From one red morgue to another

Today has brought a fascinating development in the battle for control of the Senate, with South Australian Legislative Council “No Pokies” member Nick Xenophon throwing his hat into the ring. Xenophon pulled off one of the most sensational achievements in Australia’s recent electoral history at the election last March, when his ticket polled 20.5 per cent of the statewide vote – only 5.5 per cent less than the Liberal Party. As well as getting himself re-elected (he first snuck in with 2.9 per cent at the 1997 election), this also secured election for running mate Ann Bressington, who believed she was only there for moral support, and came within a hair’s breadth of putting into parliament John Darley, the number three candidate who had assured his wife he had no chance of winning. Given the Greens’ historical weakness in South Australia and the probable demise of the Democrats, the most likely outcome in South Australia had been a three-all split between Labor and Liberal. The smart money would now be on the Liberals losing their third seat to Xenophon, meaning an end to the long and not terribly eventful parliamentary career of Grant Chapman. In other words, the Coalition now appears all but certain to lose its absolute majority. PortlandBet has smartly removed South Australia from its newly launched Senate betting market.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

595 comments on “From one red morgue to another”

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  1. 388
    Scorpio Says:
    October 11th, 2007 at 11:46 pm

    Loved Clarke & Dawe on the 7-30 report this evening. It was particularly “hard-hitting” compared to their general skit.

    Well worth a look for those who missed it. It’s the last one on the link.

    http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s2057203.htm

    The ALP should ask them if they could use it as one of their election ads.Sums it all up doesn’t it.

  2. Geoffrey @ 396

    No poliyical party in their right mind would even contemplate increasing the GST with a $17 billion surplus. Especially after all the drama relating to it’s initial proposal and introduction.

    What Rudd is probably doing is trying to further lock in the vote in both NSW and Vic where they have been crying poor in relation to the split-up of the GST pool and the preference given to States like Queensland where they get a percentage more than their contribution.

    He’ll probably offer to review the distribution if elected. Doesn’t mean though, that he will actually do anything about it though. Won’t want to get offside with his fellow Queenslanders, will he.

  3. Scorpio 393 et al. If you scroll or search back, you will see that the biblical refs are mine. The Abbott didn’t do that exactly; just made my mind run.

    Sorry, William. Not trying to get on the most postering list, just remiss.

  4. Nath

    Cunctator ran from hannibal and never openly engaged him in battle
    thats where the link to howard is-not sure if rudd is hannibal though

    weary and short of supplies hannibal eventually gave up (after 3+yrs?)

    cunctator=delayer

    Geoffrey
    the Lib party GST scare thingy is not due till next week-but no harm i suppose in trying to run it up the flagpole 🙂

  5. [ a spelling or grammatical error ]

    None of you guys going on and on and on about spelling, etc better ever complain if someone takes a thread of topic.

  6. Glen, I’M an ALP supporter..Probably from before you were born. I’m not very left wing(although more so than Adam).. I haven’t been a member of the ALP for about 15 years (That’s possibly also before you were born). I don’t relish being called a hypocrite, but I bear it,.. I’ve been called worse things by people whose opinions I respect more than yours.
    But, Glen, you must realise that JWH has made us look carefully at the weasle factor in words.
    Of course you haven’t “stolen” phrases from any website.. nobody’s saying that, but you must realise that “free to air” opinions on any website can be used freely, and even adapted. They are still the website’s opinions.
    Probably what you meant to say was that I am hypercritical,. But ,Glen, this is what 30 years of non core promises and statements that don’t mean what they sound like have left me…. looking under every phrase to see the lie coiled up underneath.
    Sorry if this offends you Glen, but that’s the plain truth.

  7. Adam, you zest for etymology has something of the passion of the Surgeon of Crowthorne about it. It’s a ripper yarn if you havn’t read it.

    Good evening, Glen. Wouldn’t worry yourself with this one, son. It’s a proper book. For starters, the punctuation is of a very high degree of difficulty. Better off sticking to your regular email “hymn sheet” from HQ. On a good day, you display a great deal of creativity in shaping it for us with your cut and pastes. Please don’t feel that your efforts are unappreciated.

  8. Grammatical errors here are capital crimes. Which makes me wonder, JWH dog whistles the right on Tuesday re capital punishment then blows them off tonight with the promise of a preamble for “the first Australians”. It wouldn’t have happened a couple of years ago. What I saw of the speech looked like a AA meeting testimonial. Sack-cloth and ashes stuff. He’s desperate.

  9. I have been convinced, despite my misgivings, of something by somebody. Mysterious eh?

    I’m sure you’re all enjoy repeating the same dialogue with Glen as you do every single thread, and having a new method of attacking JH with, but I have a proposal:

    The election will be called tomorrow.

    Anybody want to take the bet? Probably not much you can do to enforce it over the interweb thingie… but hey, if anybody wants to raise me my 75c….

    Or you can continue bagging Glen. Either or.

  10. Glen, it’s like I advised you a couple of months or so ago. Come on over to the “dark side” with us.

    You will have plenty of material to work with and they will probably leave you alone about the grammar, comma’s and full stops.

  11. Ah oops, just realised you Eastern states people are already at Friday. We’re a bit slower in SA.

    By ‘tomorrow’ i meant Friday.

    Apologies

  12. Damien J Says: @ 414,

    Howard might be wearing one of those “hair shirt” undergarments like Abbott.

    He certainly looked as though he had a bad itch tonight.

  13. Gee thanks Max. ‘Cause we’ve never talked about when the election will be called…

    I’ll have a piece of that 75c action. I’m afiguring parliament will be back next week. It’s crazy, but it just might work…

  14. Gusface

    Actually you could argue that Cunctator is actually Rudd:

    1/ Hannibal fought in Italy for over a decade but was not strong enough to destroy Rome.

    2/ He left Italy to go back to North Africa to protect Carthage from an invading Roman army.

    3/ Cunctator knew he couldn’t defeat Hannibal in battle so he avoided battle and fought a war of attrition to weaken Hannibal.

    Howard could be Hannibal. Howard keeps attacking but Rudd/Cunctator rarely fights him head on. Howard has to keep running back to Bennelong/Cathage to protect his home base. Rudd/Cunctator eventually weakens Howard/Hannibal by indirect attacks.

  15. Scorpio 393 type tony abbott overcoats.

    Abbott attacks Catholic political interference

    The World Today – Thursday, 11 October , 2007 12:18:00
    Reporter: Emma Alberici

    ‘EMMA ALBERICI: The Minister told the gathering that the objective of the legislation was sound, even if its execution hadn’t been. But it’s questions about the morality of the legislation from the Catholic Social Justice lobby that have so riled the Health Minister.

    TONY ABBOTT: What the Catholic Social Justice crowd are really saying, is that, according to their criteria of morality, no individual could be worse off, in order to make any other individual better off.

    And I have to say, that struck me as an extremely odd proposition, because, if for argument’s sake, it might under certain circumstances be considered just to say to someone with two overcoats, well, we’re going to take one of your overcoats away, so that someone with no overcoat can have one, why couldn’t you, at least hypothetically say, justly, to someone earning a high wage, that we will somewhat reduce your wage, so that another person can be employed as well as you.

    LIBBY ROGERSON: I don’t think I’d label the whole of the legislation immoral, I’d say that some of the impact of it is immoral. A young person from Mount Druitt going for his or her first job, they’re in no position to negotiate their pay and conditions. Or, the group that I deal with a lot, which would be Sudanese humanitarian refugees. They’re desperate for work, absolutely desperate to get jobs. They’re in no position to negotiate their wages and conditions.

    EMMA ALBERICI: But doesn’t that assume at the outset that the employer is the bad guy, that they are, if you like, going to act immoral, that they will necessarily do the wrong thing by these people?

    LIBBY ROGERSON: No, but some do.

    TONY ABBOTT: The priesthood gives someone the power to consecrate bread and wine into the body and blood of Christ, it doesn’t give someone the power to convert poor logic into good logic, a political argument is not transformed into a moral argument simply because it’s delivered with an enormous dollop of sanctimony, that can often be the problem when religious people start dealing in politics.

    I do think that if church men spent more time encouraging virtue in people, and less time demanding a virtue from governments, we would have, ultimately, a better society and a church that is more respected’.

    Still, huh? from me.

    Nothing on the GG or SMH, that I can find.

  16. Tony Abbott has gone mad:

    “And I have to say, that struck me as an extremely odd proposition, because, if for argument’s sake, it might under certain circumstances be considered just to say to someone with two overcoats, well, we’re going to take one of your overcoats away, so that someone with no overcoat can have one, why couldn’t you, at least hypothetically say, justly, to someone earning a high wage, that we will somewhat reduce your wage, so that another person can be employed as well as you.”

    That was in a talk he gave to the IPA

  17. [The election will be called tomorrow. ]

    Won’t happen – Bali Bombing Anniversary, media and families of Victims will rightly crucify him .

  18. LOL Crispy, ok, I’ll take that. But hey, speculating the election date is mildly better then this endless Glen banter… ah whatever tickles you I guess.

    Raise the 75c? Well I’m thinking that if the election is going to be called before parliament, it has to be tomorrow (today.. Friday, whatever. Bloody timezones.) I highly doubt it will be called Saturday, and it can’t be called Sunday… because Howard has to let the MP’s know by Saturday if parliament will be sitting.

    I just cant see the libs sitting again unless they can name a reason for doing so – ie some important legislation to pass – but surely we would have heard about that by now.

  19. Oh dear me, Roman History again! Fabius Maximus Cunctator was all that paulk says.
    However he was also the namesake of the Fabian society, which promoted the introduction of socialist objectives by gradual increments rather than violent revolution.
    This always attracted me, and I daresay also informs Rudd’s agenda.. which BTW is a singular word in English, and means a list of things to done.

  20. Crikey W I love the Tony Abbott overcoats thing. He’s saying reducing wages makes it possible to hire more people. A man with two overcoats gets one of his coats taken away and given to a man with no overcoats.

    Of course the problem for Tony is that WorkChoices ignores all the blokes who have dozens of overcoats, a truck of overcoats parked out the back, and an overcoat factory in their name as well. And to them shall be given – more freaking overcoats.

    That really sums up why WorkChoices sucks and Abbott, personally, is stuffed.

  21. Crikey Whitey Says: @ 422,

    {an enormous dollop of sanctimony, that can often be the problem when religious people start dealing in politics.}

    Sounds like he was giving a detailed description of himself, there.

    Thanks for the post CW, ot was certainly worth bringing up. Shows just how desperate they are becoming now. They must think Rudd is covered in axle grease, very slippery and hard to get a hold of.

  22. [ name a reason for doing so – ie some important legislation to pass ]

    How about a special bonus payment for all MPs who lose their seat at the coming election?

  23. #429

    Ah, I didn’t factor that in. Good point

    In that case… parliament must be re-sitting. Unless it’s going to be called on Saturday? Wouldn’t get much attention that night, but would in the Sunday papers I guess…

    Back to mindless speculation then. My new bet is calling on the 22nd of October for the 1st of Decmber. Looks like my 75c is gone though…

  24. “And I have to say, that struck me as an extremely odd proposition, because, if for argument’s sake, it might under certain circumstances be considered just to say to someone with two overcoats, well, we’re going to take one of your overcoats away, so that someone with no overcoat can have one, why couldn’t you, at least hypothetically say, justly, to someone earning a high wage, that we will somewhat reduce your wage, so that another person can be employed as well as you.”

    So Tony is saying that it is a good idea to even out wages so every body gets a fair go – that is the path he is treading. Tony wants to be a Communist. Well communism for the poor that is. One great big working poor.

  25. Paul K

    the rudd analogy may be closer to alexander(iskander)

    alexander was considered inexperienced and upon the death of phillip had to prove his mettle and battle the perception of inexperience

    defeating whatshisface was considered impossible and the actual campaigns were routs with alexander ultimately triumphing

    legend has it that beside the geordian knot (union shibboleth) alexander was the first (in western history) to inspire universal loyalty and admiration among his subject peoples

  26. God I hope you’re right Max. Bring it on, before we all disappear up Glen’s fundament.

    Roman history, Latin declensions. There are far too many private school oldboys in here.

  27. You have to love this bit, too

    TONY ABBOTT: The priesthood gives someone the power to consecrate bread and wine into the body and blood of Christ, it doesn’t give someone the power to convert poor logic into good logic, a political argument is not transformed into a moral argument simply because it’s delivered with an enormous dollop of sanctimony, that can often be the problem when religious people start dealing in politics.

    Attributed afore.

  28. Gusface,

    The Persians lost mainly because they were so corrupt that they were over-confident and their generals were morons who didn’t have the talent to lead armies. So maybe you could draw an analogy there with the Libs but I don’t really see Rudd as Alexander.

  29. Gusface, considering your biography of Alexander the Great, our current Alexander is a bit of a Downer! A poor actor ,too.. A sandwich of ham and Mayo!
    Time I finally went to bed!

  30. For those interested in UK News, here is the URL of the Guardian Weekly Podcast.

    Two of the items include:

    [We hear from Bill Clinton about Hillary’s chances and how he’s envisaging the role of “First Man”, or perhaps “First Laddie”.

    Back down the road in Westminster, there’s Gordon Brown’s account of why Britain is not having an election after all, followed by a more critical analysis from the Guardian’s political editor.]

    http://www.guardianweekly.co.uk/podcast

  31. Albert Ross Says:
    October 12th, 2007 at 12:24 am
    Tony Abbott has gone mad:

    Just goes to show you what twelve months of adverse polling will do to some people.

    He always was a bit crazy, but now he has joined Howard, Downer and Hockey in the “deranged” classification.

  32. Right at 430 Max, I meant. But feel free to donate the 75c to William forthwith if you’re conceding. I’m sure he’ll be thrilled.

  33. About Abbot’s two overcoats – is the notion of progressive taxation dead? I really can’t understand what he’s arguing in that piece. It’s just daft enough to have fellow travellers nodding sagely rather than attempting to unravel its meaning. Also, if he’s right, the church’s lack of success in demanding virtue from this government is remarkable. Seems to me you can buy its indulgence simply through ever increasing subsidies for its schools. But there’s a very long history of that!

  34. Gusface,

    I don’t see Rudd as Alexander but the Persians did lose because they were so corrupt they were over-confident and their generals had no talent to lead an army. So maybe there’s an analogy with the Libs and the Persians?

  35. {How about a special bonus payment for all MPs who lose their seat at the coming election?}

    Bang! There goes the rest of the surplus.

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