• Michael Bachelard of The Age reports the blue-ribbon Melbourne seats of Kooyong (9.8 per cent) and Goldstein (10.0 per cent) are in danger of falling “because John Howard has refused to move aside”. This is according to a “senior Liberal figure” who desribes the Prime Minister’s new position on the leadership as a “catastrophe” driven by “selfishness”, and believes “next Tuesday’s Newspoll should be a catalyst for a change”. Elsewhere in Victoria, Deakin (5.0 per cent), McMillan (5.0 per cent), Corangamite (5.3 per cent), La Trobe (5.8 per cent) and McEwen (6.4 per cent) are rated “almost certain to go”, while Dunkley (9.4 per cent) and
Flinders (11.1 per cent) are “also under pressure”.
• Simon Benson of the Daily Telegraph reports that Labor polling in 10 New South Wales marginals pointed to swings of between 8 and 12 per cent, which was deemed so implausible it was redone – “only to return the same results”. The report also confirms no effort will be made to win seats from Labor, and says the Liberals have “started polling the blue-ribbon seat of North Sydney because of fears Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey could fall” (although similar noises could be heard during the 2004 campaign).
• Steve Lewis of The Australian reckons the Prime Minister’s announcement that he will hand over the reins to Peter Costello in an increasingly hypothetical next term of government amounts to him “sacrificing his own seat to save the Coalition”, since it will enable Maxine McKew to point to the certainty of a mid-term by-election. Significantly, the Prime Minister is now promising to serve a full term as member for Bennelong if the government is returned.
• Michael McKenna of The Australian reports that Moreton MP Gary Hardgrave “appears to have misled federal parliament” over the AFP’s inquiries into the “phantom staffer” and “printgate” affairs. An AFP spokesman is quoted saying a formal interview was requested with Hardgrave, which appears at odds with his statement in parliament on August 7: “I have not even been required for an interview by the AFP in the five-and-a-half months since this matter began”.
• Focus group sessions conducted by the Sydney Morning Herald, as reported by Peter Hartcher and Annabel Crabb, provide many pages of grim reading for the government and its supporters.
• Malcolm Mackerras tells the Canberra Times that the Greens’ Senate candidate in the ACT, former MLA Kerrie Tucker, is a “50-50” chance to lead the party to an unprecedented Senate win at the expense of Liberal incumbent Gary Humphries.
• Venturing slightly off topic, Sean Parnell of The Australian reports from Queensland that “senior conservatives fear Anna Bligh will use a state electoral redistribution late next year as the trigger for an early election, consigning an ill-prepared Coalition to another three years in Opposition”.
Given what’s happened this week, Galaxy could certainly want to scoop Newspoll, like they did after the Budget. I doubt that the Oz would be at all amused if that happened.
Sympathy doesn’t come into voters’ decisions in the case of party ructions. Voters will be sympathetic if a pollie’s spouse or child dies, but definitely not sympathetic if the pollie’s troubles are of the pollie’s own making. The ALP split didn’t get any sympathy votes.
It’s always illuminting to watch what Paul Kelly says on Insiders during a critical Newspoll weekend (as this one is).
I have long assumed that with his much vaunted position of “editor At Large” for the GG, Kelly is eligible to receive mid-polling period updates from the bean counters at Newspoll. After all, as the GG’s editorialist once famously said of Newspoll, “We know all about Newspoll because we own it.” Also, being able to “predict” what the polls will say make you look sage. And Kelly fancies himself as a sage.
Today Kelly was running the possibility of a result in the 60s for Labor’s 2PP on Tuesday.
We know Sunday is the day Newspoll cleans up the demographics, applying filters to respondents to get the numbers right for each category (men, women, over-40s etc.). If, as I suspect, the numbers are generally in, but there’s some residual doubt, then Kelly would incur little risk in speculating about a 60-ish result. It might be anything from 58 up to 61 (we’ve already had one of those, during the “honeymoon” period), or even 62.
Whatever it finally is, Kelly seemed to be telling us the Co-Prime Minister scam wasn’t working and that we should expect an improvement for Labor, not a “sympathy” swing for the Coalition.
My other pet theory regards Bennelong as a catalyst seat for “soft” Labor voters. This theory says that the more the electorate at large accepts Bennelong is lost the less likely the “soft” Labor voters out there in the general electorate are to go back to the Coalition at the last moment. If the Headquarters bunker is stormed and all those within are slaughtered – including the King – what’s the point of continuing the fight? Better to stick with the new regime and make the transition definite.
Again, on Insiders today there was talk of Bennelong falling. Howard spent a good part fo the day in Carlingford (very Chinese) trying to sandbag his Headquarters redoubt while Rudd was making major policy announcements in Penrith. Howard’s announcement a day or so ago (and isn’t a day a long time in politics lately?) that he would stay in Bennelong only if the Coalition won the election was weasel-wording at its worst (and as weasel worders go, Howard is the best).
The man can’t lie straight in bed. He can’t put anything directly to the people, or even his own party. There’s always an “out”. And the “out” is always diametrically opposed to whatever it was he was originally trying to con us into believing in the first place. e weren’t going to war in Iraq the night before we went to war. Overnight the conditions changed. No GST. Never ever. A year later we had one in the making. Staying until his party doesn’t want him and then when it says it doesn’t want him, he’s not going anyway. There are many and numerous examples of Howard’s mendacity. Even Jeanette had to admit his “non-core” promise modus operandi.
So, the voters of Bennelong will hear him loud and clear: more bullshit from the Prime Minister who mentions his party, his family and his self-belief in knowing he’s best suited for the top job, but never mentions the elephant in the corner… the Australian people and the people of his electorate… as having a meaningful say.
Once the Bennelong voters lock in to this latest lie the polls will go south for Howard in his opwn seat. Once they do this, and are published, the waverers and “soft” Labor voters out there in the general electorate will realise it’s game-over and stick with their inclination to try Labor… to make for a swift, clean and most of all, comprehensive routing of the Liberals.
It’s their turn in the wilderness.
Agree with Lord D @ 51 – definitely no sympathy vote.
Polls in next couple of days will tell a big part of the story, and I predict the media will spin the results as follows:
– ALP 2PP 61+ will lead to lots of stories about panic/rout, etc.
– ALP 2PP 56-60 – status quo, Howard under pressure, Labor well on course
– ALP 2PP 54-55 – interesting development – can Howard/Costello keep coming back?
– ALP 2PP less than that (which seems very unlikely) – pressure now on Labor for the first time since the NT intervention
Not saying this is what the stats really mean, just that this is what the press will get out of them.
Agree with Fulvio. Please Gusface, attack Joe Hockey for his policies, no need to bring his Lebanese background into the discussion.
Fulvio I agree #50.
Howard Hater the only thing that could save the rodent now is if they rubbed Rudd out. There are some serious right wing loonies out there, god forbid, but you never know!
Red Wombat, I disagree. The only reason for the Iraq war was oil. What, they wanted to free the Iraqi people out of the generosity of their heart regardless of US lives and more importantly billions of dollars, LOL.
AJ, I’m glad Hockey made that ridiculous comment (knives in bag), it makes Julia’s analogy of big business/football comment as the beat up it was.
After watching Hockey on Meet The Press this morning, the liberals need a complete wipeout in this election, in the best interests of the country and their party.
It means nothing either way, but I want to clear a couple of things up:
Joe Hockey is of Armenian descent. He is not Lebanese, and Armenians aren’t Arabs.
John Howard should either stand down immediately as leader and allow some time for the new leader to present a renewed vision for Australia or he should call the election now in the full knowledge that most Australians know that John will not see out one more term in office.
His must put the interests of the country and his part ahead of his won ego. It time John realise his innings have come to an end and a new batter should take up the bat.
At least Peter Costello get to become Prime-minister even if it is for only three months.
Key member of Team Coward, Comminications Minister, Helen Coonan has just been involved in a train wreck of an interview by Peter Mares on RN’s The National Interest ( http://www.abc.net.au/rn/nationalinterest/stories/2007/2033123.htm )
She really exposes her incompetence by being unable to respond to any of the questions put to her in relation to Netalert properly despite the fact that the scheme is going to cost taxpayers a fortune to implement and in advertising costs.
Glenn Milne, on Insiders, said there would probably be a Galaxy Poll out tomorrow. Is it due this week?
Personally I am looking forward to seeing the removal of Alexander Downer as Foreign Minister. He has failed Australians abroad in so many ways. Lost opportunities and a decline in Australia’s international standing. You sure Alex downers seat is not once again under threat? I would be a sweat victory indeed to seed Alex go. He can always try getting a job as a female impersonator because his impersonation of a foreign Minister was third rate.,
Alan H (46),
I’m not anti-Mackay but the “dream” analogy left me cold. Just as it does when anyone says those who disagree with them have been “dreaming” (or “sleeping”).
Cheers,
Dyno
[Glenn Milne, on Insiders, said there would probably be a Galaxy Poll out tomorrow. Is it due this week?]
Unless Milne has some insider info, the next Galaxy should be Monday week (24/9).
Tomorrow night Newspoll will be announced on Lateline, and Friday will be a Morgan.
Glen Milne is an absolute disgrace. How is it that he has been able to retain his job after his performance live on National TV… His days as a cadet Journalist working for the “Valley Voice” and reporting on the Eltham Shire Council might see him capable of holding down a job in a local rag… if he is lucky.
Our gutless treasurer rules out a leadership challenge. He STILL wants the position handed to him on a platter:
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22426693-661,00.html
The Galaxy poll that Milne hinted at could well be a Bennelong specific poll.
Oops my apologies to Joe Hockey. Let’s leave race out of the forum unless we are discussing Pauline Hanson!
I think John Howard may have drawn on the experience of Singapore with regard to his retirement.
The Father of the Nation, Lee Kwan Yew, is still in parliament and the Cabinet as “The Minister Mentor” 17 years after he retired. His son Lee Hsien Loong is Prime Minister. If he gets through this election, young Richard will get a rapid entry to cabinet and eventually take over from Costello. John who will still be controlling things in 2024.
Of course Singapore does not have an effective opposition
It must be election time when Labor leads on a quiet Sunday with a solemn promise to use question time to make the Govt accountable for boob jobs in the Navy.
What a populist knee-jerk. Sure it’s a daffy story – but doesn’t the party of ‘labour’ reflect that there real women involved, who’ve done nothing more than take a workplace health benefit after a psychological assessment.
Meanwhile, we’re still waiting for Labor to raise questions about the vilification of indigenous communities and deployment of troops on trumped up evidence of a child sex abuse ‘crisis’ ; or about the public waste on ‘netalert’ based on farcical statistics of 50% of young people being preyed on by cyber-strangers.
Peter Costello said:
“I’ll be engaged in drawing the policies as I am required to as treasurer, by the way, because I have to cost them”
We know that the Murray-Darling $10 billion did not go to treasury or cabinet. So how can he say this?
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/opinion/story/0,22049,22424852-5001031,00.html
If Glen Milne thinks the dual leadership thingy will fail then I am beginning to feel optimistic. I’m starting to like him! BTW I thought he was very sober, rational and measured on Insiders.
FYI:Hayden Manning is currently on RN discussing marginal seats in SA.
Sorry ignore that.. it’s on repeat on the “live feed”
Mod can you delete these posts. Apologies
“I’m starting to like him” thanks a lot Lindsay voter. I was having some toast when I read that and (cough cough) I almost choked to death.
[FYI:Hayden Manning is currently on RN discussing marginal seats in SA.]
Thanks! Manning was my first year politics tutor.
49
Howard Hater Says:
September 16th, 2007 at 11:30 am
If the ALP is winning Kooyong, it’s a trainwreck of epic proportions.
Petro ought to ditch Howard and join Labor.
—————————————–
VOTE 1 Dr Ken Harvey
I can see why Petro is in trouble, he does “NOTHING”, I have seen many Pollies over the years and he would be one of if not the laziest MP I have seen.
Fran Bailey in McEwen is a very hard working MP, which makes me think she may hang on.
Bruce Billson in Dunkley is everything you want in a marginal seat and if he hung on the Liberals were wiped out I could see him becoming a very senior figure.
Kalvin Thompson in Will is everywhere showing safe seat MP’s how it’s done, sadly Petro thinks he owns Kooyong, thinks he is safe because a certain bloke was the local MP (Menzies)
I would imagine the Liberals should hold Kooyong the simple fact is with such a slack MP and Kooyong and Howard have never been close and Rudd has run a very positive policy based campaign.
Someone asked about Higgins, I don’t see Higgins falling for Costello is for someone whom is very busy being Deputy (joint) leader is a visible local MP and from what people tell me, he is a likable bloke.
Goldstein, look tough seat but if areas like Bentleigh and Sandringham swing as they have in the past that seat could be interesting
Newspoll prediction ALP 58-Liberals 44
Actually, a good portion of Armenians are in fact muslim. But that is hardly the point.
North Sydney has a huge Armenian extraction population. I used to live in Naremburn, on top of a doctors office (who was armenian descent. nice guy), just up the road from naremburn pizza (run by armenian descent people. nice people). It was also two doors down from Joe Hockeys offices.
He’s a very popular politician in that area, who has lived there his entire life, so I still think it’s going to be very difficult to unseat him. There’s nothing wrong with representing the interests of your electorate. I kinda think that’s the point.
For an update on the US election. The Republicans are in worse trouble than John Howard. Is that possible?
http://www.electoral-vote.com
74 bmwofoz Says:
74 bmwofoz Says:
Actually, I live in Higgins now, and I didn’t live here last election. And I’ll be voting ALP. There are also a LOOOOT of people that have recently bought houses in this area, and mortgage stress would be a very big issue.
Higgins could very well be a big surprise.
Pi,
Mortage street is a big issue in Higgins, not just Mortages, but there are many people on $35,000 + forced to rent, many of these people are in their late 20s early 30s, they have carried a HESC dept, they work full time now they are faced with a Govt that has imposed a poor set of IR laws on them.
Howard and his govt don’t talk to this group, they tend to talk down to this group.
Pi #75
Islam doesn’t equal arab anymore than Baptist equals american.
Socrates:” Further to Hockey’s “handbag full of knives†remark – the sexism raises a question I haven’t seen disussed much – how has the shift in voter sentiment reported in polling been split on gender lines? Does Rudd appeal better to women than Howard, or vice versa? Where has the gain in Labour support come from – women or men or both? I could easily imagine SerfChoice might be a bigger fear to women than men, because they more often occupy the sort of part time and casual positions most at risk.”
I remember a few months ago a poll along those lines was done and it showed that Rudd appeals a lot to the female voters. But I am guessing that a large part of that is from having Julia Gillard as his deputy. Go onto her Myspace page and it is full of comments from young women who see her as a very strong role model.
Howard Hater: “It seems to me the Liberals are screwed, but a terrorist attack in this part of the world or some major Rudd stuffup could yet save the rodent, so Labor supporters, don’t be too complacent”
I think we are too far gone for a terrorist attack to help Howard. Him and his “team” have been saying for years now that Australia is safer because of our involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan. Polling has shown that the majority of Australians do not believe that we are. Therefore if a terrorist attack happens in our area, then it would only harm Howard as it shows that we aren’t safer despite all his diatribe about terrorism.
[how has the shift in voter sentiment reported in polling been split on gender lines? Does Rudd appeal better to women than Howard, or vice versa? Where has the gain in Labour support come from – women or men or both?]
I think the BIG shift has been men moving to Labor after generally supporting the Coalition over the last decade. Labor retained a slight lead with women. But now they have both more men and women.
According to the polls about 1.2 million people have switched from Liberal to Labor. You can’t get that big a switch if it is only one gender.
Therefore if a terrorist attack happens in our area, then it would only harm Howard as it shows that we aren’t safer despite all his diatribe about terrorism.
Tim 82
Agree with that. The terrorism threat is a tricky double-edged sword for pollies. If there isn’t a terrorist attack then people can ask if the threat is as real and big as some pollies make out. If there is an attack then people can ask why they didn’t protect us properly. And if a attack occurs on Howard’s watch, then people will also rightly ask if he actually increased the threat with his policies, especially the Iraq invasion, (and I think he did).
# 81 ifonly Says:
Nor does arab mean anything. But really… if you’re comparing averages, the fact is, Armenia is mostly muslim, and the same goes for Arabs. Doesn’t bother me dude… I view all religions as cults.
All I’m sayin is, is that Hockey represents his electorate very well, and I didn’t even vote for him.
I think Hockey also said he has some Palestinian ancestry as well. It was on St Patricks day, on the Sunrise program, when he suggested it was a big day for Armenian/Palestinian/Irish people and then proceeded to down a pint of Guinness, at 8.30 in the morning.
It seems to me that all is lost for the Liberals now. Over the last 12 months Rudd/Labor have done more than just re-position the goalposts in Federal politics – they’ve moved the entire playing field, including the grandstands.
They have achieved supremacy across nearly every policy area – health, education, IR, foreign & security policy, the environment to name only the most prominent. All year long, the Liberals have tried to play catch up on the issues mentioned above and they have effectively been campaigning for Rudd. He has market leadership on these issues and the Liberals have just been re-inforcing their own weakness.
As well, they have made leadership itself into a mega-issue. In the past this has been a real Liberal strength, but it is now a disaster area for them. You can expect to see Howard’s personal leadership numbers collapse: by his own words, he has gutted his own credentials. He has done to himself what he has done all year long on other issues: he has undermined his own claims to be a reliable, safe and self-confident leader.
But the greatest tactical victory for Labor has been to define the political contest as being about “the future.” They have started talking the langauge of “the future” and are once again playing to Rudd’s strength. They are effectively confirming Rudd’s ascendancy – indeed, they are justifying it.
The Liberals are now in the position where they can scarcely campaign on their record (the past) – as good as it is, at least statistically – and if they campaign on “the future” they will be campaiging for Rudd. They can hardly campaign on “the issues”, because they also affirm Rudd’s leadership positions. And on leadership, the Liberals look like they are trying to perpetrate a hoax on the public.
None of the polls that have been published are at all surprising. If anything, I think they understate the potential result for Labor.
In regards to Victoria what is the expected swing to the ALP in the marginal held seats of Isaacs, Bruce and Holt? I would be fascinated to know.
Any thoughts anybody.
As for the other seats like Kooyong and Goldstein they will not fall. It is inconceivable that suburbs like Brighton, Black Rock, Beaumaris, Camberwell and Hawthorn would swing by 10%. It is utter nonsense.
Have just completed a face to face with Morgan (in the Hindmarsh electorate). Sorry, no good news for JWH – asked that stupid question on soft vote – explained that question should be rephrased.
Pi,
I would suggest that there are in fact very few, if any, Muslim Armenians in modern day Armenia. The few Muslims in Armenia are either Kurds or Azeri’s. The vast majority of Armenians belong to the Armenian Apostolic Church. A large number of Armenians, such as Joe Hockey, are of the Roman Catholic faith.
Also you, like many others, seem to be confusing Muslims with Arabs. The majority of Arabs are indeed Muslim; there is however a large number of Christian Arabs. There are even Jewish Arabs (Syrian Jews, Lebanese Jews, Iraqi Jews etc – broadly referred to as Oriental or Mizrahi Jews).
This whole exercise is entirely pointless, but I can’t let it slide.
graeme 68 says
“Meanwhile, we’re still waiting for Labor to raise questions about the vilification of indigenous communities and deployment of troops on trumped up evidence of a child sex abuse ‘crisis’ ; or about the public waste on ‘netalert’ based on farcical statistics of 50% of young people being preyed on by cyber-strangers.”
You’re rising to the bait of a wedge issue.
Do you seriously think that any ALP govt wouldn’t change these stupid divisive policies?
Do you think Rudd would be in with a serious chance of changing them if he exposed himself to the charge of being “soft on paedophilia?”
Similarly with Haneef. Andrews was begging Rudd to have a swipe, and show himself as “soft on terrorïsm”
Ask Latham (if he’s got over his spleen, or pancreas , or whatever). You tilt at windmills and you get labelled as Quixotic, at the very best.
Hockey’s father is of Armenian descent and was born Richard Hokeidonian in Bethlehem. His mother is or was a Palestinian Arab. The family were presumably originally Armenian Orthodox but are now Catholics. Not that it matters a straw what his ethnic/religious background is.
Even if there is a Liberal wipeout in Victoria I don’t expect Costello to be in any trouble in Higgins. He is quite popular locally. The one benefit for the Libs of him becoming leader is that it might save some seats in Victoria. Conversely it would probably make their position worse in NSW.
Re Hockey/Nth Sydney.
I do give credence to what Pi has stated with regards to Hockey and his constituency appeal. His avuncular persona has been seen a plus electorally until recently where having to front WorkChoices (or lack thereof) has seen goodwill diminish considerably. Also correct with regards to the Armenian enclaves in this seat both around Naremburn/Northbridge and further west around Hunters Hill. Mind you, old man Hockey ( a real estate agent ) is a distinctly unpleasant individual to do business with.
I do expect this seat to swing quite nastily especially along the central spine. The Lib vote will hold up best on both the eastern and wesrtern fringes.
I think North Sydney is safe for the Liberals – while there is a long term trend to the ALP, I think there are enough old money rusted on Liberal voters to keep Joe Hockey in place. I think his margin will be reduced by a couple more percent, but it will be reasonably comfortable in the end.
The double digit swings in the Sydney outer suburban seats are more plausible. The stagnating real estate market in those areas coupled with interest rate rises and the general anti-Howard sentiment are electoral poison for the Libs. I think Greenway and Macarthur will just fall short for the ALP, but will at least be marginal again. Hughes is my NSW sleeper pick for an ALP gain.
Slivers of Crabb Hartcher that twirled readily ‘round my fork.
(paddling harder to stay afloat): “It feels like we’re both earning really good money, but we’re both pushing sh*t uphill trying to get ahead,” reported Tanya, who lives with her partner in Lindsay.
(tenants in aeternum): “The cost of living is so much higher than it was five years ago. It is an impossible dream to buy a house now,” was Larissa’s opinion.
( floaters forever): “Sometimes I feel like we’re flotsam and jetsam,” Gary said.
(disdain at being played for fools): “They just scared us all to death with interest rates and all that, and now the interest rates have gone up anyway,” Larissa said.
“The equivocation suggests that this group of undecided voters, a group that Nielsen’s John Stirton estimates at about 10 per cent of the electorate, retains an open mind and may still be swayed by the Coalition. The election, on this analysis, remains an open one. However, to interrupt Labor’s momentum, ALMOST ALL OF THEM would need to break in favour of the Government.†(my caps)
So, Team Smirk/Rodent’s problem is to win >90% of the 10% undecideds. Theoretically not impossible, but the current bookie average on OzPolitics home page has got to be pretty close to the money.
Re tomorrow night’s newspoll. Bearing in mind the old “disunity is death†adage and the fact that the Coalition havn’t taken a trick all week, I’ll be surprised if it’s not 60/40 or even wider.
“Adam Says:
September 16th, 2007 at 2:26 pm
Hockey’s father is of Armenian descent and was born Richard Hokeidonian in Bethlehem. His mother is or was a Palestinian Arab. The family were presumably originally Armenian Orthodox but are now Catholics. Not that it matters a straw what his ethnic/religious background is.”
I agree, Adam. But there must be Irish in there somewhere for him to have downed a pint of Guinness first thing in the morning, the way he did that day.
The Dynastic Duo (or the Rodent’s Pack) have put themselves in a lose/lose situation and are fast approaching, if not have already reached, a lost/lost situation. JWH’s personal approval is high, and not just for an 11 year PM. The main reason he has never handed over is PC’s low approval rating, which historically is not unusual, and his lack of political nouse. Hence, they lose the JWC loyalists. Similarly, a bounce in the polls for a “new” leadership team is lost to them.
Newspoll 60+ to 40-
Galaxy 59.5 to 40.5
“NO PRISONERS!”
88
Gaynor Says:
September 16th, 2007 at 2:11 pm …As for the other seats like Kooyong and Goldstein they will not fall. It is inconceivable that suburbs like Brighton, Black Rock, Beaumaris, Camberwell and Hawthorn would swing by 10%. It is utter nonsense.
…..
Well, the polls show the Liberals face a swing of more than 10% at the moment. Why do you doubt the polls? They have been very consistent and have a multi-decade record for accuracy. 10% is not impossible – not at all. It is outside the range of most federal polls, but not outside the range of swings in general.
Remember, the Liberals have lost control of the electoral agenda – completely lost control. They have no policies, no leadership, no basic underpinning strategy and no tactical leeway. In the end, they will be reduced to making just one hysterical appeal – they are against Labor, Rudd and other Forces of Evil. The way things are going, this will just constitute one more reason why voters should ignore them.
I myself hope for 15%…..Why not! They richly deserve it.
If Costello became leader, it would kill him Qld.
Too much of the Keatings about him, but minus the cult following.
Hughes is my pick for a shock Labor seat gain. Quite a decent Labor candidate down there, and Dana Vaille is as nutty as a fruitcake.
The 1997 UK general election proved that if a massive swing is on, even safe conservative seats can go(eg. Enfield Southgate in London).