Due to a little stuff-up on my part, most comments made so far today went into moderation. The error has been rectified, and the comment build-up unblocked. As you’re all no doubt aware, the Reserve Bank has lifted official interest rates. In other news: giant Lego man washed up on Dutch beach.
I’m eager to see the next poll – Monday?
I would be particularly interested to see another breakdown by states or marginals.
It will be interesting to see how issues like the Mersey Hospital, the change of candidate in Quick’s old seat, the timber mill in Eden-Monaro, and council mergers in Queensland are affecting particular electorates, as well as the impact of broader issues like leaked Textor polling, Howard denying past commitments and interest rates.
Not sure what media you have been looking at. The Australian has a pro-government bias that borders on comical. I get a small dose of entertainment each day with how they manage to put a pro-govt spin on things. The AFR plays things pretty straight but due to its focus on business and econmics is moderately favourable to the govt. The Age/SMH definitely has a bias the other way – particularily the cartoonists.
Overall I think the Govt does well out of the media but each paper has their own demographic they play to.
The other point is that the media has a lot of space to fill every day. Rudd’s quiet wedge avoiding strategy is hard to write about but the govt is providing boundless material. If Howard stopped his ridicules number of ham fisted interventions the focus would probably get back to the fact that Rudd has not done much.
But that’s the Govt’s problem – they need to keep control of the agenda to get back in the game. Its there own self made wedge.
My parent-in-law, solid lib supporters in the (ex) blue-ribbon seat of Ryan have said it’s time. We rarely discuss politics with them as we don’t agree. He offered the opinion that it’s time for Howard to go. We were pretty surprised to say the least.
Rob (132)
Completely out of the blue, my deeply conservative grandmother (who has always viewed the ‘left’ as evil scum), recently said that Howard has stayed too long and she is thinking of voting for Rudd. Could have knocked me over with a feather.
Glen: So its not just the ABC that has a left wing bias now, but every media outlet?
You are sounding as desperate as Howard.
I’ll take any of your supposed left wing commentators and raise you Albrechtsen, Bolt, Laws, Shanahan, Ackerman any day of the week.
Posts 132 & 153, make of this what you will.
I was out to dinner last night at a restaurant in Marsfield, within the Federal electorate of Bennelong. It was a birthday celebration and there were 10 of us sitting at the table, all people (aged between 35 and 50 years) who I know very well. When the conversation turned to interest rates and the local member’s prospects, about 8 at the table said they were “going to stick with Howard” or words to that effect. This surprised me because some of them had been telling me as recently as June that they thought Labor’s leader “looked good’, was a “safe bet” and they would be voting for the Australian Labor Party as they had in 2001.
I remain undecided. On the other hand, my wife and mother (low involvement voters) are thinking of staying with JWH. I think they are worried about the economy. I told them that they should be concerned about the economy (there is a bad economic moon rising), but that Mr. Rudd would be alright because he has promised to maintain a budget surplus at or about 1% of GDP. They are not so sure.
Albrechtsen, Bolt, Laws, Shanahan, Ackerman these are all we have…the left has just about every single other journalist working in Australia…im sorry but its true the left gets an easy ride by the media especially the television media.
The fact is it aint easy looking after the economy and many people will say things are good now why risk it with an inexperienced leader and inexperienced treasurer…when people are in the booths voting they’ll be deciding to risk what they have now on the unknown and frankly what we have now is pretty darn good so why would u risk it?
Did any leftwinger mention the fact that in the latest jobs figures 21,800 people have found work and that more than 80% of those new jobs are full time…jobless rates at 4.3% and interest rates at 6.5% coupled with inflation within the RBA’s 2-3% illustrates just how well the economy is going…sure its going to hurt some people the rise of .25% but the fact is that this will hurt the poor more than the wealthy and it will hurt those who borrowed more than they could afford…sure nobody likes rises but they risen 15 times and gone down 19 times the Government is still ahead by miles over Keating!
Glen:
Guess who said this
[‘He again acknowledged structural changes to the economy made by the Hawke and Keating governments, saying the present strength of the economy owed much to the reforms made in the past 25 years.’]
Back on point:
Howard shown to be a liar yet again.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/state-spending-not-cause-of-rate-rise/2007/08/06/1186252630125.html
http://www.theage.com.au/news/in-depth/on-borrowed-time/2007/08/06/1186252633071.html
[‘Mr Howard has attempted to shift the blame to the states, saying that while the Federal Government has kept its budget in surplus, the states have run up $70 billion of extra debt, placing upward pressure on interest rates. But experts say that argument is nonsense. “It’s total, total bullshit,” said University of Western Sydney associate professor of economics Steve Keen. “It’s like saying that somebody dropped a pebble into the ocean and that caused a tsunami.” (emphasis added)’]
[‘Macquarie Research head of economics Richard Gibbs said state spending on infrastructure in the longer term was good. “Federal spending on (tax cuts and transfer payments) has been more inflationary.”‘]
Glen. Are interest rates higher, or lower, than when the liberal government came to office?
Big deal they floated the $A whoopy!
Let’s also not forget the fact that unlike the ALP today who have blocked each and every economic reform including paying off debt and keeping a balanced budget…the Coalition supported the long overdue economic reforms of the Hawke/Keating era.
Also lets not forget the average of Interest Rates of 10% and average Jobless rates of 10%…yeah that’s something to be proud about oh and the 96billion in debts they ran up which cost the taxpayer 8billion a year in interest…
You can’t trust Labor with Money!
They are lower now and throughout the life of the Liberal Government they have been far lower than under Keating Pi.
David,
You dinner party doesn’t quite sound like a representative sample if all 10 had previously voted for JWH 🙂
I know quite a few liberal voters who voice the idea of voting labor but I think this only because they are deeply ashamed of their party at present.
In the main part, if anyone was considering voting ALP they would have already decided. If there isn’t enough on the table to make you change now there never will be. So I don’t think Rudd will improve at all from here.
I think the problem for the Govt is most people have already voted in their mind and their trashing around is only entrenching the current 2PP outcome.
David,
This article by Peter Hartcher might help. I think he lays it out pretty well, giving the three views.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/pm-sells-out-economy/2007/08/08/1186530447683.html
Here’s one view.
J-D Just a correction, Greiner did not go a year early in ’91. He had no option. It was a three year term then. It was four years fixed from then on.
LC members had their terms cut short from three terms of the lower house to two terms.
You may recall he then had to deal with the three independents in the lower house – John Hatton, Clover Moore and Peter Macdonald – who did him in under the ICAC legislation. He was subsequently cleared of any wrongdoing.
Fahey came in, a pale reflection of Greiner I have to say, and he lost in 95.
It’s been Labor ever since.
No government has had control of the upper house since 1987.
Glen, it is truly ridiculous to blame the media if John Howard loses.
Likewise it would be as ridiculous to blame the media if Kevin Rudd loses.
The people make up their minds after having balanced every consideration.
The chances are, probably just, that they will decide to pension off John Howard.
It might have been different if he had handed over a year ago.
The media have decided that Kevin Rudd is a winner and will take a swag of seats off the Coalition.
They too like a fresh face and fresh ideas. They too get crashingly bored with the same old faces and same old lies.
It’s very likely, now that interest rates are at a ten year high, that will finish off any hopes John Howard had of gaining enough support to cling to office.
If he does, it will be by the skin of his teeth, perhaps only one or two seats.
The pendulum has no political bias. It is just a pendulum.
The fact that so many liberal progressives suggest the media does not play a role in conflating the Rudd ‘crap’ is careless and ignorant…Rudd has been built up as the poster child of the media and as far as im concerned to believe that the media would have no role in deciding this election is completely wrong!
From the Hartcher article in SMH
So if Howard manages to buy his way into another term, it won’t matter if the economy is wrecked, he won’t see out the full term and will resign as Australia’s longest serving PM. If he fails to get another term, it won’t matter because Rudd inherit a wrecked economy, and will have to carry the can at the subsequent election.
Would he really stoop that low?
Glen…
So after taking over and fixing the problems that Howard gave to them, including the floating of the dollar, and the independance of the reserve bank, and then subsequently driving down interests rates down over the next 13 years of government, the only thing that the current liberal government has done is increase them from that point?
Is that what you’re saying?
Thank you, Amber Dekstris, for the link to Peter Hartcher’s comment. I will pass it on to my mother. I think I understand the arguments.
By contrast, I do not thank Albert F (post 162) for his comment. My previous post did not infer that the views at the dinner table were “representative”, anymore than I imagine posters 132 and 153 thought their experience of others’ views were representative. Unless you were in some way unsettled by my prior post, I have to wonder why you bothered at all to respond.
I see a lot of parrallels for this current batch too. Labor governments make the hard decisions that lead to long-term prosperity (education, workplace relations, currency floats, reserve bank etc etc), the liberal governments come into power and drive all services into the ground, and then labor governments come back in again to pick up the pieces and make the hard decisions again.
Actually you are mistaken Pi….
Keating and Hawke increased interest rates to a high of 17%…
Howard brought interest rates to a 30 year low in 2001 after 5 years in power and from that point on the economy has been booming along thus forcing interest rates up but still throughout the period of the Howard Government interest rates have been on average so much lower than under Keating…
I never said Howard has increased interest rates they are still lower than when Keating left office Pi get your facts straight!
Pi how is it good to have a Federal Labor Government put the Commonwealth 96billion dollars in debt?
The best bit of Ambers link comes in the last paragraph “And Rudd’s position is to promise that however irresponsible Howard may be ,he will be slightly less irresponsible.”
Tweedle Dee and Tweedle me
Pi How does Whitlam fit your theory
Cisco… what were interest rates under Whitlam?
Pi how is it good to have a Federal Labor Government put the Commonwealth 96billion dollars in debt?
Glen, How is it good to have a federal liberal government that has managed to drive the Australian people a trillion dollars into peronal debt?
Glen, of course you are entitled to your opinion. I just don’t think it’s correct.
“Liberal progressives” I like the ring of that.
How about the “Progressive Liberal Party”? Might do quite well.
It could fill a substantial void.
All this talk of interest rates is a bit of nonsense too.
John Howard should never have said he was capable of controlling interest rates.
He could have influenced them, by, for example, not pumping billions of dollars into an overheated economy.
He could never hope to control them.
Interest rates tend to be global not just local in any case.
Ours are in fact quite high when compared to other countries.
Why? The economy is booming, for some.
We have a shortage of skilled workers and there is a risk of a significant wages breakout.
We are all borrowing and spending too much as though there’s no tomorrow.
The housing rates are very high now taking into account the average loan.
Yes, we all drove up house prices when interest rates were low and the government encouraged first home buyers to get in as well.
This current mortgage is equivalent to at least to the 17% when house prices were half and less.
Every quarter per cent increase is equivalent to a half per cent increase today compared to the Keating years.
That’s why it hurts so much.
A quarter per cent increase on a loan of $100,000 is not very much at all.
The pain will get worse until we curtail our expenditure.
The unfortunate thing is that it is the less well off who are hurt the most.
The rich can shrug off the extra rate increases. It’s a marginal difference.
We can expect further rate increases, one possibly early November.
Expect John Howard to go the Saturday before!
Glen says… I never said Howard has increased interest rates they are still lower than when Keating left office Pi get your facts straight!
You should get your facts straight Glen.
http://www.rba.gov.au/Statistics/Bulletin/F01hist.xls
Dec-1972 4.45 Whitlam elected.
Nov-1975 8.05 Whitlam gone, liberals take over.
Dec-1984 12.34 Liberals lose, Hawke takes over, and howard finally gets turfed as treasurer.
Nov-1996 6.45 When howard took over.
Aug-2007 6.5
So by the time the Labor government left office, interest rates were about half what they were when they took office.
Get your facts straight sonny boy.
Oh… and when was the highest interest rate ever recorded by the RBA?
Apr-1982 21.39
… when guess who was treasurer, and the liberals had been in government for five years.
Pi More to the point what were they before Whitlam and you can have a go at guessing inflation remembering though that like Fraser there was a bit of an oil crises but there wasn’t an eastern seaboard drought.
He never said he could control them, the only thing he said was that interest rates would always be lower under the Coalition than under Labor and he’s right.
If Howard resigns the Coalition might as well surrender now…He’s a better leader than Rudd could ever hope to be…
The progressive liberals are basically Petro and thats it…the Libs arent a centre-left party they are centre right organisation.
Rudd is trying to copy the Libs in every way because he knows how popular the Libs have been…
And in October 1987 the world had the largest stock market crash since the great crash of the 1930’s. Your point?
Pi it wasnt easy trying to fix the mess Whitlam left the Liberal Party and we couldnt fix it in 5 years it was that bad…if Whitlam had more experience than Rudd and he stuffed the country up that much can be really afford Rudd who has less experience?
Glen. I think you should add to your list of Labor catastrophes the fact that butter was severely rationed under the Chifley Labor administration in the late 1940s, but miraculously freely available under enlightened Mr Menzies. How soon people forget!
Glen, He never said he could control them, the only thing he said was that interest rates would always be lower under the Coalition than under Labor and he’s right.
And what I’ve just shown you there Glen, is that it was just as false then, as it is now. Interest rates under liberal governments always go up, and it takes a labor government to come along and fix the problems they create. Interest rates are highest under liberal governments, and I’ve got the figures to prove it.
Pi How does a stockmarket crash add to inflation and interest rates like a global shortage of oil if anything it puts a bit of a dampener on inflation but you would know that right.
Cisco, your logic is about as worthy as your research skills. Crashes in stock markets lead to bad debt. Bad debt leads to tightened credit. Tightened credit is achieved by higher interest rates.
It’s not hard.
Face it Cisco and Glen… I sourced the information that proves your argument completely false. Now scurry on along and whip up some hatred of a minority… it’s the only thing this current batch of ‘liberals’ do well.
No more Pi versus Glen, thanks very much.
The day the average punter genuinely thinks Labor can manage money pigs will fly…never
Libs should have a chance in Franklin with the ALP finally getting rid of that Union thug just shows how bereft of talent that party is…
Pi lets call a truce…anyway we have got bigger fish to fry…the interest rate rise
Pi go back and re-read what I said and perhaps you might wish to respond differently.
Union thug? When the liberals kick Bill Heffernan to the gutter where he belongs, we can talk about the standards of politicians in either party.
But alas… truce it is.
Glen: “He never said he could control them, the only thing he said was that interest rates would always be lower under the Coalition than under Labor and he’s right.”
Voters certainly believed he could and would control them.
It’s not possible to show that interest rates would have been higher in the past eleven years under Labor. It’s a nonsense statement and can never be verified.
Glen: “If Howard resigns the Coalition might as well surrender now…He’s a better leader than Rudd could ever hope to be…”
The Coalition would have a better chance of re-election under a new leader
and you never surrender.
Kevin Rudd may prove to be a much better leader. We simply don’t know yet.
Glen:”The progressive liberals are basically Petro and thats it…the Libs arent a centre-left party they are centre right organisation.”
Yes, that’s unfortunately correct now. The Libs are actually a right organisation, not centre-right, though.
Glen:”Rudd is trying to copy the Libs in every way because he knows how popular the Libs have been…”
John Howard has also been copying Kevin Rudd and his policies because he knows how popular they are – on broadband, global warming etc.
Kevin Rudd has been studiously avoiding being wedged. John Howard has been playing catch up.
Sorry, my point above about the butter was a bit obtuse. I just think the endless dick measuring contests over the size of interest rates across time is unedifying, since the economies of the 70s, 80s and 90s were each very different animals. That said, Pi’s arguments are probably pretty much what Labor should have been saying at the 04 election to counter Howard’s interest rate scare tactic. However, the fact that Howard was allowed to get away with it then has set him up now for a bigger fall as rates wander ever upward. Richard Jones’ cool summation at 4.38 says it all.
This is a terrific blog, William. Truth is distilled, eventually. Far more than in the MSM. It just takes longer to read.
[He never said he could control them, the only thing he said was that interest rates would always be lower under the Coalition than under Labor and he’s right.]
And you fall for this crap of a politician saying he can predict the future? Do you also believe in the tooth fairy?
More leaked Crosby/Textor polling, this time, who are the least popular government members?
And no, the answer isn’t Tony Abbott! It is my local member, the Duchess of Sturt, Christopher Pyne! The only time I’ve met someone who likes him was at the Republic Referendum, I was handing out for the Yes campaign with a Young Liberal. (The Vote NO flyers were being handed out by someone from the Citizens Electoral Council!)
Other than that, I can’t name anyone who actually likes the guy.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22216465-29277,00.html
“But the health minister can at least take comfort in being more popular than Ageing Minister Christopher Pyne, who polled dead last after registering a good impression among just five per cent of Australians. ”
FIVE percent! And who knows, that could be the same as the margin of error, so in actual fact 0% of people like him. 😛
http://www.vanguard.com.au/vnl/mc/ac0506/basicgraph9_andex2.swf
Glen, actually, they are not. Glen, have you, Cerdic Conan and Steven Kaye ever considered teaming up? You’d kill ’em at the Comedy festivals…
Cheers,
Tom.
From Crikey
6. Tips and rumours
An interesting poll. Galaxy are currently conducting a poll in Bennelong, for publication early next week (I was called last night). The two key questions relate to how much the PM’s age and (dis)honesty will influence votes.
According to The Bulletin, Liberal Party polling says Bennelong is very close, around 51/49 in favour of Howard.
One “senior Liberal strategist” thinks whoever wins Bennelong will win government. I tend to think Howard will only lose in Bennelong if it is a landslide.