ACNielsen: 55-45

The Fairfax papers today carry their monthly ACNielsen poll, which shows a narrowing of Labor’s two-party lead from 58-42 to 55-45. Labor’s primary vote is down from 49 per cent to 46 per cent, while the Coalition is up from 39 per cent to 41 per cent. The movement most likely represents a correction from a somewhat excessive result last time. Now please, for the love of Christ, no more polls until next Tuesday …

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

558 comments on “ACNielsen: 55-45”

Comments Page 10 of 12
1 … 9 10 11 12

  2. Again Strop curses himself for trying to engage Glen with rational debate: it is impossible to temper a one eyed person. I give up.

  5. Adam,

    Love your site (particularly the new pictures…)

    Are you planning on doing any more polling place maps for other seats that may be at risk in the election? Examples may be Sturt, Cowper, Dickson, Paterson, etc.

  6. on 4pm news SEA FM
    Local councillor and businessman announced he would run as independent in coming Fed Election

    I wonder who he would preference?

    🙂

  7. Quiz question: which is the only federal electorate named directly after a person who never set foot in Australia?

    (I don’t mean people who have seats indirectly named after them, like Lord Sydney or Queen Adelaide)

  8. ps flying back from lovely perth (it does look glorious at this time of year)
    got chance to read some rather juicy tidbits re strats and angles(read wedges)
    most of J-HOs current strategem is heavily guided by ‘rovism”
    so i believe the next stage (3?) will involve some form of swiftboating
    imvho

  9. Booth-mapping is very time-consuming and hard on the eyes, so I have stopped at the 25 most marginal government seats plus a few others. I may do some more later but other projects are demanding some time.

  10. If Gus is right Adam your going to have a lot of work to do on your seat by seat analysis.

    How long before an election can a person nominate for a seat ?

    Flooding marginals with pro-Coalition name brand Indy’s eh . I wonder if that would work, particularly if the voters knew what it was about.

  11. Tony

    You forgot to mention libel.

    This is a published document. It is written, for all to see, as opposed to a spoken outburst, which is slander. There is a difference. Remember stop writs?

  12. So much for the myth about the Unions bankrolling the ALP.

    “Mr McAlpine says his 2004 campaign cost about $100,000 and he cannot afford to do it again.

    “I’ve withdrawn the nomination because when I look at how much money it takes to run, and there’s no funding from head office, it’s very difficult,” he said.

    “It’s getting like America, you’ve got to be a millionaire to run, even to lose. Last time it cost $55,000 plus I forwent a year’s salary. Probably cost about $100,000.” ”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/08/14/2004636.htm

  13. Strop
    must confess it was that paragon of virtue Mrs Gusface driving the sporgs somewhere heard it on local radio
    i was otherwise engaged (terminal etc etc) and am currently trying to digest being informed of something that i had just read about
    talk about prescient

  14. I thought Liberals for Forrests was one way the libs tried to get more of the vote by running a pretend caring lib party that directed votes back to the main lib party.

    I also seem to remember both sides accusing each other of doing the same in recent state elections where an “independent” candidate would run whose sole purpose was to dilute the opposition vote and direct votes through preferences back to the main party.

  15. Arbie Jay, that’s a complete misreading of LFF – the Liberals hate them, and amended the Electoral Act last year to try and stop them using the word Liberal. Their preferences cost Larry Anthony his seat in 2004.

  16. Adam Says:
    August 14th, 2007 at 8:50 pm
    Arbie Jay, that’s a complete misreading of LFF – the Liberals hate them, and amended the Electoral Act last year to try and stop them using the word Liberal. Their preferences cost Larry Anthony his seat in 2004.

    And in Alfred Cove, Wollard defeated the Sitting Liberal Member Doug Shave in 2001, mainly over his invilvement in the Finance Brokers Scandal (he was Consumer Affairs Minister) and the protection of Old Growth Forrests in the South West of the State.

  17. The forum on SBS with Maxine & Howard and Bennelong crowd was interesting. The swinging voters and even some of the liberal supporters seemed to be swayed towards Labor. If any Bennelong people were watching [and I am sure many were]. The thing that turned them I believe was the polished performance and explanation of Maxine. In the end one so called ‘swinging voter’ (though I suspect he was a pretty much liberal) ended up saying he might not vote Labor because he was worried about a landslide.

    In the end I think the forum actually helped Maxine quite a bit.

    I wonder how Howard and Rudd will go together.

  18. Thanks Adam, Frank

    My apologies, I guess I was being a bit too cynical without checking.
    Now you mention it I do see to remember the action you mention.

    I think back in the 80’s and 90’s Clyde Camerons son tried to register the name “Clyde Cameron Labor Party” but this was blocked by court action by the labor party?. So as you say it was surprising that Libs for Forrests got approval.

  19. Well….

    The business ads havent yet been debunked as bullshit – as they shortly will be (sorry guys, no party running at this election is proposing pre-Keating compulsory arbitration. Thanks for the irrelevant study wasting our time)

    The next round of anti-workchoices ads will be even more effective than the last

    The anti-nuclear stuff hasnt even begun.

    And any ‘Rovism’ aint that clever if we’re already gleaning it on the net this far from election day.

  20. Good program of “Insight” tonight.

    Started off looking a bit stacked against Maxine, but after a few live switches to Howard, who come off as evasive, uncertain and nervous, the momentum swung back more in Maxine’s favour.

    I reackon she is a bloody good chance to turf out Howard. The polls would be pretty well spot on “at the moment”. Still a way to go yet.

    Wear the old bugger down and dispose of him, Max.

  22. After attending the ALP Colton sub branch meeting tonight (in federal electorate of Hindmarsh) I can tell you that the ALP’s internal polling in SA closely resembles that of the published AC Neilsen SA polling. ie an SA 2PP of > 60% for the ALP.

  24. Drop By at 11.33 am tried to inform us as to the source of the betting moves before the Nielsen poll was released.

    No, two bets of $30k and $12k by one punter would not cause the betting agencies to react the way they did with that one agency temporarily suspending betting.

    Proven by the fact that the same punter decided to back the coalition properly by betting $100k the next day after the ACN poll without any dramas whatsoever.

    The fact that the coalition are favoured to win the most number of seats yet labor are favourites to win the election is not unusual according to mathematics of wagering probability.

    It means that labor have got a strong chance of winning seats that liberal are favourites in.

    Eg. Seat 1 ALP 1.01 / LIB 101.0. Seat 2 LIB 1.99 / ALP 2.01 Seat 3 LIB 1.99 / ALP 2.01.

    LIB are favoured to win the most number of seats, however their probability of winning the election is approx 1 in 4 whereas the ALP is 1 in 2.

  25. Re Gusface : Coalition setting up Independent’s in marginal seats – Rabbit theory.

    The Coalition have 34 seats it will looking to protect, not just the obvious first 16 as some have suggested. The Coalition has-

    13 seats with a 2PP margin of 0.1-2.9 percent;

    10 with a 2PP margin of 3.0-5.9 percent;

    and 11 seats with a margin of 6.0-7.9.

    That is, 34 seats with a margin under 8.0 percent. The majority of these seats are in States currently indicating a strong pro-Labor swing (NSW 10; Qld 7; Vic 6; SA 5;Tas 2; WA 3; NT 1)

    To set up pro-Coalition Independent’s who are ‘locals’ in order to protect the Government MP in all these seats would be an expensive and pretty fruitless enterprise I would have thought.

    Labor can/could/might counter this kind of move with a preference deal with FF (for example) where their presence was strong enough in 2004 to influence the outcome.

    The ‘up to 5.0 %’ difference you speculate Gus could be countered by FF preferences in SA for example, where they polled reasonable primary votes in 2004 in Boothby (2.98), Hindmarsh (2.25), Kingston (5.64), Makin (4.92), Sturt (4.78) and Wakefeild (4.43).

    An interesting theory, nonetheless.

  26. Very good NJB – Edward Gibbon Wakefield

    There is no law against the use of the words Liberal or Labor by other parties – as well as the LFF we have the Democratic Labor Party, we had the Rex Connor Labor Party a few years ago (used by his son Rex Connor Jr) and the Curtin Labor Party which was a front for the LaRouche cult. Last year the government changed the Electoral Act so that all parties which do not currently have parliamentary representation have to apply to be re-registered. George Brandis made it clear at the JSCEM hearings which discussed this that the purpose was that when LFF applied to re-register, the Liberal Party would try to block the use of the word Liberal. I don’t know how this has progressed since then. Is LFF registered with the AEC for this election?

  28. Adam – you’ve stumped me. Which seat IS named after a complete foreigner? I can only guess Murray, but that’s only indirectly the name of a colonial office bigwig.

    Thinking about this, for the first time I’ve realised the irony of ‘Dollar Sweetie’ Peter Costello representing the seat of ‘Enry ‘Iggins, the radical liberal who gave us the living wage…

  29. Adam Says:
    August 14th, 2007 at 9:24 pm

    There is no law against the use of the words Liberal or Labor by other parties – as well as the LFF we have the Democratic Labor Party, we had the Rex Connor Labor Party a few years ago (used by his son Rex Connor Jr) and the Curtin Labor Party which was a front for the LaRouche cult.

    And at the last Federal Election here in WA there was the New Country Party, which was set up by the Ex WA One Nation MPs Frank Hough & Paddy Embery.

    Wikipedia Entry Here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Country_Party

    Pandora Archived Website here: http://pandora.nla.gov.au/pan/43495/20040927-0000/www.newcountryparty.org.au/index.html

  32. Someone raised Swan’s assistance to a Democrat candidate (old news, yes). Arguably that kind of assistance is electoral bribery IF preferences are the quid pro quo. Vic Garland, a Fraser minister, faced charges over this very thing.

    Otherwise it’s just natural if unlovely assistance between sympatico candidates, and not much worse (if limited to printing costs) than a major party lending activists to hand out how-to-vote cards. Parliament is yet to clarify the law. I suppose in a few years, candidates will return to the custom that Swan naively followed.

    Gusface also raised the spectre of dummy ‘independents’ as preference harvesters. Sadly there are no truth in political advertising laws.

    But arguably – if there is clear evidence – such behaviour breaches the law against misleading voters ‘in the manner of casting their vote’. Just as misleading how to vote cards offend that law: a protest voter, attracted to the ballot label ‘independent’ and nothing else, is entitled to know that candidate has no party affiliation.

    It’d be good to see a disputed returns test case: but I suspect the major parties are smart enough to: (a) encourage dummies with no traceable party affiliations, and (b) keep their negotiations purely oral.

  34. Adam, re your quiz question as to which Federal electorate is named after someone who never set foot in Australia…could it be Lowe?

  35. If anybody should resign it should be Wayne Swan if its good enough for Kevin Rudd’s brother to be expelled for giving money to the Coalition then its good enough for Swan to be kicked out for giving money to another political party…

  36. Hey Glen, I’ve got a scoop for you.

    Tomorrow’s Liberal “talking Points” sheet has instructions to all Liberal supporters not to “denigrate aspirational voters”.

    Got it right from the horses mouth, so to speak, on tv tonight.

  37. Glen, that’s a fallacy. Rudd’s brother left because he was … Rudd’s brother. He would have left happily, mostly because his business as a lobbyist representing all-comers was probably long ago incompatible with (the formal appearance) of being a member of a particular party. Also, there’s a bit of a history of fraternal differences and embarrassments: Billy Carter, Stan Howard, Tim Costello…

    In practical politics, there’s a difference between giving an outright donation to a genuine rival party (or, a la Quick, campaiging for them) and during the campaign, engaging in some co-ordination with a sympatico minor party or interest group.

    The latter may seem unethical or tawdry to some voters, but it’s neither illegal nor against the party’s interests (the reason for the Labor rule). The Libs still have questions to answer about co-ordination with the Exclusive Bretheren, and of course no-one would question Liberal transfers of assistance to the Nationals, an essentially minor party that fluctuates between rival and coalition partner.

  38. Another thing Glen, there’s too many people out there with long memories for the Swan issue to get much air.

    Opening up a can of worms would be a good description of this if it travells to far and too long.

    I think your mates at Liberal HQ and the Nats would be feeling a trifle nervous.

  40. 484
    gusface Says:
    August 14th, 2007 at 9:46 pm
    Strop
    to register you need as a candidate
    $500
    30 signatures

    gee that is hard and very expensive hmmm20×500=10000

    see not hard to get 20 candidates up in say the next two weeks

    http://www.aec.gov.au/FAQs/Candidates.htm#whatdoesitcost

    Thanks for the info Gus. Hey thats cheap: I might even reform the PARTY PARTY PARTY PARTY (QLD BRANCH) if it were that simple and swing a few votes Rudd’s way in West End. Not that he will need much help in QLD.

  41. Strop, I just saw your jokey admonition to ignore you. No need to. Bury the electronic hatchet. I think you misread a post where I said I was an academic: I wasn’t pulling non-existent rank, just explaining why I don’t post publicly from the gut (I write about workplace law and electoral law – both very political areas in which I find it more illuminating to talk about them as objectively as possible).

    I come from a small business family that was union friendly, so I can see the world from several angles.

    But yes, we academics and fence-sitters can sound carping sometimes.

  42. You may indeed be correct Graeme but the fact is what Swan did goes against the ALP constitution…

    I agree with your comment about the Exclusive Bretheren they should be outlawed…but assistance to the Nats is allowed after all they are in Coalition with the Libs.

  44. Strop

    now your really talking

    i might form the reformed PARTY PARTY PARTY PARTY (QLD BRANCH) (nsw branch)

    ps LeftE Rovism starts as soon as the last election finishes (rule 1)

  45. Agreed Graeme. Maybe you can tell me the veracity of Gus’s theory about dropping in ‘Independents’ as a practice in Australian political history.I noted your take on the legal boundaries and how they are stymied.

    But is it a habit of major parties these days to pull those kind of stunts ? I wonder if it would be a worthwhile exercise unless you had someone well known and respected by the community with no publicly known major party association-links.

  46. The Big Issues don’ t miss them in the Bulletin and in all the press.. fair dinkum is this what our journalists spend three years studying scuttlebat and trivia… how about issues that matter .. the environment, Iraq War which gets no coverage but a bridge collapsing in America gets full treatment…

  47. Rule 2 Gus – No Barbara Streisand fans. Please !!!

    On the Disunity is Death thing Lateline should have something to say. The early morning papers which master Antony Green reminds us sets the agenda for the days ‘news’ and wafts around in the psyche of the punters first thing in the morning (until that babe walks in front your car on the way to work) should be an interesting read if the journo’s milk it for all it’s worth. Bye bye Costello ?

  48. This is a beat up…

    The problem is the ALP will have ads on TV saying if Costello doesnt think Howard will win why should you?

    WEAK!

    And whoever said the media doesnt have it out for the Coalition is a fool they do…

    I’ll be watching tomorrow to see Costello’s response on 7:30 report will be interesting…

  49. marky marky says Says:
    August 14th, 2007 at 10:17 pm
    The Big Issues don’ t miss them in the Bulletin and in all the press.. fair dinkum is this what our journalists spend three years studying scuttlebat and trivia… how about issues that matter ..

    I don’t know about that marky, now that it has been run in the Bully, no one will want to be left out now.

    It will get a run in all the MSM for a day or two and you can bet that Costello is top of the “need to unterview” list at the moment.

    They said he had no ticker for a challenge, but he might just have a different strategy to Keating. ie Bring down the King but from a front bench position. Can’t have a drop in pay while we campaign to become PM, can we. Got a mortgage to support and all that hey what.

    I just hope that this is a continuation of the unravelling of the Liberals. I’m quite a fan of “blood sports”.

  50. Google News Australia now has 72 News Articles on the Costello, Leadership quotes to the Journalists.

    Could be a rough couple of days for both Howard and Costello. This issue will probably be left to Downer and Abbott to try and salvage some sort of face saving.

    It will sure take a lot of pressure off other areas where they are bleeding at the moment.

    I don’t think Rudd & Co will be too upset at the unfolding saga. It’s looking more and more that the issue is being driven by the Costello camp with quite a few marginal backbenchers giving quiet encouragement from the back.

Comments Page 10 of 12
1 … 9 10 11 12

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *