Peter out

Queensland Premier Peter Beattie has announced his intention to retire as of Thursday. He will hand the reins to long-established heir presumptive Anna Bligh, who will follow Carmen Lawrence and Joan Kirner to become Australia’s third female premier. This means a by-election looms in Beattie’s seat of Brisbane Central. While this is hard to get excited about (it is all but certain that the Liberals will not field a candidate), it’s interesting to note that Beattie’s margin fell from 25.0 per cent to 19.6 per cent in 2004 and then to 14.8 per cent in 2006. Of greater interest is the symbolism involved in two state premiers recently deciding to quit while at the top of their game, and the contrast presented by the present incumbent of The Lodge.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

446 comments on “Peter out”

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  1. Nostrodamus: I know you are really a Labor supporter, you have been masquerading as some zany Liberal for all these months.
    Wow, so the rodent might be history by tomorrow? It’d be bittersweet for me, I’d rather see Howard humiliated in a landslide election defeat.
    Oh well, there’d be one winner out of it: Maxine McKew, who’d surely have Bennelong in her grasp without the Rodent as an opponent.

  3. @295 Call the election please Says:

    There’s no point telling him that. Glen will think Howard was robbed til his dying day. The world is just so unfair.

    You forget the Liberals undying allegiance is to der Führer for the time being (albeit with the obligatory obeisance to the demi god Menzies)

    Once Howard is gone they will trash his name and trample his legacy (such as they are) in their rush to demonstrate their faithfulness to the new leader and whatever tin pot ideas he has.

  4. The Sky story will lead to a flood. Interesting that it is Malcolm Turnbull and Alexander Downer. I wonder if they have been working in concert.
    Alex may have just worked out that they do indeed have a better chance with Malcolm Turnbull than Peter Costello. No question in my mind.
    The leadership change is now on. It’s probably only a matter of whether it’s going to be Peter or Malcolm.
    This story was not there by chance. It’s a tactic in the larger strategy of rescuing the 07 election. Desperate times need desperate measures.
    It’s more like 80% leadership change now and what are the odds on the two? 60% Peter? 40% Malcolm?

  5. Stay strong John and don’t give in to these mere bounders. We need you there at polling day.

    Also remember, Hyacinth has that rolling pin ahndy in the kitchen drawer and we don’t want to upset Hyacinth do we?

  6. Howard is hanging on because he is an extraordinarily spiteful man.

    First he wants to push through as much legislation as he can to make government difficult for Labor should they win; get deals through that support his ‘mates/supporters’ and, make as much trouble as possible for people he dislikes and doesn’t want to succeed – Costello. Maybe Howard no longer cares so much about election results and has become his real poisonous rodent self, doing as much damage as possible on the way down. Pure spite. Of course Costello knowing his time is up could be just as vengeful in return and cause more harm to the coalition.

    If Labor do win and it is a blood-bath then the Senate has little rationale to block Labor election policies including the reversal of and spoiling legislation Howard might try and put through now. Given the cost of this campaign and the lack of Liberal funds a quick legitimate DD would see them suffer.

    Interestingly depending how Howard and Co behave from here on – they could recover lots of seats now at risk but still lose the election or, go rabid and spiteful and end up with a 1993 Canadian result. Obliterating the party.

  10. none of your ranting left wing monologues can discredit his good record a record Keating could only dream of

    Hawke/Keating: floated the dollar, deregulation and reduction in tariffs to create the modern Australian economy; compulsory super; Medicare

    Howard: GST, Gun control (a leftist issue that Howard had opposed in the 80s) and Workchoices (which will be comprehensively rejected by the electorate).

    Oh and Iraq and Tampa. Feel free to keep telling yourself that history will be kind to Howard on these issues. Just don’t read any actual history in the future.

  11. Glen, would very much appreciate your thoughts on this, old son. Not quite sure, but there appears to be a bit of a trend, n’est-ce pas?

    CBet 10:20 AM EST. Lab. $1.39 Coal $3.00

  13. Greensborough #297

    There doesn’t seem to be evidence of people working more hours. According to the ABS there was an increase between 1985 and 1995 but since then there has been
    a drop in those working 60+ hours
    even in the 51-59 and 41-49
    a drop in the 35-40
    a slight rise in the 30-35
    a rise in the 21-30

    It would seem to suggest that people are working less hours not more, do you have any evidence or are you just quoting from a commercial again? ……it really shows how effective those ads were.

  14. howard muffed it yesterday. he should have signalled the election would be sooner rather than later. by postponing, he has guaranteed the government will feel the blows of more horror polls.

    the polling this week could be expected to be catastrophic: the leadership in dispute…the strategy disintegrating….the king himself looking lost, broken….

    well, he had his chance and he’s missed it.

    the liberals have no choice. if they fail to act, they will be obliterated.

  15. Enemy: That’s just mean. Pointing out the Coalition is now at $3.00. OUCH! So that makes them at ~32% chance of winning, and it keeps getting lower and lower.

  16. What great way for Howard to put a quick knife in Poor PM Pete is to resign his seat straight away and so give Poor Pete a little less time to hang around before calling the election Though I am unsure of how long a byelection can bedelayed it would be a factor in not spinning out to janO8 the election

  17. “if they fail to act, they will be obliterated.”

    Oh, I think they’re going to act. A tap on the shoulder via the long arm of Sky News. Classy stuff.

    And this is not good. Costello or Turnbull or whoever will get a poll bounce, and the narrative of the election will change. It will be up to Labor to convince people the new team is just as bad as the old team, or worse. And they may succeed. But you can bet the new PM will quickly move to change direction, and ideology be buggered. Workchoices will get a makeover, so will two or three other key issues. It may well all be lies and more lies, but it will create a new ball game.

    Newspoll will be phoning around Thursday/Friday, yeah? Interesting.

  19. what if any impact this will have on those who have locked in their votes is the most intriguing aspect i feel -will people now reconsider their support,both lib and lab, or will it solidify their vote?

    the other aspect is the amount of chatter regarding the libs-almost as if the floodgates were opened and a torrent of anti liberal sentiment has ensued-will this chatter subside or have we yet to reach the full impact of it?

  20. It’s funny reading the comments on the news.com story and seeing all the Lib hacks throwing a tantrum because the media dare report anything that could be seen as negative for the Government. Such utter vitriol… it’s great!

  21. We are now witnessing the self-destruction of the Liberals, which will inevitably lead to, as I predicted earlier, a Ruddslide of biblical proportions.

    The Liberal leadership speculation now has gained critical mass and has become self-propelled; a runaway process that will deny Howard any clear air in the media until he either calls an election, is challenged for the leadership or resigns.

    If he rides out the 2 weeks before calling the election, as he wants to do, then he will inevitably suffer more poll damage. I doubt whether his senior ministers will tolerate this.

    Whatever the outcome from this mix of options, there is one constant that will apply in all cases: Liberals not getting their message out and being seen to be in disarray, with the end result being further loss of public support.

    I hope all the it will be a close election brigade have now woken up to reality.

  23. John Howard won’t go voluntarily.

    He is drunk on power and arrogance. That line about staying leader as long as his party wants him is yet another Howard lie.

    The question is whether his party will remove him now? Unlikely.
    And just how large the backlash will ultimately be, come election time.

    The unfortunate thing for us all, is that if Howard isn’t kicked out, he will be spending like a drunken sailor on anything to try and get reelected.

  24. Howard can fix this quickly – call an election. It is obvious what is going to happen, that rats will start biting each other as they do in times of stress.

    Julie Bishop to retire? Can Costello be far behind? Downer? Ruddock?

  25. If, as I have maintained all along, it’s all about WorkChoices, necking Howard at this point won’t make any difference. Costello is just as committed to WorkChoices as Howard, maybe moreso, and once the punters realise that any initial “bounce” will soon be lost. The real circuit-breaker would be to make Turnbull PM and promise a review of WorkChoices, but I doubt the Libs have the nerve for that – what would the BCA and the Morgoth press say?

  28. It’s a job resume.

    A new fiftyish male leader with a forty something female deputy promising a bright tomorrow.

    Now where have I seen this before?

  30. “Mr. Rudd is starting to get that prissy, whining tone back into his voice. ” -300 Johnny Rocket.

    Maybe the Libs can dig up another Scoresgate for him. Worked last time.

  32. This has nothing to do with the Libs wanting to win the election: that horse has bolted long ago. It’s part of their firewall strategy. The Libs are setting themselves up for a stint in opposition; Turnbull will be the leader after the election full stop.

    Why not change now?

  33. Yep, it’s no longer an “if” but “when”. Just as I thought, the media narrative is so opposed to Howard now that a push for leadership change has gained a life of its own. If Howard digs in his heels now, he will destroy his party, but when he realises that he no longer has the support of the party room, he may well have no option but to go.

    I hope Labor are ready for this scenario. And I hope that they have not just planned for a Costello PM but also a Turnbull one.

    I would love to know what Rudd is thinking right now. Does he think he stands a better chance against Costello or Turnbull than Howard? Would Rudd have preferred Howard to stay?

  34. The liberal theme song has to be “the dead march”from Saul, heard so often at funerals.
    The death throes even of a snake are not pleasant to watch. We should avert our eyes, and think of all the good times we owe to the dear departed, like……. Oh well!
    Let’s move on and make Australia a better place.

  35. One couldn’t ask for me entertainment. The problem seems to be a cult of personality, people have followed Howard not the Libs.

    Only problem with this leadership speculation and Beattie standing down is, that Rudd announced a few policies yesterday but he got no coverage about them since the media was looking elsewhere. Labor is going to have to come up with a big, electorate friendly policy and get some positive media, that would be a way to kick the Coalition while they’re down and just cement their own vote.

  36. What a poisoned chalice for Costello! He’d really have to junk a lot of Howard’s policies, soften Workchoices and pull troops out of Iraq for instance if the Liberals are to have any chance of retaining government.
    OK, I could be very wrong, but I can’t see Costello being able to pull off another 1983 type victory. He might save a few Liberal seats in Victoria, but can you see this guy winning votes in Western Sydney?

  38. The “Turnbull/Downer deny leadership challenge” stories are getting to frenzy levels in the media…

    Howard’s going to struggle with this if he stays. Every little hint of a challenge, a resignation, instability of any kind is going to be blown massively out of proportion.

    One suspects the duo above have told Howard he should resign gracefully without directly threatening him with a coup… yet.

  40. Peter Out – Peter In. I think Costello will challange for the leadership. If he did the party would have to back him because the alternative would be Howard even more weakened and isolated than he is now. There would be absoultelty nothing to loose for Costello, this is his one and only shot, Howard has made it clear that he will not go volunterilly. A sucessful challenge will be much better for him than a smooth transition. It will make him look courageous and give more of an impression of a change of direction for the govt than if Howard were to just hand over the leadership.

  41. 774 have just reported that it is expected that a delegation will visit Howard early this afternoon to advise him he has lost the support of his front bench.

  43. Henry, Keating did it to Hawke. The new leader would still be able to form government because the parties would still be able to pass a vote of confidence in the new leader.

  46. Thanks guys for the clarification re: challenging the PM.

    Can Howard circumvent the whole process (of his deposing) by calling the election asap, ie today?

    Thank you.

  48. The Prime Minister of Canada is addressing Parliament. His speech sounds like it was written by the Liberal Party. You could hear the Libs calling out in agreement. A very partisan speech I thought.

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