Morgan: 58.5-41.5

Morgan’s fortnightly face-to-face survey of 1667 voters has Labor significantly widening its two-party lead, from 55-45 to 58.5-41.5. The Coalition primary vote is down from 40.5 per cent to 36.5 per cent, while Labor’s is up from 47 per cent to 49.5 per cent. In all respects, this represents a return to the state of play from the early part of the year after two relatively good results for the Coalition in July, when their primary vote topped 40 per cent for the first time since November.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

439 comments on “Morgan: 58.5-41.5”

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  2. The stockmarket is in near melt down, interest rates are going up percentage points a year, housing affordability is at record lows, and suddenly whether a freaking politician in his own time is shown the sights of New York four years ago after a few beers, is front page news?

    Even if the politician is our future PM, so what?

    Has anyone who has been to Bangkok not visited Patpong Road, anyone been to Amsterdam and not walked the alleys near the railway station, Anyone been to Paris and not visited Montmatre or been to Sydney and not strolled down Kings Cross?

    And who is the accuser? A sometime drunk with an anger management problem and an unbelieveable capacity for hypocracy.

    Lets start talking about the mutilated bodies in Iraq, the perversion of our justice system, the repressive industrial law regime, the abrogation of our obligations to our Indigenes and the thwarted aspirations of our youth and struggling families, then when we’ve sorted out those issues and pilloried the bastards responsible, then maybe we can afford to waste time on cheap miserable shots.

    But cheap miserable shots are all the Tory rabble have left after their destruction of our democracy, and they don’t come cheaper or more miserable than Glenn Milne.

  3. Four years ago. And invited to strip club overseas.

    RESIGN………………………………………………………

    And I’m not talking about Rudd.

  4. Well put Fulvio. I hope the cartoonists pick the most obvious image… the government, splattered with Iraqi blood and ordure from AWB to kids overboard, pointing the finger and asking ‘where’s the morality?’

    And from Glenn Milne of all people. It takes your breath away.

    I’m gonna turn off the blogs until Newspoll comes out. I might sprain a finger.

  5. 399
    Richard Jones Says:
    August 19th, 2007 at 11:37 am

    Richard, my ex-boss (until 3/12 years ago) was meeting with the then deputy prime minister every month. Your assumptions about the boring/clean living style of JWH are wrong and it is apparently well known by the media. I think the reason that the libs backed off the personal attack on Latham was because of the threat of this being publicised.

    Tom.

  8. If you think politicians from other countries don’t go to strip clubs, you’d be seriously mistaken. What do you say if some of the diplomats for say… France… or Japan… or Italy.. are going to one? “Sorry Mr Takanawa, that will offend the morals of the Australian people”. Especially when, clearly, the only people in Australia that would be offended would be a very small minority of god-bothering prudes?

    I’m stuggling to grasp how stupid any liberal muckraker could be to bring up this story. It blows out of the water the criticism that Rudd is just a younger version of Howard.

    This will only help Rudd.

  10. There is a reason why Canberra is the porn capital of Australia. I wonder when Milne was last out in Fyshwick (where sex is a light industry).

  11. No name supplied. But the ex-boss is not gullible and also was surprised as, like the rest of us, did not think JWH would do anything that exciting.

  13. Come on, BxTom, don’t leave us hanging here. You can leave the identifying details out, but give us the basic story.

    Aww, pretty please.

  14. To quoth Sondeo:
    “Yes,this is the same Karen Chijoff who was defeated 55%-36% on primary votes at the last state election in NSW in 2007.That certainly says she has electoral appeal doesn’t it.!
    A prelude to the vote she is going to get for the PM in Lindsay.?I hope so .”
    …………………………………………………………………………………………..
    After analysing the ABC NSW election web site for 2003 and 2007 results I found the Liberal vote [Mulgoa] as 2003 Chris Bourne’s 27.53% and 2007 Karen Chijoff 35%. Doing the maths I came up with a gain of 7.47%. Not bad considering Mulgoa had nil Liberal Party resources, and she was up against (at the time) the sitting Minister for Western Sydney, Fair Trading, and an assistant minister’s role. Rumour has it she did all her own fundraising, door-knocking, and volunteer letterbox distribution. Judging by the amount of union and ALP material (both direct mail and indirect) arriving in my letterbox on an almost daily basis I reckon it was something like $20K vs $200K – 10 : 1 advantage ALP. Plus the advantage of ministerial office staff, and a postage allowance. Just my 2c worth. . .
    David Bradbury’s people were up at Glenmore Park shops for a very brief period today with a “Your Rights at Work” petition. They were distributing the orange Union made-in China shopping bags. Shoppers appeared disinterested.

  16. ‘Nuther Lindsay voter, Mulgoa is not exactly working class. In fact some of the richest in Penrith valley live in Mulgoa. In fact a few years ago it ranked as one of the leafier suburbs of Sydney along with Vaucluse etc, going by ATO statistics.

  17. For those interested and for what it is worth these are the current newspaper polls on Rudd’s night out. Bearing in mind that these things can [or used to be able to] be manipulated by supporters of one side or the other.

    Will Kevin Rudd’s strip club visit change your vote?
    YES 15% (203 votes) NO 84% (1147)

    Do you care that Kevin Rudd visited a strip club?
    YES 15% (215 votes) NO 84% (1146 votes)

    Does this incident change your opinion of Rudd?
    Yes – It makes him seem more fun and human 37% (875 votes)
    Yes – I used to respect him, but not now 24% (573 votes)
    No – Who cares? He wasn’t opposition leader 38% (891 votes)
    Total votes: 2339 This poll started on Saturday, August 18, 2007

    Do you think Kevin Rudd’s behaviour will hurt him in the polls?
    Yes 40% (742 votes)
    No 59% (1088 votes)
    Sum votes: Total votes: 1830 votes so far
    This one was 25% 75% last night so it has changed a bit during the day.

  18. Channel 9 on-line poll
    Will Kevin Rudd’s strip club admission affect your vote?
    Yes 27209
    No 17719

    Now obviously 45,000 people haven’t voted on the Channel 9 web site in a single day. I’m not sure how they present their figure but I believe the inflate them deliberately to discourage manipulators.

    The ratio of yes to no is quite different to the newspaper polls – maybe reflecting the audience of the Channel 9 Morning show with Laurie Oakes or simply all nonsense. I have witenessed Liberal supporters manipulating the vote on-line, in real time, to favour the Govt once before. But I think they (channel 9) have changed their system now.

    By the way Rudd I thought put on a very good performance with Oakes this morning. At last taking ownership of the Labor constructed economy that we now have and making the comparison of Keatings 17% and Howard’s 22%.

  20. If there was a negative story about Howard on the Sunday program what side of politics do you think would be predominantly watching and voting? The same with this poll.

  21. Nutha Lindsay Voter Says:
    August 19th, 2007 at 2:34 pm

    As representative of the population spread Mulgoa is insignificant.At the last federal election Labor polled 60%+ primary vote in the suburbs of St Marys,ST Marys North,Oxley Park etc.

    An interesting aside, I have emailed and personally asked Ms Karen Chijoff during one of her walk abouts about the chances of the federal Government giving the electors of Lindsay a referendum on the location of Nuclear Power stations and referendum on WorkChoices.She refused to answer the email and just stammered something about nothing to do with her and I need to contact the relevant government minister.
    The Liberal party is trying to put someone in my electorate who is nothing but a yes person for the PM.

    David Bradbury has answered all questions and emails sent.No wonder the Liberals will lose this seat if the person who they want to represent cannot answer relevant questions raised by its electors

  22. Was Downer the source of the stripper night out leak? KR thinks he might be. Looks to me that the non reported Morgan Poll has started a panic.

  24. 417
    Gary Bruce Says:
    August 19th, 2007 at 3:19 pm
    BxTom – what has stopped this story emerging and do you think it will?

    The boss stated that is was apparently unspoken policy in the media not to publicise personal peccadillos, i.e. the relationship between Packer and Buttrose, Chifley etc. I think when the libs push too far – and there is no level to which JWH won’t stoop – it will come out. I am convinced that the sudden cessation of personal attacks on Latham last election was because of this.

    Tom.

  25. The channel 9 interview – a good job by Rudd.

    http://sunday.ninemsn.com.au/sunday/political_transcripts/article_2285.asp

    The issue begging debate in the public arena is American style dirt politics which this incident cleary is a part of. It is old news and is no doubt part of series.

    The Government has a taxpayer funded dirt unit whose sole function is to dig any piece of dirt for use during election time. If this is not a corruprtion of democracy I dont know what is.

  26. The Brisbane Courier Mail just rang – they are publishing my letter in tomorrows paper. I made a comparison between Rudd now developing some color to his character and Howard addressing parliament drunk.
    :] Look for the name Debbie Chow [not my real name – which gets too much hate mail for my letters].

  27. I have a letter in the SMH tomorrow too but it’s a light-hearted one pertaining to having a few drinks too many. They tend never to pick my hard-hitting letters.

  28. But Mr Snowdon, who went to the club with Mr Rudd, said reports Mr Rudd was warned for touching the dancers are rubbish.

    “It’s just not true, it’s a beat up, someone’s creative imagination and there’s nothing in it,” he said.

    “This is just a giant beat-up coming from a journalist who was himself the subject of some concern because of his public display of drunkenness on national television.”

    Meanwhile Mr Rudd has suggested Foreign Minister Alexander Downer is behind a smear campaign against him. When asked if he thought a smear campaign had begun, he said, “It’s a question you should put to Mr Downer and his staff”.

    Mr Downer has refused to comment.

    http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/08/19/2008977.htm

    Looks as though another big scoop from the libs will turn out to be a scoop of the brown smelly stuff and it will backfire.

    Tom.

  29. Here a fairly relevant line, from the Govt Gazette:

    “Mr Rudd went to the club, *which is a well-known haunt of UN diplomats and journalists*, with New York Post editor Col Allan and Northern Territory Labor MP Warren Snowdon. ”

    Im sorry, is this a story? “Man goes to pub, shock”?

    I know a few Downer stories from ex-DFAT mates. You can bet others know more. That clown better watch himself.

  30. Recent stories about ADF personnel getting drunk and impersonating KKK may hurt Rudd. How can he defend his own actions if he condemns theirs? By the same token, how can Howard attack Rudd, if he has defended their actions as larrikinism?

  32. Sideline Eye Says:
    August 19th, 2007 at 6:22 pm
    Looks like Howard has wedged himself on the nuclear issue.

    Actually the story says that Vaille is opposed to the Liberals building such facilities, he doesn’t mention stopping private developers (financed by the government so that they make a huge profit at taxpayer expense of course) from building them. This is also the JWH angle. Remember the private investors of a couple of months or so ago….

    Never under estimate the sneakiness of Howard.

    Tom.

  33. BxTom, I’m not quite sure how “There will be no nuclear power stations or waste storage facilities on the north coast or anywhere else in Australia if the coalition government is re-elected this year,” somehow still allows private developers from building them.

  34. Open message to the Liberal Party

    One reason why you are losing is because the ALP candidates are out there answering emails while Liberals are a sleep at the wheel.

    The ALP candidate in my seat went to great length to explain ALP policy, while the Liberal MP is clearly very busy for he is never seen in the seat, and appears to do nothing.

    Liberals don’t wait until Election day to try and get me to vote for you, why not try before Election day, well you have had years and really what I have seen from my local MP is nothing sort of pathetic.

    Maybe I’m too use to being in a Marginal seat, but even when I lived in a safe ALP seat the MP was at least around doing something.

    Sadly in my seat the Liberal is nowhere to be found, in fact he hasn’t even written for the Age lately I wonder why, can’t he comment on Work choices or Interest rates or rent or home affordability.

    Gee I would love to see him get his backside kicked, at least then he will have to get off it for a while.

    For some reason people rate him highly, what just because he has written a few articles for the Age, just because he has criticised Howard o my what about being a good local MP first, does he even know where his seat is.

  36. Mulgoa voter wrote: ‘Nuther Lindsay voter, Mulgoa is not exactly working class. In fact some of the richest in Penrith valley live in Mulgoa.’

    Either “Mulgoa voter” is completely ignorant, or actually lives outside the area. The actual township Mulgoa attracts 1,000 odd voters. House prices in Mulgoa township reflect, generally speaking, average Penrith prices. You’re referring to acreage properties few and sparse between. That leaves approx. another 44,000 voters in the rest of the electorate coming from diverse corners such as St Marys, Colyton, St Clair (strong Labor) to Glenmore Park (weak Labor) and villages such as Mulgoa, Badgerys Creek, Luddenham, Wallacia (weak Liberal). Please feel free to visit this ABC link to better acquaint youself with your own electorate:
    http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nsw/2007/guide/mulg.htm

  37. IMO Labor will pick up Lindsay easily; but even if by some miracle the Libs retain it, I won’t have to see the previous bogan swanning around my kids’ school in her ugg boots like she owns the place.

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