The much-loved Idle Speculation series will henceforth double as a vehicle for updates on preselection and other election-related action. Developments of note from the past week:
Queensland Senate (Liberal): Next Saturday, about 250 Queensland Liberal preselectors will determine who will fill the vacancy created by Santo Santoro’s departure. The person chosen will serve out the remainder of Santoro’s term, which ends in July next year. What happens then is yet to be determined. Before Santoro’s departure, the party had decided upon a ticket with Ian Macdonald at number one, Santo Santoro at number two, Young Liberals president Mark Powell at number three, and businesswoman and disabled advocate Sue Boyce at number four. The party administration is yet to determine whether the second position will be filled by promoting Powell up the order, or by holding a new preselection. Many an eyebrow was raised last weekend when Powell withdrew from the race to fill the short-term vacancy, instead throwing his support behind former state party leader Bob Quinn (who reportedly has the support of the Prime Minister). This was despite Powell’s links to the Santoro faction and its traditionally strained relations with Quinn. The Gold Coast Bulletin reports speculation that "the Santoro mob have withdrawn their candidate and opposition to Mr Quinn so they can regroup before the federal election to push Mr Powell into the No. 2 spot, hoping Mr Quinn’s popularity, if he is a Senator then, would be enough to launch all three into the Senate from the third position". A further motivation might have been a desire to thwart Sue Boyce, the favoured candidate of state party leader Bruce Flegg. Flegg’s "western suburbs" grouping played a similar spoiling role against Powell last year when it blocked his preselection bid for Quinn’s old state seat of Robina, by shifting support from its own candidate to the unaligned Ray Stevens. Other candidates for the Senate vacancy include Ted O’Brien, chairman of the Australian Republican Movement; David Moore, staffer to Longman MP Mal Brough; and Doug Young, a lawyer "specialising in the resources sector".
Queensland Senate (Greens): Fairfax’s Brisbane Times website reports that environmental lawyer Larissa Waters is believed to have had a "landslide" win over Juanita Wheeler in last Thursday’s Greens preselection vote. Andrew Landeryou‘s sources have told him of a 300-100 margin in Waters’ favour, although Greens supporters might be inclined to take issue with aspects of Landeryou’s account. The party is "expected to make an announcement" of the result next week.
NSW Senate (Labor): The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Labor’s state general secretary Mark Arbib is contemplating a run for the Senate, contrary to earlier reports he hoped to unseat the notoriously unproductive Michael Hatton in the safe lower seat of Blaxland. It is reported that two of Labor’s winnable seats will go to incumbent Ursula Stephens of the Right and Australian Manufacturing Workers Union national secretary Doug Cameron, who has the numbers to unseat incumbent George Campbell for the position reserved for the Left. It is not clear which of the three hopefuls would take the safe first and second positions, and which would have to settle for the dubious third. Anne Davies of the Sydney Morning Herald reports speculation that Arbib’s jockeying for union support played a role in state Blacktown MP Paul Gibson’s ill-fated appointment to cabinet.
Page (NSW, Nationals 5.5%): Clarence Valley councillor Chris Gulaptis has won the Nationals preselection for this north coast seat, which has been left vacant by the retirement of sitting member Ian Causley. The Northern Star reports Gulaptis won "comfortably" with over half the first preference vote, from a field that included local doctor Sue Page, Kyogle mayor Ernie Bennett, Ballina councillor Sharon Cadwallader and radio presenter Neil Marks. The paper also reports that Labor is "at least two months" away from selecting its own candidate. Those said to be "considering" a run are Clarence mayor Ian Tiley and former state MP Janelle Saffin. Saffin was a Lismore-based upper house member from 1995 until 2003, when she withdrew from preselection after it became clear she would not retain a winnable position on the party ticket.
Dobell (NSW, Liberal 4.8%). Amid little fanfare, Health Services Union official Craig Thompson has been endorsed as Labor’s candidate to recover the central coast seat it lost to current Liberal member Ken Ticehurst in 2001.
Adam & Bill are once again pulling their respective puddings.
Dr Andrew Southcott is one of the brightest men in the Parliament. A medical doctor, a casualty specialist, the holder of qualifications in Economics and an MBA.
His back passage would know more about the GST than Adam, Bill and all their nerd hack friends put together.
Yep, Dr Southcott is from the ‘real world’, a world alien and foreign to the assorted trade union hacks and Labor backbench electorate officer ‘A’ level dimwits (sound like someone you know Adam?) that love to talk the talk but know deep down they will never have the skill or ability to stand for anything greater than alternate delegate to the Grievance Committee of Melbourne Ports FEC.
Southcott will run whatever Labor candidate puts their head up out on a rail. Have a look at the Unley figures from the last State election. Labor bleated that the seat was in the bag but even then they couldn’t knock over a dud Liberal candidate with their own candidate who was both capable and marketable.
Southcott will hold Boothby double digit.
Terrigal Lad, Craig Thompson the endorsed candidate for Dobell does live in the electorate of Dobell. He is a far superior candidate to the inarticulate and habitually late David Mehan.
My understanding is that Sue Mueller will take on Belinda Neal in the neighbouring seat of Robertson. Sue has been a community activist for years on the Central Coast and has been the backbone of the Rights @ Work campaign on the Central Coast. She is well regarded by many ALP members because of the hard work she puts in for the community.
By the way the NSW Liberal Party opened up nominations for this year’s Federal election on April Fool’s Day. They are open for about a fortnight. For the first time ever the Party is apparently calling for nominations for all NSW seats at the same time, such is the unacceptable late time frame. Just hopeless.
Anyway, friends down in Sydney state that THIS TIME Alan Cadman is a political carcass in Mitchell. He wants to run again. This time he is getting the support of noone bar himself. Question is therefore who will fill this blue ribbon seat? State VP and corporate affairs heavyweight Nick Campbell is the choice of the right and its difficult to see anyone stopping him. Other names include the usual serial candidates such as Nick Berman, Adrienne Ryan, etc. The right hold the numbers easily in Mitchell so it’s simply a matter of who.
According to this webpage: http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/senators/homepages/senators.asp?id=BOT,
Santo Santoro is still a senator.
If Southcott will hold Boothby double digit after the next poll, why isn’t he holding it double digit now?
Question: What rare happening do Andrew Southcott and ACE got in common?
Why double digit in Boothby?
Because ‘traditional’ Liberal and National Party voters (who have shemfully flirted with independents/Greens/’Country’ Labor etc will return to their usual voting patterns this year. Why?
Because the $28.5 million ACTU campaign against the Government might frighten some swinging voters in the marginals, but it will go down like rats poision in traditionally ‘conservative’ voting areas. There was just a small taste of it in the recent NSW election where we witnessed huge swings to the Liberal and National Parties in their traditional seats as voters in these areas recoiled in disgust at the filthy, mendacious, class warfare inspired campaigns of the ALP and the unions.
Seats like Boothby and Sturt will stay Liberal. It’s seats like Makin that will be much more problematic.
have in common
Since Isabella is herself a lowlife grub, she is well informed on the doings of other lowlife grubs. If Nick Campbell is indeed running for Mitchell, we will be hearing LOTS more about this http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2006/s1688866.htm and http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/branch-stacking-rorting-rife-among-nsw-libs/2006/07/17/1152988472833.html and this http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/Liberal-factions-erupt-over-seats/2005/04/22/1114152325950.html
Yawn.
So the worldly Dr Carr thinks he can take the moral high ground because of a few incidents of enthusiastic branch development.
It would probably help if you weren’t an employee of one of the greatest branch stackers the Federal Parliament has seen.
Tell me, do you guys harass and intimidate young women in Melbourne Ports all the time, or is that just on election day?
As for your attempt to denigrate someone for holding mainstream values……….please. Do you honestly think Kevin Rudd would even dare to take the sort of twisted policies and perverted beliefs you have to the electorate? Nope, Kevin will simply attempt to portray himself as a slighty younger, slightly less boring version of John Howard.
So the battle of ideas has already been won and you and your mates didn’t even make it onto the paddock.
Ah, now I know who you are. Ta.
So, Isabella – how do you match up your claim that the ACTU campaign will scare “‘traditional’ Liberal and National Party voters” in an electorate with Boothby with the article below, which actually indicates polls showing that exactly that type of voter is just as unhappy -or even more so- with WorkChoices as the poorer section of the community?: http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,21522801-5007146,00.html
I found the poll mentioned in the above article: http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/0309%20IR%20final.pdf
$5 says Isabella is a bloke.
hmm with Arthur Chesterfield-Evans gone I’ll need to update the milestones in my Democrats Death Countdown..
Isabella said
Dr Andrew Southcott is one of the brightest men in the Parliament. A medical doctor, a casualty specialist, the holder of qualifications in Economics and an MBA.
Which is all true, but he is a deeply unimpressive politician. The few times I’ve talked to Southcott or heard him speak it was exactly like talking to your local GP, he is easy to trust, but not someone who you would believe in to mold the future of your community. He’s not very good in front of an audience, and he certainly doesn’t have the political gravitas that can swing thousands of people to vote for him.
If someone like Amanda Vanstone, that is someone who is not a ‘normal person’ but a true politician, left the senate and ran for Boothby she would hold it with double digits.
Anyone think Richard Frankland will run again?
Isabella,
Andrew Southcott, oops, sorry, Dr Andrew Southcott, is not from the “real world” (which is a very woolly term at the best of times). Lets just take a look at the facts:
1. educated at St Peters College (not in itself a crime, but not a good start either if you aspire to hold an increasingly marginal seat where you need to get out and meet the great unwashed);
2. 6 years at University of Adelaide, far too much of it spent as a student politician;
3. 12 months as a P-plate doctor at hospital;
4. straight into the House of Representatives where, until now, he has never really had to fear for his future.
As a coalition sympathiser, I am often critical of people in the ALP and the minor parties who go straight into parliament (state and federal) without any of the “real world” experience you refer to. Kate Ellis comes to mind. Christian Zahra is another. Natasha. Well sorry to tell you this Isabella, but Dr Southcott and Chris Pyne are no better.
Instead of criticising the ALP for finally lifting their game and luring people like McKew, Gray, Shorten, Garrett and others into parliament or as candidates in winnable seats, perhaps the SA Liberals need to look a little bit beyond the ‘machine’. Incidentally, the Liberals’ SA branch suffers from this as much as any of the state branches.
Bob Day is a great choice for Makin and will maximise the possibility of this seat being held for the Liberals. If he gets over the line, he will be an excellent local member. Chris Gallus was an excellent local member, as were Trish Worth and Michael Pratt. Gallus and Worth managed to defy gravity on several occasions and Pratt nearly managed to retain Adelaide when it was still a very safe ALP seat after a shock by-election win. Even Alexander is well liked amongst his constituents – the general comment you get from people in Mayo who have met Downer and are not ALP members is that he is nowhere near as pompous and pontificating as what he appears to be on the television. All of these people had plenty of life experience before getting into parliament. Southcott and Pyne, on the other hand, have about 15 minutes between them and that could be decisive in Sturt and Boothby.
Incidentally, its often forgotten that the Democrats got uncomfortably close to Southcott on a couple of occasions, in the sense that they nearly overtook the ALP on primary votes with Southcott staying well under 50%. So forget about that double-digit 2PP Isabella
Over the course of a decade, Dr Southcott’s exceptional performance as a local member and Liberal Party candidate has been reflected in numerous notable results.
Dr Southcott has, without the hysterics we see all too often from our political candidates, despatched concerted and well-funded efforts by individuals such as Jo Pride and local mummy’s girl Chloe Fox.
No doubt we will see the same confident, statesman-like efficiency from Dr Southcott once again this year.
I recall that a Heather Southcott was a Democrat state MP at one time. Was she his mother?
I note Victorian Labor has written Dunkley off. If there was a big swing would it be at risk? Has its social composition drstically changed from when it was Labor?
Speaker i raise you to 10$ that “Isabella” is not only a bloke but a reincarnation of a certain troll we had here a few weeks ago. Maybe also goes by “Nostrodamus” on another blog.
The social composition hasn’t changed much, but the boundaries have. When Labor last won Dunkley in 1993 (with a 2PV of 50.3) it ran from Frankston to Chelsea. The 1996 redistribution shifted it south so it ran from Seaford to Mornington, a shift in the 2PV of (by my calculation) 3.3%.
What makes you say Labor has written it off?
Adam, do you really think that the ALP will put in a lot of resources to win a seat that requires a 9.4% swing when there is a lot of lower hanging fruit in Victoria – Corangamite, Deakin, McMillan and McEwan? and despite the ALP looking good they have a few of their own that are very marginal and will need to be defended – Bendigo, Holt and Isaacs.
BTW – who does have ALP preselection in Corangamite?
re sa
Boothby and Sturt are usually reliable liberal seats.
I would be suprised if either were won by the ALP
(although SA state election figures show what is possible.)
Makin, Kingston and Wakefield will be the seats that come into play at the
next federal election.
I think the other seats will not change sides
Um, I didn’t say they would – I asked Geoff for the source of his statement that Labor has written off Dunkley. Maybe they have, and maybe they should, but I’d like to know where it has been said publicly
Corangamite: Darren Cheeseman, a former Ballarat councillor. I know nothing about him but at least he’s not Peter McMullin.
Martin Hamilton-Smith as the new SA Liberal leader will be worth about 5% to the Federal Liberal vote in South Australia come the Federal election.
Whether its a plus or negative 5% will be the big question.
I must join with Mick Quinlivan when he states he would be surprised if the Liberals lost Boothby. Contrary to what Chris from Edgecliff says, a quick glance on the AEC website shows that Southcott’s primary has barely dropped below 50%, and certainly wasn’t when he went up against Chloe Fox at the last round.
I’ve been a resident of Boothby for years and, much to my continued disgust, the ALP have done nothing more than scramble and talk in the final months leading up to an election. My opinion is that a well organised opposition will keep the incumbent fresh and on their toes, it’s particularly annoying then that I haven’t seen any presence from Labor since 2004, and that their ‘favourite’ candidate is best known as a failed Mayoral candidate. Hardly a star-prospect!
Southcott’s been here for 10 years, and has a record of getting a solid primary vote come election day. Snow might think he’s unimpressive, but I have to admit he’s a local and seems to have plenty of results to print on paper and stick in my letterbox.
Hell, just look in today’s paper. Kirk turned down Rudd’s offer of standing for Boothby – so she must still consider Boothby fairly Liberal. It’s a pity they don’t have a more committed challenger frankly.
I’ve seriously lost track of all the state liberals leaders now – esp. since there’s been so many churned through. Who is the longest Lib state leader now?
MH-S is about number 25 (give or take) of State Liberal leaders to take office since the Party last won a State election.
Longest serving State/Territory leader I think would be Carney up in the Northern Territory.
Watch this space though – Colin Barnett will return and take the leadership of the WA Liberals soon, and will most probably be the one to break the political drought. You heard it here first.
I reckon Chris from Edgecliff needs to get his facts straight. In 2001, the Democrats vote peaked at 19% in Boothby – hardly close enough to have Southcott feel “uncomfortable” considering his vote was up around 50%.
Further still, he did not just work as a p-plate doctor for 12 months. He worked for four years in Adelaide’s major teaching hospitals and then worked for a year in locum jobs.
He also completed basic surgical training and was working as a surgical registrar when he was pre-selected for Boothby. I think its impressive that he gave up a lucrative career to represent the people of Boothby.
He could have lived a private life, but instead decidied to work for the community in the public eye.
Plus, if people think Labor will take Boothby and Sturt – where are the candidate’s?? I heard Bruce Hull could be the Labor candidate for Boothby, someone who failed to win anything in the Marion Council elections!!
I don’t think Labor care to much for Boothby or Sturt.
OK, as no one knows or cares, both ACE and Southcott stopped senior surgical training to become politicians. I think both jobs are crap but a surgeon gets paid a lot more.
You won’t think it’s crap the day you get acute appendictis (speaking from experience)
I agree with Geoff R about Dunkley. It doesn’t have to be said in public. Ask your ALP insiders, Adam.
a p p e n d i c i t i s
Geoff said: “I note Victorian Labor has written Dunkley off.” I asked him what was his source for that statement, and for this I get attacked by all and sundry. What is it with people here?
Adam,
I hope I am not included in “all and sundry”. I wasn’t attacking you. I was just agreeing with Geoff and suggesting that ALP insiders might say to you what they won’t say in public.
The comments on this blog have been disgraceful in the disrepectful attack on the great Dr Andrew Southcott MP.
Dr Southcott has been one of the true and staunch defenders of freedom in our federal Parliament:
– He stood firmly in support of the freedom of students in the successful fight against enforced student unionism on our campuses;
– He has been one of the few recent advocates of freedom to address the General Assembly of the United Nations; and
– He continues to chair with distinction the Joint Standing Commitee on Treaties (where he was highly instrumental in the achievement of the US-AUS-FTA).
In 2001, the Democrats threw all they had to try and unseat the great Dr Southcott. This was during the high water mark of the popularity of the Democrats in South Australia, polling 20% in Boothby. Yet, Dr Southcott prevailed.
In 2004, young Chloe Fox threw all her resources trying to unseat our great champion. Again, Dr Southcott prevailed. (Ms Fox was forced tail between her legs to settle for a seat in the state parliament)
In 2007, whatever is said on this blog, there is no doubt that — with all the hard work he puts into representing Boothby including the local people of Marion, Mitcham, Oaklands Park and Brighton — the great Dr Southcott will prevail. And our nation is all the better for it.
According to this webpage: http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/senators/homepages/index.asp?sort=state,
Santo Santoro is no longer a Senator.
Hallilujah, Sasha. Are the gang of three implicated in the print scam still in the house of Reps?
Nostradamus is never so rude as Isabella has been
Barnett WA Liberal leader again? After the way he snatched defeat from the jaws of victory 2 years ago? By golly, those poor WA Libs don’t have much talent in their ranks, do they :S
Sorry to preempt you William and Antony, but today I am launching my Guide to the 2007 Australian Federal Election
at http://psephos.adam-carr.net/
Comments, news and corrections from Poll Bludger regulars are welcome
Adam,
Wow. I am impressed
Apologies to the following for the delay in moderating their comments: Sam, Falvio Sammut, Julian B, Jack, G Robertson and Marc Aussie-Stone. If anyone’s interested, I’ve been busy hauling my arse to Melbourne, where I will be spending the next 10 weeks or so.
Adam
Great work on the election guide!! I am sure it will be referred to many times over the coming months!!
one point does come to mind – in several of the safer liberal seats you talk about them trending to labor on issues such as immigration. etc. and very true that is. It is also worth noting that in many of these seats the liberals are polling distinctly better at the state level (the state seats in Kooyong, Bradfield and Warringah come immediately to mind). Therefore, under John Howard the liberal vote is softening in these seats but the ALP is unlikely to get any long term traction.
Blackburn, that’s certainly true. There is a broad class re-alignment going on, and Labor is losing out as a result, particularly in a system of single-member seats. Labor’s support is increasing in upper-income urban areas, but not enough actually to win a seat like Kooyong, while Labor’s support is softening in outer suburban seats like Holt and Isaacs (mortgage belt seats), which Labor could actually lose. This is on top of the loss of regional seats as a result of demographic change and the increasing size of these seats – thus Broken Hill, Bundaberg, Whyalla, Kalgoorlie, the LaTrobe Valley, can no longer deliver enough votes to win a federal seat.
Impressive guide Adam – and in the Senate one you say the truth that Nettle will not be re-elected – one has a limit to how much Greens wishfull thinking they can take.
A great guide Adam – but out of curiosity, is Family First ignored because of their ideological bent (the “Faliban”) or because of perceived irrelevance?
He isn’t saying Nettle won’t be re-elected. He’s saying that if the votes all stay the same she won’t be re-elected.
Here’s another revelation: if all votes stay the same the Howard Government will be re-elected!