Morgan: 53-47 to Labor in Bennelong

Today’s Fairfax broadsheets carry a Morgan survey of 472 voters conducted in Bennelong on Friday and Saturday, which shows Maxine McKew leading John Howard 53-47 on two-party preferred and 45.5 per cent to 42.5 per cent on the primary vote. Under the circumstances, the Prime Minister would be greatly relieved – the result is no worse than most of the other Bennelong polls published this year, not a single one of which has had him in front. Indeed, it marks an almost significant narrowing from the 55-45 recorded by ACNielsen’s last such poll in February.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

416 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor in Bennelong”

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  1. The 55-45 looks to be shift back to the mean, after a few weeks of even worse polls for the government. It’s funny how a mere 10 point lead can be spun into good news for Howard. It suggests to me that some of Labor’s vote is indeed “soft”, but mainly that of those voters who have stretched the lead from 55 to 59 at times. The real score is probably somewhere around where this Newspoll lands.

    At any rate, hopefully it will encourage Howard to call the election this week.

  2. It looks like the Media still like to think that they have a major influence on public opinion.

    {SYDNEY, Sept 12 Asia Pulse – Editorial support for Labor or the coalition in Fairfax (ASX:FXJ) newspapers at the coming federal election will be determined exclusively by editors, chief executive David Kirk says.

    At the 2004 federal election, The Sydney Morning Herald pointedly refused to endorse either the government or the opposition, while The Age newspaper threw its support behind the Liberal/National coalition.

    Mr Kirk said the decision to editorialise one way or another would again be in the hands of editors this year.

    “The editors will determine their own policy on it,” Mr Kirk said.

    “I do have a clear view on it but I’m not going to tell you what my view is.

    “I’m sure editors will come to the right conclusion about what works for our readers and what our responsibilities are,” he said.}

    I think its about time that these egotistical editors bow out and go back to reporting the news in an independent manner which they are supposed to.

  3. “Unless AC or Morgan or Galaxy for that matter and i think Galaxy will be out soon…show the gap below 55-45 i dont think Howard will call the poll…”

    Glen, if Howard waits for even better poll results, then there is a danger that matters might take a turn for the worst again. By that stage, he really will run out of time and therefore be forced to enter the “official” campaign on a very bad note. He should seize the moment now and call the election, once the good news stories start filtering through the media tomorrow and the next day.

    By the way, as some have alluded to, it was not long ago that a good news story for the government would involve a poll of 45-55. It shows how much we have become accustomed to “annihilation” polling figures.

  4. I think there is too much being read in one poll. The last Newspoll was in line with most of those from other organisations and was consistent with what was actually happening in reality. At the moment given that no-one else is picking up a swing to the government and there being nothing to see in reality why it should be so (in fact even the reverse) it would be more likely to be an outlier.

    But given the morale of the Libs it will be taken as an excuse by Howard to hang on and an excuse by the ‘challengers’ not to do anything.

  5. I feel quite let down by the early release of the Newspoll figures.

    I certainly agree that it’s more than likely to be an outlier but will certainly give the media something to run on for a day or two.

    {PUBLIC support appears to be swinging back behind Prime Minister John Howard with an eight-point recovery for the Coalition in tomorrow’s key Newspoll.

    The poll, to be published in The Australian, shows Labor still heading for an election win, leading the Government 55 per cent to 45 on a two-party preferred basis.

    But Labor’s support has dropped four points and the Coalition’s has risen by the same amount from the last Newspoll a fortnight ago, when the opposition had an 18-point lead. }

    Didn’t take long. This one on line by 7.30pm.

  6. It was mid-afternoon and Captain Hamster awoke from a surprisingly restful sleep. he had just completed a brisk walk around midships in his yellow pantaloons when the news came that the newpole had arrived.

    The crew had inspected the damage to the old mast after the storm and had all got behind it to try to spin it around a bit but realised that it was beyond salvage. The newpole was a bit shorter than they had all hoped but just seeing it there, gleaming, in the sun was all it took to raise their spirits. So after frisking for daggers, Captain Hamster gave Petulant Pete a hug and even Peter managed a smirk (mind you, he seemed to have a never-ending supply).

    On the port side, the black ship that had been following their every move had come alongside. The Jolly Rudder was fluttering ominously in the warm onshore breeze and the crew of Hamster’s ship took a closer look at the menacing crew…

  7. Captain Rudder was looking fidgety on the bridge and heat from the sun bearing down overhead had caused a bead of sweat to run awkwardly down his nose, dripping onto the wheel, his mousy, overlong fringe dangling bookishly over his expansive forehead. All eyes were on him.

    There was no champagne now, no hollow chuckle, not even a vague homily about fairness left. The crew had secretly doubted his strength of leadership when unable to control Bleatty the Sorry with his Quixotic aspirations on the Queen’s own Land so now, they watched to see what their charismatic leader would do.

    “Well, yes. Ah. If you’ll excuse my rather uncharacteristically ribald idiom,
    STUFF THE BUGGERS! LOAD THE CANNONS FIRST MATE!!”. A nervous roar rang out and Droll Jack Swan nearly tripped over his feet to give the order. In a frenzy of activity, there were shouts, much stuffing of gunpowder and the satisfying “clunk” of loading cannons. Each sailor with a wild, nervous grin at this unexpected pre-emptive strike..

    The crew on the ship adjacent seemed not to notice the commotion and were listening instead to Petulant Pete extolling the virtues of their famous Captain, though they seemed to be strained to hear him, his teeth were gritted so intensely. Overhead a flash of black sailed past and an almighty “BOOOOOOM” rang out across the silence.

  8. JWH is on the way back!

    As a Bennelong resident and regular reader of this blog, I find the comments of the pseudo intellectual lefties a hoot!

    Lots of talk about McKew and her “talent” as a candidate, but no mention of her lack of policy detail, lack of interest in the local issues nor her poor performance at her public forums where she was overshadowed by her guest speakers and even one member of the audience at the Epping function.

    Just because McKew is somewhat of a celebrity (as much of a celebrity as one can be on the low rating, ABC), it has to be said that stardom does not automatically translate into votes (Cheryl Kernot a case in point). She is a lower north shore/inner city socialite with little to nothing in common with the working class suburbs of West Ryde, Ryde, Meadowbank & Ermington or a comfortable, middle class and conservative suburb such as Carlingford.

    JWH reportedly received a heroes welcome up at Carlingford Court and at the school fete on Sunday. Apart from the usual, rent a lefty crowd, there’s no apparent anger or large numbers of voters in Bennelong waiting with baseball bats. He’s been running street stalls across the length and breadth of Bennelong for the last three months and his people were out at a station yesterday. He’s had an office in the mall at Eastwood open since June and another in Epping since July.

    By contrast, McKew’s strategists appear to only be targetting two or three ethnic groups. Her doorknocking and campaigning seems to be centred on the suburb of Eastwood only (perhaps to counter the JWH Shopfront office?) and no one seems to know where her campaign office is located (it’s somewhere in Eastwood, apparently???). Only a few months ago, Maxine was taken to a local soccer game by her friend and fellow socialist, John Watkins and was heard to remark that she was “bored” by sport. How out of touch is that?

    How much longer will the campaign run before people are reminded of Maxine’s more colourful remarks as an ABC journo? You know the ones, where she appeared to suggest that the September 11 hijackers were heroes?

  9. 353
    Simon Howson Says:
    September 17th, 2007 at 6:13 pm
    [In short, compulsory voting is, in my view, MORE democratic because everyone has to vote. It also greatly reduces fraud.]

    People think everyone has to vote, but this isn’t exactly true. Everyone registered has to attend, but it is impossible to stop someone from voting informally, or leaving the ballot blank.

    The fact people think they need to vote weakens our democracy more than making voting attendance voluntary.

    The _law_ is that you have to vote. The fact that it is possible to get away with breaking the law does not change the fact that it is the law.

  10. 418 Louise, hope you enjoy Maxine as your new local member! Might be worth your while to learn how to talk to a ‘socialist’. I’m sure Max will learn how to talk to a snob so the two of you can converse about Bennelong issues.

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