Seven News has reported that the most keenly awaited opinion poll in recent memory, tomorrow’s Newspoll, will show “a significant shift back to the Coalition” from last fortnight’s 59-41.
UPDATE: The ABC now reports the Coalition has “clawed back eight points”, hence the new headline.
UPDATE 2: Report up at the News site confirms the headline figure, without providing further detail.
UPDATE 3: Graphic here. Note the intriguing resilience of the Prime Minister’s ratings on performance approval and preferred Liberal leader.
My view on significant is 56-44 from 59-41.
Any more than a 3 point shift, I’d view as more then significant.
Worst case scenario for this poll would have to be 55-45 if that report is accurate.
I’ll tip 53-47.
Channel 7 – What? I thought the Newspoll results were only leaked to the ABC! I’m going for no improvement for the government – 61/39 2pp.
It hasn’t been 53/47 since one rogue poll by Galaxy a few months ago. I’m fairly sure a 53/47 would have “massive shift back to Coalition” written over it.
I reckon it’s just an ambit claim by a rival media outlet trying to predict the result.
If it’s accurate, 7 can claim the credit, if it’s not – no one will care because the actual poll result will be the story, not 7.
55:45?
I’ve noticed Channel 7 turning on Rudd lately. Mark Reilly their political correspondent is giving the impression of being a Howard stooge.
Does not matter what the poll says, Howard is history and no amount of spin by the GG will change that.
I’m guessing more in the region of 53/47, leaked by Newspoll to obtain maximum coverage: early commercial news 1st, then Lateline and then increase in circulation for The Oz tomorrow.
It will be interesting to see, I hope this is the statistical blimp I requested.
Mark Reilly is a Howard stooge. When the matter of Rudd’s stripclub visit came up, he said it would damage Rudd while nearly every other political commentator said it would help humanise him. Who was right? Last week, he said that in definite terms that the leadership issue of the Libs was over and they could now get on with attacking Labor, despite nearly every other political commentator saying otherwise. Also, I believe that Reilly was 1 of only 2 Australian journalists allowed to ask a question at the Howard/Bush press conference. The other one Shanahanadingdong.
SBS have apparently also commented on a shift to the Coalition
I don’t know what the margins of error are for these polls but if the change is “within” the margin of error, then no one has any reason to celebrate. Certainly not channel 7 >;-( ……… beginning to wonder about their bias, think I will begin ignoring Channel 7 news [they aren’t any different, bias wise, here in Sydney either]. In any case, Howard is going down so no worries :):):)
I hope there is a statistical blimp to the Coalition, to force Howard’s hand into calling the election quick smart. It will be seized upon as the only chance for the Coalition. Then when the campaign proper starts, It’ll be great to see the polls trend upward for Rudd again. Then, the Government will only have fear and smear, and will not be able to put off the election.
I think Mark Riley is talking out of his bum. What in the last week would give Howard a significant boost? The vote of no confidence from his party? His “team”, consisting of two guys who hate each other? Any slight lift for the coalition will be talked up to the max, I’m sure, but we’re talking about an 18 point lead for Labor – a “significant” boost won’t be enough. They’re going to need a lot more of those before they are back in the competition.
Gee ‘significant’ could mean anything. To me it would have to be something like 54/46.
If its 53/47 to Labor then things will really heat up and the government could be back in the race.
If its 55/45 – thats still a very very healthy lead to Labor and nothing to get too excited about.
I guess time will tell! 🙂
We will know in a few hours.
The lowest poll for the ALP this year has been 53-47 by Galaxy.
I would be very very surprised if ithis poll was equal or any lower than this.I cannot see any reason for a big swing away from the ALP.
Some commentators have said that it may take a couple of weeks or so for issues to wash through to the poll numbers,so the drama for the Coalition over the last week may not show until the next poll.
I still believe the ALP will win the election whenever it is.
Point of information: Channel 7 are a bunch of Liberal whores, as are Channel 10 and Channel 9.
I have heard that it’s 55-45
I’m sure it will be announced on the 7 o’clock news
I still reckon 57-43
there u go 55/45 – nothing to worry about.
55-45….. Breathes sigh of relief.
59\41 was on the optimistic side for Labor while 55\45 while taking into account last weeks Nielsen is probably on the optimistic side for the government. Business as usual in my opinion.
Why are you relieved? That’s terrible… that’s an 8 point shift. Makes me very very nervous.
Where this 55/45 come from?
ABC says 45 55 2PP
So back (or should I say still at) the status quo we’ve been at for a while now. There’ll be no way to tell if there’s any significant movement for another few polls and by then the election will be called and it’s (according to some) a whole new ball game anyway.
Preferred PM stats will be interesting reading, plus some questions about Costello you would hope.
Sorry 55/45
Chris B you really scared me for a second there 🙂
So, the obvious answer is, keep having all in brawls, and the polls will improve.
Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen, these odds won’t last long!
Yep – agreed 55-45 ABC news said the “government had clawed back 8 points”.
Not a good poll in terms of movement, but still easily election winning for the ALP.
Does the ABC actually know at this point or is it just speculating? i.e. has Newspoll leaked it earlier than usual?
That 59:41 result was completely absurd. This probably represents a truer state of affairs. Interestingly, it is in line with the Bennelong poll which shows a 7% swing to Labor.
Many of us were suspecting the 59/41 was rogue to begin with remember. Just visit ozpolitics and play that back.
If so, then this may just be no real movement at all.
Yes, big shift – but not the first. Remember – the next two will help establish the trend. The graphs for all four major polls are still very good for the ALP. I would rather those figures than what the Government has received over the past nine months.
Before all the desperation and the crowing begin, may I be the first to predict that next fortnight’s Newspoll will be 57-43 Labor’s way? I also invite speculation on why tomorrow’s figures were leaked earlier than usual – just in time for the evening news bulletins. I do not invite speculation on how The Australian will spin it tomorrow. That is obvious.
Isn’t it amazing that everyone seems disappointed that a poll could show a 7-8% swing to the ALP?
This poll is in line with the very long term 55-45 average.
This poll keeps howard at the helm.
It is good news.
‘many of us were suspecting the … was rogue’ we are all out of rogue polls for the next decade shall we say upper end of the margin of error, moving to the lower end of the margin of error for a stable 56/57 tpp number for us. If everyone is agreed ….
those of you who are worried about the “swing” to the coalition, the newspoll figures were always around 55-56/44-45 in labor’s favor over the last six months. so its likely that the 59/41 was a rogue one. I bet howard is now regretting his retirement announcement!!
It’s the APEC coverage that gave Kevin Rudd the huge temporary lift, for heaven’s sake.
This is a normal Newspoll. It’ll bounce up and down for the next six weeks. They will be around this till towards the end.
The next Nielsen will probably be exactly the same.
It’s on the same track as it has been for weeks now.
Watch the advertising when the campaign proper begins.
Right now the government is spending millions of our money
on advertising. It will be more even when the actual campaign begins.
Yep, steady as she goes…
The previous Newspoll before the 59/41 one was 55/45. If the 59/41 was on the outer edge of the margin of error, then it would make sense for this poll to be closer to the one before it. Still, it will be interesting to see what Team Rodent say about it. They jumped up and down and were on the verge of dancing in the halls parliament house when that rogue Galaxy poll came out a while back.
We all KNOW it is foolish and not valid to read anything into changes from one poll to another. This one is just another that tells the same message: it is consistent with a 56/44 2pp around the margin of error.
But, with this one, most of us can’t help ourselves.
The most important consequence of this Newspoll is that it guarantees John Howard will lead the Coalition into the election. For those that want a Labor win (and that seems to be most posters here) that gives you the best chance.
This is a good result – in line with the long term trend. In my opinion anything at or above 57 TPP is just not sustainable over a long period, but is good for a few laughs (been having a hoot the last fortnight).
I think it was Aristotle who three week back said we’re now entering the election fog, where polls bounce around like crazy. Not sure of the veracity of this view, but if it bounces around between 55 and 59 I’ll be more than happy.
Dare i say that any shift towards howard is a concern. 55-45 is a big move and if the next few shift say 53 – 47 and 52 – 48 then we are in for a close one. I still think Howard by 3 seats
OK – wishful thinking by me. 55/45 is still landslide country. What does it really mean? Is it Howard’s decision to stay on or his ‘announcement’ that he would hand over to Costello? Who cares, they’re finished. The hearse awaits.
I agree A-C, the 59\41 poll was too optimistic for Labor. Last weeks Nielsen and tonights Newspoll probably represent roughly where things stand at the moment and probably how they have stood for the last three or four months. The government has not really made any inroads into Labor’s lead.
Interesting to note that ALP people i have spoken too think they will win Kingston but still could struggle to win the election. I suppose it is better not be over confident as many on here are
Both sides would be happy with that.
As someone leaning to Labor, a 10 point, rather than 20 point lead, is good for democracy.
When (or if!) Newspoll shows Labor’s 2PP fall below 55%, I’ll view that as a significant breakthrough.