The weekly Roy Morgan face-to-face poll is the first in three weeks that doesn’t put a six in front of Labor’s two-party preferred vote, which is down from 61 per cent to 57.5 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is down from 53.5 per cent to 49.4 per cent and the Coalition’s up from 35.5 per cent to 38 per cent. The poll was conducted on the weekend, so very recent political developments would not have been a factor.
Adam is a troll in two senses.
Labor snobs without real jobs
Isn’t tabitha the daughter out of bewitched? Yes wiggle your nose and who knows a rabbit out of the hat. So which policies of the coalition are exactly responsible for economic prosperity?
I love these trolling cliche generators.
My only question is where I put the coin in?
Possum,
you don’t wanna know.
Popcorn
Seems the general response is: too little, too late. Peter Harcher in today’s SMH put it this way: “John Howard avowed last night that his new thinking on Aboriginal reconciliation was not a Demascus Road conversion. He’s right. It’s a deathbed conversion.”
Howard will not gain one vote from this blatantly political ploy. Basically, it’s puke-making. Particularly the caveat: no sorry.
Tabitha
On the other hand, Labor stands for more being more equally for everyone, where as the Liberals stands for the business and economic elites. Perhaps you should study globalisation and see that its based on a neoliberal agenda for a very small percentage of the worlds population – capitalism is winner takes all you know – and any intervention on that is a left wing intervention – perhaps you should do a development course at Uni although it sounds like no matter what was thrown at you, you would not give an inch
JoM
It is not about “personal economic management” that line of, oh sorry you borrowed to much is crud.
Why are St Vinnies handing out tents because there is no rental accomodation? Rents have risen by 27% this year alone. A “Healthy food basket” has increased by 41%.
Even if you have been a good “personal economic manager” you are worse off. Ha – Never had it so good?
Way to abuse a journalistic soapbox, Edmund Tadros, via AAP, for the SMH. Check out this setup to a valid question:
“One reporter wearing a baseball cap, a striped T-shirt, jeans and canvas shoes asked Mr Howard if he was “like Fonzie”, from the Happy Days TV program, who could never say sorry.”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/pm-issues-election-manifesto/2007/10/12/1191696145754.html
Tabitha – given you are blogging on the Internet in the middle of the afternoon, either you are unemployed, underemployed or a Liberal staffer.
Which one?
Call the election please (Ctep) I don’t see how he sold the idea that we should live beyond our means?
As for surpluses Victoria just announced a $1.3bn surplus surely the Labor Government there should be scolded as well!
Governments have surpluses because its good policy.
The election will be announced tommorow morning.
November 24th will be the election date.
Get ready folks!
John of Melbourne
Economics 101 knows that budget deficits are a normal part of running a country – Costello himself would know that – and so does any economist in the country – Govt’s go into debt all the time, for good economic reasons, like Norway, to provide full employment. There is good and bad debt. Have you studied economics or is this just prejudice?
JoM,
The key problem for Howard is that whilst economic indicators say the Australian economy is growing, the gains aren’t being felt in most households. Instead, they’re feeling like the price of everything is rising around them (rent, petrol, mortgage payments). Howard isn’t responsible for most of these things – but the fact that he keeps harping on about the economy means he is the main target for voter frustrations on these issues.
As to surpluses – they’re good in boom times (like now), but the perception is that when you rack up a $17bn surplus, you are taxing too much and spending too little. The problem for Howard is that most of this revenue is coming from corporate tax – so that regardless of how big a personal tax cut he gives, it will always look like he’s taxing too much…
Ruawake how will Kevin fix housing and the cost of food both governed by market forces?
Surely you don’t believe Kevin will make it rain?
at least Howard’s foray into reconcilliation has drowned out the capital punishment row, the bloggers, calling it for the cynical exercise it is are running at about 98%.
Rudd needs to make a big annoucement or two, perhaps this poll will make the dear leader shoot the firing gun! {please on bended knee}
40 Tabitha – Labor is for people who give a stuff about society. Liberal is for those who only give a stuff about themselves.
“Ruawake how will Kevin fix housing and the cost of food both governed by market forces?
Surely you don’t believe Kevin will make it rain?”
In answering your question. Kevin wont do S%&t. But he has got the electorate fooled……….which he should be congratulated for.
50 Tabitha – Liberal dills with no ideals.
LaborVoter, do you have sources, or is that just your intuition?
CTEP and others, Rudd doesn’t need to announce anything new until the election is called. All the pressure is on Howard now to call the election. The reconciliation talk may well backfire on Howard, as he’s never done this in 11 yrs as PM.
57.5 – 42.5, that’s more plausible than the last Morgan face-to-face poll.
Still a slight bias in Morgan towards Labor than in Newspoll, ACN or Galaxy – this time about 2-3% instead of 4-5%.
Interestingly for their NZ political poll (a phone poll), Morgan isn’t biased at all to Labour compared with the other main NZ political polls (all phone polls I think).
I say please Mr Howard let parliament sit so the Heiner Papers can be produced and the Australian people will know the truth.
I wonder how many more major announcements or unveiling of plans we will see in the next 24 hours. Talk about fattening a pig on market day – they’re force feeding porky til he bursts!
A thought just came across me…
By talking about reconciliation, isn’t Howard now focusing on an area where Labor has had relative electoral strength over the Coalition. Would this mean that Howard’s referendum idea will end up being a negative for the Coalition – just like when he started talking about climate change earlier this year???
Possum, I would love to hear some of your views on this – I know you’ve dissected the Textor/Crosby stuff to death…
Jom, Victoria had reasons for the surplus to be there, as john lenders told us on wednesday, and they were one of reasons.
Not much good having a surplus if you have a massive skills shortage and decaying and insufficient infrastructure. I know that howard will use it to pork barrell which is even worse.
Morgan f2f has probably been too high the last two weeks. This re-adjustment is only back to being about 2% more pro-Labor than the other pollsters.
[I say please Mr Howard let parliament sit so the Heiner Papers can be produced and the Australian people will know the truth.]
It’s already been tried, but the government and the opposition blocked Senator Joyce from tabling them.
JoM
I am not saying Rudd can, the problem for Howard is “Who do you trust to keep interest rates low” and “Working families have never been better off”.
People feel they are being conned and will not vote for Howard. Add Work Choices, which is designed to stop inflationary wage rises – you have the perfect scenario for an election landslide.
All care of John Howard. 8)
Swing Lowe, Possum has it up at his website:
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/10/12/reconciliation-and-range-rovers/#comment-1891
RE: “LaborVoter, do you have sources, or is that just your intuition?”
I live in Townsville, which is the marginal seat of Herbert.
The local member here(Peter Lindsey, Lib) had put shipping containers all around Townsville and for about 3 weeks they have sat there with nothing on them.
Now just in the past 2 days, suddenly the big Peter Lindsey posters are all over them.
Couple that with the fact of Howards “Vision” speech today, and the fact he won’t say parliment will resume next week(something we would expect him to say if it WAS) and as far as I’m concerned it’s a done deal.
The November 24th date is one that I have predicted over 3 months ago if the coalition hadn’t improved in polling. It’s the latest the coalition can go without going into the festive month of December and looking desperate.
We shall all find out tommorow anyways.
John of Melbourne
It is a well known fact that it rains more when Labor are in Govt. the statistics can’t be wrong, can they? 😉
derek @ 54 – JWH: “oh goodness, 2 minutes to midnight…how can i claw back/gain some support from somewhere, anywhere…ah, i know, an [effective] admission of my life-long, deeply-ingrained racism along with a promise that i’ll make amends”. it’s a disturbing sight, one that i could have done without over dinner last night
like mick dodson said: it’s not all about you, john.
Swing Lowe at 72 – with one of those polarised sort of issues like reconciliation, it would certainly be expected to push that part of the nominal Labor vote that supports reconciliation further into the ALP fold.
The Lib wets though, hard to tell.I think it will backfire on Howard and push them further toward Rudd (and remember, these wets are going to Rudd, not the ALP at the moment).But for this group, that push probably wont come per se as a result of Howard raising an issue that the ALP is well positioned on, but because of the transparent political vote grabbing attempt it really was.People dont like to be treated like mugs.
Tabitha,
if the coalition were going to run with the Heiner smear, they would have let Barnaby Joyce table the so-called papers weeks ago. They didn’t because they know there is nothing in it – frankly it is disgusting that the far-right nuts in the coalition would open the old wounds of this terrible incident in an effort to somehow link Rudd to it.
My suggestion to you and your nutty mates is to sit down, switch on the Fox news channel and see if there are any other tactics you can copy from your Republican friends. Perhaps you could see if Therese Rein has any health problems and blame Rudd for trying to get votes out of it the way the Republicans accused John Edwards of milking his wife’s cancer.
Anyhoo, maybe you could hire a big-screen T.V to watch Fox and have a cocktail/smear/brainstorming session at Alex Hawke’s place.
Good luck.
sorry Tabitha your flogging a dead horse there, Rudd wasnt working for the Queensland government when the rape happened and even the coalition isnt going to go there because it was a liberal/national government in at the time.
Tabitha (50) “Labor snobs without real jobs”
School yard stuff Tabitha
I just figured it out. Tabitha is a Piers Akerman groupie. The Heiner Papers comment gave it away (#70).
I always wondered if anybody actually read Akerman’s stuff. Now I know at least one person does.
Lord D @ 68
You keep believing that. When, in 2 months time we’re all sitting here and wondering where it all went wrong, we’ll all know it was because Rudd waited too long to outline what Australia would be like under his leadership. If he doesn’t outline it, the Liberal Party will and it won’t be pretty.
Re the Heiner stuff: the initial incident that this issue is all about pre-dates the Goss government; Goss dealt with the aftermath when he was elected. I have yet to hear one cogent explanation as to WHY an incoming government, when in receipt of dynamite evidence of corruption and/or incompetence on the part of the previous government, would just shred that information and not use it to political advantage.
Any thoughts, Tabitha/Glen/ESJ?
Labor is for stinky-head poo-pants who stink, Liberals is teh bestest.
Stop feeding the trolls, they get off on wasting our time. Save your energy for Glen and ESJ, who every now and then actually have something to say and will debate issues.
Possum,
I don’t see many Liberal wets switching back to Howard over this issue alone.
First, they’ll probably see this as what it is – a half-baked attempt to win them back by performing a policy half-backflip without giving them what they really want – a national apology over the stolen generation.
More importantly, however, I don’t think Aboriginal reconciliation is a vote turner for Liberal wets (at least, not as much as it was 5-10 years ago). The sort of announcement that will make them turn back would be if Howard closed down the detention centres in Nauru or reversed Andrews’ policy decision on Sudanese refugees. Or if Labor brought out its private school hit list again…(shakes his head…)
LaborVoter @ 60
Do not play with our remaining brain cells. Is that the real info or are you being provocative? Need to plan.
CTEP,
Wouldn’t the appropriate time for Rudd to outline his vision for Australia’s future be at the official Labor election launch? If he does it now, Howard can drown him out by immediately calling the election…
I dont see it either SL
Call the election please – ALp has announced a good deal of useful policy statements – the government would love to have the Opposition role out major policy before the election is called and use the resources of the pulic service to either attack it or roll out their own adaptation
Is it just me, or has the Labor camp been totally silent today? I haven’t heard anything from anyone on any issue today at all… (apart from Martin Ferguson talking about roads)
Are they waiting for something?
This Morgan poll is no different from the others – it was taken at the same time as the phone poll 59/41 and, shows a primary of 49.5 for Labor. This is all MOE stuff really. Cant understand the comments calling it a move hither or tither. You would need a series to say that and as we have seen already some Morgans have been quite erratic. This poll means nothing.
The Newspoll will be the interesting one if it dips below 55 but, it could do that within MOE as well. So I wouldnt be jumping the gun.
——————————————————–
“I think the fact this is being announced so close to the election is going to put an election gloss on it,†she said on Channel 9 today.
“And it’s a pity it couldn’t have been done at another time when there was that groundswell of community support and people were just aching to see change,†she said.
Ms Gillard said a similar proposal had been in Labor’s election platform for a very long time, and the party would support the Liberal plan.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22573226-5012863,00.html
CTEP, when Howard beat Keating, he certainly didn’t need to outline his agenda. People have a reasonable alternative to Howard in Rudd, and he has a stratospheric approval rating of 60%+ in all polls. Quite frankly, that’s all that’s needed of an opposition leader: that he’s competent, and that people want the govt out. These two conditions are clearly satisfied.
20 John, I hope for a million dollars. Unfortunately it doesn’t ensure it will happen. Hope springs eternal I suppose. I hope the Libs are left without a seat but I don’t expect it to happen.