Month: September 2007

The eastern suburban Melbourne seat of Deakin was created in 1937, when it extended far beyond the city limits to Seymour and Mansfield. It gained its wholly urban orientation in 1969, and since losing Box Hill in 1977 has been centred on Blackburn and Nunawading (currently extending east down the Maroondah Highway to Ringwood and Croydon). Despite its middle suburban location, Deakin does not fit the mortgate belt mould: census figures show an average number of dwellings being purchased, a high level of full ownership and few renters. As my electorate maps at Crikey demonstrate, there is a clear trend of increasing support for the Liberals as the electorate extends eastward. This does not correlate with income levels, which are in fact slightly higher in the west, and might instead be explained by a notable lack of ethnic diversity in the east.

For a seat that has been marginal for most of its history, Deakin has brought Labor remarkably little joy. Their only win was when the Hawke government came to power in 1983, and it was lost again when Hawke went to the polls early in December 1984. The seat presented a picture of electoral stability from 1984 to 2001, when Liberal margins ranged only from 0.7 per cent to 2.5 per cent (although the 1990 redistribution muffled the impact of a 4.3 per cent Liberal swing). The 2004 election gave the Liberals their first comfortable win since 1977, with a 3.4 per cent swing that was evenly distributed from one of the electorate to the other. The 5.0 per cent shift required by Labor at the coming election would be the seat’s biggest since a 5.1 per cent swing in 1980, which came off the back of Labor’s twin disasters of 1975 and 1977. Phillip Barresi (right) has maintained an uncomfortable hold on the seat since the 1996 election, after he defeated incumbent Ken Aldred for preselection. Aldred in turn became member in 1990 after his predecessor, Julian Beale, defeated him for preselection in his existing seat of Bruce. He has since made more than one attempt at a comeback, most recently when he won preselection for the Labor-held seat of Holt for this year’s election. This was overturned by the state party’s Kroger-Costello dominated administration committee, which was concerned over his past history of eccentric pronouncements. Barresi’s preselection does not appear to have been challenged in his 11 years as member, despite his failure to win promotion.

Labor’s candidate is Electrical Trades Union official Mike Symon (left), who had a three-vote preselection win in March over local GP Peter Lynch, the candidate from 2004. A plebiscite of local party members reportedly gave Lynch 64.8 per cent support, but this was overwhelmed by the 50 per cent of the vote determined by the state party’s tightly factionalised Public Office Selection Committee. Lynch complained of irregularities, but his appeal was rebuffed by the national executive. In an email to party members published on Andrew Landeryou’s The Other Cheek, Lynch (who claimed support from the Left, Pledge and Independents factions) spoke of a deal between the Right and the Left sub-faction centred on Dean Mighell and the Electrical Trades Union, in which the former would support Symon and the latter would back Peter McMullin in Corangamite. Also on The Other Cheek was a letter from Kathy Jackson, a senior figure in the Health Services Union, which accused her own Right faction’s leadership of misleading Lynch into thinking he had their backing, while they instead marshalled support for Symon. Symon’s ETU links became a target of Coalition barbs following the controversies surrounding state secretary Dean Mighell and ousted Franklin candidate Kevin Harkins.

Morgan’s now-weekly face-to-face poll, from a sample of 844, shows Labor’s two-party preferred lead narrowing from 59-41 to 56.5-43.5. The Coalition’s primary vote is up from 36 per cent to 39.5 per cent, and Labor’s down from 51 per cent to 49.5 per cent.

GetUp! has published a poll of Senate voting intention it commissioned from Galaxy. The survey of 1004 voters was conducted from September 7-9, and shows the Labor vote up from 35 per cent to 39 per cent from the 2004 election, the Coalition down from 45 per cent to 35 per cent, the Greens up from 8 per cent to 10 per cent, the Democrats steady on 2 per cent and Family First up from 2 per cent to 3 per cent. This seems a more plausible set of figures than those produced by Morgan, which invariably inflate the Democrats. A similar GetUp!/Galaxy Senate poll was published in June.

NOTE: This has been hived off the previous post because someone asked for a thread dedicated to the Senate, so please keep it on topic.

It could well be the last Question Time edition …

• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reports that the Prime Minister is “considering calling the election within three weeks”. A return of parliament on October 15 is not ruled out, but is rated “unlikely”.

• The Australian has published Newspoll’s quarterly cumulative polling, broken down into state-by-state and marginal versus non-marginal seats.

• Antony Green’s federal election guide should be in business at the ABC Elections page from around 9am. A new feature will be the election calculator showcased by Antony on Tuesday’s edition of Lateline.

• The ALP hierarchy appears to have pulled the rug from under its candidate for Cowper, John Fitzroy, by reopening nominations for the seat. This decision reflects Labor’s increasing confidence it can overhaul Nationals MP Luke Hartsuyker’s 6.6 per cent margin. It is expected the nomination will now go to “local training consultant” Paul Sekfy, who ran in 1993, 1996 and 1998 without cutting the margin below 4.1 per cent. Fitzroy was preselected unopposed in June and, according to The Australian’s Imre Salusinszky, recently quit his job with the local area health service to conduct his campaign.

• Eden-Monaro has been the focus of much attention this week. Both the Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader campaigned in Queanbeyan on Wednesday, where Kevin Rudd proved unable to tell a reporter much about current income tax scales. On the same day, it emerged that Liberal member Gary Nairn’s chief-of-staff Dr Peter Phelps had told Mike Kelly, decorated Iraq war veteran and Labor candidate, that his attitude to his service was that of a Nazi concentration camp guard.

• Andrew Fraser of The Australian reports that the parliament’s two non-retiring independents, Kennedy MP Bob Katter and New England MP Tony Windsor, “spelt out their terms in the event of a hung parliament”. Windsor says he will back whichever party wins the most seats or, in the event of a tie, the most votes. Katter will “support the party that promises to mandate 10 per cent ethanol in petrol”. One suspects there will be more than one such party, if that’s what it comes to.

• At the end of what has been a surprisingly good week for the government, the Daily Telegraph has gone in hard against Labor on successive days, running its politics coverage under the banners “Rudd’s bungle” and “Rudd’s meltdown”.

• I’m starting to get those pesky “bandwidth about to be exceeded” emails, so readers of a generous persuasion might like to make use of the the PayPal button on the sidebar. I conservatively estimate it will cost $200 to keep the site going until the end of the month, with further bills to follow towards the end of each month until the election is held. UPDATE: I’ve received more than enough donations to cover any bandwidth requirements for this month (many thanks to all). Anyone who still wants to donate is of course more than welcome to do so, but I should not deceive anyone into thinking that it won’t be going into my pocket.

Located in Perth’s eastern suburbs, Hasluck was created when Western Australia gained an extra seat at the 2001 election, from territory that had previously been in Perth, Tangney and Swan. As my maps for Crikey illustrate, it consists of three distinct population areas which lean to Labor in the north and south, and to the Liberals in the centre. The northern area includes Midland, home to a high proportion of elderly voters, rent payers and low-income earners, and the more Liberal-friendly Guildford, which is demographically unremarkable on all measures. The central area includes middle-income suburbs around Kalamunda in the Darling Scarp, home to a large number of English migrants, as well as mortgage-sensitive Forrestfield and Maida Vale nearer the city. The southern suburbs of Gosnells, Thornlie and Maddington are marked by lower levels of income and home ownership.

Hasluck had a notional Labor margin of 2.6 per cent going into the 2001 election, when it swung to the Liberals by an insufficient 0.6 per cent. The inaugural member was Sharryn Jackson (right), who had worked for 15 years as an official with the Left faction Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union. Jackson looked set to have her seat pulled from under her when Western Australian’s seat entitlement fell back below 14.5 in late 2002, but its nose was back in front when the determination was made the following March (it has since risen above 14.6). She was instead seen off by a 3.6 per cent swing to the Liberals at the 2004 election, part of an allergic reaction to Mark Latham throughout the suburbs of Perth. Labor managed to pick up swings in a few of the wealthier booths around Kalamunda, but this was swamped by a substantial shift to the Liberals in low-income and mortgage-paying areas.

The incoming Liberal member was Stuart Henry (left), former executive director of the Western Australian Master Plumbers Association. Henry has received rather less publicity in the past three years than the member he unseated, who did not take long to establish that her political career was still a going concern. Jackson was elected state president of the ALP in November 2005 ahead of the Right-backed Sarah Burke, daughter of Brian, whom she again defeated the following year. She was also appointed by the state government to head its Community Cabinet Liaison Unit, prompting The West Australian to complain she had been “parachuted” into a “$120,000-a-year role running a State Government propaganda unit”. When Kim Beazley lost the leadership in December 2006, it was reported that the LHMWU was urging Jackson to contest preselection for his seat of Brand, but she declared herself set on recovering Hasluck. Jackson was duly preselected in February ahead of Silvia Barzotto of the New Right faction.

Amid a general picture of gloom about its electoral prospects nationally, the Coalition has been able to console itself that it appeared to be holding up in the west. One indication of this was a 400-sample Westpoll survey published by The West Australian on June 15, which showed Henry leading Jackson 48 per cent to 42 per cent on the primary vote and 53-47 on two-candidate preferred. However, more recent statewide surveys have been somewhat less encouraging for the Liberals.

• I failed to mention it at the time, but followers of this site no doubt picked up on the poll of Sydney and Melbourne voters conducted by Nexus Research over the weekend. Well, bless their cotton socks, for they have published their data in a form that allows cross-tabulation of responses to the various questions asked, including age, occupational status and vote at the 2004 election.

• After a nudge from the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters, the Australian Electoral Commission has ruled it will be business as usual this year for the National Tally Room in Canberra. This now performs a basically ceremonial role, and there have been frequent suggestions it might be scrapped. JSCEM argues that the tally room presents a “visible symbolism of transparency in the election process” (UPDATE: Seems I’m a bit slow here).

• Greg Kelton of The Advertiser speaks of a 64-page report which translates last year’s South Australian state election results into federal outcomes, compiled by state parliamentary librarian Jenni Newton-Farrelly. I have not been able to locate the report, but it shows Labor gaining Sturt, Boothby, Makin, Wakefield and Kingston, with the Liberals dropping a Senate seat to “either the Democrats, Family First or the Greens”.

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports “evidence of a groundswell of support for Maxine McKew” among voters in Bennelong‘s conspicuous Chinese community.

• Andrew Fraser of The Australian reports that the much-touted plebiscites on Queensland council amalgamations will be conducted by postal ballot after the federal election, as the Australian Electoral Commission does not wish for confusion to arise over postal election votes.

• Speaking of which, the Sydney Morning Herald reports the number of postal, pre-poll and absentee votes is expected to top 20 per cent at this election, due to the active promotion of postal voting by the major parties. This increases the chance that the result will still be up in the air when counting closes on election night.

• Greg Roberts of The Australian reports that registration of Pauline Hanson’s United Australia Party will not be cleared in time for the election if it is called in the next few days. This would result in her list again appearing under an anonymous group name, which was deemed to have cost her votes in 2004.

• Anyone speak Portuguese?

Once the preserve of a small band of moody loners, online psephology is becoming a boom industry as the federal election approaches. I have added a roll of external links to my sidebar for non-partisan sites specifically dedicated to the election, which are detailed below. Readers are invited to alert me to any sites meeting these criteria which I have missed, bearing in mind my definition of “non-partisan” does not extend to sites such as The Big Switch which promote particular issue positions. Adam Carr’s election guide goes without saying; Antony Green’s guide will be unveiled by the ABC on Friday, and not earlier today as previously reported.

• Google: 2007 Australian Federal Election. The search engine behemoth does no evil with its mouth-watering range of election features, highlighted by the incorporation of colour-coded electoral boundaries into Google Maps (with polling booth locations soon to follow). Google’s Rob Shilkin sold it thus in today’s Crikey:

The site employs the best of Google technology and products – including search, Google Maps, Google Earth, Google news, YouTube, Trends and gadgets – to provide easy-to-use, up to date and accessible Australian election information to voters, politicians and the media. It’s designed to help Australians to stay on top of news, electorate information and candidates, read and hear different perspectives, have their say, research MPs and track issues … The tools were all built by Google’s Australian engineers, in Sydney, and represent the first time that Google has created a dedicated election site anywhere in the world. Our local team wanted to show that the Internet can make a meaningful and substantive contribution to the democratic process, by synthesising masses of information about politicians and issues at the click of a mouse. We’ll continue to input further information and content to the site as they become available. It’s designed for political junkies, as well as those who want to find basic information (like what seat they live in).

• The Bullring. Excellent election-focused group blog from The Bulletin, featuring Stanford University academic and psephoblogger Simon Jackman, Perth-based academic and John Howard biographer Peter van Onselen, wild card Jack Marx and sundry Bulletin journalists.

• youdecide2007. Promises to provide “a forum for a seat-by-seat coverage of the 2007 federal election, produced by YOU, the voters”. The site is “led by the Creative Industries faculty at QUT, funded by the ARC, and supported by project partners SBS, On Line Opinion and the Brisbane Institute”.

• FederalElection.com.au. A “revolutionary portal and first for Australia” which “enables you to listen, watch, express your opinion AND shape the political discourse”. Produced by an affiliate of Channel Seven with input from Roy Morgan, the site is rather thin at present but we are told their “new site will be launched shortly”.

• iVote. The election made hip by a “national network of hardworking, innovative and driven young Australians”. More style than content at this stage.

• Oz Election 2007, Political Animal and Australian Politics Forum. Forum sites: one is explicitly related to the election, the other two might as well be in the current climate.

• Ozvotes. Newly launched group blog, seeking contributors.

Seven News has reported that the most keenly awaited opinion poll in recent memory, tomorrow’s Newspoll, will show “a significant shift back to the Coalition” from last fortnight’s 59-41.

UPDATE: The ABC now reports the Coalition has “clawed back eight points”, hence the new headline.

UPDATE 2: Report up at the News site confirms the headline figure, without providing further detail.

UPDATE 3: Graphic here. Note the intriguing resilience of the Prime Minister’s ratings on performance approval and preferred Liberal leader.