• Today’s Hobart Mercury reports on a poll of the northern Tasmanian seats of Bass and Braddon, conducted by Melbourne company MarketMetrics on behalf of the Wilderness Society. From a sample of 492, it is said to show Labor on 61 per cent of the vote across the two seats, although it is not clear if this is primary or two-party preferred. In Bass, 27 per cent of respondents said they will be more likely to vote Liberal if Malcolm Turnbull rejects the Tamar Valley pulp mill proposal, while only 6 per cent said they will be more likely to do so if he approves it.
• Labor has been very slightly embarrassed by the emergence of a university newspaper article by Dominic Rose, its play-dead 20-year-old candidate for Wilson Tuckey’s seat of O’Connor. Writing earlier this year in the student organ of the most august University of Western Australia, Rose expressed concern that Kevin Rudd came over as a “filthy Liberal” who seemed insufficiently enthusiastic about “killing capitalist pig dogs and establishing a dictatorship of the proletariat”. The comments seem to have been made in a spirit of undergraduate humour, and the kid proved quite adept at batting off deliveries from press gallery hard-nose Samantha Maiden of The Australian.
• The Financial Review’s Rear Window column notes that retiring MPs’ parliamentary offices are being stripped by renovators, “which should be a firm indicator that no more sitting weeks are contemplated”. In the Poll Bludger’s experience, it doesn’t usually pay to read too much into this kind of thing. The report further notes: “The smart money yesterday was still on the Prime Minister calling the election on or before October 13 – just as NSW school holidays end – for an election on either November 10 or 17, through the bookies still favour November 24. If Howard were to leave it until October 14, he would have to answer to taxpayers, with pollies incurring expenses for an unnecessary flight to Canberra for a non-existent sitting week”.
• John Ferguson of the Herald Sun brings us the unsurprising news that “a marathon election campaign aimed at destroying Labor leader Kevin Rudd’s credibility is being backed by senior Liberal strategists”. A six-week campaign is apparently favoured, which would mean November 17 if it was called this weekend – which, Ferguson tells us, is what Labor “privately believes” will happen. The Prime Minister will say no more than that it will be “held some day between now and early December”.
• Crikey yesterday reported a rumour that Bowman MP Andrew Laming, who was recently cleared by the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions over the “printgate” affair, might yet be bumped aside by the Liberals before the election. It was said that his replacement would be Peter Dowling, a Redland Shire councillor.
• The following sentence unaccountably interrupts a piece on political blogging by good egg Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail: “Forget the hype, it is not going to be called for at least 12 days, probably 17”.
• This might not sound too promising, but SportingBet has produced a remarkably attractive and comprehensive election form guide covering all marginal seats.
[ being backed by senior Liberal strategists†]
These senior Liberal strategists haven’t got anything right so far so I don’t know how much good their advise is going to do from here on. I’m still waiting for the backlash against Rudd due to Stripergate. And how about that budget bounce? How’s that doing?
And who is playing hubris?
Does anyone have any views on Robertson and Belinda Neal-Della-Bosca’s chances?
Surely she is in the David Bradbury category is she loses yet again?
William, do you have a URL for this article? Thanks 🙂
Sorry Julie, AFR content is subscriber only. I got it out of the dead tree edition.
Ok :(:( … not much that you can do then. Isn’t that just the way that the juicy stories don’t have more information behind them that we can get at?
[These senior Liberal strategists haven’t got anything right so far so I don’t know how much good their advise is going to do from here on]
Precisely. Saying that Rudd will be worn down by a long campaign is based on Liberal hope rather than anything based in fact. I suppose when you’ve been behind by nearly 10 points in every poll for the last 9 months you have to try and conjure up something…
You haven’t missed too much on this occasion Julie. The full item reads as follows
[ And who is playing hubris? ]
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. If I had a dollar for every time someone on this blog accuses someone of “hubris”, I’d have enough money to fund the election campaign. Can we have some new words and new insults please.
lets try “nemesis”, famed in iolden days as an effective hubrisicide
paul k. let`s get back to 70`s playground speak. `Youse are up yaselves`. Goulburn speak for a form of hubris…
Glen, these little…things are addictive…
hubris, rogue, apparatchik – wankerisms the lot of them
i don’t know what date the election will be on but i remain convinced that it will be called before Oct 9 (which means by this monday).
Howard, the little bigshot, will not look to be scared by going past that full term date, even though he knows he is fish n chip wrapper.
#12 misused wankerisms most of the time as well.
My little spreadsheet based on the newspoll data has Bass and Braddon sitting on 59% using the national swing as there was no state swing available. If it really is 61 then Tasi is swinging harder, but not as hard as Victoria.
My money is on Turnbull rejecting the pulp mill as it will throw the cat amongst the pigeons. At this point they have to do something if they are going to save themselves.
For nine months I’ve avoided saying that the ALP will win (though six months ago I said on another blog that I thought they would win). I now put the ALP’s chances of winning at aroung 90%. I think this will be the first election in living memory in which traditionally defined swinging voters (ie no major leanings, little interest in politics, not riled by a particular issue) will not play a major role. Sufficient numbers of specific groups (doctors wives, renters, no children couples, etc) have been sufficiently pissed off that swinging voters will only become relevant of ALL of them vote coalition, which is unlikely.
So, to let a bit of hubris in, I’ll indulge in a little historical analysis of the Howard years.
In the immediate future, JWH will be regarded as the leader who didn’t know when to quit, and who let the hubris of winning a Senate majority get to his head. The Coalition, devastated by defeat, will nevertheless honour his leadership, though Workchoices will immediately be disowned.
Four years from now, in the wake of bitter infighting between the religious right and more mainstream parts of the Libs wrecking any election comeback, JWH’s lax party management becomes roundly criticised. A failure to invest in skills results in higher inflation and interest rates. The Nats are reduced to a rump and question the coalition.
Seven years from now, following another election defeat, the Libs start to acknowledge that the JWH’s fiefdom and divide-and-rule approach to governance really did not go down well with the electorate. The Nats have left the coalition.
Ten years from now, JWH’s climate change skepticism is identified as a key reason why Australia faces a bigger challenge and costs in meeting new carbon reduction targets. Lost opportunities to invest in exports and emerging industries are identified as having dragged Australia back in the pack of nations.
Fifteen years from now, the rampant spending on middle class welfare causes conflict as the government of the day (whomever it is) has to start substantially winding back the largesse.
In twenty years, the JWH years will largely be regarded as, like the Frazer years, a largely lost opportunity to advance the nation. Unlike the Frazer years, JWH will be commonly criticised for increasing taxation to fund reelection prospects rather than national priorities, abusing government processes and priviledges, and generally being an ass.
It would be a kindness of he chocked on his weetbix the day after the election.
Would Howard allow it?
He has been strong in his support of the mill,especially his mantra of jobs and the economy.
The pressure is Getting to the Government, the more the denigrade the opposition, the more the public want to vote for the opposition, but they still dont get it, Kevin Rudds strategy is brilliant, while they are targeting him he is giving people a vision for the future, whilst the government is not giving the public any vision for the future.
Now it is to late as Kevin Rudd has been outlining his vision for 10 months and it has been cemented , So what do the Liberals do plan another attack on Rudd during the election campaing, even if they woke up and realised that people are looking to the future its to late it wont be credible.
One of the mistakes Paul Keating made when he lost to John Howard was to denigrade John Howard and the opposition, the public doesnt like it, as it shows arrogance, so they vote for the other guy.
The Dominic Rose piece was hilarious. Certainly nothing he said in irony was any worse than anything the moronic Tuckey has ever said for real. He had no trouble at all with Maiden.
“My opponent, Mr (Wilson) Tuckey isn’t a fan of Mr Howard either, so I suppose we’ve got something in common.”
I don’t see anything for Labor to be even mildly embarrassed about.
The article is Gold. I might have to send him a herogram.
Worst of Perth – I just got to your blog – I am misty eyed – I used to live in Dianella and there are so many monstrosities you have pointed out. 3000kms away and i miss the emptiness and the cocos palms.
Why do I feel nervous now about the election. I am always waiting for the polls to correct themselves. I remember before the 1996 election and the start of the interregnum, that I couldn’t believe the polls and that the extent of what was to come was to come.
I need another poll to calm me down with a good 2PP. I am getting like Annabel Dickson on Summer Heights High but with polls and not drugs.
“I’m a party boy, with a bad habit, bad habit”.
When is ACN out? I thought it would be out by now.
Like Michael Proud at 21 I keep waiting for the polls to change. But the Sydney Uni research that has upset Hockey et al so much has calmed me down. Now I understand the polls. Lots of people are deeply offended by Workchoices. For each person who has lost wages there are perhaps 10? 20? people who are angry. Then there is the spin off for ‘good’ employers. Down the road someone has cut wages. The only way to stay competitive is to cut wages too. Bothe employer and employee are diminished. And then there is less spending money around.
It was odd that Howard basically publicly supported the pulp mill whilst Turnbull was deciding what to do with the hot potato [and Howard’s mate putting the heat on]. Do they communicate with each other? Turnbull is conscious of his own seat but Howard seems to want to give Gunns what they want [especially if an election loss is in the wind].
I wonder at what pressures there are behind the scenes between the two.
Hey Michael #20. I think Worst of Perth is going to be big. Unfortunately I am not able to include Wilson Tuckey unless I expand to worst of the mid-west.
Will the announcement, when it comes, be a “team” effort with John and Peter sharing the stage? The answer to that could give some indication to the current state of internal polling.
WOW a representative from the Agrarian Socialist Union, AKA the NSW Farmers Federation just did an interesting job of explaining how market forces require government hand outs on Lateline.
I’m sure Glen will be ready to condem the blatant socialism from this union any minute now.
i had a look at the sportingbet link – interesting, but the troubling thing is the new money has been mostly backing the govt. i wonder if a similar trend has been noted at the other bookies.
One of the Libs main problems is credibility. They’re such bullshit artists no one buys much they have to say.
Look at last two days: Valerie Pearson from the ABS yesterday destroys Hockey’s ludicrous claims about AWAs and high pay.
Today, Vic Chief of Police Christine Pearson rubbishes Andrews’ nonsense about Sudanese, and I quote: “There’s an under-representation of the Sudanese in crime stats, compared to all other more common cultures within Australia,”
They’re just a pack of chronic liars.
One of the Libs main problems is credibility. They’re such bullsh*t artists no one buys much they have to say.
Look at last two days: Valerie Pearson from the ABS yesterday destroys Hockey’s ludicrous claims about AWAs and high pay.
Today, Vic Chief of Police Christine Pearson rubbishes Andrews’ nonsense about Sudanese, and I quote: “There’s an under-representation of the Sudanese in crime stats, compared to all other more common cultures within Australia,â€
They’re just a pack of chronic liars.
The first seat profile I looked at on Sportingbet was Wentworth, and it contained a really embarrassing error about the 2004 swing’s size.
[Today, Vic Chief of Police Christine Pearson rubbishes Andrews’ nonsense about Sudanese, and I quote: “There’s an under-representation of the Sudanese in crime stats, compared to all other more common cultures within Australia,â€]
Don’t you mean Christine NIXON ??? 🙂
But you’re right about the Govt being Bullartistes.
there must be an acnielson poll out soon – tomorrow? friday?
[Today, Vic Chief of Police Christine Pearson rubbishes Andrews’ nonsense about Sudanese, ]
Why can’t we just be a mature country and accept refugees based on NEED. We accept the most needy first, and the somewhat less needy second etc.
Why on earth do we run quotas that we will take a certain amount of Africans, a certain amount of people from the Middle-East, then Asians etc?
Surely we have grown up past that kind of differentiating.
Ive got a grainy video suggesting her name is Pearson, Frank.
[there must be an acnielson poll out soon – tomorrow? friday?]
Next Monday. There is a Morgan this Friday.
ACNielson poll I expect will be Monday. Morgan on Friday.
It’s Christine Nixon.
More ALP polling out thursday.
Hockey vs ex ABC dude
ALP 53
LP 47
“Christine Pearson” is of course the drag name of a well known amateur psephologist and pundit in the Morgoth press. She has a whole float to herself in the Mardi Gras parade.
Its a navy video. Are you calling the navy liars? 😉
Afraid so if they’re calling her Christine Pearson.
ph – very interesting.
Re: odd comments from 8 to 15 or so…
Yes, yes! I’m all for introducing – or reintroducing some wankerisms… my vote is for ‘tyro’ – it’s been awhile since it’s been over used and given how many new Labor members will shortly be enjoying the good life – it’ll even have relevance!
[More ALP polling out thursday.
Hockey vs ex ABC dude
ALP 53
LP 47]
I think these leaked polls by the ALP are trying to get the Liberals to devote more cash to their blue ribbon seats.
My guess is Hockey is suffering some blowback caused by being the face of WorkChoicesTM.
Kevin Andrews makes me nauseous.
whoops, a bit of an own goal for Brough, which illustrates that most of the offenders of these types of offences are by persons known to the offender, and that scrfapping the permit system is rather useless.
[THE Federal Government gave money to an indigenous police liaison officer for a program he set up to help wayward youths, only to learn that the man has been charged as a pedophile.
In an emotional speech at Melbourne University this week, Indigenous Affairs Minister Mal Brough admitted that he had put great faith in the man.
“He and his … wife were doing good things. They asked for money from me to assist them to take young boys out of the community who had been truant or had … brushes to the law to take them back on to the homelands to teach them cultural ways. We provided that money to him.”
The liaison officer, one of 15 men and five juveniles in the West Australian community of Kalumburu who have been charged with child sex offences, had “been procuring children as young as five and six”, Mr Brough said.]
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/money-went-to-pedophile-brough-admits/2007/10/03/1191091193891.html
No, no, blindoptimist, Kevin Andrews is nauseous, and you are nauseated by him.
[In an emotional speech at Melbourne University this week, Indigenous Affairs Minister Mal Brough admitted that he had put great faith in the man.
“He and his … wife were doing good things. They asked for money from me to assist them to take young boys out of the community who had been truant or had … brushes to the law to take them back on to the homelands to teach them cultural ways. We provided that money to him.â€]
Does this mean that if any offences occured on the trips funded by the Commonwealth, would this make Brough and ultimately the Federeal Govt Accessories to a crime ?
Caught tail end of ‘what the papers say’, Tony Delroy, SA Radio 891. Sounds like SMH is reporting on yet another drastic poll for Labor.
Oh ye of little faith. All those needing another poll fix to calm your nerves should simply ask yourselves what the liberals can possibly do during the campaign that they haven’t tried already.
As for the bookies, my advice is pray for Labor to go out to $1.50 again and then put your house on it. Easiest money you will ever earn in your life.