Road to nowhere

The past few days have seen a lot of discussion in the media about the state of play in all-important Queensland. On Monday, Michael McKenna of The Australian reported that the Liberals’ internal polling was worse in blue-ribbon Ryan than in any other Coalition-held Queensland seat, apart from Bonner. Liberal member Michael Johnson reportedly blames this on the government’s determination to solve western Brisbane’s traffic problems by building the Goodna bypass rather than upgrading the Ipswich Motorway, a decision made with a view to shoring up the Ipswich-based seat of Blair. As Graham Young puts it at Online Opinion: “People in Ipswich refer to the current motorway, which serves as their major link to Brisbane, as a carpark, and people in the western suburbs of Brisbane are happy to live in a quiet cul-de-sac and don’t want another link road with connections to them put through their area”. The Australian report also brings us the surprising news that Liberal polling has Gary Hardgrave leading in Moreton, held on a margin of 2.8 per cent.

Elsewhere, Labor strategists quoted by Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail say polling in regional Queensland points to “two party preferred votes north of 55 per cent”. Presumably this refers to the target marginals of Blair (5.7 per cent), Herbert (6.2 per cent), Flynn (7.7 per cent) and Hinkler (8.3 per cent). Also in the Courier-Mail, Madonna King says Liberal insiders “struggle to dispute” Labor talk that Bonner, Moreton, Blair, Herbert, Flynn and even Leichhardt (margin 10.3 per cent) are “in the bag”, although Labor is apparently less confident about Longman and Petrie. King says three-cornered contests in Leichhardt and Flynn are an “electoral gift to Labor”, while Lisa Allen of the Financial Review quotes a Liberal source lamenting the departure of Leichhardt MP Warren Entsch and his “98 per cent name recognition in that electorate”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

378 comments on “Road to nowhere”

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  1. General Wenck wont have broken through until the Labor lead is less than 10% in the polls when that happens id be worried…if i were a Labor man…

  3. [ sincerely hope the Coalition wins because it will show how full of &^)# you have been and how full of hubris and arrogance you were]

    Stop showing hubris.

  4. Adam,

    Is the LDP living in the real world?

    [ The Prime Minister, John Howard, may lose the seat of Bennelong in part because of his gun control laws.

    The Liberty and Democracy Party (LDP) has announced that its candidate for Bennelong will be Mr David Leyonhjelm, the party�s Secretary/Treasurer and a long-standing sporting shooter. ]

  7. The LDP has been around for a bit, it’s like Catallaxy formed a political party 🙂

    They arent really serious, normally roping members into positions.

    The problems with libertarians and parties is that they arent usually compatible.

  10. Possum, I agree that Labor winning Wannon would be a very considerable shock. However I nominate O’Connor as the sleeper. Internal party polling leaked exclusively to me shows that Labor’s 20yo Christian radical mophead candidate Dominic Rose will sweep the wheatbelt like a new William Jennings Bryan, the prairie populist of the 1890s. He will come to Canberra and carry the Collectivisation of Agriculture Bill 2008 by acclamation.

  11. [The Liberty and Democracy Party (LDP) has announced that its candidate for Bennelong will be Mr David Leyonhjelm, the party�s Secretary/Treasurer and a long-standing sporting shooter. ]

    So did he defect from the sporting shooters party? 😛

    Who here agrees with this?

    “The LDP believes in individual freedom. Other political parties want to control your decisions on smoking, drinking, gambling, risk taking, recreations, shopping decisions and sexual decisions. We say it’s your choice, not the government’s.”

    I agree with this statement. But I don’t think it means the government can’t tax alcohol and tobacco products. I don’t see how taxes stop people from deciding to smoke and drink, it just means they have to pay more.

    “Shopping decisions”, well, surely governments have a right to stop people shopping for some things, like nuclear weapons, dangerous chemicals. So this isn’t all black and white.

    Regarding sexual decisions, if you extend that to marriage, I probably agree most strongly. I think marriage should be privatised, I have no idea why you need a government certificate to marry someone. The state took on that role due to religious wars, but we no longer have that problem in our country, so there is no reason why the government should have anything to do with any marriages.

  14. I have to agree with Glen. The hubris is making me sick in the stomach because this election is NOT won yet!
    A Howard win again will be a bitter pill (give me cyanide)! It is all well and good to dream and I love thinking about and dreaming about a Labor win but I am not comfortable with a false sense of hope which means not breathing that sigh of relief until it is called on the night!

  15. Hubris from the Left

    Adam #110 ‘Ryan is a big fat ripe Queensland fig ready to fall’

    Realist #113 ‘Queensland is going to landslide for our Kevvie… We are going to bash Howard so hard’

    GG #190 ‘We win. You lose. Induge yourself. Please.’

    Adam #192 ‘Any of the three Melbourne “crown jewels” – Kooyong, Goldstein, Higgins – would be a humungous shock. So would Gippsland, which the Peasants Party has held since 1922.’

    PC# 199 ‘Out of the Kooyong, Goldstein, Higgins triumvirate, which would have the most credible chance of going rogue on election night?’

    The list goes on and on and one…the moment you stop talking about Safe Coalition seats being gains by the ALP is the moment i will cease calling the left full of hubris…

  16. The problem with Ryan is that a lot of those young people are not enrolled. I’m sure the ALP types are more aware of this than I am, but as a UQ student I’d estimate that 5-10% of the 20.08% as either not on the roll or on the roll in another electorate somewhere (last place they lived, parents etc.).

  18. I have just planted a whole backyard of hubris. Apparently it blossoms every three years. But, can be accelerated with bullshit.

  19. [ there is no reason why the government should have anything to do with any marriages ]

    There have been laws for thousands of years on marriage. And they have been there mainly to make sure women and children had property rights if they were abandoned by men. It’s unrealistic to suppose government can wash their hands of marriage. Or would you prefer we send abandoned women and children to the orphanages like we used to?

  20. “Christian radical mophead candidate”….”a new William Jennings Bryan”…” Collectivisation of Agriculture Bill 2008 by acclamation.”

    Roflol!

    Catallaxy – http://catallaxyfiles.com/

    The antipodean libertarian blog – If you cant recite Frederic Bastiat’s “The Law” in French or quote freely from ‘Cato’s Letters or Essays on Liberty, Civil and Religious and Other Important Subjects’, you are obviously a communist.

  21. Those interested in a little more about General Wenck might be interested in “The Last Battle” by Cornelius Ryan – the story of the fall of Berlin in WW2.

    Its a good book, and insightful for anyone wanting to understand the behavior and psychology of deluded leadership in stressful situations.

    I’ve seen similar behavior in companies I’ve worked at 🙂

    (PS Wenck never tried to rescue Berlin, but rather worked to allow its civilians to escape westward to avoid the Soviets)

  22. Gusface 209# the best display of Hubris yet…keep it coming….even better than Rudd calling the election won on May 1st 2007…

    I dont know how the Left would take losing the election from here perhaps move to Tasmania lol.

    If the Coalition does win i sincerely hope Howard says ‘This is the sweetest victory of them all’ because it will illustrate how the ALP supporters got way ahead of themselves it aint over till its over…be happy you are so far ahead but that is no guarantee for victory…

  26. Does anyone know anything about these people?

    The LDP was until recently called the Liberal Democratic Party, but had to change its name under the new rule designed to shaft Liberals for Forests. John Humphreys, who ran for the party at the 2004 ACT election and is this year’s Queensland Senate candidate, occasionally pops up at this and other blogs.

    William, are you making any progress on installing an “ignore this user” option on this blog? You said some time ago you would look into it.

    Yeah, I was kind of hoping you’d forgotten about that. It looks like you’re going to have to continue ignoring people the old-fashioned way.

  27. OK – shocker for the night – Banks going to the Libs and KR forming government.

    The margins been going down consistently for a decade, lots of new effluents – could be the wildcard.

  30. Its interesting that the best located MP offices in Tasmania are the Greens at constitution dock in hobart, Labor has ratty offices in the middle of nowhere.

  32. Well, at least even you agree Glen, even if the you don’t call the election right now, you, like any sensible person realises that Tasmania is in the bag for the ALP.

  34. One of the LDP’s candidates is Lisa Milat. Hmmm… guns, the Milat family – why don’t I like the sound of this?

    Glen, you can’t win Banks without a candidate – why don’t you nominate? Oh of course you’re not a pentecostalist loony, sorry you’re not eligible.

  37. The LDP website lists a whole bunch of candidates but doesn’t say where any of them are candidates for, apart from the one in Bennelong. These folks have a few things to learn.

  39. [One of the LDP’s candidates is Lisa Milat. Hmmm… guns, the Milat family – why don’t I like the sound of this?]

    Hmm, interesting to say the least – the name alone will guarantee little or no votes.

  41. Dobell and Robertson are interesting demographically in that there are indeed large numbers of retirees. Therefore there are also large numbers of aged care workers and nurses. There is higher than average blue collar workers as well as large numbers of young people in hospitality and retail. One of the biggest employers is Gosford hospital.
    Large numbers commute to Sydney because there is not the work for them on the Central Coast and workers can earn much more by travelling the 70km to Sydney.

    Many of the long term retiree resident are retired blue collar workers. Young people and women are especially aware of the adverse effects of workchoices. High petrol prices, interest rates and the inadequate broadband services are common complaints.

    Ticehurst was an electrical engineer turned lightning chaser. Several months ago he moved his office from The Entrance to the Tuggerah business park, an area not services by public transport and almost inaccessible to anyone but the most diligent constituent. Maybe the Right@Work protests outside his office scared him off. He may well have some friends but it appears he has aliented more. The Libs announced a truck load of cash here early but nothing in the last few months. dont think that this means they think they are winning.

  42. Shocker for the night

    Melbourne Ports falls the Libs – due to

    1)strong tide of gentrification improving the Libs primaries.

    2)some backlash against KR’s “me-tooism” pushes the Green’s primary up at the expense of ALP

    3) Green preferences still break 8 to 1 in favour of labor, but are second last to be excluded in the count

    Family first preferences, remnants of the Democrat vote and lastly the minority of green preferences push LNP over the line and Melbourne Ports falls to a non labor party for first time since Federation

    Truly shocking…..

  43. [ I dont know how the Left would take losing the election ]

    Glen,

    Yes, I know you think it’s hubris to point out the obvious but lots of non-lefties are voting Labor this time around. Hence the polls.

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