The Fairfax papers today carry their monthly ACNielsen poll, which shows a narrowing of Labor’s two-party lead from 58-42 to 55-45. Labor’s primary vote is down from 49 per cent to 46 per cent, while the Coalition is up from 39 per cent to 41 per cent. The movement most likely represents a correction from a somewhat excessive result last time. Now please, for the love of Christ, no more polls until next Tuesday …
Yes, but it would be a distaster for him personally to take it after this election. How about the following after this election:
“Australia has clearly indicated their desire for renwal in the Liberal party and I fully support ‘s desire to lead us into a new future. Of course I owe it to my electorate to continue to serve them as best I can.”
Then sixteen months or so after the following election…
“The party needs to refocus after failing to make headway against the Labor government and with my experience I am in the best position to challenge PM Rudd and lead us to victory come the next federal poll.”
Of course he’d need to take his lumps and be prepared to sit in opposition for a few years so, on reflection, probably a snowballs’ chance in hell.
hmm… angle brackets get turned into tags. Should read “support [insert gullible aspirant]’s desire”
For the information of members and their guests, there is some analysis here discussing the trials, tribulations, trips, traps and tricks of transient trends – (al) literally.
http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewforum.php?id=8
It shows how difficult it is to extrapolate trends from polling data, and uses polling from the 1996 election to illustrate the point. It finds that the aggregate polling actually came within 0.2% of the actual two party preferred vote achieved in the election, whereas three identified trends underestimated the final Coalition two party vote by as much as 4.4%.
There’s also comparisons to 2007.
I was wondering what the Coalition would try to do in SA to discredit the State Government’s economic credentials, and there you go, some bank hack trotting out indicators of a ‘technical recession’. Bollocks.
Surely Coalition strategists have something more to offer the electorate than trying to turn this Federal Election into a series of State elections (QLD:amalgamations;Victoria:Water; WA: Burke-gate; SA ‘technical recession’; NSW: Saw Mills; Tassie: infrastructure;NT: Indigenous Affairs) and ‘fear campaign’ tactics on industrial relations and economic viability ?
Thusfar, none of those tactics have worked, according to the polls. I still think if not for 9/11 and Tampa we would have a change of Govt in 2001. Latham killed 2004 off his own (dead) bat.
The electorate will not give them another run in 2007 unless they can do alot better than their current election strategy efforts in the coming weeks and make Rudd……. Never mind: they can figure it out for themselves.
The above link is just the general page, this is the actual page.
http://www.ozelection2007.info/forums/viewtopic.php?id=230
Stewart
at 385,
Yeah, thanks for that Stewart. I have always had a fascination for early Trade Union and Labor Party history.
Living in Rockhampton does sometimes have a bonus. I was privileged to witness a re-enactment of the Trial of the “Shearers Strike” participants in the very same Courtroom where the original Trial was held 100 years before.
Even the Courtroom furniture was original, the participants wore 1890,s costume and the original transcript was used.
I think this country is more the poorer that elements of our history like this aren’t given more prominence. To understand where we are now is to understand where we have come from.
Off topic, I know , but thanks again.
Rob
If the polls continue sour for the Libs, the party will tap Howard. Or, he will do one of his celebrated humbles: ” In the interests of the party … it has become clear to me … besides which, my knee hurts .. and blah, blah …”
I doubt his ego can withstand a crushing defeat. Better for Costello to cop that.
Adam, I thought your analysis of the working backgrounds of both the liberal and labor front benches was opportune.
Vote for the liberal party, and it’s a vote for the thugs in the law fraternity.
Stewart, one interesting thing about that event that Glen would no doubt approve of, was most of the participants in that Trial, went on to become Labour Members of Parliament with most being part of the First Labour Government anywhere in the world.
It seems there is a long history of “Union Thugs” becoming Labor front benchers.
David and Darryl, much appreciated
AB
i think its here but you figure it out
Psephology is the predictive or statistical study of elections. (From the ancient Greek psephos, ‘pebble’, which the Greeks used as ballots.) Psephology is possible for a variety of reasons: the compilation of precinct voting returns for all elections going back many years, the publication of numerous public opinion polls asking similar questions on many different dates, and the public availability of campaign finance information
It’s really all just “Black” and “White” then. Pebbles, that is.
#405 Aristotle, as always an informative and interesting read.
Derak,
thanks, I have Strunk actually. Your point doesn’t stand up in comparison to the other ramblings on the site – I’ll go with Stunkrat’s theory.
Thanks anyway.
From Crikey “Tips & Rumours Section”
(No Link, as it is in the sealed section for subscribers only)
“From the grassy knoll: You are making up “retirement letters” for the PM. I tipped you last week that these arrangements are already in hand. Believe me — this is real and it is supposed to happen immediately after the APEC meeting. Could it be before? By the way the election is set for December 8th.”
“From another grassy knoll: Colleague & I had a business meeting with Mal Brough last Friday where we suggested a date for the election as 3/11. Mal indicated 17/11 as more appropriate. Then quickly added “but not sure” Think he spilled more than he intended.”
Interesting times ahead.
Adam
Instructive stuff. Ta. Highlights the misinformation being spewed out by the libs.
This is somewhat off-topic but did you read about those Kiwi parents that want to name their kid “4Rreal” – someone please tell me we have laws against that here!
No we don’t. I think Kevin07 would make a splendid name.
Funny how Labor is so worried about 500,000 of Australians suffering from rental stress that they are going to give 50,000 people in 4 years less money than developers to solve the problem…score one for incompetence…
While the left likes to argue that Howard lies what did we all watch on TV last night…Kevin Rudd and ‘Punch’ as Costello calls him sitting around a table saying to Rosanna Harris that on a rent of 260 she’d get 50 bucks off her rent…funny thing is Kevin Rudd failed to mention to Rosanna oh sorry you dont count because its only for new houses built in 4 years time for 50,000 people and all existing renters get zip…Wow what a another amazing plan by Labor fraudband and now we have the ALP so concerned about rental stress they’ll make 50,000 renters 50bucks better off in 4 years time and give developers tax credits double the amount given to the poor old renters…
Perhaps Swan should have given Rosanna 50 bucks in a paper bag to offset her losses…what’s sad is they peddle around the media like with petrol saying we’ll have a petrol commissioner then saying oh we cant make prices less and saying ohhh we’ll crack down on food prices and then admitting they cant lower prices and now this…Labor is a sham all you have to do is look past the ‘crap’ as Dutton so eloquently put it and what you have left is an absolute joke.
Costello hasnt lost his touch in Parliament…Wayne Swan is a lame alternative to someone who has such a brilliant fiscal record…god help us all if Swan runs the economy and im not religious!
Happy 50th Costello you’re one of the Coalition’s greatest assets…
345 J-D Says:
Are there really many Anglo-Celtic Muslims? Can you name six? In fact, can you name _any_ six people who are Anglo-Celtic?
I can name one. Me. My ancestral stock is English, Scottish, a little Irish, and one swarthy Moor (you know, a Muslim).
And my result from the OzPolitics test is centre-moderate left overall, with a libertarian and a green streak. Which is about right for me.
366 Adam. Nice work, and saved for future reference. But you did forget that Brendon Nelson was head of one of the most powerful, militant, and bloody-minded unions of them all, the AMA.
The more that things change, the more they stay the same:
The Government is not concerned about the fact that the fabric of our society is breaking down, that poor and underprivileged people are living in dire circumstances. It is not concerned about the fact that people cannot house themselves any more, that whole generations of young Australians will never know home ownership.
– Paul Keating, House of Representatives Hansard, August 25th, 1981
And look what they got under Labor…
96billion dollars of Debt
Unemployment at 10% and higher
Interest Rates at 12% and as high as 17%
Hate to say it Keating sounds like a hypocrite to me…
Housing rates are stable 1/3 rent 1/3 own and 1/3 have loans…i dont see it impossible to own a home…we are earning more than we were in 1981…
Esperanto was the lingua franca at the com-intern. The esperanto community are left wing. Even George Soros (esperanto as a first language) is left wing by millionare standards. Howard cannot count on the support of this community and in a tight election is a fool to discount these 250 or so votes.
Good God, fellow political junkies. What have we come to? People call me “buddy” or, even worse, “Bud”.
No, sadly, Peter. No legislation on the horizon on this particular matter.
The above is off-topic, but in this heated political atmosphere it’s a bit of fun.
Is there a link somewhere for general, but reasoned political discussion? This site concerns itself with poll figures and, as someone who can barely add up, I feel I am an imposter. Numbers make my brain hurt. Words make more sense.
Derek: Yes i was just trying to lighten the mood even though it was off-topic. It should be harder to give your children weird names – or indeed to deed poll your own name to something weird.
Happy 50th Costello you’re one of the Coalition’s greatest assets…
Glen, if you waited until later in the day to get off on Costello claiming Rudd misled that woman he was talking about, you would realise that it was shown, in the Parliament, that he got that WRONG. He had egg on his face over it and embarressed the PM. Try again Costello.
If you think Costello making a gaffe like that is an indicator of being a “greatest asset”, you really are in desperate straits. Again, like Costello, you fail to gets your facts straight before you launch into trying to be clever, making yourself look like an ignorant clown instead. Try again Glen.
Oh and Glen stop cross-posting – that same illogical post was also posted here.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=536&cp=1#comment-25733
Glen, I think you underestimate the housing and rental crisis, by poo-poohing policies that attempt to address it. It’s a difficult issue, and really a cyclical thing, rather than any government’s fault. But I suspect a failure by both Federal and state governments to fund enough welfare housing in the past is coming home to roost. The biggest factor is the willingness of banks and other lenders to hand out vast amounts of credit to anyone who asks for it when interest rates are low.
And Optimist…I work for a mainstream media organisation and sometimes have to moderate blogs. If you don’t know why The Australian didn’t post your comment, I suggest you consult a defamation lawyer for advice.
You just can’t suggest people can be bought for a price without providing evidence that this is true, and even then, you might still lose a defamation case.
It’s not for me to give media law advice to the host of this blog, but perhaps Optimist’s comments should not stay in this public domain for too long!
Media organisations may also decline to publish comments if they merely reiterate comments from many others. You may think that the Australian publishes virtually everything that’s sent to it, but in fact it may only publish a fraction of the contribution. I don’t know, and neither do you.
Back to politics though…the consiracy theories about the “technical recession” in SA are interesting. I asked on this blog a few days ago why Labor’s opinion poll ratings were so high in SA (not being very familiar with that state myself), but didn’t get a response. Any ideas?
If the state is indeed in economic trouble, why is the Rann Government still very popular? Do South Australians blame Canberra for everything?
#
288
Michael Says:
August 13th, 2007 at 11:52 pm
Why do politicians make such a big deal out of their Christianity? I don’t believe they should hide it, but neither should they advertise it like it’s a show.
Thats what i have said before. It seems that advertising your Christianity is a populist thing ATM. One nation came along and the libs started to take on some of their policies and both parties moved to the right. FF comes along and its ‘ Im a Christian’ time. Will both major parties take on more FF policies and move to the religious right?
Glen Says:
August 14th, 2007 at 5:53 pm
And look what they got under Labor…
96billion dollars of Debt
Could be another hit and miss Glen. From another site, no link though.
{Oops, forgot to mention the claim that the Liberals have paid off $90B of Labors debt. Ever heard of creative accounting. Last look at the budget charts $50B was still outstanding. The fact that they have sold a heap of assets wouldnt come into the equation would it. J.W.H. selling N.W. gas and Telstra at bargain rates was a stroke of economic brillance. }
Could be that Rudd might inherit $50 Billion plus especially after Howard cuts loose with the election bribes properly. Could very easily exceed $90 Billion Glen.
Molotov do i know you?
Tony,
fair enough. Guess you’re right.
Having said that, I’m amazed at some of the stuff that does get up.
It seems Howard is very scared of Rudd 🙂
“PRIME Minister John Howard today dismissed Labor leader Kevin Rudd as superficial and predicted the Coalition would soon begin to catch up in the polls.
In a concerted attack on Mr Rudd, Mr Howard called him the “greatest political contortionist” ever while Water Minister Malcolm Turnbull accused him of causing the drought in southeast Queensland.
But in an upbeat address to caucus, Mr Rudd told Labor MPs that the Government was wasting question time with attacks on them instead of laying out fresh policies for the future.
“This is a government that has stopped governing,” Mr Rudd said to the private meeting.
“They’ve surrendered the advantage of incumbency which governments have.” ”
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22245538-5005361,00.html
Bill, no. Why?
352
Richard Jones Says:
August 14th, 2007 at 11:32 am
What you have demonstrated Lord D is that the old left-right paradigm doesn’t work. All of us are left on some things and right on others, except the fundamentalists who feel they have to accept everything on the right or on the left, even when it is patently absurd.
I’m what would be called far left on the environment and fiscally quite conservative. No party exists for me.
Yes there is a party for you Richard, Im not suggesting you vote for them but Liberals For Forests seems right up your allyway. I believe they may have once even won a seat in WA.
Optimist, So am I. But the internet is really a new world, and the ability to post something, and then delete it, or forward it, means media law isn’t moving fast enough to catch the medium. But smart lawyers, and litigious clients, could easily sue someone on the basis of what’s posted on this blog. Anyway, I hope they don’t, and free speech can reign supreme.
Incidentally, the organisation I work for had a seven-year-old child attempt to post a blog comment, which included the child’s name and address. When the blog moderator informed the child that the comment couldn’t be posted because we weren’t allowed to publish anything that could identify a child, the child replied that it was a false name and address! When a seven-year-old can be as sneaky and web savvy as that, what hope have any of us to control the net.
And please Optimist, understand that I’m not opposed to your comments (or even Cerdic Conan’s!) being posted. I’m all for intelligent political discussion and analysis on the web. I was just answering your question about The Australian.
Molotov Says:
August 14th, 2007 at 7:19 pm
“Yes there is a party for you Richard, Im not suggesting you vote for them but Liberals For Forests seems right up your allyway. I believe they may have once even won a seat in WA.”
I Believe Janet Wollard, the Member for Alfred Cove won the seat for the Liberals For Forrest but is now listed on the WA Parlaiment Website as an “Independent Liberal”
http://www.parliament.wa.gov.au/web/newwebparl.nsf/iframewebpages/Legislative+Assembly+-+Current+Members
Optimist
Re your comments to the Australian, I’d say keep posting, I have had quite a few posted and even some letters published that I was surprised were published due to the tone of them.
I think there is a very fine line between defamation and public knowledge when getting comments accepted or not.
That said it is good to see the different views and criticisms and I have found the Australian to be quite accepting of posts of late.
Howard continues to maintain a blind faith in a strong economy equating to election victory for the incumbent –
“We can put a strong argument to the electorate. We have a strong economy, an experienced, disciplined government, a superficial opponent, a better team and better members in marginal seats.”
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,22245538-5005361,00.html
And of course he says the interest rate hike last Wednesday is good for the Coalition because (talk about twisted logic) it somehow gives kudos the Coalition’s economic credentials and serves as a reason not to vote for Rudd.
Umm, last time I checked it was the Coalition that has been in Government for the past 11 years, it has been Peter Costello as Treasurer, not Wayne Swan and JWH promised to take care of interest rates as THE key election message, not the Labor Party. No-one is going to swallow that line JWH, unless they are blind faith loyalists like Glen.
Molotov just from past comments you seem to know the things i am involved in
STROP i call blind faith someone who thinks Rudd who has been in Parliament less than 10 years…been leader of the opposition for less than 1 year and never fought an election has the experience enough to be Prime Minister and would do a better job at managing the economy than Howard and Costello…
That is blind faith…
The PM is quite correct in predicting the polls will narrow, because he knows that in the real world – not in the distorted alternate universe of the published polls – the gap between the parties is a helluva lot narrower. One of the main things coming through loud and clear in the Government’s own research is that the support for Rudd out in the electorate is nebulous – they’re interested in him but they have deep concerns about his sincerity and his lack of experience. Apparently the Government’s findings also have the parties practically neck-and-neck on primary votes.
OK. Factor in tonight’s 7.30 Report re Costello and challenge. Go, pundits …
Kerry and Michael Brissenden really had a go at Costello…why dont they talk about policy and how Kevin Rudd lied to Rosanna Harris that she’d have rent relief when she wouldnt…Rudd is a charlatan…
How are the betting markets???
Glen,
Not much change in the betting markets:
Sportingbet 1.51/2.50
Centrebet 1.52/2.55
IASBet 1.53/2.50
Sports Acumen 1.54/2.47
Sportsbet 1.55/2.45
Only main change is Sportsbet, but that’s supposedly because one punter put $100,000 on the Coalition on Sunday.
Why should it be made harder for people to give themselves or their children “weird” names? Who gets to define what is a weird name? Who cares what people call themselves? If the kids don’t like being called 4Real or Jarryd or River or Cornflakebox they can change it when they grow up. Historical snippet: the name Cedric, which sounds very Olde England and traditional, was made up by Sir Walter Scott in his novel Ivanhoe – it was a “weird” name in its day.
Glen if Rudd has never fought an election, why is he a member of Parliament. You really are an ideologue: read my earlier post on Costello’s claims in the HOR about what Rudd said to that woman and take a wash cloth with you to wipe the egg of your face. Costello can loan you his, duhh !!
I have now finished tarting up the electorate pages at my website
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/2007seats/banks.shtml
opinions welcome. I am still missing pictures of Collet Barker, Charles Throsby, Louisa Dunkley and Ruth Fairfax
*newsflash*
The liberal party has and is rolling out true damascenes
ie Independents in key marginals directly pref to the incumbent
look at various marginals where suddenly a pethora of independents are nominating/announcing candidacy
make no mistake this is the rabbit
wherby a LOCAL name will be able to bleed up to 5% of swinging vote
this segues well into J-HOs local approach and hopefully dilutes impact of WORSTCHOICES etc anger
stay tuned
How many elections had Tony Blair fought? If the voters want to get rid of a government, they will, regardless of the “experience” factor. There is such a thing as too much experience, you know.