Stuart by-election live

8.05pm. I suppose I should point out that Labor’s vote has fallen from 71.3 per cent at last year’s election, but that was a two-horse race. The two-party result is 68.7-31.3 (with Japanangka in second place), a remarkably modest swing of 2.6 per cent.

7.45pm. Wow, results – all at once. As expected, Karl Hampton has won easily. With all the booth results in, he is on 1123 votes for 58.2 per cent of the total. In second place is former Labor MP Gary Cartwright with 14.6 per cent. Of the two CLP candidates, Rex Granites Japanangka is outpolling Lloyd Spencer-Nelson 11.1 per cent to 7.8 per cent; of the independents, Anna Machado is on 7.1 per cent and the reluctant Peter Tjungarray Wilson on just 23 (1.2 per cent).

7.33pm. The NTEO seem to be dragging their heels.

1pm. Not sure how big an audience I’ll attract, but a half-hearted attempt at live-blogging the Stuart by-election count will begin at 6pm Northern Territory time. The count will not be a particularly exciting process, as the entirely remote electorate is served exclusively by mobile booths. Turnout at last year’s election was only 59 per cent (for a total of just 2535 votes) and will presumably be lower still this time. Discontent with the Martin goverment’s indigenous policies should theoretically make the election of interest, but by all accounts the issue will be decided by Labor’s organisational strength in Aboriginal communities. They have also chosen a good candidate – as well as being an indigenous adviser in the Office of Central Australia, Karl Hampton is the coach of the Central Australian Football League club the Pioneers. The CLP seems to have adopted a tactic of clogging the ballot paper with both official and unofficial candidates in the hope of at least embarrassing Labor by suppressing their primary vote. The official candidates are Rex Granites and Lloyd Spencer, described by the Northern Territory News as "Walpiri men with strong cultural links in different areas of the electorate". The independents include Anna de Sousa Machado, who was the CLP candidate at last year’s election; Gary Cartwright, the former Labor member for Victoria River (which became the new electorate of Daly in a redistribution that deprived him of his strongest areas) who is directing preferences to the CLP; and Peter Tjungarray Wilson, who told the ABC he "hates politics and is only running to support fellow candidate Anna Machado".

New South Wales redistribution: take two

The New South Wales boundaries have now been finalised as well. Geographically dramatic changes have been made to the large electorates in the west after the original proposal had Parkes occupying the entire north-western quarter of the state. It has now traded in more than two-thirds of its total area as originally proposed for the Wellington and Mid-West Regional shires to the east of Dubbo. The state’s north-western vastness will instead be divided between Calare and Farrer, the latter of which loses the Murrumbidgee shire to Riverina. All affected electorates are safe for the Coalition except independent MP Peter Andren’s seat of Calare, whose centre of gravity has moved still further from his home base of Orange.

Elsewhere, a small amount of rejigging has been done around the junction of Paterson, Newcastle and Hunter; changes have been made to the boundary between Parramatta and Reid after the original redistribution deprived the former of the Parramatta town centre; and various adjustments have been made affecting the boundaries of Wentworth, Kingsford-Smith and Sydney. The comments thread of the previous entry contains much productive discussion of the likely effect of these changes.

Not quite Wright/In like Flynn

The federal redistribution for Queensland has now been finalised. The most noteworthy amendment following the redistribution committee’s deliberations is that the new division will be called Flynn, in honour of Royal Flying Doctor Service pioneer Rev John Flynn, rather than the original proposal of Wright, in honour of poet Judith Wright (and not former Labor MP and convicted child sex offender Keith Wright, as locals had apparently assumed). There have also been the following amendments to the boundaries as originally proposed:

The augmented Commission acceded to three particular changes affecting the new division, Capricornia, Hinkler and Maranoa. First, the local government area of Mt Morgan was transferred from the Committee’s proposed new division to Capricornia; secondly, the local government area of Biggenden was transferred from the Committee’s proposed new division to Hinkler; and thirdly, the local government area of Wondai was transferred (in order to compensate for loss of enrolment in the new division by the first and second changes) from Maranoa to the new division.

Mount Morgan is a good Labor area just outside Rockhampton, so this amendment benefits Capricornia MP Kirsten Livermore at the expense of Labor’s chances in Flynn. Biggenden and Wondai are Nationals territory, so these amendments should cancel themselves out with respect to Flynn. Maranoa and the redrawn Hinkler are safe enough for the Nationals that the changes to them will not be significant. Based on the original proposal, Malcolm Mackerras calculated the margins at 3.8 per cent for Labor in Capricornia, 7.9 per cent for the Nationals in Wright/Flynn (a good 2 per cent higher than other estimates suggested), 8.8 per cent for the Nationals in Hinkler and 21.0 per cent for the Nationals in Maranoa.

Bits and pieces

• The only seat still in doubt in Queensland is Bundaberg, which looks likely to be won by Nationals candidate Jack Dempsey. Dempsey led 9,778 to 9,568 at the close of count on Saturday, but the ABC computer was pointing to a 0.3 per cent Labor win. This was based on comparison with results from 2004, when Labor did much better on the as-yet-uncounted declaration and pre-poll votes (55.3 per cent versus 36.7 per cent) than polling booth votes (50.4 per cent versus 41.4 per cent). However, that trend is being substantially reversed this time around. Most pre-poll and postal votes have now been counted (roughly two-thirds of the non-polling booth total, itself 16 per cent of the overall total), and Dempsey’s lead has widened to 11,161 to 10,821. Most of the remaining uncounted votes are absentee votes, of which about 5 per cent will be exhausting minor party votes. With similar figures this time, non-exhausting absentee votes will need to break about 920-580 in Labor’s favour (roughly 70-30) if they are to win the seat. Very, very unlikely.

• Charles Richardson of Crikey has been good enough to invoke my words of wisdom while criticising the media for buying Labor’s late-campaign spin about worrying internal polling:

Governments worry obsessively about overconfidence – the twin dangers of (a) seeming arrogant, which puts voters off, and (b) looking invulnerable, which makes voters think they can safely punish them without risking an opposition victory. So when they seem to be getting too far ahead, out comes the famous "private polling" to play down their chances. The media obediently went along. Having spent the previous week reporting the collapse of Coalition support, they started to have second thoughts. As William Bowe, the Poll Bludger, put it on Friday, "momentum is building behind the idea, if not the reality, of a late Coalition revival". But there was never any real evidence for it. The final polls from both Newspoll and Galaxy picked the result almost exactly, while the punters who swung Centrebet’s odds back towards the Coalition in the last week all lost their money.

However, if Glenn Milne in The Australian is to be believed, the Liberals in particular did enjoy a late-campaign recovery that spared them from being reduced to one seat, maybe even less. This of course could be yet another example of journalists receiving selective intelligence designed to serve the ends of those providing it, and should perhaps be viewed in the context of Liberal leadership ructions. It should be noted that Milne is commonly faulted for serving the ends of particular elements in the Liberal Party, intentionally or otherwise.

• Across the border to the west, the by-election for the Northern Territory seat of Stuart will be held the Saturday after next. Labor’s candidate is Karl Hampton, a ministerial officer to the retiring member, Health and Justice Minister Peter Toyne. The CLP is adopting its favoured tactic of running both white (Lloyd Spencer-Nelson) and Aboriginal (Rex Granites Japanangka) candidates (CORRECTION: thanks to Kerry Gardiner in comments for noting both candidates are in fact indigenous), which is calculated to boost its vote in remote communities (a circumstance born of the Territory’s practice of including candidate photos on ballot papers to assist illiterate voters). The party’s candidate at last year’s election, Anna de Sousa Machado, is running as an independent, as is Gary Cartwright, the Labor member for Victoria River (now called Daly) from 1990 to 1994. Rounding out the ballot paper is a third independent, Peter Tjungarray Wilson.

A chart for your enjoyment

It occurs to me that a chart like this is a good way to illustate Queensland’s long, strange electoral history since the onset of the Joh era. Results obtained from the Australian Government and Politics Database, product of the world’s finest political science department.

UPDATE: Why stop there. This chart goes back to 1926, late in the life of the Labor government that came to power in 1915; before that the various conservative groups are too hard to categorise. The Queensland People’s Party and United Australia Party are counted as Liberal.

Break it down

Earlier in the campaign, I had occasion to divide Queensland’s 89 seats into 12 regions in order to compare variations in population growth. I will now use the same regions to compare the size of the two-party swing for and against Labor, after omitting seats where independents or exceptional circumstances interrupted the normal two-party contest. The number in brackets after the name of each region is the number of seats in the sample; the two sets of figures are mean and standard deviation. I will add further commentary regarding the outliers in these samples shortly. UPDATE: See below.

. MEAN SD
Sunshine Coast (4) -4.1 3.6
Gold Coast (8) 2.0 2.6
Northern Brisbane (7) -0.7 1.6
Urban Hinterland (3) 1.6 2.7
Southern Brisbane (13) -1.7 3.5
Central Coast (4) 0.7 4.1
Inner Brisbane (13) -1.9 2.4
Western Brisbane (6) -0.4 2.8
Cairns/Townsville (6) 4.6 2.6
Regional Towns (5) 1.1 3.5
Interior/North (5) 0.2 5.9
Weighted (7) 3.3 3.0

By the way, the regions are listed in order of their rate of population growth, a potentially interesting hangover from the last time I used the table.

Sunshine Coast. The mean figure here would be even more pronounced if you removed Pumicestone, which swung 0.5 per cent to Labor. That would leave Kawana (7.3 per cent), Maroochydore (6.5 per cent) and Caloundra (3.0 per cent). Independent-held Nicklin and Noosa have been excluded, although it’s notable the Nationals were up 6.9 per cent in Nicklin and Labor down 3.1 per cent.

Gold Coast. Most of the results here were roughly status quo compared with 2004, including Gaven, which swung 1.8 per cent where it needed to swing 5.0 per cent if the Nationals were to repeat their April by-election win. The exceptions were the big swings to Labor in Robina (6.5 per cent) and Burleigh (4.0 per cent).

Northern Brisbane. The wild talk about Kallangur amounted to nothing more than a 3.2 per cent swing; all other swings in this region were less than 2 per cent either side.

Urban Hinterland. Not much left of this after you remove Gympie and Nanango – Lockyer (2.8 per cent to Labor), Beaudesert (3.5 per cent to Labor) and Glass House (1.5 per cent to Liberal).

Southern Brisbane. There are two conspicuous outliers here: Chatsworth, where Michael Caltabiano still managed a 9.8 per cent swing compared with 2004, and Cleveland, which lived up to expectations with a swing of 8.0 per cent. Remove those two and you get a mean of -0.4 per cent and a standard deviation of 1.7 per cent. So in other words, an extremely stable picture with a small number of exceptions.

Central Coast. Gladstone and Maryborough are out because of independents, Whitsunday because its 11.0 per cent swing to the Nationals was an outlier born of one-off circumstances. That leaves an evenly mixed bag: Burnett (4.4 per cent to Nationals member Rob Messenger), Hervey Bay (0.8 per cent away from Labor member Andrew McNamara), Keppel (3.2 per cent swing to Labor member Paul Hoolihan) and Mirani (4.7 per cent swing against Nationals member Ted Malone).

Inner Brisbane. Ashgrove (6.7 per cent) and Brisbane Central (5.0 per cent) slightly boost the anti-Labor mean here. Interestingly, Peter Beattie’s margin in the latter has gone over two elections from 25.0 per cent to 14.6 per cent. Removing those two puts the mean at -1.2 and the standard deviation at 1.8.

Western Brisbane. A 4.6 per cent swing against Labor in Inala and a 3.6 per cent swing to them in Ipswich West (a slightly embarrassing outcome for retiring member Don Livingstone) cancel each other out and inflate the standard deviation; the other four seats hardly budged.

Cairns/Townsville. Uniformly excellent results for Labor, the outstanding figure being the 9.6 per cent swing in Thuringowa, partly explained by independents distorting the result in 2004. Removing that reduces the mean to 3.6 per cent and the standard deviation to 1.1. Other swings ranged from 2.2 per cent in supposedly vulnerable Mulgrave to 4.9 per cent in Mundingburra.

Regional Towns. By which I mean Toowoomba, Bundaberg, Mackay and Rockhampton. The only swing against Labor was the 5.0 per cent that has brought Bundaberg down to the wire; remove that and you’ve got a mean of 2.6 per cent and a standard deviation of 0.8.

Interior/North The figures here are not much use, as the results are a testament to the importance of candidates in these areas. First-termers Jason O’Brien (Labor for Cook) and Shane Knuth (Nationals for Charters Towers) picked up 7.6 per cent and 8.4 per cent swings, while the other seats hardly budged.

Weighted. By which I mean the seats that are allowed to have fewer voters than the others because they cover vast geographic areas. This covers eight seats, including Tablelands which is excluded because it is held by One Nation; of the remainder, Mount Isa is held by Labor and the others are held by the Nationals. There was a general swing to Labor throughout the area, only Darling Downs bucking the trend by going 1.8 per cent the other way. Hinchinbrook led the way with a 7.8 per cent swing to Labor, influenced by the retirement of sitting member Marc Rowell.

Queensland election live

9.42pm. As for my own predictions: going on the current ABC computer verdict, I made five wrong calls all pointing in the same direction: Labor leads in Gaven (3.1 per cent), Mudgeeraba (3.5 per cent), Barron River (6.0 per cent), Bundaberg (0.3 per cent), Toowoomba North (11.1 per cent). My last minute amendments ran 2-1 against me, perhaps 3-0 if Liddy Clark holds on in Clayfield.

9.30pm. I’m going out for a smoke. I’ll come back in 10 minutes and try to take a look at the bigger picture.

9.29pm. ABC site still no good for live audio.

9.24pm. Unless I am mistaken, the ABC computer has moved Currumbin from “LIB retain” to “LIB ahead”. However, Jann Stuckey is more than 2 per cent ahead after a full preference count and is surely home.

9.21pm. Here’s one that’s slipped under the radar: the Nationals are cutting it very fine in Burdekin, so no sophomore surge for Rosemary Menkens who won the seat in 2004 from Labor member Steve Rodgers, who is their candidate again this time. Menkens leads 47.1 per cent to 44.8 per cent on the primary vote: 51.2-48.8 after preferences. She should get home, but the ABC computer has revised it down from “NAT retain” to “NAT ahead”.

9.16pm. According to the ECQ, a Labor lead of 245 primary votes in Bundaberg turns into a 210 vote deficit after preferences. In answer to Geoff R’s query in comments, these are real figures and not projections.

9.09pm. News Radio’s have ended their coverage and the local radio broadcast on the ABC website is just producing a whining sound.

9.05pm. Antony Green in comments says he expects Liz Cunningham to hold on in Gladstone.

9.04pm. Noteworthy swings in otherwise unnoteworthy seats. Big swings to Labor in Townsville: 4.9 per cent in Mundingburra and 9.8 per cent in Thuringowa. Good 4.3 per cent swing to Labor in previously marginal Cairns. 8.8 per cent to the Nationals in Whitsunday, a correction after the Dan van Blarcom situation in 2004. Good 4.2 per cent swing to Labor in Springwood. Very strong showing for One Nation’s last survivor Rosa Lee Long in Tablelands, up 4.2 per cent on the primary vote. Good result for Labor’s Tim Mulherin in Mackay, with a 4.8 per cent swing – commenter Geoff Robinson comments on the distinction with Nationals-held Charters Towers which went 8.4 per cent the other way. 5.0 per cent swing against Peter Beattie in Brisbane Central, the second such swing in a row. 4.8 per cent swing to Labor in Nationals-held Mirani. Very good 5.0 per cent swing to Labor in Ipswich West, given the retirement of sitting member Don Livingstone. Another sophomore surge for Rob Messenger in Burnett: back with a 4.4 per cent swing. Huge win for independent Chris Foley in Maryborough with 70.2 per cent of the primary vote, up 5.3 per cent. Very good 4.0 per cent swing to Christine Smith in Burleigh and 4.6 per cent in Inala, where Anastacia Palaszczuk is replacing father Henry. 4.8 per cent swing against Lawrence Springborg in Southern Downs.

8.53pm. Antony Green in comments: “I’d call Chatsworth (for Labor), but can’t because my manual over-ride command won’t work. Only Brisbane City Hall booth to come”.

8.52pm. Since I last commented on Currumbin, the ABC computer has downgraded it from “Liberal gain” to “Liberal ahead’. Member Jann Stuckey leads 47.8 per cent to 42.8 per cent on the primary vote with 72 per cent counted, so probably final for the night. The Greens’ 9.4 per cent would have to flow extremely solidly to make the difference here – Stuckey looks safe to me.

8.50pm. Reader Andrew Owens, an astute observer of these things, points out the Liz Cunningham is not home and dry in Gladstone, although the ABC computer is calling it for her. She is marginally behind on the primary vote, but there’s also 6.0 per cent for the Nationals candidate and John Wanna says he expect a very disciplined flow to Cunningham.

8.49pm. John Wanna reckons Noosa is still in doubt, but I think he’s operating under the full-preferential voting assumption that getting ahead of Labor should be enough.

8.48pm. Dolly Pratt’s primary vote lead in Nanango has widened since I last commented – from roughly 40-all to 44.0 per cent to 39.7 per cent.

8.45pm. Labor did it easily in Redcliffe to complete the by-election revenge hat-trick. 74 per cent counted, they lead 49.5 per cent to 39.7 per cent.

8.43pm. Still only 39 per cent in from Gaven, but the booths are a pretty representative sample of the seat and Labor has a very big lead: 50.1 per cent to 41.2 per cent on the primary vote.

8.36pm. The ABC computer isn’t yet calling it for Labor in Chatsworth, but they lead by 1.6 per cent on the ABC projection and 1.3 per cent on the progressive preference count, which with 76.6 per cent counted (presumably final for the night) should be enough.

8.33pm. Going on the primary vote, I would have thought Labor would get up in Bundaberg – they lead 45.1 per cent to 43.9 per cent on the primary vote. But the Nationals are in fact slightly ahead on the progressive preference count, which is not lagging too far behind the primary vote count (of which there is 70 per cent counted).

8.30pm. The raw primary vote figures for Labor in Clayfield do not look at all good: 67.3 per cent counted, they trail 38.6 per cent to 46.8 per cent. But quite a few preferences have been counted and they only trail 5475 to 5366.

8.29pm. Beattie’s speech was a little on the brief side.

8.28pm. For what it’s worth, the Greens did not direct preferences to Labor in Robina.

8.26pm. Beattie claiming victory.

8.26pm. 61.4 per cent in Robina and it’s very close indeed. New Liberal candidate Ray Stevens has 46.9 per cent to Labor’s 44.5 per cent, which means its up to the Greens’ 8.5 per cent on preferences.

8.23pm. My first good look at Gympie. 54.1 per cent counted. Only 7.4 per cent for Elisa Roberts. Huge lead for the Nationals on the primary vote: 49.0 per cent, daylight second, ex-Labor independent Rae Gate third on 13.1 per cent. Not sure why this should be such a surprise.

8.22pm. John Wanna reckons Indooroopilly is still doubtful, but I do believe Labor have held it.

8.20pm. Still only 35.0 per cent counted in Noosa. Cate Molloy has taken second place, but she trails Liberal on the primary vote 36.7 per cent to 25.6 per cent. Labor preferences would have to flow very heavily to Molloy to get her ahead – it’s technically possible that there will indeed be unusual preference behaviour in this seat.

8.18pm. Let’s take those one at a time. A clear Liberal win in Kawana with a 7.5 per cent swing. As anticipated, there was a swing to the Liberals across the Sunshine Coast.

8.16pm. The ABC projections in brief: Libs gain Kawana and Noosa. Nats gain Gympie. Libs ahead in Robina and Clayfield. Labor ahead in Bundaberg and Chatsworth. Nats ahead in Lockyer. Labor gains Gaven and Redcliffe.

8.13pm. A late surprise in Lockyer – the Nationals are only ahead 1.1 per cent after 44 per cent counted, based on Antony Green’s preference estimate.

8.10pm. Poor old Lawrence is reduced to once again claiming that they have cut margins in important places.

8.03pm. Lawrence Springborg conceding defeat already.

8.01pm. Unexpectedly strong Labor win in Keppel – 6.0 per cent swing with 59 per cent counted.

7.59pm. Still only 36 per cent counted in Clayfield: after Antony Green’s preference estimate, the Liberals lead 1.3 per cent.

7.57pm. Little cheer goes up in the tally room as the ABC Radio presenter declared Caltabiano’s defeat. It may have been unrelated though. Perhaps we could ask Graham Young and Mark Bahnisch.

7.56pm. 2.6 per cent swing to Labor in Toowoomba North after 30 per cent counted. I didn’t have much luck calling to Toowoomba seats last time either.

7.54pm. Sorry, called that wrong. Big swing to LABOR in Robina, consistent with the Quinn effect. He’s only 1.2 per cent ahead.

7.53pm. Caltabiano gone in Chatsworth. Big swing to the Liberals in Robina, contrary to expectations – elsewhere commentators are talking about the “Bob Quinn effect” damaging the Coalition on the Gold Coast.

7.52pm. No swing at all in Aspley, a good win for Labor member Bonny Barry.

7.51pm. A swing of a few per cent to Labor in all Cairns seats, including the supposedly endangered Mulgrave.

7.50pm. A big 8.8 per cent swing against Labor in Whitsunday, but this is a correction after the Dan van Blarcom affair at the 2004 election. Not enough to cost Labor the seat.

7.49pm. Labor 1.3 per cent ahead in Cleveland with 40 per cent – they would be doing very badly to lose from there.

7.48pm. ABC has a 4.4 per cent swing to Labor in Barron River, an outstanding result.

7.47pm. The ABC computer says 61 Labor seats, which sounds a little high. We can say this much: Labor has had a very good win.

7.44pm. The ABC tells us both candidates in Nanango are on roughly 40 per cent. Progressive count after preferences has Dolly Pratt 4.1 per cent ahead so unless there’s some preference quirk here, she should hold. Indooroopilly being called for Labor.

7.43pm. 20.9 per cent counted in Noosa and the ABC has it as a Liberal gain, as I expected. Cate Molloy and Labor have about a quarter of the vote each and little change on the primary vote from 2004.

7.41pm. ABC gives Labor a 1.8 per cent lead in Indooroopilly with 57 per cent counted, which should be enough.

7.40pm. Elisa Roberts discussing the result on ABC Radio. Sounds like an honest Aussie sheila.

7.39pm. Santoro talking up Whitsunday, but he may be grasping at straws from early figures.

7.38pm. Very tight in Bundaberg, Labor slightly ahead.

7.36pm. If I hear right, John Mickel is saying Labor are a big show of beating independent Liz Cunningham in Gladstone, but his figures seem to be lagging far behind the ABC which has it as Independent retain.

7.35pm. Not clear to me why the ABC computer has Chatsworth as an ALP gain – the booth results are only slightly different from the by-election, and I would have thought it would have been very close.

7.33pm. ABC computer now has Clayfield as Liberal ahead.

7.28pm. Labor apparently home in Redcliffe.

7.21pm. ABC computer now has Chatsworth as an ALP gain. More on that shortly. Very early figures for Mudgeeraba but Labor apparently holding up.

7.20pm. ABC computer has Gaven as a Labor gain, but from only 6.3 per cent of the vote.

7.18pm. None of the Nanango booths are from Kingaroy, which you would expect to be big on the Bjelke-Petersen brand name. Kawana obviously lost to Labor.

7.17pm. ABC computer tipping Nanango for John Bjelke-Petersen.

7.16pm. Only 7.3 per cent counted, but a very close outcome looms in Indooroopilly.

7.15pm. Labor primary vote up in Cairns and holding in Hervey Bay, and “encouraging news” on Redcliffe.

7.15pm. A lot of Labor crowing already on ABC Radio.

7.14pm. The ABC computer has retracted its call of Labor holding Clayfield.

7.13pm. Liberals ahead in Cleveland.

7.12pm. There are four booths in from Chatsworth: in each case both parties’ minor votes are up very slightly on the by-election.

7.09pm. Gympie looking good for the Nationals, as I always expected.

7.07pm. Reader Marcus notes that the ABC computer’s Chatsworth call comes despite a primary vote of 54-39 in Labor’s favour. A lot of talk on the radio about this being from the Belmont booths.

7.02pm. Another Green machine news flash: Chatsworth called for the Liberals. Broadwater for Labor.

7.00pm. News flash: Antony Green’s computer calls Clayfield, Keppel and Pumicestone for Labor. More evidence of the anticipated swing to the Liberals on the Sunshine Coast courtesy of Caloundra.

6.59pm. Still only one booth in from Nanango.

6.56pm. Antony Green’s computer calls Currumbin for the Liberals.

6.54pm. Santo Santoro reports a huge swing to the Liberals in Kawana. This was Labor has been thought very unlikely to retain, regardless of what else happens.

6.51pm. Labor reportedly ahead in Chatsworth, although there’s only one booth up: Labor’s primary vote there is similar to 2004, which is a very good sign for them. The Nationals have picked up a big swing in Charters Towers, so things can’t be that calamitous for them.

6.49pm. John Mickel says scruitineers report small swings to Labor in Whitsunday; Labor’s primary vote “holding” in Toowoomba North. On early figures, Kawana falling to Liberal; Labor just in front in Clayfield; line-ball in Indooroopilly.

6.46pm. The Mulgrave results are an real eye-opener. There are big lifts in the Labor vote both in the good Labor booth of Innisfail and the bad one of Miriwinni.

6.43pm. News flash: Antony Green’s calculations on the ABC site call Mulgrave for Labor.

6.42pm. John Mickel on the ABC says there is a big swing to Labor in one booth in Toowoomba North. Still too early to read much in to any of this, but the trend of an anti-Nationals swing in small booths is worth keeping an eye on.

6.42pm. ABC Radio says a 2.7 per cent against Rob Messenger in Burnett, but the ABC website says for.

6.40pm. On the other hand, a 6.4 per cent swing to the Nationals in Whitsunday. The booths here are the touristy ones – Hamilton Island and Hayman Island. Worth noting that this was a disaster zone for the Nationals last time due to their candidate.

6.38pm. The ABC results show an interesting early pattern: swings to Labor in Nationals seats. In each case it’s a very small number, which means these will be naturally inclining Nationals booths in rural areas.

6.35pm. One booth in Broadwater shows a big swing to Labor.

6.34pm. The ABC Radio presenters are getting excited about the first tiny booth in from Nanango, which has a strong showing for John Bjelke-Petersen.

6.07pm. I said live blogging would start at 6pm, so here I am, although I won’t have much to say for about half an hour. Those of you with no idea can acquire one by reading the list of key seats directly below, or the similar outline at Currumbin2Cook.The latter site is busting my live election blogging monopoly this evening, with Graham Young and Mark Bahnisch reporting live from the tally room. Newcomers to the magic of the internet are advised that they can have both open and the same time and effortlessly switch between the two.

Seats to watch

With less than an hour to go before polls close, I am finally withdrawing a few of my predicted Labor victories from my election guide: Clayfield, Barron River and Toowoomba North. I thought long and hard about including Keppel but utlimately decided that Paul Hoolihan would be saved by "sophomore surge". The Labor seats mospt likely to fall would appear to be as follows:

Clayfield (Labor 1.2%):. Writing in the Courier-Mail, ABC Radio presenter Madonna King reports that Liberal insiders believe they will win the seat. The Liberals have been targeting the seat with pamphlets showing a picture of a cemetery with the message: "This is the reality of health care under Peter Beattie". Former Liberal leader Joan Sheldon said on ABC Radio she expected the Liberals to win the seat. The precedent of Currumbin in 2004 is instructive of the potential effects of ministerial controversy, and it has prompted me to change my tip here and give it to the Liberals.

Barron River (Labor 3.1%): My instincts always told me that the retiring incumbent factor should make the difference here, and I have now decided to follow them. Former Liberal leader Joan Sheldon said on ABC Radio she expected the Liberals to win.

Kawana (Labor 1.5%): It is generally thought that the Traveston Dam controversy and the government’s dithering over location of a new hospital will deliver this seat to the Liberals.

Mudgeeraba (Labor 1.9%): A number of reports emerged earlier that Labor had "all but written off " the seat, but it has not been widely discussed late in the campaign. Liberal insiders quoted by Madonna King in the Courier-Mail are "hopeful"; Greg Roberts and Andrew Fraser of The Australian say only that Labor research indicates they “could lose”.

Indooroopilly (Labor 2.1%): Indooroopilly is a natural Liberal seat that must surely return to the fold sooner or later, but there are mixed messages as to whether that time is now. The Poll Bludger hears that this is one seat where Labor’s superior campaign resources has not been apparent, as Liberal candidate Peter Turner has invested heavily in his own campaign. On ABC Radio yesterday morning, Madonna King asked her election panellists why it was more widely anticipated that the Liberals would win Clayfield than Indooroopilly, but failed to extract a response worth relating.

Keppel (Labor 3.8%): Keppel is not natural Labor territory, having been won for them in 2004 upon the retirement of a long-term Nationals member. If there is something in the talk that the Nationals are travelling better in the north than the Liberals in the south, there is a high chance Keppel will return to the fold. Former Labor Treasurer David Hamill was quick to nominate the seat as one that might change hands when speaking on Madonna King’s program.

Aspley (Labor 4.3%): This was specifically nominated by Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail as a seat that had Labor worried, reportedly due to sagging Labor support in the outer suburbs. Madonna King in the Courier-Mail reported bullish noises from the Liberal camp.

Bundaberg (Labor 5.3%): The balance of opinion is that the Coalition’s botched new hospital promise will save Labor’s bacon in the seat that delivered the Jayant Patel affair. My own hesitant judgement is that the apparent certainty of an overall Labor victory will fortify locals to deliver a protest vote.

Toowoomba North (Labor 7.3%): Toowoomba North is being much more widely discussed than other seats with similar margins. Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail says the "local hospital story is shocking and water issues are as hot there as anywhere". The latter are of particular significance given that the Nationals candidate, Toowoomba councillor Lyle Shelton, was the public spearhead of the successful "no" campaign at the referendum on treated sewage water in Toowoomba’s drinking supply.

Pumicestone (Labor 5.4%): Greg Roberts and Andrew Fraser of The Australian report that the seat is "at risk because of the water issue because of the water issue and troubles with Caboolture Hospital"

Going purely on margins, Cairns (3.9 per cent), Hervey Bay (4.0 per cent), Broadwater (4.1 per cent) and Burleigh (5.0 per cent) would look to be well in contention, but they have generated little discussion in the latter half of the campaign. By contrast, interest has been expressed in the following less likely looking seats:

Cleveland (Labor 8.7%): Labor is losing a member of 14 years’ standing in Darryl Briskey. Greg Roberts and Andrew Fraser of The Australian describe the seat as ‘at risk’; Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail named the seat as one of two in which Labor polling was picking up "significant swings"; Madonna King in the Courier-Mail says Labor believes the seat "could be lost".

Kallangur (Labor 13.5%): Madonna King in the Courier-Mail says many Nationals are optimistic about this unlikely looking prospect; Dennis Atkins in the Courier-Mail also refers to "optimistic talk" in the Nationals camp.

Mulgrave (Labor 7.7%): Dennis Atkins is still hearing "optimistic talk" from the Nationals, whose 20-year-old candidate Krista Dunford has proved a hit with the media.

Mansfield (Labor 8.6%): Steven Wardill’s report that this seat has been "targeted" by the Liberals, but says otherwise troubling Labor polling shows them doing better here than in Aspley and Cleveland.

Everton (Labor 11.6%): This seat is off most observers’ radar, but Greg Roberts and Andrew Fraser of The Australian describe it as "at risk".

Redlands (Labor 8.6%) and Whitsunday (Labor 14.8%): Madonna King in the Courier-Mail includes these in a list of seats that many Nationals are "optimistic about".

Then there are the potential Labor gains, the obvious candidates being the three they lost at mid-term by-elections. I am maintaining my assessment that Chatsworth and Redcliffe, which were narrowly won by the Liberals in the context of a low-turnout by-election, will return to the Labor fold; whereas the more naturally conservative seat of Gaven will stay with the Nationals. The remaining omissions from my list are the independent-held seats of Noosa and Gympie, but there has never been much doubt in my mind that these would be won by the Liberals and Nationals respectively. Final tally: Labor 55, Nationals 19, Liberals 10, independent 4, One Nation 1.