Newspoll: 55-45

Seven News has reported that the most keenly awaited opinion poll in recent memory, tomorrow’s Newspoll, will show “a significant shift back to the Coalition” from last fortnight’s 59-41.

UPDATE: The ABC now reports the Coalition has “clawed back eight points”, hence the new headline.

UPDATE 2: Report up at the News site confirms the headline figure, without providing further detail.

UPDATE 3: Graphic here. Note the intriguing resilience of the Prime Minister’s ratings on performance approval and preferred Liberal leader.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

642 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. Hope the election doesn’t clash with this…..Punk legends the Sex Pistols announced that they will stage a one-off gig in November to celebrate the 30th anniversary of their controversial album Never Mind the Bollocks.

  2. Simon howson,

    Was it said of Whitlam, Hawke and Keating when something like Workchoices had been introduced?

    So many people say Kevin Rudd is doing well becuase he provides a credible alternative to “worstchoices”.

    The fact is, I just don’t believe that Kevin Rudd believes Workchoices is bad.

  3. The day that the head honcho’s at treasury get paid less than Howard & Costello is the day that I believe that the Libs are great economic managers.

  4. [The fact is, I just don’t believe that Kevin Rudd believes Workchoices is bad.]

    Rudd is the son of National (Country) Party voting parents, so he obviously differentiates himself from what his parents thought. I think Rudd understands that allowing people to collectively discuss and bargain for conditions in the workplace is a fundamental of democracy.

    WorkChoices is simply designed to stop that. It has nothing to do with improving the economy, making our nation stronger, or stopping industrial disputes.

  5. Yes marky, the best friend medicare ever had is definitely not the Howard government. They want a health system where your credit card is more important than your health care card. The liberals are gutless and full of B/S.

    NOTE CONSERVATIVES:- The true sign of the wealth of a nation are the quality services it is able to provide it’s people. If anybody is serious about health, you must vote labor ahead of liberal.

  6. Economic managers… to me Costello is our worst treasurer this country has ever had.. followed hate to say it Keating… Economic rationalist crap… Look where no borrowing is taking us… When will these economic dumbos realise that Government debt is the cheapest debt you can have… instead they are allowing private debt to mount and eventually possibly next year or year after the economic system will collapse and when it does it will be bad… it already is beginning… lucky we have some resources to export if we didn’t we would be stuffed…
    Look what privatisation has created a system of enterprises ripping of people for profit.. Qantas and a failed group of airlines since… Commonwealth Bank with executives earning millions and workers getting screwed… Tariff reform with little manufacturing left in this country… i could go… But really these economic dills should ask themselves why did this country do so well in the 50’s, 60’s and 70’s whilst now we have people stuck in debt with many people working casually and the rich well now they are incredibly wealthy, economic managers no, people who have not got a clue…

  7. Goodness me, what a difference a day – or two – makes. Greetings, Baz & other earthlings. For goodness sake, the poll is only interesting in relation to whether or not it is believable in relation to sample size, MoE, and overall trend (barring Aristotle’s fog ) in relation to the other polls, as far as an acolyte (L plates), like me can make out. For the life of me, I can’t see how they, the evil neo con bastards, can defeat a momentary lapse of reason on the part of the electorate. Think about it!

  8. Rudd has no problems with individual contracts, no problem with keeping unfair dismissal provisions, no problem with keeping curtaliments on the right to strike (including striking against Workchoices!), no problem at preventing strike action in support of industry-wide agreements. He does , however, want the awards system to be centralised (as do most employers, which is why they have not used AWAs).

    Curtailing unions does not make Rudd different from previous Labor leaders, but his internal relationship to them, especially his lack of union sponsorship is different. I am sure he wants to make this the last election that Labor’s union ties will be used against it.

  9. Simon….. workchoices is only marginally about exploiting workers. Primarily it is about attacking the ability to form a union. To organise….It is about destroying unions. In the end creating a one party state. Look at this governments’ reforms to the electoral laws, they are prelude to create a system of apathy… like Britain and America.

  10. Does Rudd really believe in work2choices?

    The true ideology of work2choices (take it or leave it) is to transfer people from work for the dole for charitable organisations to heaps more people working for the dole in the private sector.

    If Rudd believed in this extreme right wing ideology, he would have joined the liberal party.

  11. 608
    Centre Says:
    September 18th, 2007 at 10:20 pm
    Yes marky, the best friend medicare ever had is definitely not the Howard government. They want a health system where your credit card is more important than your health care card. The liberals are gutless and full of B/S.

    NOTE CONSERVATIVES:- The true sign of the wealth of a nation are the quality services it is able to provide it’s people. If anybody is serious about health, you must vote labor ahead of liberal.

    Yes, they want to turn the health care system into what the USA has. It is NOT any good there, I know I lived there for 43 years. If you can’t afford health insurance, you simply don’t have any. You go to emergency rooms or live “sick”. People have mortgaged their homes in some cases to pay for their needed medical treatment. Health care SUCKS in the USA and this is one the big positives that Australian society has going for it. I was shocked when I first arrived here to see that private health insurance had even arrived on the scene for anyone. You don’t want the wonderful system you have to turn into the American mess. I had health insurance over there and using one of my prenancies as an example, my family STILL had @ $4000 US in costs above and beyond what health insurance covered over the 9+ months. Many others have horror stories that will make that look like a walk in the park. As Centre says above, if you don’t like the scenario I have just painted for you, you must vote Labor.

  12. Centre whilst i agree with most of your sentiments, but i must ask.. Are you a spokesperson for team Rudd? because you write as if you are…

  13. Agree Julie… To further illustrate your thoughts and not to advertise such but i will people see “SICKO” by Michael Moore it showcases a system in which no person even people visiting the United States should feel safe about if they sick…
    Must say though Australian system is not the best… France and British Health system is many times over superior.

  14. Rudd is not curtailing the unions its all a facade….

    Rudd like every single Labor MP in Federal/State Parliament is a member of a trade union…now considering the Unions represent around 20% of the working population yet 100% of Labor’s Parliamentary base how is that a broad cross section of society???….they have and will always be beholden to the Union movement they are obviously the “Labor” party.

    I wonder which Union Mr Rudd is a member of ???
    I wonder if Garrett or the rest of their star candidates had to join a Union???

    Roxon showed tonight why she shouldn’t be trusted with a Ministry…she simply trotted out baseless petty attacks on Abbott obviously she expected Abbott to go negative which didnt eventuate as he turned up to debate the issues of health not to start a slanging match.

    Roxon’s approach was all over the place and her policies are like all of Labor’s doesnt sound so bad except when you get to the nitty gritty and there is no detail its all spin no substance…Roxon says she’ll get tough on the States but wont say how she’ll take over public hospitals…typical ‘trust me’ politics what a joke.

    If Labor are serious about being viewed as a competent alternative government they need to give us more than empty platitudes the public deserve substance…

  15. No marky, I am not a member of any party and I have never been a member of any union. I consider myself as economically conservative but very socially progressive. I can’t stand Howard and what his liberal party has become.

  16. Glen watch out for those “scary unions”… Better call in the Ghostbusters team…. Abbott and Costello…
    Oh and not forgetting Fran Bailey…

  17. A reason again a late November Election, when rates have risen we have two weeks later seen a rise in the ALP vote, if the poll is late novemeber and rates riase on Nov 3 then the ALP will move further ahead.

    Looking at the past two elections and the 1996 election graph all from this point of the campaign til election have newspoll moving towards who wins so if the the next two news polls move towards the ALP or stay as they are now then game over, if it isn’t already over.

    I found the comments of the newspoll guy in the Age to be bizarre for we have seen several large moments but not have seriously threaten to put the Liberals in front.

    If Rudd was leader of the Liberal Party yes I would vote for him, but he would have the Liberals more to the centre making them more worthy of my vote.

    If Howard was leader of the ALP well I wouldn’t vote for him, I judge my vote on policy and Howard has failed on several issues.

  18. Wow, the conservatives wrongly feel they have a chance now. Just check out the Newspoll sight and put this poll into perpsective. The Libs are still stuffed.

  19. [Rudd like every single Labor MP in Federal/State Parliament is a member of a trade union…]

    Every Liberal MP is a member of the anti-union union.

  20. Rudd did well on Today Tonight this evening. Forget Kerry O’Brien, the folks in marginal seats who’ll decide this election are more likely to be viewers of the commercial current affairs shows.
    Glen: getting very cocky all of a sudden? I love it when the Liberals suddenly are full of hubris and arrogance. Pride cometh before a fall.

  21. bmwofoz: I too found Newspoll CEO comments very strange. Especially discrediting his own poll (the last one) and then predicting what the future poll movemnts will be. If they diverge from his prediction either he will be wrong or the polls are discredited. Very odd for someone in his position.

  22. Glen… Yep Labor members are members of a Union…
    Who cares? Fair dinkum… How many members of Liberal Party are members of Employers association who constantly bang on about a deregulated workplace… oh not forgetting their spokespeople Ridout and Hendy…

  23. [ suddenly are full of hubris and arrogance. Pride cometh before a fall. ]

    I don’t usually come to Glen’s defence but to be honest I think there is plenty of hubris and arrogance from BOTH sides. While I’m supporting Rudd in this election I’m getting tired of all the “we’re going to wipe out the Liberals” talk from the Labor side. How about everyone comes down to earth.

  24. thanks for the responses

    i think one of the things that ruddk has proven over howardj is that the ‘middle ground’ has accepted ruddk into their lives.

    a true story for glen and co at lib hq

    mrs b (she didnt want name used) is convinced kevin rudd leads the liberal party-after much argument and hair-pulling mrs b said sweetly”most people dont know arthur from martha let alone what party they are from,now have a scone and stop fretting” when i said that he wasnt in her electorate she said”yes that young mike kelly-good liberal stock that”

    the 55-45 split is the basement level for Lab support and will only grow again come the nice party ads and future planning that rudd will undoubtably unleash

    this aint chess rudds playing-its more like RISK (for those dedicated gamers out there)

  25. Glen… Yep Labor members are members of a Union…

    Yes and they invaded Iraq as well and they throw their children overboard and visit strip clubs and all of those nasty things. Unions are the cause of all evils in this world and without them we’d all be better off.

    Get real.

  26. It truly is odd the reaction to this poll form mainly the MSM. If the last Newspoll was 56% then this 55% wouldn’t have raised an eyebrow. It has to be better for Labor than the Coalition. If you had a choice of the following which one would you choose?


    The 59% has got to be more encouraging for Labor, to know that its vote is strong enough to produce a way out 59% with Newspoll, especially coming at the same time other polls indicated an increase in the Labor vote. They can’t have all been outliers or at the same extreme of MOE. The hint has to be that there is an increase in the Labor vote out there somewhere.

    Labor and everyone else is expecting a contraction in the polls [an inevitable consequence of Howard’s usual negative campaigning] as the campaign gets under way. The longer they can keep this 10-18 point gap the more likely there is of a Labor win and of a good one.

    Rudd has been good so far at wrong footing the Govt, keeping them off their campaigning, sucking their oxygen. You can bet Howard hates Rudd intensely for humilating him the way he certainly has been, only an inch away from being dumped. I am sure the PM will often replay his begging and pleading on ABC to the voter to feel sorry for him. How humilating is that! Rudd has disected Howard – a brilliant job considering the economy is rolling along smoothly.

  27. John Anderson does one final dummy spit.

    [Former deputy prime minister John Anderson has taken a swipe at the “deep intellects” of Treasury head Ken Henry and other public service mandarins in his farewell speech.

    Mr Anderson said Treasury was openly hostile to some key government programs like Auslink.

    In his valedictory speech in parliament, Mr Anderson, who became Nationals leader and deputy prime minister in 1999 and returned to the backbench to see out his final term in 2005, referred to a 2005 speech by Dr Henry.]

  28. Will @ 638 – that simply and dramatically confirms Labor’s contention earlier this year as part of their Education Revolution launch. I wonder how much air play it will get. It simply proves Costello and Howard have been deliberately wasting our decade of prosperity in order to pork barrel at elections.

  29. “But Education Minister Julie Bishop says the figures are flawed, because they do not take into account the majority of spending on vocational education.”

    She equates a university education [engineers, doctors, teachers etc] and a decent primary and high school education with vocational training!

    A nation of basket weavers? So we have taken funding away from all education and pumped it into vocational education?

    This is quite disgraceful and revealing as well. Where on earth do the spend?

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