Phoney war dispatches: business as usual edition

• Today’s Hobart Mercury reports on a poll of the northern Tasmanian seats of Bass and Braddon, conducted by Melbourne company MarketMetrics on behalf of the Wilderness Society. From a sample of 492, it is said to show Labor on 61 per cent of the vote across the two seats, although it is not clear if this is primary or two-party preferred. In Bass, 27 per cent of respondents said they will be more likely to vote Liberal if Malcolm Turnbull rejects the Tamar Valley pulp mill proposal, while only 6 per cent said they will be more likely to do so if he approves it.

• Labor has been very slightly embarrassed by the emergence of a university newspaper article by Dominic Rose, its play-dead 20-year-old candidate for Wilson Tuckey’s seat of O’Connor. Writing earlier this year in the student organ of the most august University of Western Australia, Rose expressed concern that Kevin Rudd came over as a “filthy Liberal” who seemed insufficiently enthusiastic about “killing capitalist pig dogs and establishing a dictatorship of the proletariat”. The comments seem to have been made in a spirit of undergraduate humour, and the kid proved quite adept at batting off deliveries from press gallery hard-nose Samantha Maiden of The Australian.

• The Financial Review’s Rear Window column notes that retiring MPs’ parliamentary offices are being stripped by renovators, “which should be a firm indicator that no more sitting weeks are contemplated”. In the Poll Bludger’s experience, it doesn’t usually pay to read too much into this kind of thing. The report further notes: “The smart money yesterday was still on the Prime Minister calling the election on or before October 13 – just as NSW school holidays end – for an election on either November 10 or 17, through the bookies still favour November 24. If Howard were to leave it until October 14, he would have to answer to taxpayers, with pollies incurring expenses for an unnecessary flight to Canberra for a non-existent sitting week”.

• John Ferguson of the Herald Sun brings us the unsurprising news that “a marathon election campaign aimed at destroying Labor leader Kevin Rudd’s credibility is being backed by senior Liberal strategists”. A six-week campaign is apparently favoured, which would mean November 17 if it was called this weekend – which, Ferguson tells us, is what Labor “privately believes” will happen. The Prime Minister will say no more than that it will be “held some day between now and early December”.

• Crikey yesterday reported a rumour that Bowman MP Andrew Laming, who was recently cleared by the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions over the “printgate” affair, might yet be bumped aside by the Liberals before the election. It was said that his replacement would be Peter Dowling, a Redland Shire councillor.

• The following sentence unaccountably interrupts a piece on political blogging by good egg Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail: “Forget the hype, it is not going to be called for at least 12 days, probably 17”.

• This might not sound too promising, but SportingBet has produced a remarkably attractive and comprehensive election form guide covering all marginal seats.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

183 comments on “Phoney war dispatches: business as usual edition”

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  3. Andrews makes me feel both nauseous and nauseated – nausified too.

    I don’t think such abuse is necessary in political discourse. I think it is sufficient to quote from The Office, and simply call Andrews a ‘Fisher-Price man’.
    Incidentally, what seat does Andrews hold?

  9. Actually, am concerned . Must have the date. Planning the menu. How to decide. What will the weather be? What to wear? Invites are issued. Liberal mates have declined to attend.

  11. Adam 54. Was definitely SMH but tuned in too late to know what poll was being talked of. Kevin Rudd preferred etc. Can’t imagine it was an already known poll. Hope not to mislead, here.

  12. Adam, is there proof that those with beards actually poll worse? If so, maybe I should go speak to Dr Ken Harvey here in Kooyong and get him to remove his beard.

  16. [White beards on men over 60 are apparently OK.]

    In that case a Mr S Claus who lives in the North Pole would be a good vote winner then. 🙂

  17. Maybe this, Adam. Annabel Crabb SMH ‘Duck into Kingdom of Kevin’

    ..’In this spirit, the national firm of political lobbyists Parker & Partners yesterday issued what amounts to a Go Bag for business, in case of a Rudd government. “Polls don’t lie”, writes its managing director, Andrew Parker, in his introduction to Lobbying Kevin07?, which was mailed to 1000 skittish chief executives and posted on the firm’s website. It’s all an attempt to school the corporate world in the ways of Kevinism’.

  18. You mean like Mike Kelly? People know that military types tend to grow moustaches so that probably doesn’t count. I don’t think Australians mind moustaches much. The problem with beards at this precise historical juncture is not that they are associated with hippies and radicals as that article suggests, but that they are associated with Muslims and therefore with terrorists.

  22. Crikey Whitey,

    The Poll mentioned in “What the papers say” is for the seat of North Sydney. Sounds like it was commissioned by SMH.
    It should ruffle Joe Hockey a bit more!

    SMH stories mentioned in “What the papers say” usually don’t appear on their website until about 3am – sometimes later.

  23. ShowsOn: The way climate change skeptics try to justify their position is to look at local changes and say it’s just like 10, 20 or 50 years ago, or say ‘oh it’s summer but freezing outside, so much for global warming’. I would like someone to ask Howard if the melting of Artic ice is just a perodic change or something more.

  24. [ShowsOn: The way climate change skeptics try to justify their position is to look at local changes and say it’s just like 10, 20 or 50 years ago, or say ‘oh it’s summer but freezing outside, so much for global warming’. ]

    Oh exactly. Like Andrew Bolt making fun of people standing in the rain at climate change rallys, as if a single day of rain, at a single location, says anything about long term average temperatures.

  26. Thanks, Barry 72. Had looked at ABC, thanks for tip. Saves me attempting to ring Tony D in desperation, posing as someone responding to his issue of the day!

  28. [http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/voters-take-stick-to-hockey/2007/10/03/1191091193411.html]

    Only 400 voters, so does that make it a 5% margin of error (1/ sqrt 400)?

    But still that is just a huge swing. Surely that means he is getting some personally backlash against WorkChoices. The Liberals would’ve been hoping that they didn’t need to worry about North Sydney!

    In other news, the back bench seems to be at war with Costello over tax offsets for child care expenses:
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22528216-601,00.html

    This would fit with the Antony Green idea that the government is suffering a severe case of indecision, in the face of constant terrible polls.

  29. 47
    Adam Says:
    October 4th, 2007 at 12:17 am
    No, no, blindoptimist, Kevin Andrews is nauseous, and you are nauseated by him.
    ……
    thanks adam. perhaps he should be renamed Mr Nausea Andrews, Minister for the Grotesque and Shameful.

  31. Speaking of election cliches that jar the sensibilities, it must soon be time for a political “journalist” to demonstrate his/her ignorance and pomposity by using the word “caravanserai”, in the completely wrong context.

  33. Andrews seems to have a talent for political ineptitude. For a government trying to hold several seats with large Asian communities, such as Moreton and Bennelong, the introduction of this citizenship test just before an election is political poison, even if it does win back some redneck votes in other places. Making it harder for Chinese grannies to become citizens, when the real objective is to keep out M*sl*ms, is very bad politics. They would more honest just to ban M*sl*m migration outright.

  34. Very sceptical about the North Sydney poll 1) Its leaked party polling. 2) If liberal polling was showing they could lose it, or ALP polling was really showing it was winnable, it would be reflected in the level of political activity in the seat.
    Mike Bailey is completely invisible around here. Havent heard a word from him or Labor. The only political material doing the rounds is Hockey’s regular electorate newsletter. Beyond that, nothing.

  35. [Speaking of election cliches that jar the sensibilities, it must soon be time for a political “journalist” to demonstrate his/her ignorance and pomposity by using the word “caravanserai”, in the completely wrong context.]

    Caravanserai is a great Santana album!

    http://wc06.allmusic.com/cg/amg.dll?p=amg&sql=10:jxfyxqu5ldse

    [Andrews seems to have a talent for political ineptitude.]

    Even The Oz editors got stuck into him:
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22526972-16382,00.html

    [They would more honest just to ban M*sl*m migration outright.]

    That may be the next step in the wedge. Personally I think doing that would basically be reintroducing the White Australia Policy Lite.

  36. [Mike Bailey is completely invisible around here. Havent heard a word from him or Labor.]

    I agree James, and that’s what makes those numbers even more amazing. Nothing would give me more satisfaction than walking to the polling booth in a month or so and getting out the pencil to mark a big ‘1’ for Mr Bailey, and then see Avuncular Joe go down! Still just a dream I think… this area is very Liberal.

  40. 83
    Adam Says:
    October 4th, 2007 at 1:30 am
    Andrews seems to have a talent for political ineptitude.
    ….
    He has spent a lot of his career being the sidekick to the big guy. He does have that look about him…like he’d polish your shoes every day if only you’d let him….I think he’s there because he can give expression to Howard’s darker self….a surrogate..

  41. 89
    Adam Says:
    October 4th, 2007 at 1:52 am
    Oh dear, more work for moi. I’ve just added all the bloody Socialist Alliance candidates.
    ….
    You are a political omnivore, Adam. Eat up and enjoy….

  46. 21
    Michael Proud Says: “I’m a party boy, with a bad habit, bad habit”.

    When is ACN out? I thought it would be out by now.

    You aren’t the only one Michael . I am leaving tomorrow on holidays until mid month and I spent 30 mintues last night sketching out the ABC radio frequencies of every major city along our path. Save the odd newspaper, I will probably get no news at all. Thank god for ABC radio 😉 Will have to catch up on polls when we get back 🙁

  47. Hello …………… “IF the Liberals lose the election and John Howard marches into history, the party that he has helped shape for more than four decades will face huge challenges. Ironically, one of them will be to stop the Liberals becoming more conservative. With the party out of office everywhere and searching for direction, the risk will be that zealots turn it into a narrow group that appeals only to a minority ……….. The problem is that zealotry does not fit well with the pragmatism required to win elections. People are entitled to their views on matters such as abortion and same-sex marriages but they are divisive issues, which is why conservatives like Howard avoid them. An obsession with them at the expense of the vast range of issues that a party must address if it wants to appeal to the mass of voters is a recipe for permanent Opposition.”

    Article is one of The Australian opinion pieces this morning by Mike Steketee. http://tinyurl.com/36x7b6

  48. the risk will be that zealots turn it into a narrow group that appeals only to a minority

    Um…I think that piece of advice has come about 3 years too late, and you could mount a fairly strong argument for the rot having set in about 11 yers ago.

  49. [ the Liberals becoming more conservative ]

    If they become more conservative they are finished. Small l Liberals will stay away. The main problem for them is the religious conservatives who refuse to budge on dogma because they’re on a crusade to save the world and with God on your side who needs a majority of the electorate to vote for you.

  50. I still fail to see what a long election campaign will actually do for the Liberal Party. We’ve been in a campaign virtually all year. Those who haven’t made up their minds now I suspect will make up their minds in the last week of the campaign, or on their way to the booth. Why an extra week or 2 for the campaign will make a signficant impact I don’t know.

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