ACNielsen: 56-44

Tasmanian reader Blackbird informs us that according to the ABC news (which goes to air earlier in Tasmania because daylight saving has already begun there), tomorrow’s ACNielsen poll will show Labor with a two-party lead of 56-44, down from 57-43 last month. More details to follow.

UPDATE: Labor’s primary vote is down two points from last month to 47 per cent, while the Coalition is up one to 40 per cent. There were further attitudinal questions which you can read all about at The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

615 comments on “ACNielsen: 56-44”

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  1. I’m puzzled at this contant mantra that somehow the ALP is in urgent need of “reform” while the Liberal Party is just fine, thank you. Since 1972 the ALP and the Liberals have won seven federal elections each. Labor is in power in all six states and both territories, and has won more than 20 state and territory elections in a row. The Libs last won a lower house majority in any state election in 1996 (Victoria). Labor has been leading in the federal polls by a mile all year, and the last time I looked was still leading in all the state polls as well. If the Libs lose this federal election, as seems very likely, they will be out of office everywhere for the first time ever. Labor is by all accounts rolling in money, and Labor campaigns are having to turn volunteers away, as we heard just before. We’ll soon see who is in need of reform and who is not.

  2. Costello has conceded the electorate is sick and tired of waiting. Perhaps this is a sign the election will be called. He also admits there is no such thing as a safe seat.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22550362-11949,00.html

    I think Costello would prefer to be back in Melb and hitting the hustings rather than sitting next to the man he despises. It might also be setting himself up for ‘See, I told you so, they electorate didn’t want to wait but Howard did, he is the bad man not me’.

  4. Adam, the Libs are also in need of reform. particularly NSW. Nothing will gaurantee eternal A.L.P government more than the religious right. In fact you should be hoping the Libs dont reform.

  6. If candour were ‘refreshing’ the one nation party would be the equivalent of a schwepps ad. I think you’d have to widen you criteria .

  9. Amanda Vanstone (and Bronwyn Bishop) both fall into the category of effective in opposition, which justifes a place on the frontbench when their side wins, and then not up to it (if not disastrous) when in government. I am interested to see who in the current ALP front bench will fall into that category.

    My suspicion is that Mrs Mirabella may actually be quite effective in opposition.

  10. Adam

    Ive noted the level of damascene dispatches has increased significantly lately

    Nath,ESJ

    perhaps the last line of defence is insidious attack for the nearly moribund Liberal Party

    Ps the Accord (you know hawkeys deal with unions/big business to pull Oz out of howards budgetary mess)
    actually was part of the ALP restucture to be more relevant to the community-Worstchoices has totally divorced the Liberal party from the electorate

  12. True about the NSW Libs too – way too many logs stuck in safe seats. Barry O’Farrell has missed a golden opportunity if Howard goes – he could have placed a lot of them in jobs and had a series of by-elections if he had the cojones.

  13. Mick Young? John Button? Neal Blewett? Even Graham Richardson! Come on, dudes. The Hawke ministry was one of the finest bunch of brains ever assmbled on the treasury benches.

  15. Re: Vanstone

    There is a difference between Ministers who are good at the politics and good at running their departments. Vanstone was generally good at the politics but terrible with administration. I admired her courage but was appalled at many of the decisions she made. Personally I wouldn’t have her on a list of best Ministers but I can understand why some others might.

  16. #442
    I agree Chinster. The last thing a Lib backbencher needs is to cool his/her heels in Parliament while their ALP opponent is wearing out shoe leather in their marginal electorate.

  22. gusface, no I dont know Glen but I have bagged him here because the ALP are going to win this election. I think you have me confused with someone else. Why dont you go shoot someone else for disloyalty.

  23. Firstly, thanks to Adam, Chris Curtis, Derek Corbett and BaztheSpaz (excellent nom de guerre! never fails to make me smile!) for your help in sorting out the union/ALP membership connection. NSW does seem a little more hardcore though… interesting, given Latham’s courting of the contract/consultant class last election… I would’ve thought they’d have made it a little more free. Anyway, once again, thanks for responding.

    I also find myself agreeing with Sean’s comment at 411… I too think Insiders is overrated and, beyond everything, kinda boring and predictable. As if their task is… week after week… to singlehandedly attempt to compensate for the right-wing paranoia concerning the perceived bias of the 7:30 Report/Lateline.

    Always, always… two right-wing crazies and a token “lefty” (typically) female sitting in the middle being talked over… Robust debate… nah! Devasting observations….nah! Insight into the inner sanctum… nah! Paul Kelly… double nah! And from where in hell do they drag their vox tri-poli? (Though one chick made me laugh a couple of weeks ago when she complained about the price of horse feed!) It’s all sorta dull really, the format, the participants… the ‘debates’.

    All you contributing to Pollbludger, are, in my humble opinion, far more interesting _and_ insightful than Insiders.

  25. Paul K.

    On Vanstone and administration. My canberra public service sources (all from the left and generally not sympathetic to the Howard government) always maintain that AV was terribly lazy and didn’t do the work required. The range of sources also compliment Ruddock, Downer and Brough for being hard workers and on top of the brief.

    As for Gareth Gareth, wasn’t it ashtrays that got thrown?

  27. gusface, you have confused me. I think because I expressed the wish that the ALP reform to become a Social Democrat Party you percieve me as a Liberal or creature of the Right. Cease and desist.

  29. blackburnpseph ,

    I had a run in with Amanda V over an 8 year old ophaned girl whom she refused entry into Australia even though her only surviving family members were in Australia. What really annoyed me was that she delegated everything and couldn’t be bothered with the details. It was all too much hard work for her.

  30. Will @ 452 said

    Costello has conceded the electorate is sick and tired of waiting

    I always thought 1 December as the likely poll date with the election being called around 20 October with a 6 week run up. Am now starting to think it may even be 8 December poll.

    Rodent doesn’t care about parliament sitting again or costs. All he cares about is himself. The public, media whatever can huff and buff about “its time” and it means NOTHING to him.

    He has ruled by decree for so long knowing his “colleagues” are too gutless to challenge him he can do what he wants. Period.

    If he wins this will continue. Lose – when its all been a good ride and he will start to make some real money.

    Another couple weekends before its called.

  31. Generally agree that the 1983 Hawke ministry were extremely talented but it did drop off from about 1989 onwards.

    Besides those mentioned, my worst 3 from the Hawke / Keating years

    David Beddall
    Nick Bolkus
    Brian Howe
    and Leo McLeay as Speaker (just where did I leave my bike?)

    And for the Howard years

    Danna Vale
    Deanne Kelly
    Eric Abetz (he is just creepy..)

  32. # 476 – Wilson Tuckey? Mark Vaile? Peter McGauran? Julian McGauran? Dana Vale? Rod Kemp? Warwick Parer? John Herron?

    God…I feel like I could go on forever.

  37. The weakness in out system is that Prime Ministers will often pick good media performers as Ministers even though their managerial and organising skills are non-existent. Everybody thinks they’re great because they answer questions well on TV but meanwhile their departments are going to hell.

  38. There is a wealth of great talent about to come onto Rudd’s front bench – Shorten, Combet, Emerson and Debus to name just four. It will be the best ministry we’ve had for twenty years.

  40. # 484 – Quite right. I stand corrected. Mind you, he almost certainly would have done a better job most of the others. Christopher Pyne?

  44. Laurie Oakes on Channel Nine seems to think Howard will definitely recall Parliament and delay the election as long as possible.

  45. esj
    sorry just off with a few union bosses saying BOO (oh, and we thought we would close down a dress shop or two)

    Nath
    i despise Howard- i mean talking about reforming labor is so right field that i felt a response was warranted
    mea culpa

  47. CTEP #305 says
    “I think you’re also assuming that Oppositions win government based on policy etc. I can’t recall the last election that that’s happened.”
    Maybe Whitlam 72?.. and keeping to “the Program” during the Oil Crisis caused his premature (IMO) demise.
    There are innumerable counter examples.. Hewson and GST, maybe Latham and everything!

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