The Australian today brings us a second round of figures from the weekend Newspoll survey. It shows that in spite of everything, the Prime Minister is rated the leader “more capable of handling Australia’s economy” by 48 per cent to Kevin Rudd’s 33 per cent, while Peter Costello leads Wayne Swan as “most capable of managing Australia’s economy as federal treasurer” by 53 per cent to 21 per cent. The Prime Minister is also rated the leader “most capable of keeping interest rates lower”, although his lead over Rudd has narrowed since last month.
Glen,
I am not bagging the Australian “just because it scrutinises the Opposition…,” I’m bagging The Australian because it does a disservice to our democracy. I don’t want to be rude, Glen, but I don’t rate you as an intellect worth taking seriously on most matters, least of all on matters relating to the media. I think you should stick to clever takes on Labor leaders’ names like Dudd and Dillard.
I will only say this once as it is boring and counterproductive to dwell on remarks that reflect such a simplistic view of the world, but just so Glen has an opportunity to understand, here’s my point:
the argument of “if you don’t like it, don’t read it” totally misses the importance of holding our media to a standard that provides for a clear and fair dissemination of information, crucial to democratic decision making in our society. The same argument is put up in the U.S by defender of Rupert Murdoch’s Fox News Chanel (FNC). Of course, to ignore FNC would be to tacitly condone the clear bias that the network pushes in it’s supposedly “fair & balanced” newscasts. There are countless examples of FNC trying to unfairly influence the outcome of elections in the United States by smearing candidates, distorting facts, omitting relevant facts in stories, ignoring obviously relevant stories, engaging in rank hypocrisy or running P.R for conservative candidates. I’d highly recommend Robert Greenwald’s documentary “Outfoxed” to anyone who has an interest in exploring this a little more.
I could go on and on about this, but i suspect there is little point. Suffice it to say that Glen’s suggestion of “if you don’t like it read something else” is a little bit like saying, if you don’t like the political landscape, don’t pay attention to politics. That may work for people who place little value on a functioning democracy or take things for granted to the extent that they are consumed by indifference, but not me, Glen. I was raised to believe that democracy is something to be defended against all enemies, internal and external and that in order to achieve that, one must be eternally vigilant.
So – the polling figures indicate that the voters think Costello would be a better treasurer than Swan. BFD. Considering Costello has been been doing the job for over 11 years, supported by the whole Treasury department, he would be expected to be regarded as more capable than a bloke who is waiting to take over the job.
“I was raised to believe that democracy is something to be defended against all enemies, internal and external and that in order to achieve that, one must be eternally vigilant.” Optimist
I’m glad you agree that we cannot entrust our 1 trillion dollar economy to the woeful abilities of Wayne Swan! I am defending our country and remaining eternally vigilant to the consequences of letting Rooster Swan become the Treasurer surely the ALP could put a more competent person in the job?
Oh and your petty attacks on my intellect hmmm well its interesting that you equate anybody with differing political views to yourself as being stupid. I dont buy that argument im afraid!
Iran – it would be complete lunacy for the US to attack Iran. No votes in it here as the voters are sick of the Iraq thing. Iran would close the Persian Gulf, so no oil being exported from any middle east supplier. Petrol here would be $3.00 a litre minimum. No votes for Howard in that.
Wow, Wayne Swan must be pretty clever if he can read his advisor’s lips when they are standing behind him…
Glen – how do you know Swan would be a ‘woeful’ treasurer? Costello was a suburban lawyer in 1996 with little knowledge of economic matters.
I don’t know when was the last time you read the SMH. I will assume because I know you live in Melbourne Ports electorate that if you’ve read it at all, it hasn’t been much and probably online. The SMH has been taking too much out of the Daily Telegraph’s playbook. It isn’t even in the same category as the Age any more (Alan Ramsey excepted), it is more like the DT without the tabloid gossip stories. You have, however, correctly flagged The Age ;-D
Glen,
it is most telling that you choose to equate our democracy with our economy (by your logic, they appear interchangeable). That points to the reason why i don’t rate you as intellect worth taking seriously. The attempt to shift the focus to Wayne Swan and Australia’s one trillion dollar economy is reminiscent of the way that the Murdoch media outlets function in attempting reframe issues that don’t paint their political allies in a positive light. The last, best hope of this clearly struggling Government is to focus on its “economic credentials” and to run a scare campaign against the Labor front bench. True to form, Glen has again run this line, parroting the Government reflecting a mindset of confused petulance.
Glen, if you don’t like Wayne Swan, you should stop reading about him.
Given I have absolutely no imagination… I’m going to post what I posted yesterday about five minutes before the other thread got shut down. This is the second time this has happened to me… maybe i should think of going to bed before 2am…
***
Generally I take little notice of Newspoll’s little ’side polls’ (ie the one they released today) but this one interested me. It’s no surprise Costello is flogging Swan in preferred treasurer, but this stat:
But on the back of five interest rates rises in a row, Labor is narrowing the gap on who would be the best manager of interest rates.
Mr Howard was nominated by 36 percent of voters (up two points from August), compared to 31 percent for Mr Rudd (up four points).
Obviously I haven’t being paying attention here, but I would have thought given the scare campaigns and negativity in the media, Rudd would have been miles in front on this one (or at least ‘in front’.) I wonder if the stories that the ‘libs will be punished for interest rate rises’ actually hold much sway after all.
Makes you wonder what would happen if the economy suddenly becomes the issue of the campaign.
Thanks, mikem, for correcting me. I was basing that statement on information I read from another blog, not this one.
I was at a wedding earlier in the year sitting with one of treasury’s economist who has frequent meetings with costello and said that he did not have a clue about the economy or economics. He is the king of lip sync, and little if none actually comes from him.
This person had a phd in economics, and was very credible. Need I say more!
Stick that in your pipe Glen
Bryce #23… the reasons weren’t given on Insiders, but as this government has a record of pushing the envelope, and considering “caretaker mode†is merely a convention, who is to stop them from running the info ads right through the campaign (without consultation with Labor)?
Howard has got history of ignoring or getting around the “Caretaker Convention” as this example shows.
{The Howard Government has gotten into hot water before over the timing of these ads. The $6.1million campaign was first launched while the Government was in caretaker mode before the 2004 federal election. Mark Latham’s opposition cried foul over the ads being run during the election campaign, arguing that they were designed to scare people into voting for the Howard Government rather than provide information to the public.
As a result, the ads were tagged as “Authorised by the Australian Federal Police” in an attempt to distinguish them from the Liberal Party’s election campaign advertising.
The ads appeared again in July, 2005, after bombings on the London Underground. The renewed campaign ran over two weeks and was reported to have cost a further $2.2 million. This time, with no election looming, the ads were “Authorised by the Australian Government”, a clear message that it was the incumbents who were responsible for the nation’s security.}
http://canberra.yourguide.com.au/detail.asp?class=your%20say&subclass=general&story_id=585571&category=Opinion
Shouldn’t this poll be Wayne Swan Vs Tony Abbott as treasurer??
Or Wayne Swan Vs Alexander Downer as treasurer??
Or Wayne Swan Vs John Howard(22% John) as treasurer??
Glen, a well argued case based on fact could win me over re Swan. Just present it. Now, when was Swan last Treasurer and when did he do such a bad job?
I’m amazed Swan even managed to get 21%. Shadow Treasurers usually have zero name recognition and Costello would have oodles of it having been around so long and as the annointed one for the PM’s job should they win.
In any case, elections aren’t won by Treasurers, they are won by leaders, policies and scare campaigns.
Optimist@50
You won the argument. At least by virtue of the fact that you’ve discovered punctuation, but also because you HAVE an argument.
That said, I will keep reading the Oz because I want to see how far down the rabbit hole Dennis (and Milne) will go.
Swan has never been Treasurer i might correct you Gary but he will be if Labor wins that is until Gillard wants the job…i find it amusing that you all seem to think Wayne Swan will do a bang up job on the economy if Labor wins that kind of ignorance can and will prove costly in the ‘hip pocket’ if anything Swan will be the target of Coalition advertising in the election…Rudd’s best decision was to confirm Swan as Treasurer if Labor wins lol another own goal people may not like Costello but they know he can do the job people dont like Swan and know he cant do the job…you are flogging a dead horse if you think people will take Labor seriously on the economy with Swan as shadow treasurer.
Abbott’s hospital plan sounds like the first step to privatisation to me. Why wouldn’t they? They have privatised everything else. Privatisation would be a powerful weapon to scare the populace.
Glen
I think you should address what Gary Bruce said @ 62.
Why is Swan bad? What exactly does he have planned that worries you? What would he do poorly that Costello has done well?
Here Glen, have some of mine:
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
John Witheld
made me spill me coffee ya bastard
post of the year 🙂
#58 Max, thanks for reposting the comment from the previous thread. Frankly, it is the most incisive comment thus far on the thread.
#55 Costello was never a ‘suburban lawyer’.
Abbott’s Hospital Plan is just a broader rehash of what the QLD Borbage National Party Government brought in.
It was an abject failure and just a return to the system under the Bjelke Petersen regime which was a system of Boards run by National Party lackeys on the gravy train but still had to have oversight by a centralised Health Bureaucracy in Brisbane.
Back to the future anyone. This mob are in a “Policy Vacuum”.
This apparent scare campaign about Gillard potentially becoming treasurer is ludicrous. Folks, Gillard is more popular than Costello. She’s certainly more popular than Swan. The public couldn’t give a rats about her political faction. Moreover, it’s a non-starter to begin with – Swan has a background in economic policy (and has published some very interesting material on it), whereas Gillard was a top industrial relations lawyer before entering politics. Why on earth would they shift them from their current positions?
I’m waiting for TheOz’s inevitable shift to tabloid form to match its journalism. Perhaps in the process, it might lose a few of the columnists (left & right) who said all they ever had to say decades ago.
Not that I think “economic management” is THE poll issue, or even one the major ones. Those are WorkChoices and Climate Change, with Taxpayer-funded ads catching up, and “sleeper issues” like Quarantine failures (eg fire ants, Citrus canker, equine influenza), recycled “promises” that are recycled because Howard has no intention of keeping them. Indeed, Howard’s allergy to spending on major national infrastructure – one of the things voters EXPECT the feds to do – is turning into “Mutter-power”.
In addition, TheOz’s target demographic ought to know that external pressures like commodity booms & busts, USA debt (macro & micro), the impact of BIG growing economies like China and India have far more influence on our economy, as long as the government keeps the fiscal lid on things – and the last Fed Gov that didn’t, in a peculiarly Australian crises (commodity market bust, drought) and landed in a fiscal mess not paralleled in USA / UK / NW Europe was the last Frazer Gov, when Guess Who was treasurer!
Given TheOz’s Internet-savvy, statistics-savvy, On-line media-addicted demographic, it’s blatantly “right of Ghengis” stance is, I feel, now a plus for Rudd. This occurred in USA-06 mid-term elections, when Rupert’s strident ultra-negative, ultra-right, pro-republican TV and press stances became a significant plus for Democrats – which most Oz readers would know!
{#55 Costello was never a ’suburban lawyer’.}
Except for $ Sweets.
Why is Swan bad? What exactly does he have planned that worries you? What would he do poorly that Costello has done well?
Oh Swan is bad because he ha NO plans for the future and has NO economic policy hows that for starters…for someone who voted against balancing the budget and who voted against the GST and other economic reforms augers badly for this ignoramus.
Wow you left winger sure do know how to debate bringing petty childish things like spelling and punctuation wow you clearly win debates doing this don’t you!
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There that should suffice to make up for my lack of (,) in my last post!
Glen – who do you think Labor *should* have as Treasurer if not Swan, and why? How do you or anyone else know that he can’t do the job?
In answering, try and avoid arguments based on “experience”, because that one always leads to the conclusion that we should never change government.
How funny is Scotty and his ozpolitics link??
Dunkley and Casey are likely to be picked up by the ALP?? HAHA!!
Dawson to go in QLD?
Warringah is a LIKELY retain?? HA!
As for WA, Cowan and Swan are on the radar for Lib gains-they’re the only two seats that might go Liberal.
BTW, Greenway is on 11%-you’re guaranteeing that Greenway will swing 12% to the ALP? As per ‘The Castle’
Tell him he’s dreamin’!
Given that “neither” got 6% of the vote, doesn’t this mean that, if the Coalition wins then when Costello takes over in this term then HIS treasurer (whoever that may be) is getting thrashed by Swan?
Heading could read “Swan smashes Liberal candidate for treasurer!”
You need to put them in between the words.
Spelling and punctuation – as opposed to a stream of consciousness – can actually win the odd argument. Try it.
Glen, I agree with what Econocrat said in 77.
If, as appears most likely, Labor takes over Government after the election, which front benchers are appointed to which positions should be a matter of interest to you.
I for one, would be very interested in your take on the structure of the front bench, rather than what you think as recommended by our friends at the Australian.
The GG is reaching down really deep to find something to use as a lifeline for Howard. This isn’t journalism. And how does Shanahan find the time to research and write so many lead articles? Obviously he doesn’t read them back to check for inconcsistencies.
Re Max
I’ve been arguing for some times that interest rates are not such a great issue for the ALP much to the dissaproval of people on this blog. I just don’t think anyone believes the interest rates rises we’ve had would not have occurred under a Labor Government.
This makes me shake my head with disbelief every time someone talks about the number of high mortgage houses there are in an electorate as evidence that it’s bound to swing towards Labor or mentions that people are ‘bound to be angry’. It’s just a nonsense to me.
I also think conservative bloggers place far too much relevance on the economy to voting intentions of the mass public. You just need to look at the leaked Crosby/Textor polling to see that the economy is essentially a non-issue amongst voters.
For Labor to try and wage a war on the Coalition on economic grounds would be crazy. They’d be better off just not talking about it and hitting the Coalition where they are really hurting.
For mine Tanner would be better at Treasurer, but then again Finance is almost as important (but gets nowhere near the same recognition), so it’s not a huge deal for me.
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
Am I in the bad books for taking offence to Julie’s comments last night.
I dealt with that by e-mail. By the way Julie, I sent another e-mail to your inbox.
CTEP, the recent rising interest rates don’t neccessarily tip the economic argument in Labor’s favour, but what they are doing is nullifying the government’s economic credentials. Without them, the government has very little left as positives, as shown by the polls.
If you are attempting to debate, it is important to make sense. Facts and sound reasoning are also highly desirable.
{Lecturer in media and communications at the University of Melbourne Sally Young has described Government advertising as “one of the greatest perks of incumbency”.
In modern politics, mass media advertising is considered a crucial factor in deciding election results particularly by the parties themselves. The financial and bureaucratic resources of government puts the incumbent at a distinct advantage.}
http://canberra.yourguide.com.au/detail.asp?class=your%20say&subclass=general&story_id=585571&category=Opinion
If something like this can be a major determining factor in an election campaign and influence which side gets into power for the next 3 years, then why can’t the Australian have questions on issues like this included in their Newspoll and determine just what the public really think and whether they are influenced by them or not.
As far as the economy is concerned Labor can simply run with the campaign that Howard and Costello have wasted our prosperity [not spending on infrastructure, hospitals etc] and use the opinion of economists thus;
“ANZ Bank chief economist Saul Eslake says the Federal Government should have made better use of the revenue it has made from Australia’s resources boom.
Mr Eslake has addressed the Australian British Chamber of Commerce and told the gathering the Government has spent or given away almost every single dollar associated with the windfall gains.
He says it has put upward pressure on interest rates and the money should have been used to address some of the national issues.”
http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/26/2044302.htm?section=australia
Managing the economy in Australia has mostly been a cakewalk for the Howard/Costello ‘team’. The Asian crisis in 1997 was no real threat to Oz. Since 2003, the money has been rolling in from the resources boom and blind freddie could have managed it well. We now have a 17 billion surplus. Let’s face the facts – the bureaucrats in Treasury manage the numbers for the Treasurer. The Treasurer’s main job is to say ‘No’ to ministers as they come up with silly ideas to waste our money. Swan or Tanner, supported by the army of well qualified Treasury bureaucrats, would do as good a job as Costello.
On a different matter-a 2nd cabinet member (Costello) has come out and slammed the new study into workchoices. So anything even partly Union funded -bad but Employer funded-good. Ouch -the truth really does hurt.
Glen, I was well aware Swan has not been a treasurer and thankyou for making my point. So how do you know he will make a bad treasurer? So far you have failed to answer this to my satisfaction. No proof, none at all, just a gut dislike on your part. Not good enough.
Anyone notice that The Australian has almost no coverage to the release of the “Australia at Work” report? I’m puzzled as to whether The Oz thinks the study isn’t newsworthy or simply wants to marginalise any research that reflects poorly on Workchoices.
I’ve seen two references to it under the breaking news section on the Australian website, but nothing more. Interestingly, the Herald-Sun and Tele gave it a prominent run. The Australian is just shameless.
It looks very much like Howard has closely been following Vladimir Putin’s strategy to try and control the Government benches in perpetuity.
{In addition, Putin’s own popularity and the Kremlin’s “control over politics and the media” virtually guarantees whoever he anoints as his successor a resounding electoral victory in the presidential vote next March.
Commenting on a suggestion he should head the United Russia party list for the December Duma elections, Putin said to huge applause: “I with gratitude accept your proposal.”}
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=253962
A compliant Media is crucial in both cases to holding on to power. In our case the Australian, Daily Telegraph, Age etc, well and truly fit the bill in this country.
# 60 “not have a clue about the economy or economics…. king of lip sync”
Is this a case of 11 times Economics I, rather than 11 years of economics? There have been hints.
Remember how he dealt with Turnbull’s tax paper, arguably the only out-of-the-square thinking on the subject in recent history? He just crudely misrepresented and sprayed all over it, rather than address the substance.
There have even been signs that he’s missed the politics. Recall the nightmare of compliance the GST was when first introduced? It seemed he had just ticked what the bureaucracy had served up.
Interesting that none of the economic and financial journalists has ever probed his economic understanding. If I’m being unfair here, please correct me. It’s just my impression.
Judy, It’s not so much me calling it a retain, it’s just that this was the way the numbers came out. If I recall correctly (my calculations are not in front of me right now ) Wakefield had an unusually high standard deviation, such that the ’96, ’98 and ’01 elections were similar, but ’04 showed a huge swing to Labour. It seems from what you’re saying that it will continue. There are going to be exceptions to my rule, particularly with seats (such as Bennelong) where the demographics change over time.
Thanks for your comments, though 🙂
Antonio (20) – Thanks, you’re right and I’ll correct that.
It is fairly obvious that the Government Gazette chose questions which they thought would produce positive results for the government, and probably trashed any questions they asked that made Labor look good. I mean, comparing treasurers really is bottom-of-the-barrel stuff.
Despite the polls, Rudd is the real underdog. He is up against a ruthless PM who has no sense of decency or fair play and News Ltd., who likewise have no sense of decency or fair play.
Rudd and Labor need to find as many ways as they possibly can to connect with voters but without relying on the mainstream media.
I really do hope Labor wins this election. There is something quite sinister lurking behind the scenes with respect to the relationship between the government and many parts of the media, and it is ultimately doing this country a great deal of damage.
glen, you talk of experiance then your on the wrong horse cobber swan has a degree in economics and costello has?