’s primary vote is over 50% or anywhere near it they will win easily. Also the Libs actually need a reasonably high primary vote and, at the the same time, Labor’s needs to be lower for the Libs to feel confortable. When Labor’s primary vote is higher than the Libs, Labor will win more often than not (unless the PV is very close then it can go either way depending on where the votes fall).

  17. I know you do John but I wouldn’t be betting your house on it if I were you. It looks more like 1996 in reverse to me.

  20. Andos & Gary I agree with your posts the evidence does support your stances. But I hope! I hope what happended in Ireland happens here.

    I hope Johnny brings out awesome policies during the election campaign. During the election Mr. Rudd will not be able to say Me Too .

  21. Morgan is probably just coming back in line with the other polls. The analysis by Possum on why Howard is raising reconciliation and other social issues is compulsory reading. Howard seems to be trying to appeal to his core voters, the doctors’ wives in the leafy streets of MLB and SYD. If this is true, then he knows he is in really big trouble. It means the Libs are trying to save the funiture and preserve their vote in what were rock solid blue seats. It also means they have written off the battler and redneck seats.

  23. Having just unveiled his vision for the future (*cough* restatement of his old ideas *cough*) I wonder if Howard is poised to announce the election date today or tomorrow?

    There is a tip to that effect in Crikey today, but then those tips are notoriously unreliable.

  24. Yes Gary @ 11. More cant and humbug from Howard. He can’t understand that he is no longer setting the agenda. The punters have moved on, it seems.

    As for Morgan: is this a sign of the celebrated “narrowing”. Over to the pros …

  26. Backlight 18

    That graph on page 18 of the Liberals policy document says it all.

    Paul Keating is clearly responsible for reforming our economy and sending us off into the current uncharted realms of material prosperity. He was PM when there was a sudden change in direction for us.

  29. Derek, I think the best way to look at the polling is that no single pollster has had the ALP’s 2PP vote lower than 54% for a long time, except for one galaxy poll in early June. If Labor starts getting numbers around the 54-55 (or worse) for a range of pollsters then there might be a claim to a softening in Labor’s vote.

  31. Looks like a drop in the labor soft vote from 60.5 to 57.5, leaving the hard core of 55% and the waverers of 2%.

    If labor can pick the 2% waverers up at election time they will be doing well, if Howard keeps up his “look at me, look at me” campaign I think labor will be a good chance to pick up the 3% soft vote also.

  33. V.soon the Australian people will reject Labor’s lies and reward the government for its outstanding economic management. Fairness starts with having a job.

  34. Wrong, Tabitha. Fairness starts with a real job with a real wage. The electorate are aware of this, hence the reaction to NoChoices.

  35. Thanks Tab, tell that to my Dad, who had a job before WorkChoices, and since then lost penalty rates, was made to work Saturdays etc. Doesn’t sound too fair to me. But go ahead, continue to roll out these glib one-liners and refuse to see reality.

  37. V.soon the Australian people will reject Howard’s lies and turn to Labor for its outstanding vision on economic management. Future employment starts with investment in our infrastructure and young people.

  38. Tabitha

    The evidence (from studies via Professor Peetz et al) is that these jobs would otherwise be created cause we are on an economic boom – If you go into the IR stuff, it is a 90% power/rights to employer, 10% to employee, it will crush the wages of the bottom half in the long term to extreme income disparity. I think that you should look at other countries like Denmark and Holland which are more left social democracies than we will ever be, yet have unemployment rates of about 4per cent. In other words, you do not need to have a far right IR policy, for the business elites, to have a reasonable unemployment rate – and they do it by not going the US way………I have a soft copy of the Senate Submission to the IR stuff by our top 150 of our top acadamics – if you would like a copy let me know – “extreme and radical’ and against ILO are common words.
    In reference to economic mgt, all economists say Paul Keating and co – both sides know that they do not have much control over the economy anyway as its now deregulated – as paul keating said “international circumstances far outweighed anything that I ever did….

  39. 81% of people worried about paying bills in the next 12 months according to Visa Advantage survey. Hows that for “outstanding economic management”?

  41. I don’t like this.

    Rudd needs to get back on the front foot. He’s been responding to Howard all week.

    I think he needs to announce a big policy. It’ll also have the positive secondary effect of focusing on the non-calling of the election.

  42. Ruawake that is personal economic management. If you indebt yourself beyond your means by choice then you only have yourself to blame.

    I wonder how many more people will worry about paying bills once a carbon tax is introduced.

  44. Um, no, Tabitha. I work hard (and I studied hard to get where I am), but I vote Labor because I have a social conscience. I care about disadvantaged people, minority rights, the environment and lots of other issues where the Liberals have been seriously lacking – primarily due to Howard’s complete lack of compassion throughout his tenure as PM.

  45. Tabitha, why do you not go into the issue on its own merit? Like independent information and not prejudice and opinion?

    Wages were at 30 year lows as a percentage of profit as a result of the dominance of right wing fundamentalism so its stands to reason that employers for the most part would be hiring anyway…It seems to me that your opinions are based on prejudice so independent info is irrelevant

  46. Tabitha (33) “V.soon the Australian people will reject Labor’s lies and reward the government for its outstanding economic management. Fairness starts with having a job”.

    On reading your post I was instantly reminded of that Iraqi spokesman during the US invasion in 2003 who kept insisting, even as the US forces were entering Baghdad, that the Iraqi army were putting the invaders to route. The cartoonists had a field day with it and it was suggested by some that he be offered a standup comedy routine in the US after the war.

  49. People are always paying bills, so it “worries them”. So what? WHat on earth is a Visa Advantage survey anyhow?

    Workchoices is almost neutralised after the Government information campaign, tv radio and print ads, and will not be the deciding factor of this poll.

  50. John of Melbourne, so we’ve moved from public debt to personal debt. A great move. We’re paying more for health, education and every government service, yet we should be happy that the surplus is huge and we’ve got huge mortgages and credit card debt. Surely there’s a middle ground somewhere.

    John Howard has also sold the idea that we should aspire to live beyond our means. It’s what he’s made his political fortunes on. For his supporters now to turn around and tell us “Too bad for you” shows them up for the heartless mob they are. He’s sold us a dream that we would all share in the economic spoils, yet most people aren’t feeling it… wonder why?

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