Morgan’s fortnightly face-to-face survey of 1667 voters has Labor significantly widening its two-party lead, from 55-45 to 58.5-41.5. The Coalition primary vote is down from 40.5 per cent to 36.5 per cent, while Labor’s is up from 47 per cent to 49.5 per cent. In all respects, this represents a return to the state of play from the early part of the year after two relatively good results for the Coalition in July, when their primary vote topped 40 per cent for the first time since November.
I suspect Steven is building an ark. I expect when the Labor flood arrives and he has to choose two pollsters, one won’t be Morgan.
I hope that this signals a swing back to growth in ALP support. If it is a slowing in the swing towards the Liberals then it makes for a spectacularly close election.
What’s your take Nostrodamus?
maybe ‘soft’ liberal support.
Some polling done during the latest costello-gate i’m guessing.
Howard is cactus.
mein gott.
Well, it may mean little to the election, but it means this right now: there goes the steady “comeback” / “extrapolation” narrative.
This goes to momentum – and thats a body blow for Team Rodent. Expect increasing shrill, nonsensical state-baiting.
After all, its working so well 😉
How bad was the “Joh for PM” push for the Coalition in the 1987 election?
There’s some analysis here.
http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?id=247
So, adjusting for the usual Morgan face-to-face wackiness, the Coalition is on 41.5% and Labor 44.5%, even closer than the Nielsen (but not as close as the Government’s own research has found). Obviously, Mr Howard’s jibes about Rudd’s lack of experience are resonating in the electorate, and the recent troubles on the stock exchange will only heighten people’s doubts. And then there’s Labor’s IR stance, which will do great damage to the economy if implemented, especially in light of these recent events, and about which the Sydney Morning Herald’s editorial had this to say this morning:
“If Labor’s industrial relations policy looked dangerous a week ago, it looks much more so today. The last thing Australia needs is a wages breakout driving inflation. Yet that is just what the party’s industrial relations policy threatens.”
Wow. A rare display of sanity for the Herald. Let’s hope it’s contagious.
Ok, I guess we can sum up that Morgan was in a lucid state for the previous two weeks but has now reverted back to its previous state of insanity. I wouldn’t really want to waste much time with this.
Yes Steven, another great result for John Howard and his Liberals.
This shows that he’s closing in on Rudd and by polling day will be reigning supreme.
Just can’t get enough of these great polls for the Liberal Party.
Keep them coming.
Pure arsebiscuits.
Or maybe this poll is different to the last because they interviewed a different 1600 odd people. Some of you people read way too much into these polls.
So the rationale behind your adjustment of the Morgan results Steven is to just randomly slash points off?
And where do you pluck your assertions about anything Howard saying resonating in the public?
Should I assume you’re attempting comedy with your posts?
I’m ready to assume that the polls are two or so points out… but to extrapolate that even a 55/45 split shows that Howard is resonating is a bit much surely you have to admit
I certainly expect this poll is erring on the high side but the Morgan F2F is now trending away from the govt over the last three months.
Steven – your insights are unique and somewhat unrelated to reality.
If this is followed by a poor news poll is there still time left for Costello to take over the wheel – would he want to now?
Maybe the people polled are having a ‘joke’ on the PM?
Steven is adjusting for the undervalued National Party vote…add 3 percent on the Libs have around about 40-41 and take 3 off Labor and they are about 45-46 thus it just shows how unrepresentative Morgan is always undervaluing the Nat vote this is not just something out of the blue Morgan regularly polls the Nats at 3 or less than 2% of the vote…
Morgan is the most pro-labor bias poll as Galaxy is for the Coalition…take this poll with a grain of salt.
I said on the other thread that this poll is in perfect agreement with the Morgan ph poll last Friday. I’ll wait for Newspoll before confirming, but at this stage it looks as if the ACN on Monday was an outlier. Labor appears to have gone up since the interest rate decision.
This is going to turn into a rout ala 75 and 77. Ordinary Australians want out, a new start – ” we’re over him and them” – and are prepared to take that punt with Kevin from Queensland. It will soon be time to revisit those “safe” and “fairly safe” coalition seat lists. OK, its only Morgan, and its only “face to face”, and “only” 1677 voters – but wait for the next Newspoll. After this week the ALP 2pp will be back to around 57/58 and leadership speculation will re-ignite. Whether the election is held in Oct or Nov – the result will be the same. A December election will simply add another couple of points to the ALP’s vote – the punters don’t like being treated as Primeministerial playthings.
Where are all the people claiming this to be a statistical outlier, or are only swings to the liberals statistical outliers?
I think Morgan F2F moved into accordance with the other polls due to the expect to win number; maybe people feel a bit sorry for Howard when interviewed F2F. This probably offsets the anti-country bias. Before July, Morgan F2F was 2% more pro-Labor than others; since, the fall in Labor’s vote in Morgan F2F has concided with a big increase in Labor’s expect to win.
49.5 to 36.5 primaries. There is no reassurance in this poll for the government. They would be gratified with these figures 2pp. I expect their mood is one of pessimism and alarm.
When there’s a movement toward the ALP, instead of statistical outliers you get statistical out-liars. See above.
Glen you make a good point. I believe that NONE of the polls accurately represent the vote from the bush. Trust me I live in a safe National electorate and you dont dare mention the word “labor” around here.
So Glen, if Galaxy is pro-Coalition how much should we adjust that? I don’t bother adjusting Galaxy. I just look at it as one poll, indicating one data group.
To extrapolate any poll recently as showing Howard is resonating is blind faith. Why not just look at it as a way to see where your party is giong wrong.
Out of interest – how high would the AP 2pp have to be on a morgan poll before you’d consider it a poor sign for the govt? Regardess of systmatic bias the Morgan F2F poll are averaging about 8-10% higher than in 2004, 2005 and mid 2006.
There is zero chance of the ALP getting a 58%+ 2pp but a 55%+ is looking possible now.
One thing which has been puzzling me in terms of positioning/”framing” of the political debate, and Glen you may be able to throw some light upon this, is that:
the leaked Crosby/Textor polling seemed to be indicating that what the Govt. should be doing is focusing the political discussion onto its two areas of strength – the economy and national security. When the Govt. discussed any other issues (university funding etc during the budget), even if the programs they were implementing themselves played out positively, they were fighting on the ALPs (or perhaps neutral) territory. They needed to actually focus debate onto topics of Govt. strength.
However, the Mersey Hospital and council amalgamation issues in no way do this. Do you think that the Govt. is possibly wasting precious time with these issues?
The Crosby/Textor advice also included picking fights with the (Labor) states. Hence blaming them for the interest rate rise.
Marco I live in Grayndler and I go for weeks without meeting a soul who doesn’t grimace at the mention of the PM’s name. Does that make a flying fart’s difference to any of the polls? Of course not. It’s one electorate.
See the previous thread for a discussion of the so called undervaluing of the National vote. Please God don’t make Adam come in here and go through it all again.
Tick tick tick.
Also see Queensland councils and I read some yawn-worthy story and saving roads from State governments too. I think we all knew the Coalition strategy long before the ‘leaked’ Crosby/Textor advice. It was transparent as anything.
I agree BV…but the point is Howard is finding it so difficult to find an issue which Rudd will oppose him on that he’s having to pick fights with the States and construct a narrative that if Rudd gets in he wont stand up for the Australian people with Labor premiers now who knows whether this would actually happen or not we’ll see but…
I’ll tell you one thing the Coalition has to pound Labor on their IR reforms that they would endanger the economy…the Coalition has stayed on message in Question Time but none of it gets in the media because of the Costello saga which blew up and thus cost the Coalition because they had Rudd by the short and curlies i mean with his stunt of a rent policy that he lied to Rosanna Harris now that’s out of the news and no media outlet has mentioned that since…now i think Howard has to bring out a good housing policy that will do more than Rudd’s and quite frankly if the Government doesnt start bringing out policy they are done for…
The Coalition BV have had just about every policy blocked or hampered in some way as illustrated by the 10b Water plan thank you Mr Bracks…but the fact is they are void of policy and need to start bringing stuff out and reiterating their initiatives from the budget or else Rudd will keep going round and saying the Government isn’t governing…the point id like to make is while Rudd makes this claim, he hasn’t brought out any ‘detailed’ policy on any issue there is no fine print at all…
Also BV if the Coalition is going to have any chance of holding on they need to pump the ALP’s inexperienced front bench have ads out showing how many years in Parliament and how long as shadow ministers because at the moment the focus is on Rudd and people like him so they’ve got to start hitting on Garrett, Roxon and co.
I’ll be the Coalition hopes the jitters on the ASX keep up banking on the fact people wont want to change government in uncertain times…
[The Crosby/Textor advice also included picking fights with the (Labor) states. Hence blaming them for the interest rate rise.]
Yeah, I know. But surely you need to actually pick fights which focus debate onto your areas of strength (and I suppose interest rates would have been useful in this sense had it been better executed)
Seems we are still not listening to Mr Howard and his cheer squads relentless rubbish.
Howard missed the boat about 8 months ago and i am afraid he is not that good a swimmer.
Does anybody live in a marginal seat where their vote actually counts in the HoR instead of just the Senate?
I’m in Melbourne Ports, technically its marginal but it will never go to the Libs when the Greens poll 15% of the vote.
Glen the stuff about the Rudd front bench is nonsense.
Read this quote from a transcript of an interview with John Howard on the Today Show in 1997:
Leibmann: This it it… the Ministry that’s going to restore public confidence in your leaderiship, in your government and get you to the next election.
PM: Well I don’t believe there’s a lack of public confidence in either, certainly not… it’s a very strong team…
Leibmann: You’ve had to dig pretty deep though, Mark Vaile last Friday as a humble back bencher, four years experience in the Parliament… and young Mr Thomson… he’s only been in Paliament…
PM: Well that doesn’t matter. I remember a bloke who entered Parliament in 1974 who was Treasurer in 1977, so there’s nothing unusual about that.
The Prime Minister himself argues that time in Parliament and front bench experience is of no relevance.
Im in Hindmarsh and I voted for the ALP in 2004, so I like to think of myself as one of the 108 votes that gave an ALP win here in 2004.
I’m *just* in Sydney, so close to being Wentworth.
[I’ll bet the Coalition hopes the jitters on the ASX keep up banking on the fact people wont want to change government in uncertain times…]
Yes, Glen, I bet they do. More carnage on the exchange! More people’s super investments slashed! More misery. I guess that beats hoping like hell for another massive terrorist attack to scare the punters back to grandpa’s arms.
And by all means let’s get the debate back on IR. That’s how your lot shot themselves in the foot to start with.
I live in Eden-Monaro. I’d assume my vote is pretty important. So far I’ve received a lot more mail from the ALP than from Mr Nairn. The only mail I received from Gary Nairn was some lame letter claiming Mike Kelly can’t pronounce the name of the seat.
None outlining the Coalition’s view for the future, none welcoming me to the electorate etc.
They are trying to push their perceived economic strength with the “safe pair of hands” line regards the stockmarket volatility. Though, on balance, their campaign is overwhelmingly negative. Fear, smear, uncertainty, doubt, going aggro on states’ rights.
Why not more statements from them of what they can do for people and the country, how they can help? I guess they have given up on positively campaigning since last election’s debacle of promising record low interest rates.
I look forward to the debate on IR. The ‘economic ‘ case against Labor is bollocks. With a few tweaks, they are essentially proposing the same system which we had over the boom i.e. the pre-workchoices system, heavily based in EBAs, with awards merely a safety net, wage rises in exchange for productivity gains, same one we had until 18 months ago.
And I can tell you some of the ‘tweaks’ arent popular in union town either eg secret ballots.
AWAs were practically irrelevant pre-workchoices, as they were subject to a no-disadvantage test and few employers wanted them – so no great difference of loss there.
Workchoices now threatens to take the boom away from the punters. Its not about economic reform – its just an illiberal union bashing measure. Its no surprise were’ seeing productivity stall.
This is why we’re seeing business run an irrelevant and misleading campaign based on pre 1993 ideas of IR. Becuase the economic argument for Workchoices is not only weak, its an economic negative for the government.
Bring it on, I say. If this the coalition strongsuit, they’re rooted.
Yes well crispy i dont think 330,000 people are complaining about having a job…you cant have a mortgage or pay the rent if you dont have a job and whether you like it or not Rudd’s IR policy will cause a rise in unemployment its just plain dumb to have a policy that brings us back pre-1993 to patent bargaining its a joke…i know some people will vote against the Coalition because of workchoices but the fact is have wages gone down…no they’ve risen…have there been mass sackings no….has there been jobs growth yes.
I know its a negative for the Government Crispy you’re right but its not a bad policy i just think Howard should have managed it alot better with a fairness test to begin with…he was just silly not to do it and instead gave alot of ammo to the Unions…
From having read some of the medium-term brokerage outlooks I don’t think there is going to be massive volatility on the ASX over the next 6-8 week period. Some ups and some downs but not enough to worry the average punter (as opposed to day traders or fund managers)
Live in Canberra (the electorate) so HoR vote doesn’t mean too much. Mind you we have already been getting some Mike Kelly TV ads for ALP in Eden-Monaro. Because Canberra is a safe seat, we tend to get more Eden-Monaro ads on tele here.
Glen, as has been said before, most voters couldn’t give a rats about the front bench. Anyway, how much of an asset is Abbot & Costello? This is about Rudd vs Howard.
I think we all wish we were in a marginal seat…we’d get more attention…more infrastructure…more investments…being in a practically safe seat like Melbourne Ports gets you jack squat lol
Seeing Nostro is missing in action let me just say on his behalf what a great result this poll is for the government. Take off 3% from the ALP vote for the usual bias, another 10% because it was a face to face and another 25% because we all know that conservatives don’t answer polls in August as they all fly away for winter and another 10% just because we feel like it and I reckon Howard will win 100% of the seats.
It’s pattern bargaining Glen, please get your lies right.
Classic Nostro…Paul couldn’t have said it better myself…
I’ll try Stunkrat but my statements are not lies…
Only Kevin Rudd has lied last week i think he should apologise to Rosanna Harris what do you think Stunkrat and by the way what electorate are you in???