The Australian today brings us a second round of figures from the weekend Newspoll survey. It shows that in spite of everything, the Prime Minister is rated the leader “more capable of handling Australia’s economy” by 48 per cent to Kevin Rudd’s 33 per cent, while Peter Costello leads Wayne Swan as “most capable of managing Australia’s economy as federal treasurer” by 53 per cent to 21 per cent. The Prime Minister is also rated the leader “most capable of keeping interest rates lower”, although his lead over Rudd has narrowed since last month.
A little bit of push polling for Shanahan to spin up in the Oz. In a nutshell, it means nuttin’.
What % thought Bob Brown would the best Prime Minister?
What % thought The Greens would be the best economic managers of the Australian economy?
What % thought The Greens would be best in managing the challenges of Global Warming?
I saw those poll figures and slowly people are starting to warm to Kevin Rudd as a capable economic manager. By the election date they should be running even against Howard.
Wayne Swan still got a way to go but then again how did Costello fair against Ralph Willis back in ’96 on who would make a better treasurer? Its a mute point.
As for the interest rate question the ALP can equal the government when their time comes to proving how to run the economy & set policy that would not agitates interest rate in a national micro sense. Its the international macro economics that is beyond our politicians whoever is in power.
As with any polls on the economy, this will always favour the conservative parties. People will usually answer that the conservative parties are better with the economy but that Labor is better with health, education etc. Of course, having said that it can be noted that during the 80s Labor was consistantly ranked better at managing interest rates than the Coalition due to the Coalition’s bad record with rates under Frazer. Does this mean that the Coalition should never have been given a chance to ‘manage the economy’ again? Of course not.
To argue that the economy is always what decides elections is to avoid the fact that polling showing the ALP behind on the economy hasn’t stopped them winning elections in the past.
Personally I can’t see the point in reporting this aspect of the poll separately, unless they’re going to look at other areas on interest in subsequent days. For instance, are they going to have articles focusing on the difference in polling between the parties on the issue of IR? Education? Health? Of course the Australian has every right to choose which parts of polling they focus on, but again I can’t see the point in just focusing on one.
Strange sorta poll this… just that storm in a teacup thing all over again. The weird thing about the libs (and their media cheer squad) this year has been their incapacity to maintain a consistent line of attack for more than a couple of days.
Today! Costello smashs up Swan! So what?! I thought the entire point of the ‘attack’ last week was to show that Swan won’t even be Treasurer… that we all have to be really worried about Gillard. But no, now we have to be worried about Swan all over again. I guess next week we’ll be told to worry about Gillard… Get it straight, Liberals and get it consistent. Just choose your attack and go with it – trust yourselves – trust your instinct… god knows – you’ve been good at it. This chopping and changing thing you Libs have got going though… it’s killing you.
I love how the right will use these personal polls and say they are going ok, but ignore the fact they will be smashed in the coming election, if Howard ever calls it.
But will the second round figures provide the reasurance Howard needs to call the election? I think not. Maybe the public is jaded by the endless self-congratulation of the Government in relation to economic management which largely seems to happenn on auto-pilot. In any event, the issue seems much softer in the minds of poll respondents this time around.
Still, I’m betting he’ll head off to see the GG next week and go for a slightly longer campaign to give the acid bath time to work on the ALP. 17 November anyone?
I do think its interesting that a clear majority want Rudd to lead to the nation, but dont think he is a better economic manager.
Perhaps some people think we live in a society and not just an economy?? 😉
Morning all.
For what it’s worth, I have a set of seat predictions based upon the last four elections and the September 2007 Newspoll state-by-state 2PP numbers.
You can read the full details here.
I plan on using the Newspoll results for marginal and safe seats as well, but I’m about to go on holidays for a week, so that one might have to wait.
Blatant push polling by the GG. Otherwise as Call the Election Please states they would have published the data with the rest of the figures and/or included a range of other questions.
When is someone going to pose the question: “Leader most likely to lie to Australians?” Now I’d pay money to have that included in the next NewsPoll.
Howard and Costello have done a very effective Goebbels style job on the economy.
The truth is that the present government has a less impressive record on economic reform and has enjoyed far more economic good fortune than the Hawke/Keating governments.
In three critical respects they have been poor economic managers, and any one of these considerations would merit their emphatic defeat.
Their weak and belated response to climate change will haunt Australia in coming decades. This was a decade the locusts ate.
The foolish fetish they have made over budget surpluses has not only perverted public economic literacy – deficits are desirable when the economy is in recession, as it will again be soon enough. It has also meant that key infrastructure in health and education, plus spending on research, have been sorely neglected. Yet these things are more important than anything else in underpinning long term sustainable growth.
This has ben a shabby and shallow economic record. If Costello and Howard really believe what they say about the economy then they are ignorant fools. Of course they do know better, which makes them worse than fools.
Pretty meaningless stuff, though it does show a softening of the government’s assumed credentials on macro economics. The Costello v Swan stuff is in a complete vacuum: how did Crean do against Costello? By definition people have little chance to compare the two prior to an election. Costello has name recognition, but very little voter sympathy. A more meaningful question would be what degree of credit to voters give Costello for recent growth.
Looks like Rudds “Im an economic conservative” ads are helping to brainwash the public. What a joke…..
Why no poll on who would be better at running health, education etc?
These additional Newspoll questions are a cheap and cynical attempt by The Australian to bolster Howard and his rotten-to-the-core government.
Damian J @ 5,
Howard used 33 day campaigns in 98, 01 and 04. With the Liberals coffer being almost empty, I am not sure that they can afford a longer campaign. Combined with Howards previous track record, I don’t think that the longer campaign will be the go. When he makes up his mind on the date, I reckon he will count back 33 days and call it that day.
sorry Scotty i cant understand your calling Wakefield a likely coalition retain, i live here and believe me the anti Howard feeling is running high, theres a lot of strugglers here and a lot of the single mothers Howard has been aiming at, Wakefield is mainly working class, with even Gawler once strong liberal leaning towards labor now, it’s on a wafer thin edge — one of the seats that should fall first here in South Australia, can you explain to me how you have come to this reasoning.
This appears to be a typical result for an opposition treasurer. I saw Wayne on Sky news Business on Sunday and he gave a good account of himself there. He needs to show that he knows the figures and the stats more often now. a good show of credibility on the interview circuit would do him good. He does answer questions every week on the Daily telegraph site if anyone wants a closer look at him.
Indeed Judy, the issue of taking mothers off parenting payment and onto Newstart when the youngest child turns 6 is something that will be “rewarded” in the natural course of events.
Funny how people have a habit of not forgetting this sort of thing.
On the supposed poverty of the Liberal war chest… $200 million dollars worth of advertising, using a few select advertising companies and all of the country’s media organiations before the campaign starts, buys a lot of “favours”, “discounts”, and “spruik now, pay later” freebies after the campaign starts. The “information” ads will have been paid for at full-freight, top-dollar… the discounts kick in (only to the Libs, of course) once things warm up a little.
Then there was the curious comment on Insiders yesterday that the lawyers have been whispering the government can continue to run the “information” ads right alongside party-political ones during the campaign. Caretaker rules, according to this theory, do not apply to legitimate “information”. Naturally Howard will define “legitimate”.
I’m not too worried about the selectivity of the Newspoll topics today. All it means is that the rest of the questions and their answers were probably pretty ordinary for the government.
But on the topic of Swan v. Costello, as commenters have written above, imagine Costello’s rating, that of an inexperienced lawyer with little economic training, way back in 1996. Close to zero, I’d expect.
Scotty, interesting list…but Labor already holds Ballarat.
Peter theres going to be an awful lot of latchkey kids, these mums just cant afford childcare on the pittance they get {supposing theres enough childcare places} and we’re all going to pay for it with lawless teenagers running riot later on, as it is we have problems.
Then assuming Rudd gets in, the costs for the “information” ads run during the campaign are subtracted from the Liberals public funding. Regardless of the legalities, this current advertising campaign is against the generally accepted conventions of the “caretaker” period should it continue.
P.S. Thanks for the tip on quoting properly William.
Rodent appears to be going back to parliament for his health plan (which bears an uncanny resemblance to Rudd’s, with devolution to regional boards).
I cant believe the pack of losers pretending to be our govt are still trying to work new major policy angles. Its ten minutes *past* midnight.
Obviously they arent that keen to “stand on their record”, hmmm?
Maybe Rodent’s hoping for a Teheran bounce? I suspect he’ll get the opposite.
#12, Julie I don’t think the Lib coffers are almost empty. They have been in power for the last 11 years and would have made sure that the war chest has been growing. I was once at a dinner party and a business guy let loose some info on the 2billion tsunami fund. Howard is the one who controls who gets the contract to do aid work.
I wonder how many of those polled know who Wayne Swan is? The incumbant is always more well known than his/her shadow and thus is credited with knowing their craft. This poll of course was conducted on the same people who said they plan to vote Labor 56% to 44% TPP. So much for the economy being a major factor in their thinking. They just want this government gone.
BB@16
Commonwealth advertising can run during a campaign if both leaders agree.
Despite the best efforts of the lawyers, there will be no government to initiate these acts after parliament has been dissolved and nifty legal arguments will amount to nothing.
JH will be a caretaker prime minister and that’s all.
There is no chance these ads will continue after the election is called.
@ 567 on the previous thread, blindoptimist said:
I can tell you how people will react when the price of petrol nears $2.
OK the OZ, first it was the PREFERRED PM that mattered, not the 2PP, nows its the PREFERRED TREASURER- give me a break!! Desparate stuff indeed
Bryce #23… the reasons weren’t given on Insiders, but as this government has a record of pushing the envelope, and considering “caretaker mode” is merely a convention, who is to stop them from running the info ads right through the campaign (without consultation with Labor)?
I can see your point… if, for example, there had been a real tsunami a couple of days ago headed for Melbourne and the SE coast… of course government ads advising evacuation, emergency etc. procedures would have been OK’d by Labor… but how do you define “emergency”? What about superannuation? Shouldn’t people know about the rules regarding their money, campaign or no campaign? Might that not be defined as an “emergency”? Just askin’…
“Nifty legal arguments” need to be put to a court. Would there be enough time to do so during an election campaign… through several levels of appeal, especially when there is little law (I expect) on the rules surrounding “caretaker mode”. Who would decide?
I think most people can see these “informational ads” are no such thing.
They annoy a lot of people and have convinced me (and plenty of others I know) to volunteer to throw the b*stards out. There’s always swings and roundabouts.
Natinoal media is good, but the grassroots campaign will be very much won by Labor.
This is stuipid, you would hope that the treasurer of 11 years might be able to hold a lead, at the end of the day as good as Wayne Swan is he doesn’t quite have the same media buy.
Sift through enough shit and you might find a shiny nuget, good work Dennis
In news from The Australian, new research has shown that the length of a politicians toenails is an accurate indicator of their ability to keep interest rates low – between now and the next newspoll, Dennis Shanahan will be doing a number of features on John Howard’s toenails and his amazing ability to “claw” back support in the lead up to the election. In addition, the next newspoll will feature the following question:
“In light of new research showing that a leader with long toenails is the safest bet for the economy and the clear fact that Prime Minister Howard has very long toenails, who do you think is the person best qualified to manage the Australian economy – John “sharp-toes” Howard or Kevin “stumpy-feet” Rudd?
BB@26
Yes, you could well be on the money here…
http://canberra.yourguide.com.au/detail.asp?class=your%20say&subclass=general&story_id=585571&category=Opinion
Goebbels was a babe in the woods.
Lefty E thread @20.
Just to back that up….. policy on the run they call it. Rats on the run!
24
John Withheld Says:
October 2nd, 2007 at 9:04 am
@ 567 on the previous thread, blindoptimist said:
Well, you never really know how people might react to an American attack on Iran.
I can tell you how people will react when the price of petrol nears $2.
Yes and it wouldn’t need to get near that either. It was the initial spike to @ $1.50 about 12 to 18 months ago that sparked calls for the investigation into possible price fixing. I believe last month that Costello continued that into early December.
Yes, well, we were all wondering where the usual Oz slant had gone yesterday. As others have pointed out, having questions about economics and treasurers without questions on health, education, foreign policy or environment is a fairly transparent exercise in carrying the government’s water.
RobertBe,
it’s all about the toenails.
Optimist,
Thanks for putting that image in our heads. I was eating my breakfast.
An either / or question doesn’t measure the real difference. People might be choosing Howard on economic management because of incumbancy and if asked the degree of difference – ‘a lot better’ ‘a littel better’ ‘not much difference’ you might see that there is not much difference.
The same of course goes with Costello. In 1996 an unknown quanitity in comparison to the incumbant. And has only needed to sit back and watch the Keating/China economy rake in the surpluses for him, making him look good.
And with today’s hospital policy the Govt is showing a remarkable lack of ability to produce policies considering it has 11 years experience and the vast resources of the public service.
BrissyRod, comment #6, you could possibly be on to something here:
“Perhaps some people think we live in a society and not just an economy??”
Aye, methinks the revenue producing units are getting uppity.
With Serfchoices, the Howard govt. is tampering with the “ava good weekend” Aussie way of life. ‘Tis a zealot’s step too far.
“Can’t play sport/attend a family function/go to a barby/ visit me sick bruvver/ go to the the flicks, etc. because I’ve been ordered into work and if I don’t go, I’ll get the arse, and have to deal with the dickheads at CentreLink.”
These Orwellian “Choices” appear to have met a wall, the writing on which says: “Get Stuffed, Johnny”.
On the matter of new ideas In psephology….
For 30 years, Adam had ’em; since May 07, Possum’s got ’em.
Can ‘The Australian’ now be officially classified as a junk newspaper?
As in junk bonds – something that people once thought had value but when focussed upon had no intrinsic value or quality. A waste of money.
Kina,
I think it best to start with the simpler question:
Can The Australian be classified as a newspaper?
Why are you bagging The Australian just because it scrutinises the Opposition which is their job if you dont like it dont read it Optimist and go and read The Age or the Socialist Morning Herald.
Heheh Swan is the butt of every political joke poor bugger wonder how he enjoys this tag the good old Rooster but BB i will bet Costello had higher approval ratings as opposition Treasury spokesman than Wayne Swan has today…why you ask because unlike Swan, Costello never has had to lip sync his lines with his advisers behind him lol!
More information on the Ukrainian election.
http://euobserver.com/9/24873
Howard and Costello’s health plan a dog’s breakfast or a pig’s ear I reckon.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Hospitals-need-more-money-doctors-say/2007/10/02/1191091070548.html
Glen, why do you assume Howard refused to allow for a debate between the Treasurer and Shadow Treasurer prior to the 1996 election?
As for debate on the Australian, I treat it the same as any of the other Australian tabloids. It’s completely irrelevant.
Julie @ 15
In 2004 the election was called on Aug 29th for an Oct 9th Election – A 41 day campaign
And the left continues to dominate in South America. Places never considered likely 6 years ago.
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN0130615920071001
CTEP the Libs were that far ahead they didnt need to risk an off performance by Costello which is the reason for no debate…however the reason Swan will refuse a debate is because he’ll want a staffer behind him to lip sync his replies lol.
I like Poland’s politics there is a Right Wing party in Government and a Centre-right Party in Opposition and the Left Wingers have 2 small socialist parties that get less than 10% of the vote sweet!
Glen is eating scraps and saying out loud – Yum, this is really delicious.
While the scrap throwers are rolling their eyes and saying to themselves – You know, we really should have him put down.