The much-loved Idle Speculation series will henceforth double as a vehicle for updates on preselection and other election-related action. Developments of note from the past week:
Queensland Senate (Liberal): Next Saturday, about 250 Queensland Liberal preselectors will determine who will fill the vacancy created by Santo Santoro’s departure. The person chosen will serve out the remainder of Santoro’s term, which ends in July next year. What happens then is yet to be determined. Before Santoro’s departure, the party had decided upon a ticket with Ian Macdonald at number one, Santo Santoro at number two, Young Liberals president Mark Powell at number three, and businesswoman and disabled advocate Sue Boyce at number four. The party administration is yet to determine whether the second position will be filled by promoting Powell up the order, or by holding a new preselection. Many an eyebrow was raised last weekend when Powell withdrew from the race to fill the short-term vacancy, instead throwing his support behind former state party leader Bob Quinn (who reportedly has the support of the Prime Minister). This was despite Powell’s links to the Santoro faction and its traditionally strained relations with Quinn. The Gold Coast Bulletin reports speculation that "the Santoro mob have withdrawn their candidate and opposition to Mr Quinn so they can regroup before the federal election to push Mr Powell into the No. 2 spot, hoping Mr Quinn’s popularity, if he is a Senator then, would be enough to launch all three into the Senate from the third position". A further motivation might have been a desire to thwart Sue Boyce, the favoured candidate of state party leader Bruce Flegg. Flegg’s "western suburbs" grouping played a similar spoiling role against Powell last year when it blocked his preselection bid for Quinn’s old state seat of Robina, by shifting support from its own candidate to the unaligned Ray Stevens. Other candidates for the Senate vacancy include Ted O’Brien, chairman of the Australian Republican Movement; David Moore, staffer to Longman MP Mal Brough; and Doug Young, a lawyer "specialising in the resources sector".
Queensland Senate (Greens): Fairfax’s Brisbane Times website reports that environmental lawyer Larissa Waters is believed to have had a "landslide" win over Juanita Wheeler in last Thursday’s Greens preselection vote. Andrew Landeryou‘s sources have told him of a 300-100 margin in Waters’ favour, although Greens supporters might be inclined to take issue with aspects of Landeryou’s account. The party is "expected to make an announcement" of the result next week.
NSW Senate (Labor): The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Labor’s state general secretary Mark Arbib is contemplating a run for the Senate, contrary to earlier reports he hoped to unseat the notoriously unproductive Michael Hatton in the safe lower seat of Blaxland. It is reported that two of Labor’s winnable seats will go to incumbent Ursula Stephens of the Right and Australian Manufacturing Workers Union national secretary Doug Cameron, who has the numbers to unseat incumbent George Campbell for the position reserved for the Left. It is not clear which of the three hopefuls would take the safe first and second positions, and which would have to settle for the dubious third. Anne Davies of the Sydney Morning Herald reports speculation that Arbib’s jockeying for union support played a role in state Blacktown MP Paul Gibson’s ill-fated appointment to cabinet.
Page (NSW, Nationals 5.5%): Clarence Valley councillor Chris Gulaptis has won the Nationals preselection for this north coast seat, which has been left vacant by the retirement of sitting member Ian Causley. The Northern Star reports Gulaptis won "comfortably" with over half the first preference vote, from a field that included local doctor Sue Page, Kyogle mayor Ernie Bennett, Ballina councillor Sharon Cadwallader and radio presenter Neil Marks. The paper also reports that Labor is "at least two months" away from selecting its own candidate. Those said to be "considering" a run are Clarence mayor Ian Tiley and former state MP Janelle Saffin. Saffin was a Lismore-based upper house member from 1995 until 2003, when she withdrew from preselection after it became clear she would not retain a winnable position on the party ticket.
Dobell (NSW, Liberal 4.8%). Amid little fanfare, Health Services Union official Craig Thompson has been endorsed as Labor’s candidate to recover the central coast seat it lost to current Liberal member Ken Ticehurst in 2001.
Fantastic work Adam. Have you ever thought of starting a blog ? I always find your comments quite entertaining.
Peter Stephens: Nettle -might- be re-elected, but she probably won’t be. The certain rise in the Labor vote makes it very tough for her and unlike the Dems the Greens will rarely win the third right-wing seat.
I haven’t deliberately ignored FF. I mention them on the Victorian Senate page, although I don’t think they will elect another Senator. I will list their candidates as they become known. I should have included them on the Links page… and have now done so.
Bill Weller and I have had this discussion several times. It’s a simple matter of arithmetic. If the ALP primary vote reaches or approaches three quotas (42.9%), and if the Coalition vote doesn’t fall too far below three quotas, then minor parties won’t get a look-in, even if their primary vote rises substantially. The Greens could poll 10 or even 12% and still miss out, simply because there won’t be any surplus flowing to them to get them up to a quota. The Greens will need to poll a full quota or very close to it to get elected, and in view only Bob Brown has any chance of doing that. Remember that Garrett polled 10% in 1984 and didn’t get up.
For those interested, I’ve put Newspoll’s state-by-state 2PP results into my pendulum tool to see what would come out:
http://flag.eaglesflyinghigh.com/election/index.php?snap=4
(Data from: http://www.newspoll.com.au/image_uploads/0309%20state%20&%20dem%20final.pdf)
With no data for Tas, or the NT, I’ve used the WA minimal swing since you’d expect that as a minimum, and that swing would result in Labor taking all the seats in Tas and the NT anyway.
I don’t think it was necessary for Labour to wait eleven (or fourteen as the case may be) years to regain power.
You wondered if Labor could really truly be as dumb as they seemed, changing leaders repeatedly while in opposition, and then going to a staid repeat candidate who represented the last of a long dead ministry which didn’t appeal to a modern electorate. Alas yes — but it shouldn’t have taken four whippings for them to figure it out.
The Liberals changed leaders five times while they were in opposition, and after two “new” leaders (Hewson and Downer) failed, they went back to a former leader who had been a senior minister in the former government (Howard). Labor has changed leaders four times. What was the simple solution which Labor was too dumb to see?
Re: Richmond and Page.
In his 1983 policy speech, Malcolm Fraser announced a viability study into diverting the Northern Rivers inland. I remember this more for the put down by one of the commentariat rather than the policy itself. I can’t remember who said it but the quote was “Where did that come from – the fourth class social studies book?”
Now John Howard has proposed diverting the Northern Rivers to SE Queensland. As a result, the population of the North Coast of NSW has (at last) become significantly engaged in the political process. Despite the result in Tweed in the state election, I predict that Richmond will be easily held by Labor and (provided a good candidate is picked and given Causley’s retirement) Labor will pick up Page.
Are there any SEQ seats where this policy of enviromental vandilism will have a significant impact to counterbalance this loss of a seat?”
I have nominated for the position of assistant convener of the SA Greens. Watermelon for the job?
Pardon my ignorance but i never knew Adam was THE Adam Carr. Great site Adam. mmm more reading i love it
You could have included me in the Kingston seat
Do you know anything about this Gulaptis guy? Is there a Nat candidate in Richmond yet? Is there a credible ALP candidate in the offing for Page?
Bill the SA Greens website gives no Reps candidates yet. When they are announced I will put them all in.
Thanks Adam. The Greens office has been slack with that
Adam off the Federal topic for a minute. What was your opinion of Kris Hannah defecting to the Greens then dumping us to be an independent.
“Comments, news and corrections from Poll Bludger regulars are welcome”
The burghers of Devonport will be glad to hear that you consider them more urban than Healesville 🙂
Maxine hasn’t officially been preselected yet has she?
You mean, apart from the obvious fact that all Labor Rats will burn in hell for all eternity?
“The burghers of Devonport will be glad to hear that you consider them more urban than Healesville”
You’ll have to tell me what you mean by that
And, yes, she has.
Interesting to note again the glowing reports of Richardson and his work in Kingston. After the last few MPs we had here who did very little, Richardson seems like a shining light to many. Some green voters ( not members ) have told me that he will get their second preferences. I think Kingston will be tighter than most are expecting and Greens / FF preferences will be important. What might make it more interesting is the possible running of at least 3 independents. Rishworth is trying hard but seems out of her depth at this time. I think not living and breathing the electorate has caused her problems but i am sure she will learn about the area in good time.
“The burghers of Devonport will be glad to hear that you consider them more urban than Healesvilleâ€
“You’ll have to tell me what you mean by that”
The answer I fashioned to your trivia question.
You claim that Fran Bailey’s claim to be the first woman to represent a rural seat in the HoR is correct. Ergo Braddon, held by Enid Lyons in its previous incarnation as Darwin must be an urban seat by your reckoning.
“And, yes, she has.”
So I see, last week. Missed that…
I contacted the ALP when Hannah was the ALP member and Nick Bolkus sent him to me to join me up. Between the time that i was thinking of membership and when he came i decided to join the Greens and told Hannah that and with his left views he should to. Months later he did to my amazement. I do not claim to have influenced Hannah but it was a good story until he ratted on us too.
Bill, in a suburban seat such factors rarely matter much. If the swing is on, with a margin of 0.1, it won’t matter if Rishworth has never set foot in Kingston, or indeed if she has two heads and a tail, she will win in a canter. Look at the SA state election: the local reputation of members like Joe Scalzi didn’t help them a bit. In a big swing suburban seats go down like ninepins.
I am 3 hours south of Grafton, so I hear a little but not much. I haven’t heard of Gulaptis. I have met Kevin Bell who was the Labor candidate last time. He is a nice guy but my wife tells me that nice guys come last. I doubt if he will stand again.
OK I understand now. I suppose it’s debateable whether Darwin in 1943 was an urban seat or a rural seat. Of course it had some farmers in it, but I would think (without checking) that most of its votes were cast in Devonport, Burnie and the west coast mining towns. I would probably class it as a provincial seat.
Kingston is really two seats Urban and rural/seaside/township. What worries me is that the people that like Richardson are in the High Green booth areas.
Trevors Bio
http://nsw.nationals.org.au/html/nsw-upper-house.cfm
sorry wrong list
At a quick count, about two-thirds of Kingston’s votes are cast in the suburban belt between Hallett Cove and Port Noarlunga. The rest are cast in the seaside towns further south or the inland towns. If the suburban voters behave like suburban voters in most places they won’t care much who the local candidates are, they will vote for or against Howard and Rudd, based on broad economic issues such as fear of interest rate rises versus fear of Work Choices.
Adam said
If the suburban voters behave like suburban voters in most places they won’t care much who the local candidates are,
That is really sad. True but sad. You might as well put a two clowns as candidates. Thats why i admire independents. The have to work to win not sit back on their leaders back
Adam you show how negative the whole election process is. I can see why the Anarchists dont have time for it
Au contraire, I think voters are quite right to concentrate on the big picture and not be distracted by the populist antics of local candidates. It really doesn’t make a lot of difference whether Richardson or Rishworth (or Weller) is the member for Kingston, except inasmuch as they are a vote in Parliament for a Howard or a Rudd government.
Is the Mika Kabacznik-Weller who stood for Mawson at the state election a connection of yours?
“ratted” in politics is an awful word and it should be cast aside.
It has a long and distinguished pedigree. Churchill, who went from the Tories to the Liberals and then back again, said “Anyone can rat, but it takes a certain amount of ingenuity to re-rat.”
There’s also the Henry Lawson poem “Too old to rat.”
I don’t care if the cause be wrong
Or if the cause be right —
I’ve had my day and sung my song
And fought in the bitter fight.
In truth at times I can’t tell what
The men are driving at.
But I’ve been union thirty years
And I’m too old to rat.
And here http://www.hyperhistory.org/index.php?option=displaypage&Itemid=712&op=page we find
In 1827, the great English historian Thomas Babington Macaulay used the term ‘rat’ to describe someone who deserted the cause of the people in the struggle for liberty – meaning the struggle for a parliamentary system with real power, not just a rubber stamp for the monarch. And this usage is probably adapted from naval history, from the belief that rats desert a sinking ship. Writing in a journal called the Edinburgh Review, Macaulay described Thomas Wentworth (Lord Strafford), an adviser to King Charles I, as a ‘Rat’ with a capital ‘R’. Indeed he called him the ‘first of the Rats’ – suggesting that the term ‘Rat’ might have been used during the English Civil War (1640-42) – two hundred years before Macaulay was writing. He depicted Wentworth as a turncoat who had deserted the popular cause, who had sided with the king in defiance of the Parliament. Macaulay thought Wentworth had no excuse for changing sides. He wrote: ‘He knew the whole beauty and value of the system which he attempted to deface. He was the first of the Rats …’. This is, so far as we know, the earliest usage of the term ‘Rats’ to convey the meaning of a political traitor to the popular or people’s cause.
Adam, I think that you may be wrong about Kingston, and Scalzi for that matter.
Hartley was soft up to and into the state election campaign and it was Portolesi’s amazing campaign, which included exploiting her strong links to the community, that got her over the line.
But I also think that Bill is serioulsy underestimating Rishworth.
What I’m getting at is that both Kingston and Makin are softer for Labor then the margins would seem to suggest, the only one to thats really looking good for SA Labor is Wakefield and that’s offset by the short margins in Hindmarsh and Adelaide.
When it comes to federal elections SA Labor has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory for the last few elections, they would have to do something quite different this time to walk away with 3 extra seats, regardless of the polls
I don’t claim any great knowledge of SA state politics, but I remember being told that Scalzi was a very popular local member, and my point was that that didn’t help against the big swing – the swing in Hartley was 6.8, which was bigger than the swings in Mawson and Light, though less than those in Bright and Morialta.
Federal seats are bigger and so one would expect local candidate factors to matter less, particularly since federal elections are much less about local matters than state elections are. In a suburban federal seat, I stick to my view that candidate factors don’t matter much, although in a really close result they can of course make a difference. Trish Draper’s scandals weren’t enough to put her out of Makin, because the voters rightly decided that not making Mark Latham PM was more important.
If Labor wins three (or four, or five) seats in SA it won’t have much to do with the competence or otherwise of the SA Labor Party. It will be because the Adelaide suburbs have had enough of Howard and have decided to go with the Ruddslide. Unless Mike Rann is caught in bed with the Vienna Boys Choir, voters won’t be thinking about local matters at all.
Adam says:
” Do you know anything about this Gulaptis guy? ”
Chris Gulaptis is a Councillor on Clarence Valley Council. He was Mayor of Maclean Shire prior to the merger of Grafton City, Maclean, Copmanhurst and Printine Waters Shires to form Clarence Valley Council in 2004.
Gulaptis led the campaign opposing the merger which made him extremely popular in Maclean Shire and unpopular in Grafton. The bad feeling in Grafton may have worn off now that the new council is functioning well.
His main support base, the former Maclean Shire, is only partially in Page electorate. He lives in Yamba which has been moved into Page at the latest redistribution. The town of Maclean and other areas in former Maclean shire that are south of the southern river bank remain in Cowper. There is a Page booth in Maclean but it is my understanding that this is only used by people who come into town from the various islands or north of the river.
Gulaptis’s occupation is Surveyer/Property Developer. More information about him can be found on the Clarence Valley Councillors page http://www.clarence.nsw.gov.au/cmst/cvc009/lp.asp?cat=51
He only became a member of the National Party since the last federal election.
Adam
Mika Kabacznik-Weller is my wife
I also concur with the complimentary remarks towards Adam’s guide. I’ve read through a fair a bit of it now.
Just a couple of errors I’ve noticed:
* Jann McFarlane was not the only Sandgroper in caucus to come down on Latham’s side. The late Peter Cook did so too.
* The 1988 Port Adelaide by-election was triggered by Mick Young’s resignation, not death. (Speaking of deceased Labor MPs…) Young died some years afterward.
Adam
I do agree with you Rand is one of 2 competant political leader in Australia and Labor will do better in Adelaide this federal election
To all labor/union supporter out there I have this question I would like to pose to you
I do not see how Workchoices can decrease the wages of Australian, yeah you might lose penalty rates in the short term but wage rise will more than make up for these small loses.
We are >1 year in and all evidence so far is that employers are more likely to hire people under workchoice, since we have 40 year low unemployment rate. Since employer under 100 staff (small business) can easier lay off staff, they are more likely to hire and not be left with staff who is unsuited for the job.
What does this mean? Supply of labour has remained constant, Demand for labour has risen? So wages in the long term has to rise, it is simple supply and demand, anyone in year 10 doing business/economics can tell you the same thing!
My view is that the unions are doing everything they could to keep wages down by reducing the demand for labour …….. So people feels insecure and want to join a union ……. is that what is really happening?
Great election guide Adam. Though in the seat of Bonner (Qld), Ross Vasta MP is up against Cr Kerry Rea (not “Ray”).
Yeah Awesome guide Adam … Can I add that Brendan Nelson was made Education Minister, not Health Minister, after the 2001 election … ?
Thanks for those corrections.
dovif, my problem isn’t so much with wages as in employment. The current disabled to work strategy is for agencies/gov to pay a company to do on the spot traing for a month and then employ the person. Unfortunatly, in 95% of cases, the disabled person is kicked out after the month is up.
Before workchoices this was down to 25% of cases.
Figures from Disabled Workers Advocacy in Melbourne.
dovif – it is easy to construct correlations between different things, it is much harder to show causations.
The deamons of Workchoices are all in peoples minds. Opening up wages and conditions in this form is good for the unemployed adn low skilled workers in that they have more opportunities, and more opportunities lead to increased wages in the medium term.
courier mail today shows that the industry that was supposed to harass its workers the most using workchoices, hospitality, has increased number of employees by something like 12.5% over one calender year.
Make no mistake workchoices is about one thing-limiting unions power- and since unions can often be held accountable for high wage low productivity sectors, it is about time someone took the unions on, they have no place in modern world.
(high wage low productivity example, the wharves and the MSU, before Reith broke them – it is right to give thanks and praise)
Andrew, do any associations of employees have any place in the modern world?
Adam, Congratulations on your excellent election guide.
One small query.
“Werriwa is thus one of only four seats which have been held by more than one party leader (the others being Higgins, Hunter and Kooyong).”
Does Richmond meet the critieria for this list (J.D. Anthony & C. Blunt)?
Some social clubs can be fun