Queensland Premier Peter Beattie has announced his intention to retire as of Thursday. He will hand the reins to long-established heir presumptive Anna Bligh, who will follow Carmen Lawrence and Joan Kirner to become Australia’s third female premier. This means a by-election looms in Beattie’s seat of Brisbane Central. While this is hard to get excited about (it is all but certain that the Liberals will not field a candidate), it’s interesting to note that Beattie’s margin fell from 25.0 per cent to 19.6 per cent in 2004 and then to 14.8 per cent in 2006. Of greater interest is the symbolism involved in two state premiers recently deciding to quit while at the top of their game, and the contrast presented by the present incumbent of The Lodge.
Great link – does this mean there could be a cure for being conservative?
Albert F 234
Nah, it’s congenital.
Is Howard saying to his colleagues:
“I promise not to lose by much”
Or is he still saying:
“I can win!”
It seems many of them don’t really believe him anymore 😐
Phillip Coorey made mention of the lack of NSW Liberal candidates in Monday’s SMH:
Choosing Costello removes:
1. Claims of experience
2. Fear of change – there will be change no matter what
3. The front cover of Howard, the only symbol of strength and depth of the Govt
4. His campaigning and in front of camera experience
5. Those voters hanging on because of Howard [50% approval]
6. The Rudd team suddenly look more credible in comparison.
It exposes Costello out in front. He doesn’t articulate very well, talks in ways that half miss the point, speech some times obscure or wasted because of bad timing or not in the general vernacular. Costello would need months as the front man to get into the swing of things and to pick up a few skills.
WHY would Howard wait any longer when every week could actually be costing him votes? He has that looser look about him now, people are assuming he is done for and may want to put him out of his misery.
Or have they got a plot with GW Bush to do something untoward?
First of all, congrats to the Growler from Greensborough for using 2 words in the 1 sentence ending in `is`, hubris and debris. Off the top of my head I can only add chamois to the mix. Super stuff. Ah, just remembered another. Pen anyone?
#234 apparently people are working on the `born a conservative` cure. For gay conservatives though, scientists remain pessimistic.
Any other resident Pullbludger Tokyoites?
Howard has got his senior ministers to profess loyalty. Now he seems to be daring his party to remove him (7.30 Report last night). If he can ratchet up the dare until someone bites, all those “loyal” ministers will have to dive in to the fray, shredding their credibility in the process. End result – the whole edifice comes crashing down. Is that what Howard is aiming for? He knows he’s beaten so he’s going to take everyone else with him?
Anyone think it’s completely boring that on the day after Howard begins his new strategy of saying “Look at the Labor team… union officials!” that the front page of the Daily Telegraph is:
Unions on a free run to parliament
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22397023-5007132,00.html
God guys… you never surprise.
Greeensborough 201#
In your earlier post you claimed reduced pay etc. Those claims are not borne out by the official figures on inflation, average full-time weekly earnings, average weekly earnings etc.
The polls are about perception and may be the way they are because
-a mood for a change
-a perception that people are worse off
-they like the school prefect look
etc
The polls are how people intend to vote, you were claiming a situation that was not in evidence. As I said before….there is no need to make things up, I will add to that ….unless you are trying to create the perception that people are worse off.
Re (171)
Gecko Says:
September 10th, 2007 at 10:33 pm
Sorry Sondeo… I know this source really well… seemed that’s the word. I give it cred.
I understand if Gecko can’t give more details. Nice analogy between the present situation though and the recent past of AFL coaches. In the AFL, the time you need to really worry and KNOW that the coach is gone is when the club president is forced to come out and support him publically. “Oh, yes, I support the work our man has done, no worries ….. ” and this is supposed to stop the string of rumours that the coach will be pushed out the door. Happens nearly every time in that pattern. Do not know if this chain of behaviour is followed with NRL clubs, I don’t follow that code of football.
Nice parallel with the way that all coalition folks lined up on Sunday/Monday to support him. If it has come to that, it might be past the point of saving his skin. Will await Wednesday’s news with pleasure to see what develops ;-D
What you heard could be right, Gecko. But I hope it’s wrong. I so-o-o want to see Howard finally accountable to the voters, and go down big time. Cut and run or a coup avoids that, and always allows him the luxury in his memoirs of claiming, “Of course, I could have turned it around and won if only my party had had faith.”
My own feeling is that he may yet force a public showdown if someone is brave enough to tap him on the shoulder. Fading quietly into the sunset doesn’t seem to be his thing.
Ifonly,
You can live in your own little fantasy world that Workchoices is not one of the primary reasons that the Government have lost support since the last election.
It turned up as a factor in the Victorian and NSW elections, the Unions have spent millions to promote the issue and the Government has striven fruitlessly to spend taxpayer money to counter it. And, still the punters say it is a “crock”
Go down to any pub or club and talk to people who were Howard Battlers and are now changing to Rudd. Why – Workchoices. And, if your not put out by big words, read Possums earlier analysis on this issue.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2007/08/23/howards-movements/
Please keep talking about it and please advise Howard to keep saying, like he did last night, that Workchoices is good legislation. Evidence to the contrary is right before your nose.
There is none so blind as he who will not see.
Herbert is looking good based on Portland. $1.78 Coalition, $1.90 Labor and $67 other. That’s 51%, 48% and 1% respectively.
Greensborough #261
I didn’t say that workchoices and the union ads are not affecting the polls, clearly they are. Ads are not reality, they are perception.
You claimed people were receiving lower wages, repeating the ad not the reality.
Since the last election the measure of;-
inflation has risen from 145.4 to 155.6, an increase of 7.02%
Avg full time earnings from 961.5 to 1071.7, an increase of 11.46%
Avg earnings from 758.30 to 857.50, an increase of 13.08%
There are three options, either
you are not well informed and have been convinced by the ads
or
you believe the ads despite the evidence
or
you believe the evidence but repeat the line about lower wages to push an agenda
If either of the first two are true you are a case in point as to why the polls are where they are and if the third is true then clearly you believe repeating the mistruth will convince others.
I start to get concerned when people need propoganda to convince others, if your case is strong you should not need to.
Averages tell you that if your feet are in the oven and your head is in the freezer, that on average you are warm. But, tell me, how do you feel?
Workchoices is also about loss of lifestyle e.g. loss of weekends, penalty rates, non family friendly shifts etc. We live in a society not just an economy. Intangibles have value too.
Guys, far be it for me to break the left love-in that has settled over the blogs in the last few months, but has anyone noticed Rudds change in personality lately?
The real danger for Rudd is in becoming another Costello – smarmy and uppity. In the news over the last couple of days he has attacked both Howard for being a being of the past (warranted) and called Costello a “failure”. Costello isn’t a failure no matter what the left believe. He has delivered the surpluses they need and just been overruled in what to do with the money if Howards biography is to be believed. Rudd has also attacked the states over pokie revenue. It is a shift in focus from small target to large by lashing out at larger picture issues. It also shows (over?) confidence in polls.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/rudd-goads-rivals/2007/09/10/1189276633557.html
The danger is Rudd beginning to come across as a smart-arse. Stick with small targets, stay positive and never attack the Govt this hard on their success at economic level.
Must have scared them. Kerry Bartlett, the proverbial lettuce leaf.
Greensborough #264
Now you are changing your story, you originally claimed it was loss of wages, now it turns out it is about higher wages in return for changed conditions. Damned cunning those bosses.
Smart observation Grooski.
As for Howard’s leadership, you would think, having seen the 7.30 Report, that Howard will certainly lead the coalition to the election. But I just can’t believe that the backbench will happily sign their death warrants. The poll in Herbert (mentioned earlier) just seems to confirm the general size of the swing, and that’s it’s just as strong in regional Australia (Howard’s heartland) as in metro areas. At least half the coalition backbench must be seriously worried about losing the seats (or seriously pleased about collecting a parliamentary pension).
The rumour that Howard will resign is just a rumour, with no hard evidence, and I’m sure Howard himself doesn’t believe it. But what if someone (Tuckey?) moves a vote of no confidence in Howard in the party room this week? How would that vote go? Those media persons who spout the Costello line have given plenty of hints that Costello would take the job if it was vacant. Howard losing a no-confidence motion would make it vacant, without a challenge being required.
The Liberals still haven’t got a candidate for the marginal Labor seat of Banks – today’s SMH.
Wasn’t Peter Lindsay claiming yesterday there’s huge support for Howard in his electorate? Maybe he hasn’t seen the latest poll for Herbert LOL
Howard’s program for the next 3 years: aspirational nationalism gone mad, and lots of bribery.
Antonio, my guess is that Howard would easily win a no confidence vote. The senior Libs would have got rid of Howard before the backbenchers, and they know there is no alternative.
I also agree with Grooski on Rudd, his tone has been slightly off-key in the last few days. I time it started exactly at the point he kept on speaking Mandarin after the first round of applause.
#265 – Grooski, this is not a change in personality. Rather, this is Rudd trying to steal a march on the only remaining strong point the government has left – the economy. Rudd knows that if he can actually overtake Howard (and Costello) on perceptions of economic credibility (an idea which was completely unthinkable two months ago) then it really will be a carve up at the November poll.
Greensborough, if opposition to Workchoices is such a vote winner, why did Rudd and Gillard spend the year toning down their objections to it?
Grooski,
personally I really don’t like what I see of Rudd – he’s too manufactured and insincere for my taste. however ANYONE is better than the despicable lot that have held the reigns for the last 11 years. I suspect the adage that “Oppositions don’t win elections, Governments lose them is” is correct. As long as the alternativePM is reasonably ok -unlike Latham- he/she is in.
It’s a big risk for John Howard to sit for two weeks. He just leaves himself exposed to a coup. Surely there would be little risk of a coup after he announced the election.
If there are another couple of heavy duty polls as bad as the last three then the nervous nellies on the backbench will rise as one.
It’s likely that all this talk of leadership and comparisons between Peter Beattie leaving so young and “renewing” the government and John Howard clinging to power will affect the Coalition’s polling.
The polls may go even further backwards and then what?
Will it still be crash or crash through?
I think it’s still touch and go whether John Howard leads the party to the election. About 50-50 currently.
Tony Abbott acknowledged that Alexander Downer was equivocal about change and didn’t attack him for it.
I wonder if Alexander Downer was invited to appear but declined?
Was anyone else also invited but declined?
I would think we watch the words and actions of Alexander Downer for clues over the next few days.
He may well be stitching up a deal for a peaceful transfer and accommodating Malcolm Turnbull’s ambitions at the same time.
He would need to have him keep quiet during the transfer.
It’s possible that Peter Costello is resigned to his fate of being temporary PM.
Ah well, he can at least put in his CV
“Prime Minister 20th September – 3rd November 2007”
Perhaps better a PM for six weeks than not at all.
Of course John Howard is going to bluster and try to shut up all leadership speculation and declare bravely that he can win but in his heart of hearts he must know he can’t.
We’ve all seen leaders declare that they will lead their parties into the next elevction and are quite determined to win.
John Howard would probably be as mortified to see his own seat go to Labor and losing the election. He knows that would happen if he were deposed but that is the price the Liberals may have to pay to have a ghost of a chance.
We’ll see if the plotters are courageous enough to take on John Howard.
…as mortified losing his seat as losing the election
Downer and Turnbull dump Howard !!!
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22398637-29277,00.html
HH: LOL! Thing is he is probably only speaking to the people in Annadale and Douglas where his vote is the strongest.
Looks like Gecko might be right. 😉
Howard says parliament will ‘definitely’ sit for next two weeks. Is he lying? If parliament does sit through, Howard et al will use the House to attack Rudd and his team, particularly Gillard and Swan. It will be ‘inexperience’ over and over. Desperate stuff and risky for Howard as Rudd will pull as many censure motions as he can. Inflation figures due on 24 Oct, so election most likely for 27 Oct (before RBA raises interest rates on 6 Nov).
FOREIGN Minister Alexander Downer and Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull no longer believe Prime Minister John Howard should lead the Liberal Party, Sky News has reported.
Sky News said Mr Howard discussed his future at length with his family on Sunday.
I think the “Working families have never had it so good” are psychologically effective ALP ads. Look at the authorisation.
I heard some claims the other day that some government ads are appearing without authorisation… anyone know if there’s any truth to that?
RE: 281
ABC Local Radio Sydney 702 are talking about the Downer/Turnbull treachery with Sky News political reporter now
Grooski 265
“but has anyone noticed Rudds change in personality lately?”
Yep, but I think this is part of the plan. One of Rudd’s great tactical victories so far this year is that he has avoided having to attack to a large extent.
It reminds me on Sun Tzu’s art of war – avoid going out to attack an oppenent. Instead build strong defenses and make them come out of their positions.
Then attack them when they are in this vunerable position.
I think this is what will happen over the next month.
Sky News understands Foreign Minister Alexander Downer and Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull have advised John Howard that he should step down.
David Spears is saying –
: Downer and Turnbull’s comments i support of the Rodent are equivocal.
: that Howard has been unable to quell party rumblings
: that party room does not have the bottle to move a spill
: that this intense pressure is coming from more than the usual suspects like Washer and Tuckey
: that election will be in November
Move along. Nothing to see here.
Turnbull and Downer are denying. So it must be true.
No, they (Downer and/or Turnbull) would have ensured this was leaked and they would have done it for a reason. Party unity behind Howard in the face of an impending election is not the one that springs immediately to mind.
Brilliant. Beattie resigning leaves Anna Bligh of the Socialist Leftovers as the new premier of Queensland, guaranteeing the ALP a loss at the next federal election. And it makes a laughing stock of their party at the state level as well. Just the thing I wanted.
And even better news: General David Petraeus’ report has shown that the surge in Iraq is working. In eight of the last 12 months, the number of civilian deaths has fallen. In fact we are now down to early 2006 rates, vindicating Bush’s position and discreting the defeatist Demonrats and their leftard friends in Oz. Heh heh heh……
I think Howard should call the election at the end of this month and go for a seven or eight week campaign. Ample time to expose the Krudd opposition for their terminal inexperience when it comes to the real thing. The winds of change blow ever fiercer as the day of the ballot box nears……
Damn.
He’s finished.
I really wanted to see Howard’s concession speech.
Nostradamus –
surely you jest.
Glen, elections are normally about the government, not the opposition.
Oppositions have a threshhold of competence/appeal that they need to meet. If they don’t they will be punished such as in 2004 and 1993. But once they meet this threshhold the question becomes whether the government deserves reelection. This was the case in just about every other election in the modern period.
You need to face the facts: the ALP is ahead not because of what the nasty old media has been saying. The ALP is ahead because people don’t like Workchoices and they think that this government has had a long enough go.
Ah Nostro. You are SO eight weeks ago.
There’s no point telling him that. Glen will think Howard was robbed til his dying day. The world is just so unfair.
But I thought the Exalted Leader said that it doesn’t matter, who has responsibility, he’ll step in if there’s a problem?
I re read my post at 165 and of course you Liberal pedants, as usual, focus on a single item on the menu, rather than the big picture smorgasbord I was trying to present. But that’s OK.
If you lose penalty rates, then does that not constitute a loss of money. i.e. less pay for the same amount of work. Workers then have to work more hours at inconvenient times to sustain the mortgage or perhaps the missus has to take on a couple of shifts at the local supermarket or whatever.
I only wish I’d added the real sauce that people do not like the taste of a Government boasting about their obscene budget surplus when families are struggling to pay the mortgage.
Regardless, please keep talking this issue up because you know it is an absolute winner for the Libs.
Sky News reporting that Downer and Turnbull have lost confidence in Howard. All hands on deck in the Canberra press gallery….
Supposedly Turnbull is denying anything ever occurring. It sure is fun watching them self-destruct. It shows they must think they’re in trouble… you have to wonder who leaked this story to Sky News. I doubt they’d have just made it up.
Yeah, Mr. Rudd has been slightly ‘off’ in the last few days – and I’d concur with the Piping Shrike that it started with the Mandarin.
Also:
1. Mr. Rudd is putting on weight – what is it with Labor leaders in Opposition and weight gain – Kimbo, Latham now Rudd – only Crean didn’t and that’s cos he wasn’t there long enough.
2. Mr. Rudd needs to get another make-up ‘technician’ – sometimes it’s caked on – but this unflattering pasty, yellow tint… other times no make-up at all. He looks weird either way.
3. Mr. Rudd has got to stop with this one particular smile. It’s truly a contorted mess – all puckered up and strained, lips pursed… just wrong and yep, it does look insincere but worse… almost creepy. Especially when combined with inch thick make-up (see above!:))
4. Mr. Rudd is starting to get that prissy, whining tone back into his voice. Haven’t heard it for a long time… and he’s been very disciplined keeping his voice measured and slightly deeper. He seems to be slipping back to old habits now. This also has to stop.
Mr. Rudd summed it up awhile when he said (paraphrasing) that the first part of the ‘campaign’ was to show voters reasons not to vote for the Liberals… the second more difficult part would be to demonstrate reasons to vote for Labor. Mr. Rudd should just stick with the positive now. Let the Liberals slip slowly beneath the waves. They don’t need any help going down.