Seven News has reported that the most keenly awaited opinion poll in recent memory, tomorrow’s Newspoll, will show “a significant shift back to the Coalition” from last fortnight’s 59-41.
UPDATE: The ABC now reports the Coalition has “clawed back eight points”, hence the new headline.
UPDATE 2: Report up at the News site confirms the headline figure, without providing further detail.
UPDATE 3: Graphic here. Note the intriguing resilience of the Prime Minister’s ratings on performance approval and preferred Liberal leader.
Bill Weller: “Dare i say that any shift towards howard is a concern. 55-45 is a big move and if the next few shift say 53 – 47 and 52 – 48 then we are in for a close one. I still think Howard by 3 seats”
A shift towards Howard is only a concern if it is actually a shift and not a poll correction. A 55-45 poll would only bring the polls back into line to just before the 59-41 which a lot of people thought was an abberation.
48 Bill Weller the Laborites I talk too have similar fears – at least the ones who haven’t been obsessively studying the polls. They dare not hope, they’ve been scarred by previous elections etc. And that’s how I’ve felt too. But I’ve been converted to optimism by the lovely graphs at OzPol, and Aristotle’s analysis, and of course Possum’s ongoing narrative. Newspoll is varying around a normal curve, and the ship is steady. Labor holds the cards. Optimism can trump our nerves.
The 59-41 result was NOT a complete rogue; it was in line with the 4-poll average of 58%. This one looks like a rogue at the moment, and will await other polls to confirm. You can see aggregate polling for Sept at OzPolitics.
If there is a swing back, it’s probably due to a Canberra Beltway effect; people don’t care very much about things that don’t affect them, and the Lib leadership didn’t affect them. Additionally, perhaps Labor voters like us on this blog might have lied to ensure Howard remains PM until polling day.
This is an excellent result: it will give the Coalition false hope and it will make Laborites remember that they have to keep working for victory.
An 8 point shift in successive polls, especially given the government’s troubles over the last couple of weeks, needs some explaining. Be interesting to see what Newspoll say about it.
I agree with those who say the last Newspoll was at the upper edge and this one is just back to business as usual. Once again, I don’t think either side can read much into this.
Shanahan will say the poll is wrong since it doesn’t count mobile-only households.
Confirmation:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22434194-29277,00.html
55-45 sounds more realistic than 59-41 from last time. That still forecasts a landslide win for the ALP. I knew 59-41 was too good to be true! Mind you the last time there was talk of the Liberal leadership (in mid-2006) the Coalition got a (temporary) poll bounce.
I’m going to ban myself from this blogsite for a few days whilst the likes of Glen and Steven Kaye and others go to town on this poll IF that is what the Newspoll says: not to mention anything Howard et al have to say about one ‘good’ {?} poll in 9 months.
The good news for Labor from this is that Howard will be cemented in as leader and end the speculation so he can walk the plank come November and we can all see the back of him.
Anything above 53-47 between now and poll day will keep a smile on my face. I just hope it dosen’t drop to beyond 55-45 until very close to election day.
So it’s back to 55/45. Just remember this is before the proper campaign and before the goverment starts throwing around the 17.3 billion dollars it has to spend. It’s going to be close and all the crowing and triumphalsim on this blog is still premature.
I still won’t believe the rodent is gone until I see him concede on election night. I’m hoping and praying he does go, but he just can’t be written off so easily.
“Call the election now” could have the most accurate forecast, a Coalition win by about 7 seats.
BTW, did you see the guy on Channel 7 “Sunrise” this morning quoting my post from a couple of days ago about Rex Jackson, the NSW ALP Right Prisons Minister, who went to gaol for accepting bribes for the early release of prisoners?
Make no mistake, there are MANY current Federal Shadow Ministers from the infamous ALP NSW Right, and an officious “wet behind the ears” former public servant from country bumpkin QLD, like Cruddy, would have absolutely no hope of keeping his government clean and honest, beyond the clutches of those who play absolutely for absolute power, and their own personal financial gain.
55-45 this result is Newspoll being Newspoll, all year Newspoll has been up and down but always with the ALP in the mid to hight 50s.
This brings the polling average back to 57%. while a 59-41 would make interesting viewing on Election night I just can’t see it happening 55-45 is a different story.
I suspect Howard will call the Election by end of month for he has nothing to lose.
I suspect the other aspect to this poll is what was reported over the weekend about both major parties picking up swings towards the ALP but these swings being somewhat patchy.
Why does “clawed back eight points†mean 55-45?
Could it mean 51-49?
And may I remind readers who used US Style cold-calling pre-recorded messages at the LAST election ?
[LABOR leader Kevin Rudd was today slammed as a liar and a phony who needs a US-style teleprompter to deliver his speeches.
With a crucial opinion poll tomorrow believed to show support returning to the Government for the first time in months, Prime Minister John Howard accused Mr Rudd of being all spin and no substance.
In a concerted question time attack, Mr Howard dismissed Labor’s faux campaign launch last weekend while senior ministers criticised the number of committees and inquiries Mr Rudd has announced and the number of former union officials on the opposition benches.
Mr Howard ignored Labor calls to announce the election date and ridiculed Mr Rudd for holding a “pseudo-American, pseudo-ersatz” campaign launch last Saturday.
“There he was, complete with – what do you call them – teleprompters or rear vision mirrors, those things that have your words written on them,” Mr Howard told parliament.
“I thought to myself ‘well here is American politics arrived in Australia big time’.
“I thought I was the bloke who was too close to the Americans. You could have fooled me.” ]
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22433663-5005361,00.html
Pot Meet Kettle
John Howard is on the cutting edge of technology… Kevin Rudd was reading from ‘rear view mirrors’. Yes John…
” With a crucial opinion poll tomorrow believed to show support returning to the Government for the first time in months”
That of course is an inaccurate statement. As someone else pointed out the Newspoll first reported on 21st of August showed 55\45 and that was less than a month ago.
ive said this before but why do the people think on here automaticatly take 3 points off labour for moe. why cannot the moe be added onto labours vote? am i silly can it not move either way?
A cynic would say that every time Howard has needed a poll to save his position one has come along.
Well this would be back to the usual track. Morgans at around 59/60 with Newspolls at around 55/56. Basically nothings changed for the Govt for most of the year despite all their tricks and best efforts.
There are have been 7 Newspolls since June none below 55/56 and only one higher. So the 59 was simply MOE coming in to play.
I don’t particularly believe in sudden temporary boosts as though 100,000 voters collectivley changed their mind from one week to the next. Any boost Rudd got from APEC would likely to be permanent.
From APEC onwards it has been a disaster for Howard and positive for Rudd. If anything things should be getting firmer for Rudd and probably increasing. AND really these past few days the Govt and Howard have looked like lost dead ducks. The internal polling of Labor seems to indicate this and the tactic of the Govt adopting firewall tactics shows how bad it really is.
My feeling is that Labor will probably pick up another 1% by the next Newspoll – 56/57
It is strange that the Media treat the polls as absolutes and never talk about MOE or outliers.
I made a comments some days ago that the funniest thing would be polls going up and down 3/4% with the Govt panicing and relaxing each time like some Simpson’s episode.
Howard is safe for another week – but what if we get a 60/40 next week.
Another great result for the ALP. I expect no change in this consistent picture. Howard is rooted.
Call the election Rodent. There’s nothing you can do now. Only delaying the inevitable.
I note in America they all way highlight the MoE
HA !! An interesting aspect of all this early leaking is that everyone but News limited papers can report it ( I just checked News.com & The OZ say nothing ) seems from their point of view to be cutting their nose off to spite their craggy 70 +++ year old face
Still reckon the actual number is 57-43, and all of the polls are just thrashing around that number.
I rarely see commercial tv, thus neither the political ads. Are anti work choice ads still rolling?
The press gallery’s breathless reporting of these polls is flaky even by their usual boneheaded standards. The Coalition has not “clawed back” anything. The last Newspoll was an outlier in a consistent trend that has put Labor ahead by about 10-12 percentage points on a 2PP basis. This is more in line with the AC Nielsen poll of last Monday.
But rest assured, the GG will make a meal of this, with the usual Howard sycophants praising the strategic brilliance of Howard’s pseudo baton pass to Costello in neutralising the leadership issue.
As to that shameless dork on Channel Seven, Mark Riley, he is just another of those now commonplace mediocre careerists in Australian political journalism who cravenly do the bidding of the Howard machine in a desperate attempt to attach themselves to the list of those on the inside information drip.
The thing is can the negative wc ads beat people’s remotes?
BROKEN CLAWS
With a normalisation of the polling figures @ this RATE, we will witness the catty furrball munchers coughing and choking on Cruddy.
Rather than the mandegyptian ferals that Cruddy uses to scratch the eyes out of dopey right-wing ALP fans, we now see the Big Cat Liberals and Nationals returning to centre stage.
The current historical Lions of the Australian Political stage, the Liberal Party of Australia, will swat away the extreme left-wing ferals easily, but the “cat” Cruddy pretender will definitely need a few more weeks.
A 5 to 6 week campaign, much longer than 33 days (Costello is not in the inner inner loop), and the untested Cruddy will struggle to appear in the media as anything more than regurgitated cat vomit.
(Apologies for Paul Keating speak.)
Excellent news. Howard stays rotting at the helm so we can vote him out!
#72 Agreed Pi. The polls have been averaging 57-43 all year. 59-41 is at the upper end of the MoE, and 55-45 is at the lower end of the MoE. Its as simple as that.
I feel quite let down by the early release of the Newspoll figures.
I certainly agree that it’s more than likely to be an outlier but will certainly give the media something to run on for a day or two.
{PUBLIC support appears to be swinging back behind Prime Minister John Howard with an eight-point recovery for the Coalition in tomorrow’s key Newspoll.
The poll, to be published in The Australian, shows Labor still heading for an election win, leading the Government 55 per cent to 45 on a two-party preferred basis.
But Labor’s support has dropped four points and the Coalition’s has risen by the same amount from the last Newspoll a fortnight ago, when the opposition had an 18-point lead. }
Didn’t take long. This one on line by 7.30pm.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22434194-29277,00.html
This sure keeps one on the edge of their seat (figuratively speaking). Let’s hope this gives Labor the incentive to work just that bit harder and smarter.
Only one of the last seven news polls since mid June has deviated from the two party preferred range of 45-55 to 44-56 and that was the one taken two weeks ago, which showed 41- 59. an obvious rogue poll.
Any talk of a swing back to the government is just wishful thinking.
This is a great result – locks Howard in. Yes, 55-45 is a disastrous result for the ALP as if it is carried thru to election night they have only achieved an 8% swing! ALP justs has to keep focusing and reinforcing the messages they have been all year.
PS : Downers press conference was pitiful. The man has well and truly lost it.
After refusing to believe the polls of (many) recent months, I safely predict the Oz and fellow travellers (including some posting to this site – you know who you are) will trumpet the wisdom of this latest iteration from Newspoll. Perhaps to be spun as the electorate tiring of its “collective joke” and now preparing to welcome back J1 and J2?
This is clearly going to be run by the Howard choirboys BIG time. Anyone who (1) wants Howard to lose and (2) believes in atmospherics/momentum in politics will be worried right about now.
This newspoll is 55/45. The last newspoll was 59/41. The average of the last two newspolls is 57/43. The last Galaxy was, yes, 57/43. And the last AC Nielsen, you guessed it, 57/43.
57/43 read and weep Rupert.
I would be very happy with 55% on election night – that would represent (with a consistent swing) about 95 seats and a comprehensive victory.
As many others have said, this poll is actually good for Labor because it serves to shake everyone up and remind them that it isn’t in the bag yet. On the other hand, it could give the Libs a false sense of security and we all know what they get up to when they are in full arrogance mode – we also know that the public at large hate it.
So, bring it on, I say. The more polls like this, the better. After all, there is only SO long he can hold off calling an election…
It will be amusing if the hidden hand genius of the bettting markets follows this poll result as blindly as it did the previous Newspoll.
Just watched the 7:30 Report (Michael Brissenden) and the lack of context about this poll, including MOE, is woeful, he didn’t once mention that the last poll was an upper limit and this one is just back to average over the last few months. It was presented as an indisputable major comeback for the government.
Sigh.
And Alexander Downer’s comments about Rudd et al, were about as pathetic and disingenuous as it gets. If any more evidence were needed about his smug, born-to-rule mentality, this was the clincher.
We obviously have weeks of taxpayer funded advertising in front of us yet. Possums graphs showed how the ad’s have had no effect on labours polling figures this time around, so the solution is to keep them running until they do. What’s another 4 weeks of ad’s? There are more worstchoices ad’s ready to go and they will keep pumping them out until they get some results. If they don’t close the gap, that’s when it will get interesting.
I can’t see the result on the newspoll website yet. Where is this coming from ?
55-45 is good news for Labor. I assume the ‘8-point turnaround’ is referring to the gap -going from 18 to 10 points – ALP actually drops 4, Lib-NP gains 4.
The best news is that it kills off an attempt at a coup on Howard. I believe Costello’s claim that he wouldn’t launch a challenge. However, that wouldn’t rule out a party-room vote against Howard allowing Costello to take it in a ‘no-challenge’ move.
Not that the ‘fresh face’ look would work for long. Costello’s got too much baggage as Treasurer over this whole reign.
Howard is their ‘least worst’ option. He’s a cunning streetfighter prepared to do anything, albeit he’s become a lot more predictable since the crash of Workchoices. His wedge attempts have got nowhere, even the uninterested punters are seeing through them.
At the same time he’s Labor’s best asset. He’s tarnished, he’s the past. It’s hard to see how he’ll connect. It’s little wonder the Libs are already withdrawing his pic from campaign material.
Let’s hope he calls the election before the reality of the duumvirate mess seeps through. Otherwise voter wrath panic might still set in.
The best news is that Howard will have to face the music on election night, and probably join Stanley Bruce in history.
Two thoughts. This poll was taken after the reality of the coming election was enforced by the problems with the liberals. As such this shows a significant problem for the liberals, despite the claw back.
The second is the 3% sampling error. We still may be looking at a spectacular drumming of the Libs. I personally put more faith in the betting rates than the polling that shows Labor still ahead. 16 seats though, a lot to ask.
Mark at Larvatus Prodeo relays a source that claims Anthony Green will be on Lateline to discuss developments.
Rowan,
Just for the record: to gain 16 seats is not a lot to ask.
I’m not sure. But now that I think about it, ABC may have got the poll information from Channel 7. Do we know where Seven got it from? Because Seven does have a problem getting thing right. Maybe see what Lateline says.
Anyone who believed those 59/41 polls from Galaxy and Newspoll a couple of weeks ago was deluding themselves. Watch the Government come out and try to ramp up the attacks on Rudd tomorrow. “All spin and no substance” will get a work out. They’ll try to get momentum from this. Election to be called at the end of next week for November 3.
The significance of this poll is that it pulls back from the point where Costello could challenge for leadership before the election.
UNtil this result, the dual leadership looked a bit dodgy
And, Trevor in #81 above, I’m a liberal voter and I wish, I just wish Downer would shut up for a while. I cringe everytime he overplays it like he did tonight
IF there is anyone in the party who needs to be given the tap…….
I don’t see how a 55/45 result is possible considering the damage that must have been caused bu last weeks leadership crisis. Even if the original 59/41 was an outlier and 55/45 was the norm shouldn’t there at least been some fallout from the meltdown?
From Maria Hawthorne’s story at the Australian website on the Newspoll (which is tripe – what is this “8 point shift”?)
“A Nexus poll of 600 people in Sydney and Melbourne today found Labor’s primary vote at 51 per cent and the Liberals at 36 per cent – a virtual reversal of a similar poll taken before the 2004 election where the results were 48-37 to the Liberals.”
Who is Nexus?
Chris,
16 seats is 16 electorates, 16x 120’000-160’000 (or more) people to convince to vote for Labor. Please remember the 1998 election. Beazley won the popular vote but not the actual election (didn’t get the seats).
Don’t misunderstand me. It is achievable and I hope it happens, will work for it to happen. But don’t underestimate the Liberals or the local Liberal constituency.
I still remember a mate of mine from 1996 coming into uni sporting a black eye after manning a booth against the libs.