Peter out

Queensland Premier Peter Beattie has announced his intention to retire as of Thursday. He will hand the reins to long-established heir presumptive Anna Bligh, who will follow Carmen Lawrence and Joan Kirner to become Australia’s third female premier. This means a by-election looms in Beattie’s seat of Brisbane Central. While this is hard to get excited about (it is all but certain that the Liberals will not field a candidate), it’s interesting to note that Beattie’s margin fell from 25.0 per cent to 19.6 per cent in 2004 and then to 14.8 per cent in 2006. Of greater interest is the symbolism involved in two state premiers recently deciding to quit while at the top of their game, and the contrast presented by the present incumbent of The Lodge.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

446 comments on “Peter out”

Comments Page 5 of 9
1 … 4 5 6 … 9

  2. It feels like the Costello swap is a fifty/fifty proposition. Peter’s recorded unpopularity, weighed against the inevitable poll bounce when a leader is changed as the unengaged out there respond to novelty. The idea of it makes me nervous, therefore the idea of it must make some Coalition people hopeful. Can’t decide if either feeling is justified, days and days of discussion here notwithstanding.

    What all the leadership talk from within the Libs does tell me is that they can’t have much up their sleeve for the campaign. No sign of confidence in what they had to take to the people. Howard tonight talked about putting forward a vision for the future as though he’s just stumbled across the idea. Sounds like the ads in the can are all about Labor inexperience and Union Bosses. Time to make some new ones, whoever is PM by Wednesday night.

  3. [ a big picture of Howard, and the words “Working families have never had it so good” ]

    That’s got to be the worst election slogan I’ve ever heard. Might as well say ” what are you whinging about ” or ” Stop nagging me”.

  6. Glen, the media are NOT to blame for the mess the PM is in.

    That is a poor argument that smacks of sheer desperation.

    You must have something better than that to offer as an excuse for the impending demise of the Howard Government besides ‘inexperience’ and ‘media bias’ ?

    Is is not just an election “about the Opposition leader”, the electorate are not that narrow minded. Face it Glen, it IS time for a change.

  7. Albert Ross housing has not become a catastrophe under Howard and i will explain why in a simple but informative matter…

    1. Housing is not a responsibility of the Commonwealth…The States have the powers to release land and at the moment they are withholding land to jack up the price to ensure they get top dollars in stamp duty and other taxes. The Commonwealth is making an audit of Crown land to see what can be made available but that is all it can do…

    2. The Howard Government cannot be blamed for people overextending themselves with borrowing more than they can logically afford some people have been stupid enough to borrow heavily when rates were at record lows stupidly thinking they can stay that why and did not get fixed rates…if they think rates are high now just wait till they see how Rooster Swan gets them!

    3. Interest Rates under Labor Av 12% Interest Rates under Coalition Av 7-8% i know which Party is doing a better job and so should you.

    4. Rudd’s rental policy is a joke he’s putting money for a project that wont be finished for 5 years and will help 50,000 out of 500,000 people supposedly under rental stress wow that’s going to do alot!

  8. Aww Glen, now I have to say that has to be the biggest dummy spit of the year. The reason the media is give Rudd a clear run is that the Libs have this most fragile ‘unity’ that has ongoing scandals about leadership challenges, with Tip acting like a spoilt kid not getting what he wants, to Wilson Tuckey saying there should be a spill and that. The government has been outwardly negative all year and has at any stage this year given a clear direction of where they want Australia to be in 5-10 yrs.

    I suggest you ring Murdoch and tell him that he isn’t being nice and that he should give Howard ‘a fair go’.

  9. I’m hoping that The Rodent’s renowned stubborness will see him through this difficult period.

    I really want to see Howard go to the polls and be politically executed by the people.

  10. Glen,

    So in other words the Liberal Party policy on housing is to ignore the problem and deny liability. Just what you want from a responsible government. Any wonder people want them out?

  11. No Paul read what i write the Liberals have been arguing for months that the Labor states should release more land for housing and whenever Howard asked Rudd to call up his Labor mates the Premiers what has Rudd done NOTHING! He refused, the ALP are almost entirely responsible for the housing crisis…its simple release more land and prices will drop and more houses will become available…

    I wouldnt say they want them out paul k Howard has an approval rating of 50% for a leader of 11 years id say they are happy with him….the election isnt over yet paul k or perhaps your hubris has got the best of you already!

  14. GG you say its the Liberals fault but i dont see the Constitution saying the Commonwealth is the only authority on housing issues….last time i checked Housing was the responsibility of the States god you guys know enough about politics to know this!

  15. [ your hubris has got the best of you already! ]

    Glen,

    Very arrogant of me to read the polls. I guess only humble people ignore them and put their faith in an aging stubborn leader who cares more about himself than he does in his own party or the country.

  16. Glen,

    The Productivity Commission investigated the issue of housing affordability about 2 years ago and they found that land supply was only a very minor factor. One of the major factor’s they found though was the laws around negative gearing that fuelled the purchase of multiple investment properties.

    Of course once your Treasurer Peter Costello read this in the report he disowned it and buried it.

  17. Glen, the whole thing of its the states’ responsibility is just utter bull. There are many factors that relate to it, and land prices is just one factor. People are getting of sick of Howard and Co. just pointing fingers when something isn’t going well, and they pat themselves on the back when something goes well. That’s not leading, leading would be actually doing something about it.

  18. Just for a bit of light entertainment, if you were a DJ what song would you play for John Howard at the moment?

    I’d go for The Angels’ “Looks like it’s coming down on me”.

  19. [GG you say its the Liberals fault but i dont see the Constitution saying the Commonwealth is the only authority on housing issues….]

    Local government is a state issue, but that didn’t stop Howard from getting involved in that.

  21. Glen: Housing under Howard

    http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2003/s916452.htm

    [‘JOHN HOWARD: Well, there’s a lot of that in it, Catherine, of course, market forces are important. Market forces are always important. But I don’t think people want their own houses to be cheaper.

    I repeat what I said a few moments ago, nobody has complained to me that the value of their principal asset in life, their family home, has increased over the last seven years.’]

    Arrogance and stupidity personified.

  22. Glen,

    Their mistake was political opportunism that caught up with them. Owning interest rates was a rod Howard created for himself. Libs shouldn’t be peeved because the issue has flipped.

    Now that I have your attention, would you please respond about Possum. Why are you Libs so scared of someone having a different opinion.

  23. Glen: Howard’s approval being over 50% throughout his term as leader is few and far between. That’s an indictment on a leader with a booming economy.

  25. As this thread began with PB’s retirement, I just wanted to offer the observation that the following contrast strikes me as significant:
    Bracks born 1954, Victorian Premier 1999-2007
    Beattie born 1952, Queensland Premier 1998-2007
    Howard born 1939, PM 1996-?

  27. peter costello, the saviour? well, it’s a long shot. but it’s probably better than the alternative if you’re a lib….

    the logic of leadership tensions is that they don’t dissipate until the challenger has had a real go and then either wins or quits. the genie is really out of the bottle now and won’t soon be put back in. the public know this issue will have to be settled some time: either now or in a year or….one way or another, the leadership is the primary issue now for the libs. for howard – as well as costello and the rest them too, i suppose, the sad truth is that an unstable leadership is an unelectable one.

    i noticed tonight that howard was quick to rule out a party vote – he doesn’t want to risk it. it was the only thing he really sounded sure about. they have to settle this somehow or other. if howard won’t resign, he will have to be removed…but is it do-able?

    the risk for the libs is that a spill could take place but not resolve anything – just open up divisions. howard alluded to this sort of thing tonight when he mentioned the mcmahon government.

    they are damned if they do and damned if they don’t….richly deserved…

  29. “Mr Howard said he had discussed quitting as Liberal leader with his family last night, and they had encouraged him to stay on.”

    That’s funny; he consulted his family but not the party room. I wonder why not?

  30. So what’s he going to do over the next two weeks? What policy will he announce?

    It is obvious he will spend Wednesday’s question time talking up the APEC climate change declaration, he will talk alot about selling uranium to Russia.

    What else is he going to announce?

  31. Costello will be the cause of a bigger loss for the libs, he is barely coherent when he is being seriously interviewed,he is super cautious about what he says, because,IMO, he is afraid to reveal what is really on his mind. In parliament he can look good,a cheap imitation of Keating. He is a cold eyed rightwing ideologue with a couple of redeeming features. Please let these rumors be true,I will have incurable happy feet until election day. Its too bloody good to be true.

  32. I’m inclind to agree with Il Duce. Outside Victoria Costello would be poison. Anyway the problem with the government is not Howard. I know everyone here hates him, but I think most of the punters still have some respect for him. The problem is WorkChoices, and Costello is just as hardline on that as Howard is, maybe more so. Costello is more ideological than Howard, not less. Once it sunk in that PM Costello was just more the same only a bit younger, the polls would sag again very quickly, particularly in NSW.

  33. We have now entered the limbo world for John Howard.

    The leadership speculation is not going to stop until the Libs change leadership or Howard calls the election.

    Tonight, despite a day of categorical assurances that Howard will stay on to lead the Party into the …….., we have specultion that Wilson Tuckey will move the leadership vacant and nominate a WA colleague at tomorrow’s party room meeting. Others are saying that Wednesday is the day when Costello will move.

  35. Just noticed this in the Townsville Daily Bulletin

    “BURGER king George Colbran looks headed for Canberra. A poll conducted exclusively for the Townsville Bulletin shows the McDonald’s franchise owner and Labor Party candidate would be the new Member for the Townsville-based seat of Herbert had an election been held over the past week.

    The poll, by the AEC Group, found Mr Colbran enjoyed a two party preferred vote of 52.8 per cent compared with the current Liberal MP Peter Lindsay of 47.2 per cent.”

    (that’s a swing of 8.9% folks)

  36. The more I watch the 7.30 report… I contend we have a dead man walking. APEC may have been his last chance to convince the party… it didn’t work. Costello is rooted either way… but what choice does he have? There is no other circumstance where he will be given the leadership… it’s a long shot… but to go with the status quo will destroy the party. His job will be to save as many seats as he can. A new leader will steal the press and stem the flow (if only for a moment)… give understandable logic to election delay… And allow ‘ some’ shift on policy that might give them hope… dramatic policy shift under Howard won’t sell… but it might with Costello.
    Worth a thought… I hope Rudd is ready just in case.

  39. Simon: Thing is, he is planning to work with Tim Costello in working on strategies about pokies. Tip must be furious with his own brother about that.

  41. [Simon: Thing is, he is planning to work with Tim Costello in working on strategies about pokies. Tip must be furious with his own brother about that.]

    That’s brilliant positioning by Rudd, shows his willingness to work with anyone to solve problems. Unlike Howard who has just attacked the states relentlessly.

    In fact, Rudd’s response to the “Labor in every state, and federal level” scare should be “a good P.M. should be willing to work with anyone, irrespective of which political party they are in”.

  42. Wow, backbenchers were explicitly told not to comment on leadership speculation yesterday:
    http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22396498-952,00.html
    “But an attempt to impose discipline ahead of the campaign backfired yesterday, when an order gagging backbenchers from discussing the leadership issue was leaked.

    Several Government MPs told The Courier-Mail they received instructions by SMS from the Government Whip not to comment.”

  43. Adam (re George Colbran): George is well known in Townsville, especially for owning all the Maccas in the region, and his donations and community involvement due to his success. I never got to meet him, but he is definitely a high profile candidate. Peter Lindsay is useless, and it’s amazing the number of times his office gets egged. If you have seen his office you will think he is the PM or something, as he has a HUGE sign saying he is the local MP.

    I’ve sent an email to William seeing if he will do a write up about Herbert, since in State politics the ALP has 3 of the 4 Townsville seats (though Burdekin is more rural and includes a local of cane farmers), also at the local level the ALP has been in power for a long time. The Townsville region has been known for some big swings in State politics so a big swing federally wouldn’t surprise me. Makes me want to move back home, and vote Lindsay out.

    I did go home for Easter this year, and there were Vote for George signs everywhere. Lindsay will have a hard time to get the funding to campaign against George who has made a bucket load of money out of his Maccas franchise. George is a classic example of you can be in business and support Labor (he has been in the party for ages)

  44. Watch the LIbs accuse Rudd on Hypocrisy over Pokies.

    [As Chief of Staff to former Queensland Premier Wayne Goss, Mr Rudd oversaw the introduction of poker machines in Queensland clubs from 1989, The Australian reports.

    Mr Rudd said he was concerned states were now over-dependent on poker machine revenue.

    “I hate poker machines and I know something of their impact on families,” Mr Rudd said.

    “I have spoken at length with (World Vision Chief Executive and welfare activist) Tim Costello on this.”

    He said there was no magic solution, but if elected he would enlist Mr Costello and others to measure the real social impact of gaming addiction.]

    http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22398038-5005361,00.html

  45. Antonio said at 108 re JWH on 7.30 Report

    ‘no rush to the polls. He must be planning to bang through a lot of legislation that will pre-empt or block Labor policies’.

    Question all. How could that happen?

    And if new legislation gets through, and through the Senate, can it be implemented? Even if, can’t such be altered or ditched by next government. Assume Labor.

  46. Not if the Coalition still controls the Senate. That’s why they put thru a bill locking away the Future Fun to stymie Labor’s broadband policy. This will make a 2008 DD more likely.

  50. Thing that got me about the 7:30 Report was that he is only going to give a direction for the next 3 years, not where he wants the country in 10 years time. If you listen to Rudd, he says he is wanting to set the ground work for 10 yrs time. Howard admitting he only wants a plan for 3 years could come back to bite him has Labor can say ‘Look, we were right, he is only about the next election’.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 5 of 9
1 … 4 5 6 … 9