Analysis and discussion of elections and opinion polls in Australia
The night before Newspoll: episode two
‘Twas the night before Newspoll, and a new open thread was stirring.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
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345 comments on “The night before Newspoll: episode two”
ON any other news night, I might agree with you totally, but…
This is not just the night before newspoll, it is the night before APEC and background Brand or Product recognition is a pretty low target for a marketer from a press conference from the next PM of Australia
Tonight, Kevin Rein looked a long way away from the next PM of Australia.
The footage is going to get repeated again on all the late night news slots——
There was a brief glimpse of incompetence within the KR camp today, and I hope someone is held accountable before another mistake is made
I was a Liberal party supporter – but can’t be again until they come back to the center.
Dont forget the codes Glen @245. And………action.
Newspoll ALP 59/41 according to Lateline
59%. It’s all over.
Goooo Rudd go Rudd go Rudd go Rudd goooooooo RUDD gooooooooo RUDD.
Just saw it
I AM NOT KIDDING
Mr Squiggle I think most people have switched off of politics completely. I avoid political news like the plague now and I’m mostly interested.
The 6 months of campaigning is just dreadful. The most common comments I hear are “I wish he’d just call it already”. Therefore I doubt K. Rudd looking a little frazzled in an interview is going to do irreperable damage.
DANCE DANCE DANCE DANCE DANCE
Wow. 59-41… even if that’s a 3 point outlier it’s huge :O
Newspoll 59-41 tpp to labour
6 people beat me!
Wow 59 to 41. Not a statistically significant change, but enough to make the govt panic.
Newspoll is a nightmare for the government – 59 – 41 TPP
Holy Crap that was completely unexpected
Glen you best go to bed mate, even you can’t weasle your way out of 59-41 mate, that is devastating. GOOD NIGHT GLEN and GOODBYE JWH.
Holy god. Probably an outlier, but if it’s not… If this is confirmed by other polls, if this happened at an election, there would not be a functional opposition.
That must be a Primary vote back up to 50%
Any predicitions on Shanahan’s headline for 59-41?
I notice Downer is scraping the absolute bottom of the barrel now. Saying Rudd is going around telling people he has already won the election in a landslide.
59/41 2pp – OUCH!
This is will set this site into meltdown. If 59-41 was the result on election day, how many seats would the ALP win?
We ain’t seeing an October election now…..
Take a trip to the nearest strip club Johnny – pronto!
Boy, I am enjoying this!
5 & 9 the Muslim Jockey Klub or bust now…
Hmmm, maybe someone should deliver a pair of brown trousers to Kirabilli House.
PPM 48/37 I think
And right in the middle of APEC, too. The last Morgan was obviously trailer trash.
Possum – this might be the immolation point you speak of. When both Galaxy AND Newspoll are well in excess of 55-45, this means history is in the making.
Will APEC bring these numbers back for the Coalition, or will it make them worse?
No mention of the primary vote
it is statistically significant – a 4% change
No wonder Kerry wore a red tie and made a joke about Michael being an aspirational reporter. It might be an outlier – but what an outlier!
Any news about ambulance making a bee-line to any APEC dinners?
Everybody take a chill pill and lie down. The election was not tonight. It may or may not be called in the next 6 weeks (I thought it would be, given Turnbull’s decision to delay on the pulpmill). Howard may still hold off and go for a mid-December election. And the campaign will still be brutal.
C’mon Glen – tell us it’s just another rogue poll, or do we need to adjust it by 15% because of pro Labor bias?
Well, Rudd better scrap the Kevin07 t-shirts. Looks like were going for a January 19th election.
I think I speak for everyone hear when I plead to Kevin Rudd:
Don’t stuff it up!
ALP 59 41 Coal
Don’t worry, it’s just another rogue poll 🙂
Well, my prediction (at #4) was “56-44, and panic stations for the government”. I am happy to concede my prediction was half wrong. He he he.
Im almost in stitches watching all you poll nerds cheer and celebrate one lousy poll of 2000 people. I think alot of you are setting yourself up for a mighty fall.
I’ve opened a new thread, so I’m closing this one.
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