Seven News has reported that the most keenly awaited opinion poll in recent memory, tomorrow’s Newspoll, will show “a significant shift back to the Coalition” from last fortnight’s 59-41.
UPDATE: The ABC now reports the Coalition has “clawed back eight points”, hence the new headline.
UPDATE 2: Report up at the News site confirms the headline figure, without providing further detail.
UPDATE 3: Graphic here. Note the intriguing resilience of the Prime Minister’s ratings on performance approval and preferred Liberal leader.
While this is still an 8% swing to Labor and landslide territory, it is disappointing. However, one factor hasn’t been taken into account here. With the most recent leadership speculation, and with Howard and his ministers all over the TV, what I think has happened is that all of this blanket coverage has focussed all on one side and therefore created the bounce.
Whether it’s good or bad doesn’t matter, and admittedly, the show of unity – fake or otherwise – will have helped public perception, along with bucket loads of TV and newspaper space.
Once the election begins and the issues start playing out, I suspect we’ll get a return to the contrast between the two leaders and the two parties and it will be all about sound bites and party advertising. No more bullying from Parliament either where, I also concede, the government has an edge.
Expect a bounce back the other way in two weeks, especially when this government advertising blitz has to stop and the election is called.
Static
It’s all just static.
Based on the pattern and trend of the last 57 polls since March year, the best estimate of the current ALP TPP is 56%, with 95% tolerance limits for this mean of 52%-60%.
But static can stampede the herd, just the same.
Rowan, luv, Please specify whether you are talking about the liberals (left wing ferals, with the small l you used), or the Liberals (The Liberal Party of Australia).
Rowan: “a spectacular drumming of the Libs. I personally put more faith in the betting rates than the polling that shows Labor still ahead. 16 seats though, a lot to ask.”
Is “spectacular drumming” the triumph of another John Howard orchestrated Win?
thank you.
The Australian Editorial: ‘Rudd enters the danger zone
February 20, 2007
The honeymoon has been good for Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd, who must now heed the lessons of history.
IF history is any guide, federal Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd has entered the danger zone from which he will emerge as a genuine prime ministerial contender or be discarded as the latest in a long line of political skyrockets.
The headline figures in today’s Newspoll results look good for Labor but the detail contains mixed messages both for Mr Rudd and John Howard. The Prime Minister’s strategy of bringing the political debate back on to the firm ground of Iraq last week appears to have stopped the slide and rallied voter support for the Coalition. Mr Rudd, having now set the bar for popularity at a record level, must convert that voter recognition into credibility and enduring support.
The record shows this to be the hard part’.
July 17, 2007 05:36pm AEST
THE AUSTRALIAN
Rudd ‘relaxed’ about Howard’s poll comeback
Dennis Shanahan, Political editor | July 10, 2007
‘OPPOSITION Leader Kevin Rudd says he is “absolutely relaxed” about how Labor’s campaign for government is unfolding, despite a poll showing renewed support for Prime Minister John Howard.
The latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, reveals Labor’s primary support has risen slightly in the past three weeks and its strong two-party-preferred lead is unchanged.
But the political support for Labor remains solid and the party’s two-party-preferred advantage of 56 per cent to 44 per cent – based on preferences flows at the 2004 election – has not changed in the past three weeks’.
“Watch the government come out and try to ramp up the attacks on Rudd tomorrow”
I hope so Greg, it’s worked like a beauty so far.
General Wenck has arrived! The Russian encirclement has been broken… perhaps there may still be some hope for those trapped in das bunker!
I am so surprised though considering all the bad press about the Howard hand over and Labor’s attacks on Howard as a lame duck…the lefties were all predicting 62/38 hmmm while it could be rogue ill take 55-45 than 59-41 any day…
We shall have to sit tight and wait for the next poll before we can claim the move is on…General Wenck is still 10 kilometers away……but there may yet be salvation for the Coalition and die ‘fuhrer/leader’.
May I dare make the suggestion that people actually would prefer Costello over Howard??
I believe Labor tried this “Costello might be PM” line last time and it was a dismal failure, because I think people want to see the back of Howard. Labor is doing itself a major disservice by wasting efforts with the Costello PM scare campaign, they should focus on the issues and keep setting the agenda.
People in the Labor campaign headquarters seem to have a short memory if they persist with this Costello PM crp.
The last Newspoll was over-hyped for Labor, this one will be over-hyped for the Libs. That’s just politics. There is far too much hyping of each poll, we all know that, but we all go on doing it. The long-term trend is of course far more important, and that trend is that Labor’s 2PV has been fluctuating around an average of 55 or 56% since April. I’ll settle for that. If this poll temps the Libs to dissolve now and fight the election under Howard’s leadership, Labor will be very happy.
{(2) believes in atmospherics/momentum in politics will be worried right about now.}
I think the only ones worried about momentum would be the Libs. They haven’t had any since about March last year.
Labor have had all the momentum going it’s way since then and with the vote about as locked in as it’s possible to get, are well placed to send Howard off to a well undeserved retirement.
hey this poll will pull those waverers, who want Howard out but are not too sure about labor, into hardening their vote, the thought of Howard making a comeback just might frighten them, we’ve had a lot of government advertising these last four days as well –and the business ads, hmmm time for the union ads to be broken out again i think, i’m sure Rudd will get another 1% boost next newspoll.
‘Scuse me…left this out.
‘The country-fair diet has boosted Mr Rudd’s personal satisfaction rating, which is up another eight points to 68per cent, the highest level recorded by Newspoll for a federal Opposition leader in more than 21 years. In terms of primary support, Labor now has a five-point lead over the Coalition at 46 to 41 per cent. On a two-party-preferred basis Labor remains well ahead on 54 per cent to the Coalition’s 46 per cent and Mr Rudd has raced past Mr Howard in terms of who would make the better prime minister, rising eight points to 47 per cent against 37 per cent for Mr Howard’.
Excerpt, the Australian. Rudd enters the danger zone.
#97, Adam, the Nexus poll was discussed in the previous blog.
http://www.nexusresearch.com.au/
I think the latest poll has some significance, and may well reflect the public being pleased that the Libs have at least reach some consensus on the leadership issue. Though I like to avoid cliches like the plague, it is true that disunity is death, and Costello has started playing the team game. He will perform strongly in the election campaign (heartened, no doubt, by the polls from Bennelong).
It will be interesting to see whether Howard uses the poll to call an election. While one poll doesn’t mean a huge amount in itself, it will give the coalition a lot of heart, and they’ll go into the campaign firing on all cylinders, if the campaign begins this week.
If Howard waits, in order to suck as much value as possible from the tit of taxpayer-funded advertising, he could lose out if the next poll goes backwards for him.
With the indulgence of the honourable speaker…a few more points…
1. To say the government has “clawed back” eight points is technically correct, I suppose, as Labor previously had an 18-point lead, and now has a 10-point lead. But the poll result should really be described as a “four per cent swing”. It only takes four per cent of voters to change their minds, to create an eight per cent “clawback”.
2. Labor now needs to trot out some policies, and get debate going again on issues like interest rates, rents, WorkChoices, hospitals and education. As someone else mentioned earlier, the leadership issue doesn’t affect the punters directly, in their day-to-day-lives.
3. And Rupert…I dunno whether you’re old enough to remember, and to have been there (as I was), but Rex Jackson came from the LEFT wing of the NSW ALP. And while his demise was spectacular, I don’t think you can remotely make any comparisons with any ALP politicians in the Rudd team. In fact, if my memory serves me correctly, Rex Jackson was never a union official. He worked for the railways then ran a printing business. So he was a BUSINESSMAN, not a UNIONIST. You need to watch those political parties run by bosses, not just union bosses. Rex also had a gambling addiction. I’m not aware that gambling addiction is the prerogative of any particular political party.
I went into the shop at Berrima Jail once, to inspect the handicrafts made by prisoners. Rex made some nice wooden clocks. I didn’t buy any, though.
I’m very pleased to see that most commenters here this evening have seen the 55-45 result in context. As I pointed out last Friday, it is worthwhile looking at the run of Newspoll 2pp results for Labor over the year to date: 55, 56, 54, 57, 61, 57, 59, 57, 59, 57, 55, 60, 56, 55, 56, 55, 59 & now 55. There was a previous example of a rise of 4 points followed immediately by a drop of 4, and also a rise of 5 points immediately followed by a drop of 4. The other very noticeable thing is the tendency for the results to oscillate up and down in successive polls. As I observed on Friday, the more remarkable thing would have been if there was not a drop in this poll.
Sit back and watch the very same foolish MSM journos who said Howard’s leadership was doomed by the last Newspoll now pronounce that he is clawing his way back into election contention, Libs did well to stick with his experience etc etc ad nauseum.
As others have said, there have been no dramatic events in recent days to cause massive changes in voting intention. Wait for the next polls – perhaps a Morgan this Friday and maybe another Galaxy soon, and also watch the multi-poll averages and trend lines. Oh, and as Kina said at #68, watch the Government alternatively panic and relax with each poll.
“Rudd’s hopes in tatters – lead only 55-45 “. Yeah right …
While Howard might be rejoicing in the latest Newspoll [but I doubt it apart from it saving his job] the knee weakening poll is the Nexus mentioned a few time before. No doubt their internal polling as well as Labor is giving a story closer to this one.
“A Nexus poll of 600 people in Sydney and Melbourne today found Labor’s primary vote at 51 per cent and the Liberals at 36 per cent..â€
Rudd is doing a great job in sucking the Coalition’s oxygen, they simply are left having to sledge him which has yet to prove that effective if at all this year.
Will Howard call an early election now?
Yes but the problem for the journos, especially News Corp ones, is that they will have to find a reason why this shift has happened, or discredit the previous one. It will be difficult to do either.
I think this is the outlier, I don’t see why the last Newspoll was. It fitted with what was happening and similar polls at the time.
Antonio, yes, if you can actually correctly pick the faction of Rex Jackson, without googling, as I have not done, then you are probably older than myself.
I still think it is delightful that you now attempt to distance this gaoled ALP criminal from Kevin Cruddy, two clowns from the ALP.
My question now becomes, how may ALP left-wingers (from either of the four left-wing factions that I have personally met), are Shadow Ministers under Cruddy, who would spectacularly (NSW ALP-Right style) undo Cruddy (Still a country bumpkin from outback QLD – almost like Pauline Hanson)?
Kina 600 people doesnt count for squat whats the error rate like 5% or 6% why do people take polls with such a low sample size so seriously…
Howard wont call it now he wants and needs this week to pump Rudd in Parliament…soon the public will tire of Rudd’s foe campaign and his bleatings about when the election will be called…
Galaxy should be out soon…the last won was not good for the Government perhaps if that shows signs of coming back Howard may go…he wont go when he’s still 10 points down.
Yes Canberra boy that was a very good pick up last Friday I wonder what patten there are with other polls.
Over all this is about the 50th poll with a 10 point plus lead to the ALP, as we enter time on in the third quarter.
The secret to the ALP winning this election is it must remain positive and must focus on its policies and just niggle the Govt here or there without getting into an overly negative campaign.
ABC says:
Today’s Newspoll in The Australian newspaper shows the Coalition improving four points on Labor on a two-party preferred basis, although it still trails 43 points to 57.
Labor leader Kevin Rudd has dropped one point as preferred prime minister, but still leads John Howard by 10 points.
Mr Howard has regained two points to finish at 38 to 48.
One news report says 55:45 but the other report says as above.
Where are sub editors when you need them
Rupert, darling,
I used the abbreviation lib to refer to the Liberals.
Looking back on that posting it does read like I’m recommending the Liberal front bench form a percussive group though. It should have read a drumming of the Liberals by Labor.
Sorry for the above – follwoed the wrong link on the ABC 55-45 it is.
It was entertaining but it was a little extreme, two in a row was asking for a bit much; anyway there needs to be a trigger to get the real show under way; it is better for the country if Howard gets voted out; another bad result and the Liberals may have finally done the dead and were is the fun in that.
Rowan, you should enjoy the beat of a new drum.
What do you like about Costello, that you cannot see in Howard?
or
What do you see in Cruddy that you cannot see in either of Howard or Costello?
fanx
faux, Glen, faux – f a u x. It’s French. Get some lessons from Monsieur Downer.
A danger for Howard is if these poll variations are (temporarily) hiding a further trend toward Labor.
Glen says …he wont go when he’s still 10 points down.
There is a constitution to be observed Glen. 10 or 20 points down or not, an election needs to called regardless of what Howard may wish for.
I think a key consideration for Howard calling an election will be keeping the party together.
This is a great result for the ALP. If it had been 60+ that would have been the end of johnny. Now, they’ll think they have a chance, and it’ll be johnny leading em to the brink.
The other thing this will allow, is the announcement of the election. With a ‘turn-around’, this will be the point at which they fell the HAVE to call it.
We’re goin to the polls boys and girls.
youve got to say that its a disappointing result for Labor, but as for the whole year, you cant rely on the one poll for anything
the good thing for Labor is that Howard stays…
Somebody above mentioned the sorry tale of Rex Jackson and tried to tie it into the unreadiness of Rudd and the ALP team to govern.
However to draw an even longer bow, one should recall that John Howard was a Liberal party apparatchik during the corrupt regime of Robin Askin. I wonder if honest little John ever took a peek into the brown paper bags in Robin’s office when he was in there for briefings during his failed run for Drummoyne in 1967.
Another notorious non-Labor crim was the murderer Tom Ley.
To my personal knowledge Davis Hughes a Liberal minister should have gone to gaol for his activities with among others Abe Saffron.
Im almost in stitches watching you lot analyse this poll. You have come up with quite a number of theories except maybe the most obvious one. Did it occur to anyone that maybe this poll is different because they interviewed a different group of people than they did in the previous poll?
I should have said that Hughes, who was a country member. represented the County Party interest and was a minister in the Liberal-Country Party coalition for seven years.
Albert… Davis Hughes… wasn’t he the Works Minister who got up Joern Utzon’s nose bigtime?
The Nexus Press Release is here:
Labor drawing support from both sides
http://www.nexusresearch.com.au/SeptVoting.html
AND this interesting facility lets you choose parameters and make tables & charts using their poll data:
http://www.nexusresearch.com.au/Reports/7130xcp1.htm
Can I make the obvious comment that in lieu of the other three polls this one could well be a rogue
Crispy,
The very same except that it was Utzon who irritated Hughes and the other philistines in the Askin government.
Because of the venality of those men we are left with a less than optimum performance space.
What a shame of our ministers during today questions time?
Instead of attacking the opposition, they should spend more time to produce policies to solve the housing affordability, health, and skill shortage.
Really sad to see these guys wil be re-elected in next election again.
Good. Now we will get to see Howard on election night. Thought it mightn’t happen for a few days there. Actually started to feel a bit disappointed, but then gave myself a good talking to.
My God, these results are disaterous for Rudd. He now leads by a measly 10 points TPP. By the next Newspoll, these results will be reversed in favour of Howard. Might as well wrap the show up folks, cos the Coalition’s got this one in the bag. Howard is now bound to romp it home on election day. Right?
Right on the limit of the MOE. Trend will remain as is. Good result for KR. Remember the old saying “no such thing as bad publicity” and JWH has been all over the news since the leadership became the issue. JG should agree, not much of a sympathy vote.
Gee Rupert, if I weren’t such a country bumpkin I’d think your comment that Rudd is ‘still a country bumpkin from outback QLD – almost like Pauline Hanson’ was a failed attempt at humour straight from the Wit and Wisdom of Alexander Downer.
Leave your address and I’ll send you a map of Brisbane and environs, and few political biographies.
Hmm, just saw a Govt Climate Clever ad during the Govt Sponsored Border Security, and unofficial propaganda piece disguised as a reality show where the majority of “passengers are of non-english speaking backgrounds.
Kina,
“Will Howard call an early election now?”
The election is already late. If he called it right now, it would be on October 27th, which is about three weeks past the end of his three year term. Howard is in standing on the front verandah, looking for the Tampa to come over the horizon mode and has been for years.
Likely headlines in ‘The Australian’ tomorrow:
‘Howard Powers Back’
‘Rudd Sliding Backwards’
‘No Lift from Labor Launch’
‘Howard No Writeoff’
The Nexus poll was a phone poll. I should know they rang me.
It was mid-afternoon and Captain Hamster awoke from a surprisingly restful sleep. he had just completed a brisk walk around midships in his yellow pantaloons when the news came that the newpole had arrived.
The crew had inspected the damage to the old mast after the storm and had all got behind it to try to spin it around a bit but realised that it was beyond salvage. The newpole was a bit shorter than they had all hoped but just seeing it there, gleaming, in the sun was all it took to raise their spirits. So after frisking for daggers, Captain Hamster gave Petulant Pete a hug and even Peter managed a smirk (mind you, he seemed to have a never-ending supply).
On the port side, the black ship that had been following their every move had come alongside. The Jolly Rudder was fluttering ominously in the warm onshore breeze and the crew of Hamster’s ship took a closer look at the menacing crew…
Captain Rudder was looking fidgety on the bridge and heat from the sun bearing down overhead had caused a bead of sweat to run awkwardly down his nose, dripping onto the wheel, his mousy, overlong fringe dangling bookishly over his expansive forehead. All eyes were on him.
There was no champagne now, no hollow chuckle, not even a vague homily about fairness left. The crew had secretly doubted his strength of leadership when unable to control Bleatty the Sorry with his Quixotic aspirations on the Queen’s own Land so now, they watched to see what their charismatic leader would do.
“Well, yes. Ah. If you’ll excuse my rather uncharacteristically ribald idiom,
STUFF THE BUGGERS! LOAD THE CANNONS FIRST MATE!!â€. A nervous roar rang out and Droll Jack Swan nearly tripped over his feet to give the order. In a frenzy of activity, there were shouts, much stuffing of gunpowder and the satisfying “clunk†of loading cannons. Each sailor with a wild, nervous grin at this unexpected pre-emptive strike..
The crew on the ship adjacent seemed not to notice the commotion and were listening instead to Petulant Pete extolling the virtues of their famous Captain, though they seemed to be strained to hear him, his teeth were gritted so intensely. Overhead a flash of black sailed past and an almighty “BOOOOOOM†rang out across the silence.
Does anyone know anything else about the Nexus poll? For example what the last one was? How good it is as a guide?