Seat du jour: Lindsay

Based around Penrith 50 kilometres west of Sydney, Lindsay was created with the expansion of parliament in 1984 to accommodate growth in the city’s outer west. It currently extends into conservative semi-rural territory to the north (Castlereagh and Llandilo) and south (Mulgoa and Orchard Hills), but most of the voters come from an urban concentration around Penrith. This area is stronger for the Liberals in the south and west (Glenmore Park and Emu Plains respectively) and for Labor in the east (Werrington). Before Lindsay was created, Penrith had shifted from Macquarie to Mitchell to Chifley, the general area becoming progressively stronger for Labor as it became more urbanised after the war. Lindsay had a notional Labor margin of 12.3 per cent when it was created, and the area remains a happy hunting ground for the party at state level: the corresponding seats are held by margins of 7.0 per cent (Londonderry), 9.2 per cent (Penrith) and 10.9 per cent (Mulgoa). My 2004 election booth result and swing maps for the electorate can be viewed at Crikey.

Labor’s Ross Free held Lindsay by margins of around 10 per cent throughout the Hawke-Keating years, having previously been member for Macquarie from 1980. He was most unpleasantly surprised to find himself voted out in 1996, following an epochal 11.9 per cent swing to Liberal candidate Jackie Kelly. Free was able to secure a re-match because Kelly, who did not expect to win, had failed to get her affairs in order before nominating (she was still serving as an RAAF officer, an “office for profit under the Crown”). Voters dragged back to the polls on a technicality rewarded Free with a further 6.8 per cent drop in the primary vote, and Kelly picked up another 5.0 per cent on two-party preferred. The combined 16.9 per cent swing to the Liberals meant the electorate’s demographic profile came to be seen as typifying John Howard’s constituency – high numbers of skilled workers on good incomes, low levels of tertiary education and a distinctly less multicultural flavour than suburbs closer to the city. Kelly was able to limit the Labor swing in 1998 to 0.3 per cent, one of a number of decisive marginal seat outcomes that ensured the return of the Howard government from a minority of the two-party vote. This secured Kelly’s status as a prime ministerial favourite, helping her win promotion to the position of Sport and Tourism Minister. Many thought this to be beyond her competence, and she did not return to the ministry after leaving it while pregnant immediately after the 2001 election. She nonetheless continued to perform well electorally, picking up a 2.4 per cent swing in 2001 and almost holding even in 2004.

Two events during the current term have given good cause to think that Lindsay might finally return to Labor at the coming election. The first was the unveiling of new electoral boundaries last July, which added Labor-voting St Marys, Oxley Park and Colyton in the east from Chifley, and transferred Liberal-leaning Glenbrook in the Blue Mountains foothills to Macquarie in the west. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 5.3 per cent to 2.9 per cent. The second came in May when Kelly announced her intention to retire, much to the Prime Minister’s dismay. Kelly immediately named Penrith councillor Mark Davies as her preferred successor, but he evidently found little support from the party. The Prime Minister and the Right faction hoped to enlist Penrith Panthers recruitment manager Peter Mulholland, but their approach was declined. The nomination instead went to Kelly’s electorate officer Karen Chijoff (right), who picked up a 6 per cent swing as candidate for Mulgoa at the March state election.

Labor’s candidate for the third successive election is David Bradbury (left), Blake Dawson Waldron lawyer, Penrith councillor and former mayor, who for all his campaign experience is still only 31. Bradbury was installed as candidate by the national executive using the power the national conference granted it in April to determine preselections in sensitive seats. This displeased the National Union of Workers, said by a number of sources to have been marshalling forces for union official Mark Ptolemy – although Brad Norington of The Australian reported in May that it was in fact backing Ptolemy’s fiancee, 23-year-old school teacher May Hayek. Ptolemy was Labor’s candidate for Macquarie in 2004, and turned his attention to Lindsay when it became clear the Macquarie nomination would go to Bob Debus. Norington reported the conflict in terms of a split in the Right, with Bradbury having “historical links” to the Transport Workers Union.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

122 comments on “Seat du jour: Lindsay”

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  1. Blair

    You said “She was on maternity leave.”

    Are you implying she was up the duff in March 1996? If so you’d have expected have the Bub by the October special/by-election which she hadn’t – well at least she didn’t turn up at the booth I was on pushing a stroller.

    My recollection is that she married he beau, the dentist from Orange, after she was in Parly for some while.

    Anthony/Adam – can you answer me this: my recollection from 1996 is that the AEC made a bit of a song and dance about the October re-run as being a “special election” rather than a by-election. But currently on the AEC site it refers to it as a by-election.

  2. A “special election” just the US term for by-election.

    A supplementary election is a contest that’s been deferred from general election day. Usually because of the death of a candidate. e.g. Newcastle 1998, Frankston East 1999

    I’m pretty sure that contests that are disputed, overturned and re-run (e.g. Mundingburra 1996, Lindsay 1996) are termed by-elections rather than the supplementary elections.

  3. Maybe it wasn’t maternity leave then. She was on some form of leave and doesn’t really matter what type, she stuffed up in being unable to stand, either because of a mistake or accident. And it was even bigger mistake of ALP to re-contest the election. The art of war says only fight battles that you don’t have to fight if you are confident of winning.

  4. This bit about leave.

    What about Bailey standing in Hockeys seat, I actually heard a ABC news director say that he may not be able to come back as he had declared his political allegiance, but would Bailey be eligible to stand if he is just on leave without pay.

    And Pru stood in the NSW election yet Howard kept her job open until she was confirmed in her seat.

  5. So far as I know, a by-election occurs when a member has taken their seat, and then for whatever reason the seat becomes vacant, which is what happened when Kelly’s election was declared void. The same thing happened in Melbourne in 1904, Echuca in 1906 and Ballaarat in 1919, and I think there have been others. A supplementary election happens when a candidate dies between the close of nominations and polling day, as happened in Dickson in 1993 and Newcastle in 1998.

  6. Interesting archaelogical discussion about Sqd Ldr Kelly. Afraid I can’t help much! I only note that the 1969 Defence candidates Act isn’t an automatic safety net: the personnel member has to apply. Legislation as such can’t get around a constitutional barrier if it applies to a particular person: rather, what Acts like this and similar public service legislation does is provide a safety net (eg guaranteed reinstatement) and help the military/PS appear apolitical.

    It’s possible (even as a legal officer) that it never occurred to Kelly that she might be disqualified because of her NZ birth or her occupation. Also, Liberal HQ probably didn’t do routine checks in those days. It’s not uncommon for those who run never expecting to win to get caught up in these thickets (in a sense this happened to Cleary) whereas those in marginal seats will be vetted and take no chances.

    Prof Gerard Carney’s book on MP’s and their Entitlements is the definitive work on disqualifications. I’ll dip into it on Monday to see if it clarifies the evolution of the defence force/air force issue in the constitution. Presumably air forces were undreamt of in 1901!

  7. Could be wrong, but I’ve always thought it was a requirement that a potential candidate formally resign his/her Government job in order to be eligible to stand for election. In the case of Bailey, I’d be surprised if that was not the case.

    Doesn’t he have to get pre-selection first? If he gets it, then he resigns. If he doesn’t, he’s probably looking for a job somewhere outside the ABC.

  8. Technically, Lindsay 1996 Pt 2 was a fresh election or ‘re-election’ – because the general election was declared void, ie it never occurred at law. Semantics really, as Adam says after a failed election due to candidate death the term used is ‘supplementary election’ when the election was no more/less aborted.

    My instinctual guess is the ABC, as a fully owned corp of the Cth, is part of ‘the Crown’. Someone like Mike Bailey can’t just take leave without pay – Phil Cleary had been on unpaid leave for a long time with the State teaching dept, and was still caught up in the net.

  9. Well said Bazza,

    Cathy O’Toole had the misfortune of running in 1998 (always hard against a first term government) what was Bradbury’s excuse?

    Will the ALP abolish Lindsay it it doesnt vote correctly this time? Shades of Berthold Brecht

  10. I agree Lindsay is a classic sample of the voting group in which Howard has done well. If this group comes back to Labor so will Lindsay. Lindsay in 1996 was seen as a big surprise but the state ALP had lost the western suburbs seats of Penrith and Michinbury in 1988 and Anne Cohen who won Michinbury was hard to shift. Is Possum right that Macpherson will be the Lindsay of 2007?

  11. Barlin’s House of Reps Practice states that Ms Kelly had transferred to the air force reserves at the time of her nomination. (So as a lawyer she didn’t entirely have a fool for a client…)

    I can only guess she was wrongly lulled by that entitlement in the 1969 Act into thinking that covered her as qualified to stand for Fed Parl. But it didn’t because she was in the wrong branch of the forces. All it really did was give her time to campaign without guilt.

    It would have been enough if she’d been standing for most State Parls (eg Queensland Parl Act exempts service in the reserves).

  12. Graeme

    As I mentioned, I heard one of the ABC news ediitors or sub editors say on radio that Bailey may not be able to come back to the ABC as he had declared his allegiance.

    How can a weatherman affect the impartiality of the ABC as I posted before, except maybe say that the lack of rain is due to Howard policies.

    As for Pru I’m sure her job was held open for her by Howard, with her replacement not being announced until she was confirmed in her seat.

  13. Graeme, the relevant point about Lindsay #1 is that Kelly took her seat and was thus duly elected as far as the House was concerned. The election following the voiding of her election was thus a by-election, not a supplementary or special election. Presumably if the election had been voided before she took her seat, it would not have been a by-election.

    Note, however, that there have been two occasions on which a member died without taking their seats (Howroyd in 1917 and Clasby in 1931), and the elections following were certainly by-elections.

  14. Damian Sloan, O’Fool was just unelectable. If you need any more evidence look at the archives of the SMH to see the article and photo (that photo!) they published on her. Worse, her selection crippled the local party for years. Bradbury had the immigration (2001) and interest rate (2004) scares – both of which played well in Penrith.

    Geoff Robinson, Anne Cohen was not particularly hard to shift. Minchinbury (along with Cessnock) was the real surprise in 1988- Cohen got over the line with the help of an extreme right wing nutter who got >10% – Joe Bryant I think. She had no chance of holding the seat so in a Brechtian move Minchinbury was abolished and she stood for Mulgoa which at least had the ‘pony club’ areas of Orchard Hills and Mulgoa. Labor did itself no advantages by preselecting Diane Beamer ( then wife of Senator Hutchison a leader of the TWU). That choice alone would have been enough to give Cohen another term. Admittedly Beamer was finally elected in 1995 by ~200 votes (and after the tally room was fire bombed).

  15. Oakeshott,

    Do you have a link?

    I always thought the NSW Right didn’t tolerate failure? How come this Bradbury dude gets three goes and has to be shoehorned in for the third go? Whats the inside skinny on this one?

  16. Arbie Jay:

    Eoin Cameron is happily ensconced on ABC Radio in Perth after a term as the Liberal member for Stirling, and given that he interviews pols, does talkback (?) etc I can’t see how Mike Bailey would have problem returning to his old job … unless there are different rules depending on what party you nailed your colours to!

  17. Oakeshott Country, the seat was called Badgerys Creek. Cohen won it in 1991, Beamer won it very narrowly in 1995, and it was abolished and replaced by the much safer seat of Mulgoa in 1999.

  18. Labor held the state seat of Penrith in the recent N.S.W election with a substantial swing to the Labor M.P – Lindsay covers this area.
    I expect David Bradbury will win the federal seat for the ALP.

    Interesting titbit from today’s Weekend Australian: both Liberal and Labor private polling shows Mal Brough’s seat of Longman is in danger of falling to Rudd.

  19. Graham Creed has taken over Mike Bailey’s old job of weatherman on ABC TV Sydney news……Mr Bailey might have to look for a gig on a commercial network.

  20. Sorry Damien, I haven’t lived there for 10 years -so I don’t know why he has been given a third go. If he is supported by the TWU – this and Senator Hutchinson’s influence in the area may be the explanation.

    I doubt if the herald article is on line after 9 years but it sure stuck in my mind – it was a contrast between Kelly, an obviously successful attractive and relatively mature woman who could play up her westie credentials to the nth degree (one local party member told me that she had been sworn in as a member of the house wearing a pair of white trousers and a black thong – very stylish in the west) and O’Toole a nerdy, pale, almost teenage student with a known history of branch manipulation – not someone Penrith could support and probably a worse profile than Tawok in Cook. Yet this was a seat that Labor had to win! The Genius of Sussex Street!

  21. Tom Says:
    Yes, Arbie, damn hard to read bias into the weather report. However, it’s probably a symptom of the present political climate.

    Yes indeed but did you never notice how when he was doing the weather on the 7.00 pm news that the warm fronts almost always moved across from the left hand side of the map.

    I spoke to Richard Alston about this and he agreed that it was mighty suspicious. Pity he had to retire – he was going to investigate the Bureau of Meteorology too.

  22. Re. (79)

    “Labor held the state seat of Penrith in the recent N.S.W election with a substantial swing to the Labor M.P – Lindsay covers this area. I expect David Bradbury will win the federal seat for the ALP. Interesting titbit from today’s Weekend Australian: both Liberal and Labor private polling shows Mal Brough’s seat of Longman is in danger of falling to Rudd.”

    HOW very appropriate then if Rudd shifts Peter into the Aboriginal Affairs ministry :):):) …. we can get the new Minister for this Department to fix up all of the mess which Howard has created in recent weeks/months as well as proper solutions for existing problems too. The Aborigines deserve much better than Howard/Brough.

    Anyone want to comment on how long it will take Rudd to say “sorry”? We already know that a republic is on his agenda, so “sorry” can’t be far behind, especially if Peter gets that ministry …… Julie

  23. Re Lindsay
    I suggest if Labor wins government they’ll win this seat
    it is even possible that they could win lindsay and not win govt.
    a big factor in holding the seat was the personal vote of Jackie
    Kelly which is now gone with her retirement

  24. re Mike Bailey
    it is most likely that Mr Hockey is re elected but like Bennelong or Wentworth he’ll be forced to spend time campaigning in his own
    electorate. I’m sure Mr bailey would maintain his ABC employment if he loses

  25. I never understood why Penrith voters were so enchanted by Jackie Kelly. If a local member who is apparently pro-working-families votes in an anti-working-families act like WorkChoices, then clearly the local member is either in the wrong party, or lying. Having checked out State Election figures, I’ll be pretty surprised if this seat doesn’t shift to the ALP.

  26. Adam # 70

    “Note, however, that there have been two occasions on which a member died without taking their seats (Howroyd in 1917 and Clasby in 1931), and the elections following were certainly by-elections.”

    Is Eddie Ward the only man to have won 2 by-elections for the same seat?

    Was Ward also technically still the sitting member even though he lost East Sydney at the general election? Clasby was declared the winner but didn’t take his seat in parliament.

  27. Just looked through the odds on portlandbet and found ALP $1.36 and LP $2.80 for Lindsay. What I found most interesting was the seat of Greenway, which gave exactly the same odds but in favour of the LP. Given that this seat has a margin of 11.4% I found that rather surprising. You would be lucky to get more than $1.02 on the sitting member for most seats requiring this kind of swing. Are there any locals that can explain this for me?

  28. Yes I think Ward is the only member to win two by-elections for the same seat, or indeed for any seats.

    Members technically cease to be members when the House is dissolved, so Ward was not the member after the election. Although Clasby had not taken his seat he had been declared elected by the returning officer, so when he died a regular by-election was held.

  29. So, the term “sitting member” actually means elected member.

    A sitting member doesn’t need to have take their seat in the parliament.

    Another similar analogy would have been Peter Reith who won the by-election for Flinders following the resignation of Phil Lynch in late 1982. But he never sat in parliament prior to Fraser’s snap DD in Feb 1983, with Reith losing to Bob Chynoweth.

    During the ’83 campaign Reith would have been the “sitting member”.

  30. There are two definitions of “Member of Parliament.” As far as the House is concerned, you only become a member when you take the oath and take your seat. But for administrative purposes you become a member from the declaration of the poll. Thus Reith was a sitting member during the 1983 by-election, by virtue of having won the by-election, but he could not have gone to Parliament House and claimed the privileges of an MP, because he had not taken his seat.

  31. Kev my seat is pretty close to Greenway. I think that in the last election the liberals ran a shocking campaign against the labor candidate because he was a muslim resulting in a win for Louise Markis who I think has support from the Hillsong Church.

    Of course the boundaries have changed since but from what I have heard she has turned out to be a real floparoo of a member.

  32. In reply to Geoff Robinson at # 67 I repost what I posted at Possum’s site with respect to the seat of Mcpherson.

    “…the large intake of voters may itself gradually lead to a change in the margin, but you should take into account that the ALP votes at the Gold Coast state seats in 2007, especially in Robina, were influenced by the adverse reaction to the replacement of Liberal leader Bob Quinn just before the election. Also in the Currumbin seat, the vote was coming off a particularly low base (relativly speaking) in 2004 because of reaction there (then) to both the Tugun bypass route and the ‘Merri Rose affair’.

    Also I do not agree that people who vote Liberal federally but for the ALP at the state level are necessarily swinging voters. They have now voted for Mr Howard 4 times and Mr Beattie 4 times, so they may be splitting their votes, but they are not swinging, in my opinion, anyway.”

    Summarising, I think the ALP has buckleys of winning Mcpherson. As Adam and others have previously pointed out, state voting patterns are not good indicators of federal voting intentions. In any case the higher than average swing to the ALP in the Gold Coast seats at the last state election was in any case largely attributable to very local issues adversely affecting the Liberal vote in 2006, following local issues having adversely affected the ALP vote in 2004, and none of which will be factors in the upcoming federal election.

  33. Graeme, Antony, Adam, others;
    Noting the discussion on disqualification for armed forces types – what’s your thoughts about local government employee’s? I know the candidates handbook says to seek legal advice, but otherwise skirts this issue as it has never been tested in the High Court. I’ve always wondered where the “forgotten tier of government” really does sit.

  34. Thanks for the ‘vote’ Damian. Unless there is a chorus of opposition, I might post again.
    For the record, Oakeshott Country needs to get Senator “Hutchinson’s” ( sic) name correct. I’m fairly certain it’s Hutchins and I believe he was a former Secretary of the TWU and one of the ‘hard men’ of the ALP Right.
    Kelly was entrenched before anyone could react, that is unfortunately the genius of the Rodent and I haven’t heard anyone actually say Kelly was a dud legal officer. And what of Louise Markus in Greenway – the Hillsong MHR – sits just behind the PM in question time – with the Happy Clappers behind her she could be a future cabinet minister at least. “In God We Trust” – just not George W, or the Happy Clappers. Might have to return to the Catholics at this rate!

    When the Liberal women first got hold of these marginal seats they clearly worked harder than most blokes could to hold onto them and in a number of cases pulled well away from Labor, especially in ’04 – e.g. women like Danna Vale in Hughes and Kelly in Lindsay. Howard must have had some say in this ( or rather Janette told him the women would be an advantage) – I’ve heard some research suggests they actually have up to a 3 percentage point advantage over men in male-female contests.

    Howard’s capturing the final Senate seat in Queensland with the mother of all scare campaigns about the second Coalition Senator’s spot being in danger in the 2004 election changed this country’s history, just ask Malcolm Mackerras exactly what happened – he even wrote a letter to Howard about it.
    For some of us this is like a very bad black and white episode of Dr Who, with a Government full of the political equivalent of Daleks and Cybermen giving us Work Choices and many other legislative outrages, especially the ‘pro-terror’ laws.
    If there’s a God in Heaven, pardon the blasphemy, Howard must lose his seat and join Stanley Melbourne Bruce in that ‘tragic’ place belonging to certain ‘class warriors’, as S.M. Bruce was – who tried to get complete power for the Federal government over industrial ‘arbitration’. Where Bruce failed, Howard succeeded and got the High Court to validate his ‘constitutional coup’.
    ‘Crash through or crash’ should be ‘worm your way into the apple and eat it away from within’ in little Johnny’s case.
    That’s what he’s done with the universities in particular. And let’s not forget the Surplus Cyberman Costello. Wouldn’t it be lovely, Abbott and Costello as PM and Treasurer or vice versa – then we could really say the Government’s a farce!

    History may yet record that Howard resurrected the class war, just at a time when independent contracting and consulting is big and the ‘us and them’ mentality was withering – there are more of such small business people than trade unionists in Oz, but to their credit Labor did see this and appointed Dr Emerson from Qld to the Shadow Small Business etc. spokesperson’s job – he ought to be Shadow Treasurer ahead of Swan, but has to content himself with ‘small business’, as he’s a Lefty ( who used to have a thing with Julia) due to the Breakfast Creek mob and the Ludwig Ascendancy and their apparent support for Swan – Kevvie’s probably hated Swan since their school days at Nambour, so ‘my enemy’s enemy is my friend’. Kevvie will need all the intelligent and diligent help he can muster to unseat the Rodent.

    I should have exempted Emerson from my previous diatribe about the Labor Frontbench. There might be a couple of others – Tanya Plibersek’s OK and Roxon is pretty good too. In fact the women are much better than the men generally.

    Oakeshott Country needs one more correction – Mr Taouk changed his name to Towke by deed poll I believe – need to be a bit ‘anglicised’ for the good burghers of ‘the Shire’. Some very conservative people I know live there. He’s not the first person to ‘convert’ from ALP to Libs.

    One has to wonder whether it matters much any more, given Bishop Kev’s ‘climbdowns’ on IR – leaving the existing ‘right of entry’ regime essentially in place is an abomination – and I’m not a union official! Any boss can just ‘cook the books’ and regularly do when they have 24 hours notice of a wage investigation – some aren’t very good at it and still get caught, but for much lesser ‘crimes’.
    And apologies to both ‘Adams’ and thanks Bill for correcting me. Will give up on guessing identities. No doubt Mr Bowe will find me if he needs to.
    Or I’ll be ‘disciplined’ by simply being ignored, which of course is the worst fate of all or just not posted if Bill thinks I’m too boring.

    A political ‘junkie’ like me is wondering about the technicality of the debate re: Kelly’s ‘illegal’ candidature, but I can see how some find this fascinating if Sarah Brightman’s singing on SBS doesn’t turn them on.
    She’s Ok, but this is more fun!

  35. My thoughts are exactly the same as the candidate handbook, get legal advice. I don’t think the issue has never been to the High Court so remains legally open to challenge.

  36. I reckon Ollie hit the nail on the head about Lindsay, when he said issues like housing costs, petrol prices, and child care would swing it back to Labor. And the tougher rules on single parents getting welfare aren’t getting a lot of publicity, but a lot of single mums are very worried about having to find a job with family-friendly hours or high enough wages to fund child care. I don’t think Labor is planning to repeal this change, but the Liberals will get any backlash from it.

    Lindsay would be one of the classic seats where some house prices might be falling, while mortgage payments are rising. A slight interest rate rise could send families out the door. I’m sure Howard’s interest rate promise at the laast election would have won him votes.

    I was interested in a TV current affairs segment earlier this year (can’t remember which program) where they interviewed a family in the outer suburbs who lived in a very big comfortable house, where the parents ran a trade business earning more than $100,000 a year. They looked pretty well off to me, but they were bitterly complaining that they couldn’t make ends meet because of child care costs.

    If people with incomes like that claim they can’t afford child care, or can’t get child care places easily, it’s a big big issue in suburbia. I suspect both sides of policies have significant child care pledges to come in the election.

    BTW I was previously known as “Tony” on this blog, but I notice another “Tony” is making comments too. I actually have no problem with what he’s been saying, and I don’t know whether he was here before me. But to avoid confusion, I’ve changed my name, to something appropriate for the latte set.

  37. Antony Green

    You wrote on another thread that the pattern for issuing of the writs (previous 6 federal elections) may be departed from on this occasion?

    I did not quite understand your explanation, excuse me. Could you help again, please?

    And I was wondering, if the writs were issued on say a Thursday or Friday, would that not make it nigh impossible to impossble for at least those without a driver’s license to get on the roll at all, given that others must send a form through the postal system.

    Thank you

  38. This is the piece, Antony Green

    ‘a few days to sort the writs out is because the State Governors issue the Senate writs, and they need to be found first.*

    However, past practice may not be a good guide this time because of the change in close of rolls.

    The government may issue the writ for the House at once* to fix the date and prevent the State’s delaying the Senate writs in an effort to keep the rolls open’.

    Not sure what ‘found’ implies. Or if the State Governors issue the Senate writs, by what means can the government change the status quo?

    Thanks again

  39. Interesting to note that when Labor were in power at their height in 1990 they had 30 of 51 NSW seats a bastion of their power so it goes without saying that NSW will have to bring Labor crucial seats including Lindsay…the current 21 ALP 27 Coalition 2 Ind shows that Labor really does need seats to go their way in a big way and id say they’ll need seats like Bennelong, Lindsay, Macquarie, Eden Monaro, and Parramatta to cause the Libs trouble…

    While back in 1990 the ALP were ahead on seats in NSW they were far far behind in Victoria with 24 Coalition to 14 ALP seats this has now turned around for them and it is their most successful state with a current lead of 19-18…

    I suspect that QLD and WA will be the States to watch in 2007.
    In 1990 the ALP had the most seats in WA with 8 to 6 while it led in QLD 15-9…thus if Labor can wins seats in WA and enough in QLD it should win…but i doubt Labor will make gains in WA and at best they should accept status quo…the Libs should pick up Swan and Cowan if that happens Rudd will need a landslide to win…and the council amalgamations have hurt Rudd so who knows how much that will prevent him from taking the 4-6 seats he needs if he’s to have a workable majority…

    Lindsay will probably go to Labor but had Kelly stayed on i think the Libs could have saved the seat even though the ALP bloke is a three time loser he could get in on a general swing…i wonder if Kelly will help out the Liberal candidate???

  40. Bradbury and the TWU. . . ?
    Well, here’s a little history. . . ALP control of western Sydney seats / Council is dominated by the NSW Right. BTW, Bradbury wouldn’t know one end of a truck from another, trust me. . . I know 😉 ALP Senator Steve Hutchins is the former NSW State, then Federal President of the ALP if I recollect, and also former Federal Secretary of the TWU. Diane Beamer (former Minister for Western Sydney, former Minister for Fair Trading) the Member for Mulgoa is his former wife, currently married to David Humphries, former State political correspondent for the Sydney Morning Herald. Anyway, I digress. . . To get anywhere on Penrith Council, then progress into NSW or Federal politics, currently one needs to be in bed with the NSW Right, and out here in Western Sydney, that means the bovver boys from the TWU.
    To illustrate by way of example, even though in terms of political alignment they are both from the Right, Bradbury and State Member for Penrith Karyn Paluzzano aren’t on speaking terms. She was effectively shunned on Penrith Council by the men from the ALP. People from the Paluzzano camp were leaking information to the Liberal camp [Mulgoa campaign] camp during the March state election. . . no love lost between Paluzzano and Beamer. . .
    Councillor David Bradbury is a business taxation lawyer for Blake, Waldron, Dawson. Didn’t they draught and ‘legalise’ John Howard’s Work Choices legislation? If so, Mr Bradbury has some ‘explaining’ to do. . . 😉

  41. Crikey Whitey, what I mean is that if the government announces and issues the writs for an election on a Monday with the minimum campaign period, thay have to get all the Governors to issue the Senate writs on the same day. If one of the Senate writ signings was missed, then the Senate election in that state couldn’t be held the same day as the House election, which would stuff everyone. That’s why on past practice the government announces the election between 1 and 5 days before the issue of the writs.

    However, announcing the election but not issuing the writs does not close the rolls. If the government really wanted to make use of the new close of rolls provisions, it could as usual announce the election a few days before the Monday, but issue the House writ at once. This would bring in the new close of roll arrangements and stop the states trying to keep the rolls open by not immediately signing the Senate writs. The only downside for the government is that it would go immediately into caretaker mode, rather than have a few extra days with full powers.

  42. Antony, this hurts my brain to have to consider on a Sunday. But whilst it would be sensible to have the HoR and Senate writs issue on the same day, is it absolutely necessary?
    * the Senate writs can still nominate the same day for close of noms, polling.
    * enrolment is by Division (ie HoR seat). The prohibition on returning officers dealing with ‘late’ claims is measured from the close of rolls for ‘the Division’ – ie the date set in the writ for the HoR.

    Am I missing something? (Colin Hughes cheekily suggested the States could tell their governors to delay the writs but looking at s 102 I’m not so sure).

    Stewart J, on local government officials and federal candidature: who knows? I (and others) are arguing before a senate c’tee tomorrow that the federal bill attempting to override Qld on plebiscites is unconstitutional because it breaches a principle that the core functions of the State can’t be overridden. So there’s a strong argument that our system of local government is just a part of the Crown for each State. After all, they deliver essential services, through state legislated powers, and are dismissible by the same process.

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