The last thing a dedicated election-watcher needs right now is state by-elections, but that is what fate has delivered us following the retirement in late July of Victorian Premier Steve Bracks and his deputy John Thwaites. Voters in their respective electorates of Williamstown and Albert Park will go to the polls on Saturday in contests that lost much of their sting when the Liberal Party decided not to field candidates. This decision was made by the party’s administrative committee to save resources for the federal election, much to the displeasure of state Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu. There was no controversy in regards to Williamstown, which Bracks won last year by a margin of 24.3 per cent, but the 9.7 per cent margin facing the Liberals in Albert Park should not have been off the dial for a by-election involving a third-term government. However, there remains the prospect of a Greens boilover, with the party’s candidate (who is running again this time) having recorded 19.1 per cent last year. The wild card here is the behaviour of the 34.6 per cent who voted Liberal. The Greens vote in Williamstown was 12.4 per cent, which is unlikely to be enough of a springboard to trouble the Labor candidate. This site will follow the count as it occurs on Saturday evening.
Albert Park candidates in ballot paper order:
John Middleton (Greens). A consulting engineer, Middleton also contested Albert Park at the 2006 election, when the Greens vote rose 1.8 per cent to 19.1 per cent.
Prodos Marinakis. A former communist and dogmatic convert to the right, the highly unconventional Marinakis is involved in both community radio and the Celebrate CapitalismTM campaign. He was initially preselected as the Liberal candidate for Richmond at the 2006 election after being the only person to nominate, but the party hierarchy feared he might prove a loose cannon and replaced him with someone guaranteed to stay out of the papers.
John Dobinson. A resident of Balwyn North, Dobinson ran at state and federal elections in the early 1990s, at which time he identified himself as a conservative (UPDATE: See comments for a more up-to-date assessment of Dobinson’s political philosophy from the man himself).
Nigel Strauss. Strauss ran as a Liberals for Forests candidate in the federal seat of Corangamite in 2001. The Age reports he is running on the issue of logging in the Thomson Dam catchment.
Paul Kavanagh (Democrats). An occasional Poll Bludger comments contributor, Kavanagh was the Democrats’ upper house candidate for Southern Metropolitan in 2006. The Democrats site describes him as an “economic and social policy adviser specialising in job creation, older persons’ policy, migrant skills and regional development”.
Shane McCarthy (DLP). McCarthy is a primary school teacher.
Adrian Jackson. Also a candidate in 2006, Jackson was once active in the Liberal Party, which suspended him in 2003 after he banned Americans and Israelis from his Middle Park bed-and-breakfast. He was also a columnist for Jack Pacholli’s quirky Toorak Metropolitan News.
Cameron Eastman (Family First). As Family First’s upper house candidate for Eastern Victoria, Eastman was described in The Age as the “public face” of the party’s state campaign. He is a retired naval officer who “works in a civilian capacity for the Victoria Police”.
Martin Foley (Labor). Foley is chief-of-staff to Police Minister Bob Cameron and a former official with the Left faction Australian Services Union. Andrew Landeryou reports Foley comfortably won the local party vote ahead of 2006 Brighton candidate Jane Shelton and former Port Phillip mayor Liana Thompson (who although factionally non-aligned was said to have backing from Thwaites’ Independents faction), prompting the latter two to withdraw ahead of a second round of voting by the party’s Public Office Selection Committee. Brendan Donohue reported in the Herald Sun that Labor had “spread the rumour” that basketball star Andrew Gaze might be its candidate, without indicating a motive.
The candidates in Williamstown:
Catherine Cumming. The local Star News paper tells us the 34-year-old Maribyrnong councillor is “a doctor of Chinese medicine and a midwife-in-training”.
Janis Rossiter. Another Maribyrnong councillor, the Star News paper says Rossiter (who “refuses to reveal her age”) is “part of the Municipal Association of Victoria’s reference group for Melbourne 2030”.
Janet Rice (Greens). Yet another Maribyrnong councillor. Rice served as mayor last year, and is also chair of the Metropolitan Transport Forum and vice president of the Victorian Local Governance Association.
Wade Noonan (Labor). An official with the Right faction Transport Workers Union, Noonan won preselection ahead of Rhonda Reitveldt, former campaign adviser to Julia Gillard, and Maribyrnong mayor Michael Clarke. This followed a botched attempt to recruit ABC television sports presenter Angela Pippos, which provided an early embarrassment for the new Premier. Pippos was initially receptive, but pulled the pin when the story was leaked shortly before she was due to reach her final decision. Andrew Landeryou reports that Pippos had been approached by Right faction powerbroker Theo Theophanous, reacting to concerns that both nominations would go to male union officials. Brumby got into further trouble by wrongly stating it was Pippos who had approached the party. Late withdrawals from the race included the Premier’s economic adviser Nick Reece, whose initially promising bid reportedly expired after failing to win support from branch members, and Darebin councillor Diana Asmar, who withdrew to give factional colleague Noonan a clear run.
Vern Hughes (DLP). A newcomer to the resurgent DLP, Hughes co-founded the People Power party with Crikey’s Stephen Mayne, which contested last year’s state election. He withdrew from the party six days out from polling day, accusing Mayne of “trivialising” the campaign. Hughes is director of the Centre for Civil Society, and is described on Wikipedia as “an Anglican writer and social commentator”.
Wajde Assaf. Assaf was also a candidate at last year’s election. The Star News reports he is a former Australian Defence Force member who has been on a disability pension since being assaulted five years ago, and was inspired to run by his experience with health system waiting lists.
Veronica Hayes (Family First). A 24-year-old nurse from Camberwell.
Nathan Tavendale. A 29-year-old “information technology specialist” from Altona North.
Vivienne Millington. No substantial information on Millington could be located.
It’s great to see this analytical material on upperhouse.info to assist voters in these by-elections.
To the extent that the by-elections have generated any media attention at all, the dailys have been obsessed with the endless petty brawling between ALP and the Greens.
So much for voters in a democracy making an informed choice.
Some Albert Park candidates have not helped by, in some cases, not responding to community groups. Only five out of the nine candidates attended the largest election forum – the public transport, water and environment CAPP forum held in Middle Park on Sunday.
As a result many locals who have voted over the past ten days have been craving alternative candidates to consider. They generally think there are only two candidates and many have decided to vote informal, thereby giving the ALP every chance of winning !
Prodos and I have attended the Early Voting Centre every day to advise them that a total of nine candidates are contesting, including some who are making serious bids for the seat.
It has passed most people by but if Albert Park goes to preferences the Democrats have a chance of winning – recieving (effective) preferences from strong liberal-leaning independents and the Greens.
The election coverage is improving. The Port Phillip Leader today provides all candidates’ policy statements and photos. Candidates are now letterboxing and community groups such as Blue Wedges and Save Albert Park have leafleted themselves, detailing candidates’ views on their issues.
So, despite the mainstream media, the people of Elwood, St Kilda, Middle/ Albert Park, South/ Pot Melbourne and Southbank are, at long last, being informed about their options for voting on Saturday.
Democracy and participation may yet prevail in Melbourne’s inner bayside !
Thanks Paul, although Upperhouse is another place.
Yes, my apologies; I refer to, and enjoy, both sites regularly.
I am pretty tired after many long days campaigning – typically spent at South Melb. early voting centre, then delivering leaflets, attending evening meetings and coming home to work on the computer.
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1
Paul Kavanagh Says: … …Albert Park, South/ Pot Melbourne and Southbank…
Ah, I have friends who recently moved from Port Melbourne to Sydney and I managed to visit in April. So, was it intentional or was it a typo: “Pot Melbourne”. I love it. Saw an Organic Grocer there, so who knows with a pedigree like that the Greens candidate could be in with a chance.
(baseless, unfair stereotypes made in humour)
Seriously, it will be really interesting to see how the liberal voters express their intentions. They are relatively good at following Party recommendations on preferences, so if the Victorian Liberals made a recommendation while not standing, it could be quite influential. I suppose it will be a matter of profile and trust from them. So I expect one could add about 10% to each of the Greens, Democrat and Family First candidates. Any insight from locals? I’m from the (far) West.
I know Albert Park quite well, and while the ALP had a margin of 9.7% I feel in reality its a lot closer than that, for that reason the Liberals have passed up a chance to go close if not actually win it.
I suspect the reason the Liberals didn’t run is they would have copped a thumping over Federal issues, not just Workchoices but Welfare, Social justice issues, Higher Education policies and the cost of Renting and home affordability.
So with no Liberal running, I would expect the ALP to win on Primaries, people talk about the Green vote which is very strong across the seat, with their vote being strongest in St Kilda, but the Greens strongest booths in St Kilda are both in the state seat of Prahran (Reden Central and St Kilda East)
John Dobinson was, if my memory is working, the Liberal candidate for Greensborough many years ago.
If the ALP repeat their vote from 2006 in Albert Park, they will need 9% from preferences.
But where from?
The Greens or Dems are about the only chance of beating the ALP, Although the Dems cant let the ALP get any preferences, their primary will be too low. Not all Greens will follow the ticket and put the Dems above the ALP.
So we have the DLP, FF and 4 independents that the ALP are counting on to keep Albert Park. Is that enough?
Will the ALP get as high without Thwaites personal vote and a new candidate?
What an amazing group of candidates, mavericks and has beens’ .
May well be marky marky, but there’s a will be amongst the has beens and mavericks. 🙂
Yup last time ALP 41%
http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/state2006resultAlbertParkDistrict.html
The 3PP was
ALP 43%
Lib 36%
Grn 21%
If there was a repeat of preferences this time around over 80% of voters who prefer Liberals to Greens or Labor would have to preference the Greens.
I’m not sure how likely that is. How do liberal voters tend to preference in Victoria? Or can I ignore the by-election as an upset is impossible?
I want Prodos to win. Surely he appeals to a broad spectrum of opinion!
Surely Prodos would make for a rich oppositional member of Parliament. He’s got campaign mp3s. When will the other candidates catch up?
Aside: Can you smoke a Barboolabong?
I like libertarian free thinkers, in small doses. Liberal Party member, though. Deadens some of the spicey curiosity.
Ah for PR and Australian parliaments with some tiny Libertarian, Communist &/ Syndicalist Parties with representation to keep things interesting.
The other factor contributing to voter disconnection with this by-election is the approach of many high-end, high rise apartment buildings near the Yarra that equate residents’ security with their disempowerment.
Nothing, it seems, should disturb the idyllic life of the wealthy inhabitants of Freshwater Towers, especially something as plebian as politics. “We pride ourselves on not disturbing residents with these things” one told me today.
So we now have another institution blocking informed choice for voters and restricting participation on the political process.
Had they contested, I wonder if the Liberal Party would have received a warmer reception from the managers of the apartment towers.
Thwaites had a personal appeal to some potential Green voters especially via his wife Melanie Eagle who is well tapped into these networks, although Foley’s left union and student politics experience might help here. In Cunningham the independent (but Liberal member) was known to be a Liberal, had a strong local government profile and had campaigners on the ground. Don’t think this is case for either of the Liberal-ish independents in Albert Park.
Has there been any polling for the by elections? Reputable, small or whatever?
In normal circumstances I would think that Albert Park would be a contest for a middle of teh road alternative party aided by teh fact that the liberal party have pulled out of the race. Why waste resources. It is much easier to win a 60% “safe seat” then a tight marginal. (Look at Wills)
What makes this elction safe for labor is that labour is not facing any real disputation or contest. The government maintains teh support of a majority of the people. However the fact is that all candidates except for labor themselves will be most likely preference away from labor. Any drift will hand Labor a sure win. Tight preferences between all other parties could produce a twist ion the night. The minor parties are aided by teh fact that voting is compulsory. I would expect there will be a campaign for liberal voters to vote informal or they might split between the Democratic, DLP and Liberals for Forests. Can they out-poll the greens and if so will the green vote go to independents before labor? I think not.
Should be a safe win for Labor. A good candidate no issues of contention.
Overall by-elections are a waste of money and Victorian should be looking at adopting an alternative way of filling casual vacancies. Maybe a by-election held in conjunction with the local government elections now that Victoria has fixed terms.
Disagree with the “Thwaites” local factor. Malanie Eagle was a counselor in St Kilda but overall was no leading light. Thwaites was elected as a result of the string left-independents group around the time when the independents “John Cain, Evan Walker, John Button had some presence in the ALP. This group soon fell apart and Locar Unity regained ascendancy in the region. Thwaites only just survived remaining the local member due to teh fact that he was a senior minister. Had he not been in the ministry he would have lost pre-selection back in 2002.
I am in Albert Park, and received the ‘dirty tricks’ letter from the ALP smearing the Greens. It was clearly a party political letter, with no reference to the ALP. That’s dirty, as far as I’m concerned, and I’ll happily vote Green as a result.
Keep it above the belt.
Off to vote in London tomorrow just down from Australia house…..I expect there will be very very few overseas votes to come over.
Ditto Kymbos, although I did vote for the Greens in the last state election.
If the Democrats got 4% that would be pretty good I think. Electoral funding, and a bit of momentum for the federal election!
Fantastic to see Vern Hughes with the DLP. Go Vern!!!
DLP = A.L.P. (Alternative Labor Party)?
Disclaimer: I’m a friend of John Middleton (Greens candidate) and have been actively campaigning for him.
This election will be interesting. I’ve spoken with several members of the ALP in the seat, many of whome are annoyed that the by-election is taking place at all, especially as Thwaits was a popular local member. Some have indicated they may vote switch there vote over this, but I would actually consider it unlikely.
The seat is in an area of contrast. From the housing commision flats in South Melbourne and St-Kilda, to solidly middle-class Albert Park, right though to swanky South Bank apartments. This makes it difficult to pitch a message, and even more difficult to predict where the 35% Liberal vote is going to fall. I think the booths to watch will be in Port Melbourne, Albert and Middle Park, and perhaps in Elwood.
I would guess at this stage there is about 30% of the vote slushing around. Many voters will not make up their minds until polling day. As I said, this will be difficult to predict, but I do think the Greens are in with a shot, although Labor is clearly the favourite.
Good luck Paul, I’ll definately be putting you second! (I share your pain about the residential towers in South Bank and on St-Kilda road)
Greens will have no hope of winning either seat with the DLP giving their preferences to ALP ahead of the Greens. Great to see the DLP back as a force to be reckoned with in state politics, they can use this byelection as a springboard to the Senate election where they are in with a show of winning a seat. Great for democracy to see their reassurgence.
What has been funny is that the Labor Party has not put forward one policy except to open Albert Park Secondary.
yep the same one the Labor party closed.
And they dare send me a letter accusing the Greens of wanting to close schools. Dirty tricks are not going to win my vote.
Here is a Labor voter switching sides!
Hi everyone
Thank you for your second preference ChrisC but if I’m to win this election, as I so very much want to do, I need your first vote!
I could get up with a vote in the mid-teens, if;
– ALP/ DLP/ Family First combined poll under 50%, obviously.
and
– Democrats, combined with the serious ‘liberals’ (Prodos and Nigel Strauss), outpoll the combined Greens/ other two less conspicous Independents.
You are dreaming P. K. Labour, F.F, DLP vote will far exceed 50%, you are heading into a disaster, i recommend you quit while you are behind.
Democrats have had their day and are in terminal decline.
The bastard that could not “keep the bastards honest” are past their use by date. bye bye Demorats
Perhaps wishing thinking by both of us. You may be right but I cannot see the DLP or Family First attracting many votes – they have been nowhere in this campaign, and they are not popular in this part of Melbourne.
Even if the unlikely bedfellows (the troglodite ALP, the Falange and the Moral Majority) poll more than 50% it would not be a “disaster” for the Democrats, only for the chances of achieving a more progressive Victoria.
In the the 2006 election in Albert Park, the DLP did not even stand a candidate. Albert Park, with its large GBLTI community, and generally more youthfull electroate who weren’t around during the schism is not a DLP leaning area. I would guess that most DLP voters would be more conservative ALP voters. As such, the DLP, I think that DLP first preference votes will more likely come from ALP voter pool, not from the Liberal or Greens/Dems pool.
FF have been entierly absent during campaigning, and polled a whopping 1.1% in 2006. I can’t really see them improving on this by a considerable margin, unless there is some campaign by stealth that’s been massively successful. My thoughts from campagining in Port Melbourne and Albert Park, which generally have high Liberal votes, is that most are more “wet” Liberals. As such, Nigel Strauss may be attractive, but FF probably won’t be. They just don’t have a presence down here.
As such, I don’t think that the inclusion of FF and the DLP will change the result hugely. But really, I’m at a loss to try to predict this one.
Paul I think you’re over-selling it a lot. If the Democrats get 4% that is a stunning reversal of their electoral fortunes and an amazing result.
While I hope the Dems pick up around 10% as I do like them (mostly), and I think they can get close to 10 from the Libs as the centrist alternative, the more realistic figure is about 5%.
Has there been any polling at all- even the sort of Mickey Mouse survey of 100 people in the local paper- in Albert Park? I assume Williamstown is a given for Labor.
I’d agree that under normal circumstances Albert Park is not fertile territory for either the DLP or Family First, but Liberal voters without a candidate of their own to vote for have to go somewhere, and both of those parties stand to benefit from that (more so than the Greens, I would think).
The follow-up question is then, since the vast majority of Family First and DLP voters are likely to be people who would rather be voting Liberal, how likely are they to follow a HTV card that puts Labor above the Greens? My guess is that the preferences will go all over the place.
Once it was the mining seats that the conservatives would leave to fought out between Labor and the Communists, now it is the inner-city lifestyle seats that the conservatives leave to Labor and the Greens. How politics has changed. On the DLP my guess is that no one in Albert Park knows what it is, apart from people who would never vote for it.
I don’t see FF or the DLP polling particularly strongly (I think they may get between 3-6% each at the most), although it does depend on how well they cover polling booths. The most recent by-elections in Victoria where a the Liberals didn’t stand were federal ones in Holt (1999) and Isaacs (2000). The DLP did well in Holt in getting 7.31% (they out-polled the Greens who got 6.36%), but the donkey vote would have been significant for them in that election, and it was a much better area for them demographically than Albert Park. In Isaacs, when they didn’t have the benefit of the donkey vote, they only got 3.00%.
I’d think they’d be lucky to do as well as they did in Isaacs in an inner-city seat like Albert Park.
The difference this time is that in those 2 byelections the DLP did not have any members sitting in any Parliment. Now they a member in the Upper House in Victoria, Peter Kavanagh. This will give the DLP vote a boost, as people will realise they are more relevant, they are a party that are now represented in Parliment, and are not likely to go away. So we can expect to see an increase in their vote from the base of 3% they received in Isaacs, probally up to about the 7/8% they received in Holt. This vote for the DLP will be a significant springboard into the senate election, in which they are in with a chance for a seat in Victoria, if they can poll better than Family First. Their recent upset win in the Upper House should remind all parties that they can dismiss them as irrelevent at their own peril.
The fact that they did win a seat was mainly due to the fact that no one saw them as a threat, so there was no problem with giving them preferences. Same with FF. Now people see that giving the preferences might elect them, they will get less votes/prefrences.
Doesn’t really change anything anyway. The Greens have had seats in NSW and WA for years, but that hasn’t translated to the lower house.
I’m struggling to see how the DLP could do that well. In 2006, their vote in southern metro was 1.14%, and they contested very few lower house seats. They have had very little presence in the campaign and Peter Kavanagh (as opposed to Paul Kavanagh) is really quite unknown, which contributes to their low profile in the electorate. I don’t think they are likely to attract Liberal voters, who are much more likely to go with Strauss or the Dems. I wouldn’t rate their chances very high.
Also, as I said before, the DLP votes are likely to come more from the ALP rather than the Liberal and Greens/Dems voters. They will preference the ALP straight back, so the total influence will not be great.
However, stranger things have happened, and as I said before, there is about 30% of the vote slushing around and who knows where it will end up?
Bert,
Your statement, “no one saw [the DLP] as a threat, so there was no problem with giving them preferences†contains an assumption which a quick scan of the press and the Legislative Council voting record should dispel. There is a strange belief that the Greens and the ALP are allies, when they are in fact rivals. It suits the ALP not to be totally dependent on the Greens in the Legislative Council and, if it had a choice between having three Green and one DLP MLC and having two Green and two DLP MLCs, it would choose the latter – for pragmatic reasons. The ALP-DLP preference deal in the Victorian election was after the ALP-DLP-FF preference deal for the Senate had shown exactly what could happen.
Actually it contains no such assumption. All I meant was that the DLP were not seen as a serious prospect to win. Like I know the SA will never win, so I know that putting them second wont stop the Dems from getting that my preference.
You have also stated that the Greens and the ALP are rivals. Maybe if viewed from the right or within the ALP this is true. In general the Greens only rivals are the Libs, FF, and others on the right. Except for cases for the Dems in the senate and the ALP in Melbourne.
Hmm.
The card runs 234567891` from the top, as Labor candidate Foley is bottom, and Jackson is one place above Eastman (FF) so the worst this could be is carelessness.
what?
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/attack-on-alp-over-vote-cards/2007/09/13/1189276900475.html
I think voters in Williamstown this by election should Vote for Nathan Tavendale the guy has got out there seems to come from a very professional background and has a few good ideas if he runs a computer firm with a 50 million a year profit im sure he can give the people of Williamstown a better choice after looking at the other candidates the only 2 real contenders i think are Wade Noonan from the ALP even though he has been given a free ride most of his working career what this state needs is no more union hacks in parliment and some real innovators Good for you Nathan. Yove got my Vote.
JOHN DOBINSON: I am standing as an independent for better aged care and hope by standing that the premier and the PM will react positively to problems I see in aged care which I have mentioned elsewhere. Politicians, as I have said, must visit facilities in their own electorates and listen to families with loved ones in care. Families know the problems and solutions.
Other issues: I don’t want a F1 Grand Prix in Victoria; I want poker machines slashed by 10 per cent per annum and closed from 10pm to 10am daily. I believe children should be taught in school how to cope in later life with raising children to protect children from physical and mental abuse. I believe we need to renurture and foster quality manufacture in our state- there will come a time when the world will want Australian products for being Australian and I’d like to see Victoria benefit. We also need a legislatively based media tribunal to replace organisations like the Australian Press Council which is just plain weak: last year, for example, I stood as an independent in Kew and the local Progress Leader in the month leading up to the election did four double page spreads on the campaign over four weeks and made no mention of my candidacy. I complained to the APC and it said I was outside its 60 day complaint period. Frankly, political discrimination should have concerned the
APC no matter what day it is. The problem was that Leader had reduced the campaign down to evaluating the two major parties in this state, which worked against small parties and independents, particularly those standing for the upper house.
OTHER: I was described as conservative on your site, for the record: in the 1980s I was a Liberal.
In 1992, I stood as an independent supporting the retention of our state’s public utilities; in 1993 I was the Democrat for Menzies; in recent years I stood for Council on a No War platform in Boroondara prior to the invasion of Iraq – and for the record I like Americans, it’s a great country but Iraq was a disaster.
During the years of the State Coalition in Victoria I wrote many letters published in papers attacking the Victorian Coalition Government.
Eventually in Victoria, our media kowtowed to the Victorian Coalition – the Australian’s Michael Magazanik being the exception – and having less success getting my criticism published in the press, I took to the road. I created a leaflet, a poem called No More Mr Hitlerpig, and letterboxed it – under shop doors – in provincial, marginal electorates, and sent the poem to provincial media. I feel I can take some credit for bringing down the kakistocracy of the 1990s in Victoria, so I wouldn’t call myself conservaitve.
Conservative today means the two major parties.
Victorians should do themselves a favour and vote independent or for small parties in state politics, federally, I might be called conservative: I’d rather Costello than conservative copycat Rudd. At least we know what Costello is about; with Rudd do we ever know what a copier is about since it’s not his own work?
Vote for me and vote for the Greens after me.
Whatever the outcome, I stood up and I have not been shutup: just because I’m not reported doesn’t stop me expressing myself.
Have a nice day and peace be with you all.
Cheers,
John Dobinson
As Geoff says, the only people in Albert Park who know who the DLP are wouldn’t vote for them. I’m confident they will get less than 4%, and if they were below the ALP on the ballot paper it would be less than 2%. Most of these voters will have voted Labor at the last election, and in many cases will be confused as to who the DLP actually are.
Some Liberal voters will probably choose to cut out the middle man (it being an all male field I’m not using sexist language there) and vote for whoever they prefer out of the ALP and Greens, but I think most won’t.
The two questions of real interest regarding the Liberal voters is whether they break to the right (Family First, Prodos, Adrian Jackson) or to the left (Democrats, Nigel Strauss, John Dobinson), and how inclined they will be to follow the relevant preference cards. I don’t think we have a lot of past evidence to guide us on this, and tomorrow night will be particularly interesting as a result.
Before last state elections DLP were on around 2% of vote, having a member elected to the upper house, with the higher visibility that brought would gain them another possible 2%, the liberals are not running so their share of the votes, say around 30% in both seats will have to be shared so DLP should get 4/5% of that vote, whick will bring them up to 8/9%, in each seat. Libs votes have to go somewhere, and they wont go to ALP, so other parties will get a share, FF and DLP and Greens will share this vote along with the independents. Independents do not have a very good history of polling well in Victoria unless they have a specific agenda that gains public support. There is no specific issue in this poll. The save Albert Park issue has largely died and will be of only minor interest in this election. ALP will win both seats by a big margin
Sorry Goanna but thats just wrong. The Grand Prix is getting bigger again, channel deepening is huge, to name two. Also, you only hear about upper house members from minor parties if you keep track of politics, or there is some scandal like they block supply. Only a maximum of 5% of Aussies take notice of whats going on with the minors even less with the state upper house as this is not televised.
Besides all this, if you assume a member will give you an extra 2%, the Greens will get an extra 6%. Now I know you think this wont happen, but if you apply a higher visibility state to one, then you must to the other. Actually, that would be more for the Greens because Albert Park and Williamstown both elected a Green but not the DLP.
The Greens get the Donkey Vote in Albert Park and are higher on the list than Labor in Williamstown. Would I be right in thinking that by-elections would have a particularly high rate of donkey votes? In which case this could be worth a good 2.5% for them.