Due to a little stuff-up on my part, most comments made so far today went into moderation. The error has been rectified, and the comment build-up unblocked. As you’re all no doubt aware, the Reserve Bank has lifted official interest rates. In other news: giant Lego man washed up on Dutch beach.
Interested to see in today’s Adelaide Advertiser the normally mildly conservative senior journo Rex Jory calling on Howard to step aside post APEC. My initial suprise in detecting a shift in the ‘Tisers (News Ltd and the only daily here) normal stance was nothing if not matched on further reading Jory’s piece. Jory’s solution for the Libs?. . . Peter Costello, who he believes will eventually win over the electorate or at least go down fighting. Maybe. His suggested deputy? Alexander Downer of course, who “would be more than a match – intellectually, politically and in terms of public acceptance – for Labor’s deputy, Julia Gillard”. Perhaps it’s just a South Australian thing.
Its simply amazing how Howard can stand in parliament today and say you can go thru everything he said during the last election campaign and never once did he say he would keep interest rates low – he may not have said it but his election ads did and he after all the the leader of the party. Therefore he is responsible but that his problem he refuses to accept responsibility and accountability for anything – he is always seeking to blame someone else and finally the Australian public is saying no more. For christ sakes – have a good look at yourself – JWH!
Nostra – keep dreaming, one day you will wake up and smell the roses!
It will benefit many within the Liberal party if they lost this election, it will be the only way they can save the party before it falls into a self-perpetuating extreme right party.
If Howard wins then thats the end of the party for them. This party is truly sick – makes you wonder if many leaks to Rudd were coming from them.
BxTom – I think you’re right. I get the feeling that there is a real momentum building up – Costello’s contributions to the Howard biography, the leaked Textor Poll, Howard doing his Richard Millhouse Nixon impersonation (“I am not a crook”) in the media yesterday, and the bizarre denials of reality today about the Libs promising record low inflation – all of these things are combining to gain a momentum of their own.
Background to it all, though was the 58% of people in the Newspoll (?I think?) who said that, despite agreeing with the NT intervention, dismissed it as cynical electioneering. Yes, this is becoming a media narrative, an orthodoxy, but the media is only catching up with, and then fueling, the perception that this cretin is the most cynical, devious, untrustworthy politician in living memory.
We can’t wait for the chance to repay the betrayals come election day. It’s time.
“If Howard wins then thats the end of the party for them. This party is truly sick – makes you wonder if many leaks to Rudd were coming from them”.
Kina since approx March of this year and they will keep coming in a torrent now
PS Strop dont go pls 🙁
STROP, I will looking into the mechanics of bloggification over the next few days. I’m not sure I want to spend as much time playing room monitor as William does – but then I would be much more ruthless in turfing out spammers.
Steven Kaye,
I wonder if you really are as insouciantly confident as you claim to be. I’m impressed in a perverse way if you are, and if you’re not, I admire your chutzpah if nothing else.
It’s quite obvious you don’t have a mortgage. Any interest rate rise makes a big impact on people with large mortgages and anything like average incomes. You know, those Howard battlers we always hear about. I certainly don’t welcome the rise myself though I am fortunate enough to have borrowed my money 10 years or so ago so I have a bit more breathing space. I would not have appreciated rate rises at all if they had come in the first year or two of my mortgage I can tell you.
It is the kind of thing that the average punter with no particular interest in politics bases their vote on. JH said he was going to keep them low last time (whatever his exact wording) and they have only gone up since. It has to hurt him with these voters.
These people know the world won’t end if Labor is elected. None of the states have collapsed while Labor has been running them. Whatever the state govt’s failings, and there are plenty here in NSW, the state is not going broke, the budget is not in deficit, the sky is not falling in.
I’m also curious as to your description of the”failed” Goss govt. I realise it’s probably just a talking point to fire at Rudd, but why was it a failed govt? Because it got voted out? They all do eventually, you know.
If the Liberal Party is so sick then why is Rudd trying to emulate the Liberal Party on just about every issue…he’s now for balanced budgets….he’s now for surplus’s…he’s now for having a military that isn’t geographically centred…he’s now for a tough national security policy ala Haneef…he’s now for keeping interest rates low…he says he doesnt want to increase taxation…he’s now in favour of Howard’s forestry policy…
Sorry STROP but Rudd is a wanabee Liberal and thats a fact he knows just how popular the Howard Government has been and wants to be a carbon copy of it so that he can win…but its all a facade…
Also Hoots whats so bad about Richard Millhouse Nixon???
As Nixon himself said “A man is not finished when he is defeated. He is finished when he quits”. And i hate to break it to you STROP Howard aint quiting he’s a fighter and he wont give up…
But to those lefties Nixon also said “Finishing second in the Olympics gets you silver. Finishing second in politics gets you oblivion”. And nothing could be more true than what will happen to the loser of this election.
With Portlandbet where they currently have the seat division based on betting price at 75/73/2. But Im wondering what was there starting point and did they determine it? If it was too high then their predictions are going to wrong?
http://betelection.com/elections/
The timing of an election has always been up to the PM. However I suspect that even on this issue John Howard is losing control of the agenda, as the Government has on most things this year. Rudd has been carefully planting the notion that the three year term of the Government is up on 9 October. Tonight on Lateline Peter Beattie reinforced it, and contrasting the position with John Howard’s concern that council voters in Queensland get a vote on their boundaries. As he put it the most important issue is who should govern Australia and this should be resolved as soon as possible and not be dragged on beyond 9 October.
My sense is that the political climate has heated up very quickly and that people will tire of not being given the opportunity to vote and put an end to the constant point scoring. This has every prospect of seeing the timing of the election become the issue, significantly limiting John Howard’s flexibility about when he can call it.
The conventional wisdom of following the football Grand Finals may be too late.
Howard was correct when he said he never promised to keep interest rates at record lows.
The promise only appeared in Liberal Party advertising for the election ie ” the Liberal party will keep interest rates at record lows”
Effectively what Howard is pointing out is that you cannot trust Liberal Party advertising.
As you wish STROP, but by my rough count there’s 60 anti-government comments on this thread (and I’m not counting Richard Jones) against 12 pro-government.
The election will be in late October or early-to-mid November. Will it change the result? Probably not? Howard was gone before today’s interest rate rise (even though in economic terms, the rise was necessary. I just don’t think a lot of the people who signed up to mortages in the last five years have considered fixed rates. At least they are being told now to tighten their belts.)
Beattie always does a good job and he didn’t let me down this time on Lateline. Pity they don’t show this on other stations.
Yesterday I posted some details of the Govt intervention in the affairs of a Canberra saw mill in order to pay the entitlements owing to circa 100 employees, most of whom live in Queanbeyan, part of ultra marginal Eden Monaro.
Latest news is that it may have gone to sh*t for them. (seems par for the course lately!). The mill operators had entered into an agreement with the NSW Govt to open a mill at Bombala in the far south of the electorate in exchange for the rights to saw logs. The operators apparently broke that agreement several times. Now workers and other locals in the Bombala area are up in arms that the Feds have attempted to resuscitate the Canberra deal without delivering what they in Bombala had been promised and had been banking on. The Feds deal would have logs from south of Bombala travelling over 200 km north to Canberra for blatantly political reasons, leaving employment and business oportunities behind.
Looks like picking up a hat full of votes in Queanbeyan in exchange for a suitcase full in and around Bombala.
For those of you unaware of the geography of this post, I refer you to Adams fantastic resource.
[The Feds deal would have logs from south of Bombala travelling over 200 km north to Canberra for blatantly political reasons, leaving employment and business oportunities behind.]
And the feds are paying to have each long turned into a single bowling pin?
How many people work there, it was $3 million right, how much per worker does that come to?
Come on. Lets not get carried away.
I want the Gov to lose, lets be clear about that.
The rate rise is under their watch so …fair enough. they get the blame. But … really, does anybody honestly think it is a bad thing?. I mean, of course it hurts, but can you honestly say the Gov have done something so terribly wrong that they should be slammed for the rise.. If the ALP was in power and things were the same economically speaking., rates still would have gone up.
Maybe it might be lower at some stage under one mob then the other, but all things being equal it would probably have gone up if Kev was in power anyway…
Given the same set of circumstances, The same rate change would have happened. Lets stop pissing on about things that really wouldn’t be different and focus on the things that WOULD be.
Like… basically, everything but… the rate change
Mike
The NSW govt raised the issue of corrupt behaviour in regards to the mill.
Apparently Howard said they will pump money into the mill if the NSW govt gaurantees the Canberra mill will get the contract for the logs.
The NSW said this was potentially corrupt and could invite an ICAC investigation if they award a contract without going to tender and/or not picking the best tenderer.
Also the issue of the awarding of the contract being influenced by monetary considerations.
Simon
I believe there are approx 100 employees involved.
I have heard figures of $3m, $4m and $5m bandied about. I don’t think anybody really knows.
Link to story re the mill and ICAC.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/NATIONAL/Iemma-may-refer-mill-offer-to-ICAC/2007/08/08/1186530431116.html
It’s political extortion and they are treading on dangerous ground. They are getting very close to offending the very strict probity rules,” Mr Iemma told reporters.
“The tender issues next week and we’ve got a federal member of parliament saying don’t go to tender, give it to this company, a company that hasn’t delivered what they signed with the state.”
Mr Iemma said IFT was given plenty of opportunities to deliver the project.
He did not rule out referring the matter to the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC).
The bunker analogies above are apt. Those whom the Gods would destroy etc …. Howard is erratic, stumbling over his criss-crossed lines on interest rates.
Rudd promise to “mess with Howard’s mind a bit” – I fear he may have broken it.
Im sorry, but the “stunning reversal” theory of 1993 requires a little something called a strategy. Not a series of half-baked uncosted wedges – which, even being generous, qualify as little more that a confusing array of tactics; some of them at cross purposes (eg Tas govt spends too little for hosptial wedge, and too much for interest rate wedge. Huh?)
His performance on 7.30 last night was cringeworthy. eg that weird mumble “he’ll put out a press release” on the Tas Lib Senator decrying the takeover.
Ive been surveying economists responses, and the general view seems to be the resources boom is the key culprit, and if any government at all has contriubted, it aint the states borrowing for infrastructure. The tax cuts are considered more inflationary by most, and the big spending of the Lib campaign worries some others.
All of you leftards have said ohhh there goes my tax cut…booohoo
Well at least under Howard you get tax cuts under Keating he raised taxes people have never had it so good and they’ll be sorry if they kick Howard out how many time will Wayne the wonder boy Swan give Australians tax cuts NEVER!
Any noob who doesnt get fix interest rate loans when they were so very low were ignorant and stupid and if they are struggling to make ends meat without $40 they shouldnt have got a loan they couldnt afford too bad!
Fact is Howard has brought interest rates so low that the many stupid people have thought ohh i can afford 500,000 instead of 350,000 and look what happens well ive got no sympathy for people like that…
Glen, so you’re saying Howard mismanaged the economy by allowing interest rates to fall dangerously low?
[Mr Iemma said IFT was given plenty of opportunities to deliver the project.]
They were meant to open a new saw mill and didn’t, why should the government support them when they can’t stick to their agreements?
Why would any state government do anything in the months leading up to the election. They run the risk of Howard jetting in and making political points out of any tought decision they make. In his desperation Howard is just trying to paralyse state government.
[Wayne the wonder boy Swan give Australians tax cuts NEVER!]
This is just hypothetical, you don’t have more insight than anyone else on this because you can’t predict the future.
[Fact is Howard has brought interest rates so low that the many stupid people have thought ]
They’re the same rate now as when he was first elected, what’s your point?
Just how risky for Rudd is this council merger spat?
[Just how risky for Rudd is this council merger spat?]
I think it is very risky. But the only way for Beattie to defuse it is to just postpone all mergers until next year, and at the same time tell Howard he is bailing on the water deal for fear it may upset some Queenslanders who live in councils that may be effected by the deal.
If Howard wants state governments to avoid tough decisions, then that should include all the tought decisions that Howard wants them to make.
Once again today the Daily Telegraph is supporting the bulk of its readers.
They know their readers are truly angry at this rate rise and feel betrayed.
It may not be much to some but it is a lot for those already stretched.
Now there’s serious talk of another rate rise by the end of the year.
Also the Coalition has booked TV commercial spots until the end of November and have cancelled earlier ones.
Might be the last Saturday in November or the first in December.
The December one would be a very bad idea and would probably cause a backlash.
The 75 Coalition 73 ALP 2 independent betting spread will most likely change.
Page is in the 75 bracket as are other Coalition seats which will probably fall.
It gives us a good idea of where people are prepared to put their money.
It isn’t perfect though.
You could run the argument that Coalition supporters have more money to spare for gambling!
The likely end result? 70- 78- 2? 73-75-2?
You can see why John Howard is desperately throwing money about in the critical marginals.
So far though it has backfired.
Oh Arthur, where are you when John needs you?
If it was really hurting Rudd in QLD, I’m sure Beattie would postpone or stop the council mergers.
Nostradamus Says:
August 8th, 2007 at 9:52 pm
There is not one person I know of, or that I have seen online, who voted Liberal/National in 2004 who has stated that they are even considering voting Labor in 2007. I challenge ANYONE here to state they do so.
Nostradamus…. I’ll tell you of three I know. My mother, My father (both in QLD), and my sister in-law (in Victoria). They voted Liberal last election, and they’ll be voting Labor this one. And for the record, that means that out of 10 people, three have switched their vote.
Evan… my father in-law is planning on voting out Beattie at the next state election… but he’s STILL going to vote against the liberals at federal level.
My parent-in-law, solid lib supporters in the (ex) blue-ribbon seat of Ryan have said it’s time. We rarely discuss politics with them as we don’t agree. He offered the opinion that it’s time for Howard to go. We were pretty surprised to say the least.
You’ve got no sympathy for stupid people?
That’s … interesting …
For the record, I have no interest in getting a tax cut.
If you are saying that it makes no difference to interest rates whether we have a Labor Government or a Coalition Government, you may be right, but you are rejecting one of the main arguments the Coalition used in favour of voting for it at the last election, which they are still trying to use in their favour this time.
He was a crook.
Since you ask.
These are obviously the lines that Nick Greiner was thinking on when he decided to call the election a gratuitous year early in 1991. Mistake.
Pi,
I can put my hand up a someone who voted for Howard in 2004 (albeit with a heavy sigh). I consider the reforms to the tax system, superannuation, gun control, industrial relations etc have benefited Australia and will continue to do so. Much as the Keating reforms continue to pay dividends.
But I have watched as Howard has turned Australia into a corresive hegemony where every aspect of the public sector is bent to one end -to stay in power. The army, the AFP, the public service, the public purse, the sepratation of powers, the enviroment, basic human rights have all been reshaped to serve a single person clinging to power.
In my opinion this governemt is now truely dangerous to nature of our democracy and society. It has to go. My voted will change this election and Howard’s destuctive trashing around for a wedge issue only confirms this view.
I do not fear a Labor government. Governments are made to look a lot smarter than they really are by the resources of the civil service. An incoming Labor Govt will be well supported and will have a much clearer will to do the right thing. I recall when Steve Bracks accidently fell into power in Victoria there were dire warnings about how incompetetant the incoming Labour administration would be – the reverse turned out to be true. Indcidently, I changed my vote in that election too.
I see virtually no chance of Gillard becoming leader so long as she is affiliated with the left faction.
My comment above is in response to Nostradamus’ challenge. I misread it as Pi’s call for people to put their cards the table.
Albert F said
That would be a puppet vote eh Albert?
Let’s not forget that it was Kaye and Nostradamus who were predicting the Burke scandal would be the end of Rudd, as would be the Sunrise scandal, Therese Rein, the unions, the Federal Budget and so on (both here and on Ozpolitics).
So far their results stand at 0%
Not really, I can’t say I was overly enthusiastic voter. But I had been following Latham for a while. He wrote a column in the AFR called “the third way” during his exile to the back bench. Being always interested in fresh ideas, I was a regular reader. All this did was convince me that Latham grossly overestimated his own insights and had a tin ear for what would resonate well in the political theatre.
When he was elected leader I thought that it was going to be a train wreck for the ALP.
I am surprised at the intransigence of some of the commenters – more like football supporters than thinking voters.
When even the former liberal PM and other senior party members publicly accuses the Howard gov’t of betraying the basic ideals of the party, and behaving with complete disregard for principles of humanity and decency then we are in big trouble.
Tax cuts and interest rates are important to the average person, but so is watching the bloodshed in Iraq, the riots in Cronulla, the detention of innocent children behind razor wire. and so on and so on.
Howard has underestimated people’s sense of values and reduced us all to money-grabbing morons. And he will pay.
My father, my uncle, my house mate, and many people I know in the town I live in area all changing their vote from Liberal to either Labor or Green.
There’s been much discussion recently regarding the “it’s time” factor in this election. Coalition supporters claim it’s pointless to have change for the sake of change, and I agree, it is pointless. But what do the voters mean when they say it’s time for a change?
Simply put, they have a feeling that changing the party in power,
rejuvenates the political process and by defintion the running of the government. So it’s not change for change’s sake, it’s change for the sake of rejuvenation.
An excellent example of this was highlighted in Lyndsay Tanner’s press club speech yesterday, where he pointed to Labor’s commitment to more open government and more accountability. How much of it will occur remains to be seen, but at the start all new governments want to make a good impression and want to actually do a good job of governing well. That is what the voters sense, and that is why they routinely change governments.
This is his media statement.
http://www.alp.org.au/media/0807/msfinpaa080.php
I do find it funny that Howard is on the back foot over interest rates. In fairness, the rate rise is an indicator of how well the economy is travelling. But, also the lower rates in 2004 were common throughout the western world – and had little to do with the Government. Indeed Australian rates have generally been high compared to Euro, Yen and USD rates.
It’s ironic that Howard is now be caught by one factor that is not really within his control after having ducked and weaved out of so many things that were his fault.
Howard will probably think he was unfairly robbed if he looses this election. Keating still thinks he was robbed. In reality both Govenments did good work but ended up switching their focus to maintaining power rather than using it wisely.
I think the electrate has a good sense of when this change occours.
‘Howard says Sorry!”
wow..he IS desperate.
He uttered the S word
:O
oh..on intererst rates… hehehe
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22215122-2,00.html
If Howard loses the election it will be the Media who is to blame i dont think you could find any positive news stories about Howard on at the moment and i bet you couldnt find any negative ones about Rudd…
Fact is the media love Rudd and they think he can win so they have given him such an easy ride…Burkegate…Sunrisegate…glass jaw…his wife underpaying staff…the media reported on it for a few days then zip…fact is Howard makes a booboo the worlds coming to an end and if Rudd makes a mistake then it was surely an honest one…
No wonder the polls are the way they are when you switch on the 6 o’clock news to hear its been another bad day for the Government now for crying out loud if people watch that day in and day out they’ll think Howard will lose and will feel more like voting for ‘a load of crap’ (Dutton).
If Howard loses we can blame one major factor in his downfall…the media plain and simple…Paul Bongiorno, Laurie Oakes, Barrie Cassidy and the rest of them they have a lot to answer for…if we had a balanced media the polls wouldnt be so bad for Howard…
But on a brighter side thanks to Peter Beattie the Nats should hold Hinkler and win the new seat of Flynn also the swings will be muted against marginal Liberals there goes Rudd’s grand strategy in QLD he’ll have to find his 16 seat elsewhere…
Glen… those who live by the polls, die by the polls, and Howard, with his 24-hour-a-day cheer squad in the Rupert Mudoch controlled media, has had more than enough free spin.
The media, and its constant demonization of minority groups and scare-mongering about a virtually non-existant terrorist threat, has done more to help Howard than anything else.
The problem for Howard is that people have simply switched-off, and have already made up their mind, no matter how much anyone says otherwise. Which is why the primary support for the ALP has remained almost constant since Rudd took over.
You know you’re gonna lose, when you start blaming the media…
Glen, you are playing games, tiger. The last month has been remarkable for the shift in emphasis from pro-govt. The turnaround has been commented upon, almost to the point of being documented, here and elsewhere. You will be taken more seriously if you refrain from saying things that are demonstrably untrue.