From one red morgue to another

Today has brought a fascinating development in the battle for control of the Senate, with South Australian Legislative Council “No Pokies” member Nick Xenophon throwing his hat into the ring. Xenophon pulled off one of the most sensational achievements in Australia’s recent electoral history at the election last March, when his ticket polled 20.5 per cent of the statewide vote – only 5.5 per cent less than the Liberal Party. As well as getting himself re-elected (he first snuck in with 2.9 per cent at the 1997 election), this also secured election for running mate Ann Bressington, who believed she was only there for moral support, and came within a hair’s breadth of putting into parliament John Darley, the number three candidate who had assured his wife he had no chance of winning. Given the Greens’ historical weakness in South Australia and the probable demise of the Democrats, the most likely outcome in South Australia had been a three-all split between Labor and Liberal. The smart money would now be on the Liberals losing their third seat to Xenophon, meaning an end to the long and not terribly eventful parliamentary career of Grant Chapman. In other words, the Coalition now appears all but certain to lose its absolute majority. PortlandBet has smartly removed South Australia from its newly launched Senate betting market.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

595 comments on “From one red morgue to another”

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  2. 345
    Adam

    We are talking about the preamble debacle for the republic referendum, where Murray’s work was rewritten (ie mangled) by that well known literary genius, Howard. Not the Noble prize.

  6. 348 you’ll see it differently when the streets of all those NT communities are lined with picket-fenced privately owned cottages mortgaged to the hilt thanks to “real work” courtesy of the STEP Program (or programme according to the Aust.Govt style guide). Not that evil CDEP. Perhaps a little spectacled boy with an overbite whose dad owns a petrol station will grow up to be PM one day…

  7. Who cares about spelling when its late you’re trying to respond so quickly to an irritating poster you’re bound to make mistakes its just laughable at how many times posters feel it is their god given duty to make point out the stupidity of others…

    Xenophon=weak seriously weak you guys…its all in his surname anyone named Brown or Smith or Latham or Hewson would never win a Senate seat but because of the X he’ll probably win…….

  8. Just me – oh i see. Well, he deserves to be shafted whatever he does, and he certainly doesn’t deserve any prizes. He should never be forgiven for his role in the vile slandering of Manning Clark in the great “Order of Lenin” hoax, which he instigated. He is nothing but an intellectual hitman for the extreme right, like most of the nest of vipers at Quadrant.

  11. “ShowsOn Says:
    If a word is now considered english, the plural form involves adding “s”.

    Fair enough, but I come in here to study the poll datums, not debate the inherent silliness of English.

    But ah, you’ve got to love the Yanks. I came across an article in a film industry magazine which referred to meetings that ‘had been skedded for Tuesday’. Can’t wait to sked my own meeting sometime. Also information was provided by a ‘tenpercenter’, which I guess is short for ‘agent’. Though the ones out here would have to be ‘fifteenpercenters’.

  13. Adam: I agree. Remember when Howard gave the Chasers a spray saying that if they were celebrities anyone could be? I think Les and poet could be subbed into that sentence.

  14. [I came across an article in a film industry magazine which referred to meetings that ‘had been skedded for Tuesday’]

    You’ve been reading Variety?

  16. Lateline: Best of. General Dick Berlijn, Dutch Chief of Defence, speaking at attention, without flags, with no evident bias, about the Dutch expectations for their involvement in the wars. Politics aside.

    A little rain is falling here!

  18. Glen. Forget the spelling. Look under the K and L keys. The squiggly thing is a comma. Think of it as the literary equivalent of taking a breath now and then while addressing th HR Nicholls Society.

    I’ll shut up.

    Whoa, no hang on… are you saying Nick Xenophon is going to get elected because he has an interesting name? Does this mean Kadir Satambalam has a chance?

  19. oakeshott country
    The Irish, myself included are always a bit long winded, and at the time they wrote their preamble were preoccupied with religion and oppression.
    How about the following abbreviated version for Australia?
    “We, the people of Australia, seeking to promote the common good, with due observance of Prudence, Justice and Charity, so that the dignity and freedom of the individual may be assured, true social order attained, the unity of our country preserved, and concord established with other nations,
    Do hereby adopt, enact, and give to ourselves this Constitution.”

    Notice “give to ourselves “. I think the Australian Constitution is a Statute of the Westminster Parliament.. doubtless I’ll be corrected if I’m wrong.

  20. [Who cares about spelling when its late you’re trying to respond so quickly to an irritating poster you’re bound to make mistakes its just laughable at how many times posters feel it is their god given duty to make point out the stupidity of others…]

    I don’t believe in God, so I’ll draw your attention to the hubris shown today by Downer today when he annointed himself the next treasurer of the Commonwealth of Australia.

  21. John Rocket, Paul k

    I think its sad none of you people think average Australians would support Howard and the Liberals and post on this blog because they are interested in political debate…how many times do i have to tell you fools i am not paid by the Liberal Party to do anything i post on here to let you know that in the real world there are centre-right aligned people out there…not just raving left wingers!

    Why can’t you just accept i am a normal voter who like you who enjoys politics enough to want to contribute on this blog…just because you are fanatical left wingers i dont then go and say you are Labor staffers i wont bring myself down to your level…low base politics…

  22. Adam. Murray is not my favourite writer or person, so no argument there.

    But leaving that aside, I find kind of amusing and revealing that Howard thought he could do a better job than a full time literary writer. He couldn’t of course, and just ended up producing a piece of superficial, cliché soaked vomit, which I am sure he is now pretty embarrased about.

  23. ShowsOn if you had the guts to post the media story on this Downer Treasurership thing he never said he would be he actually said that he was focused on being the FM in the Howard Government…

  24. [how many times do i have to tell you fools i am not paid by the Liberal Party to do anything i post on here ]

    Oh, ok, you do volunteer work.

    [here to let you know that in the real world there are centre-right aligned people out there…not just raving left wingers!]

    Why do you always simplfy everything to the pont of absurdity?

    [i wont bring myself down to your level…low base politics…]

    LOL! Yeah, like claiming people from an entire continent all have an inability to integrate into society. Low. Base. Politics.

  26. “Adam.. yes agree with “administrate” ICKKK!

    Also a current pet-hate: the word “Surveil”

    Heard on three TV programs and 2 movies in the last 3 months… like nails on a chalkboard for a noun- verb transbastardisation of “surveillance”, when the verb is “survey”. I hate it even more than my own made up word transbastardisation. 😉 ”

    This makes me really aggronoid!

  27. [ShowsOn if you had the guts to post the media story on this Downer Treasurership thing he never said he would be he actually said that he was focused on being the FM in the Howard Government…]

    No. He said he wants to be the next treasurer after Peter Costello.

  29. I am tonight announcing, errr, $500 billion of, err, Peter Costello’s hard-earned surplus, errr, to place a platypus tank, err, complete with platypi, err, platypodes, err, platypussies, err, in every Australian school, errr, in marginal electorates, errr, along the Princes Highway, errr, so long as the Labor states agree to match this amount, errr, let’s see Mr Rudd match that, errr, union bosses, errr, errr, errr.

  30. Glen, it’s just that you echo the Lib talking points for the day so often, and use phrases from the web site. But carry on, you fight bravely.

    364ShowsOn… yeah, it was Variety. Well spotted. A piece was clipped and emailed to me… I don’t subscribe. Perhaps if I did the language wouldn’t jar quite so much.

  31. Do not be shocked if the reconciliation amendment is a strategy for the coming election, designed entirely to distract the punters’ attention from the principal issue.

    It would be easy for Howard now to say he has been so impressed with the overwhelmingly positive (!)response to his proposal that he is bringing it forward just a bit. Like having the bills go through the Parliament in the next week or two, and having the referendum in conjunction with the election.

    The more contentious or ambiguous the language of the proposed amendment, the better. He couldn’t give a stuff about the result.

    What matters is getting the chattering classes to call him for everything over it; and have the issue – and maybe something else we have yet to hear about – dominate the period of the election campaign.

  33. Glen, I have no trouble believing the Liberal Party does not pay you for your contributions here. To do so would take a conspiracy of Dan Brown proportions and silliness to believe otherwise.

  34. “We, the people of Australia, seeking to promote the common good, with due observance of Prudence, Justice and Charity, so that the dignity and freedom of the individual may be assured, true social order attained, the unity of our country preserved, and concord established with other nations, Do hereby adopt, enact, and give to ourselves this Constitution.”

    I like it 🙂

    Rudd’s been labelled a media tart and as someone who “loves a stunt”. How would you (if so inclined) label Nick X?

    Glen, Plenty of average Australians supported Howard as he presented a blank canvas for them to project their hopes on as they didn’t like the other guy any more. Over the last eleven years he’s revealed his true colours as the whitewash slipped away for enough of them to desire a new blank canvas.

    I personally can’t see why anyone would support him, but I’m interested in hearing why. Try without reference to the Labor party, please.

  36. “Glen, it’s just that you echo the Lib talking points for the day so often, and use phrases from the web site. But carry on, you fight bravely.”

    Crispy isnt that exactly what you and the left wingers on this site do??
    Why is it a crime to support your party’s stance because you are a Liberal and not a Labor supporter. You are hypocrites!

    Also i have never stolen phrases from any website. So i dont see the point to your accusation.

    I have not done any volunteer work yet for the campaign which i find hard to believe with the amount of Labor supporters on this blog who have probably already engaged in such activities.

  37. Warning: Post number 386 was NOT the real Glen. It has punctuation. Well at least it has full stops, even if it still doesn’t have any commas.

  39. Surprise, Kina, not much. Still no light shed on my topic of the day, Tony Abbott. In the meantime, I have been out collecting rainwater. Think Nick Xenophon, think one vote.

  41. We, the people of Australia except union bosses, seeking to promote the common good, with due observance of Julie, De-Anne and Amanda wherever she is, so that the untramelled freedom of the employer may be assured, true social order attained and ruthlessly enforced as needs be, the unity of our country preserved against evil Somali teenagers, and concord established with other nations particularly very large and rich ones, Do hereby adopt, enact, and give to ourselves Control of Both Houses in perpetuity and a Nobel Prize for Les Murray amen.

  44. “Crispy isnt that exactly what you and the left wingers on this site do??”

    I don’t regurgitate ALP dot points, no. Though clearly such things exist. The Labor Party members here are pretty open about their ties, but do not tend merely to parrot whatever Rudd is on about for the day. (Not that you parrot Howard all the time either – I think the criticism of you gets a little feral at times.)

    I’m not in the ALP and I don’t volunteer for them. I just happen to think politics is about a lot more than how the economy is run. I know JWH thinks so too, but he doesn’t want to let the rest of the country in on the secret. Damascus Road conversions today notwithstanding.

  46. I read tonight that Kevin Rudd discussed with NSW ways of rearranging the states take of federal monies – NSW believe they are short changed – Nick Minchin says there is no need to up the amount as there has been significant increase over this govts time.
    if all the premiers feel this way my mind began thinking about the GST.

    How easy would it be for the new labor govt to increase the GST by 20 or 40 percent? Could this be done before the change of senate next year ?

  47. sitting back in his bunker now, thinking of the days events….i wonder what JWH is thinking???

    How did it all go wrong???…..i was supposed to retire as the undefeated 5 time conquering hero of The Party….Oh Dear Cyathinth, why don’t they love me anymore???

    Oh the things blooody Crosby-Textor are making me say to try and stave of the coming bloodbath….what next??????

    Hello Peter…..are you still interested in this leadership thing?….click….Peter, are you still there?…Peter…pleeeeaaaassseeeeee

  50. I know I should cut this out, but cannot help the need to listen to the shortly to be cast, What the Papers Say, for the latest rabbit brained scheme. Understood that myxie is part of the new history.

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