Morgan: 52-48 to Coalition face-to-face

Hold the front page: Labor shoots to election-winning opinion poll lead. Well, sort of – the poll comes from the little-reported Morgan face-to-face series, which is noted for leaning heavily to Labor when measured against both election results and other pollsters, and the lead only stands if you allocate minor party and independent preferences according to the result of the previous election. On the primary vote, Labor is at 38.5 per cent (which is half a point higher than the 2010 election result), the Coalition is on 42.5 per cent (43.6 per cent at the election) and the Greens are on 12 per cent. If you assume preferences would behave as they did at the previous election, as most pollsters do, that translates into a 51-49 lead for Labor. However, the Morgan face-to-face series continues to confound by showing minor party and independent voters splitting about 50-50 when asked which of the major parties they would preference, with the result that the Coalition leads 52-48 on the measure Morgan uses at its headline figure. The poll covers the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, from a total sample of 1921.

Morgan poops Labor’s party a little further with the unheralded publication of voting intention figures from a phone survey of what I take to have been about 600 respondents on Tuesday and Wednesday of last week (from which we’d previously seen only this – the sample quoted is 646 persons over 14, the youngest of whom would not have been included in the voting intention figures), which shows Labor doing only slightly better than the overall trend. This poll has the Coalition leading 46.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent on the primary vote, 53.5-46.5 on previous-election preferences and 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, with the Greens on 9 per cent. The Labor primary vote is the highest they have recorded at any phone poll (Newspoll, Nielsen, Morgan or Galaxy) since the middle of March 2011, although the margin of error on this occasion is a high 4 per cent.

Going back to the middle of the last year, Labor’s respondent-allocated preference share from pollsters who publish figures for this has been 63.1 per cent from Nielsen polls, 61.8 per cent from Morgan phone polls (of which there have been five) and 49.7 per cent from Morgan face-to-face polls. At the 2010 election it was 65.7 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,746 comments on “Morgan: 52-48 to Coalition face-to-face”

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  2. g

    The ship’s cat beat the men to the ship’s rats so they got hungry.

    Bargemen and water boatmen got to the flour before the ship’s cook?

  3. William@2685 – beautifully put.

    Catalyst – good points at 2686. I don’t care if they belong to a political party but I’d like it declared as well as any other conflict of interest (Alan Kohler – mining interests, etc), so that we can decide for ourselves whether their opinion is balanced or biased.

    I’d also like the Canadian system where factual reporting of news is the go and stiff penalties are given for distortion or fabrication.

    The sooner we get all this the better. I have never been more appalled by the media. What we’ve seen and what Abbott and Pyne have been allowed to get away with this weekend is unethical. It’s no longer a political game and, anyone who excuses them by saying that’s what opposition politicians do, is demeaning our democracy further.

  4. CTar1
    [The Press play their part in these ‘pressers’ so they get to ask at least some questions. They won’t give up easily.]
    Not easily. But if this were a journalists’ Dorothy Dixer, then the repercussions have been so manifestly evident, that the scandal might stick more and have greater consequence…that all political parties probably have skeletons in the cupboard might be a factor though (where are the fearless Greens on this media cover-up?)

  7. Boerwar

    [p
    The key question is how do they know where to go and what can the USN do about that]
    That is the sad part for the Americans. They currently can do little but keep out of range. However the main game will be the super tankers in Hormuz ,they will be cactus and with them the world economy. Good luck also to American forces in Iraq when Iran gives their Shia allies the nod to attack.
    Considering recent comments perhaps the Russians will supply the promised S-300 anti aircraft missiles to Iran ? That would be a real game changer.

  11. [gusface

    Posted Sunday, January 29, 2012 at 10:16 pm | Permalink

    dee B

    A lemur

    it bit the wireless operator on the hand

    btw the lemurs name was mah- jongg
    ]

    Gus, Tweeted Tracey Spicer on Mystery voice – the silence is telling – they are fiercly protecting one of their own while using Hodges as a Sacraficial lamb

  12. BoerWar – I was saying same to someone recently! A Lloyds syndicate? Big call 500m!

    Imagine the ongoing cost to insure their other ships – and the ‘crashed’ one only 2 years old ..

  17. CTar1
    [But any serious threat to attack oil shipping would have the insurance companies say ‘no’ to ships transiting no matter what the US said … world economic havoc.]
    Exactly. Apart from the high tech stuff they have thousands of smaller missiles perfect for taking out oil tankers. No oil tankers through Hormuz = Cactus world economy.

  19. [DavidWH
    Posted Sunday, January 29, 2012 at 10:19 pm | Permalink
    Fredn hopefully they will both end up finishing second.]

    David, the only unknown in the Queensland election is how the LNP will manage to snatch defeat from Victory this time.

  20. Frank Calabrese

    [2676
    ockerguy

    More twaddle from as Ruddista – how surprisement.]
    But but but Frank, the second coming of Rudd is nearly upon us. The meeja told me so just hours ago 😆
    [KEVIN RUDD will use the election campaign in Queensland as the springboard for a renewed push to wrest the prime ministership back from Julia Gillard, Labor Party insiders predict]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/poll-puts-rudd-in-spotlight-20120128-1qn1r.html#ixzz1kqU4AUAb

  22. The RAF pilots used to call their nukes, ‘Little cans of instant sunshine’. I assume ‘sunburst’ has the same sort of in-joke implication.

    With that cheery thought, good night all.

  23. @poroti 2707

    Russia cancelled the sale of the S-300 missiles to Iran due to UN sanctions. Iran claims to have 2 systems from Belarus and 2 from an unspecified country.

    However, they may be using their current S-300’s to create a derivative called the Bavar 373. This is unverified, and if it is true, the Bavar’s would most likely have reduced performance, but Iran will still probably take out quite a few aircraft if the war starts.

  24. [
    Lists

    »

    frankscan65Frank Calabrese

    @

    @LachlanFHarris Lachlan, do you recognise the voice of the female reporter who asked Abbott THAT question at Opera house ?

    1 minute ago FavoriteReplyDelete

    LachlanFHarrisLachlan Harris

    Tony Hodges is a top bloke & loyal Labor man. I think most press secs will hear that story and think, there but for the grace of god goes I

    28 Jan ]

    lets see if Lachie will turn up the goods 🙂

  25. Poroti – Some time has gone past and Frank hasn’t delivered the details.

    If he’s checked out ‘Sylvia’ on the net I hope he knows how to cleans his browser cache.

  26. Boerwar

    [The RAF pilots used to call their nukes, ‘Little cans of instant sunshine’. I assume ‘sunburst’ has the same sort of in-joke implication.]
    They can carry nuclear warheads so maybe that is behind the NATO designation “Sunburn”. The Ruskies call them Moskit, as in mosquito.

  28. [KEVIN RUDD will use the election campaign in Queensland as the springboard for a renewed push to wrest the prime ministership back from Julia Gillard, Labor Party insiders predict]

    How exactly does that work? When Queensland Labor are left with 10 seats will Rudd go to caucus and say that this is what happens when a woman leads the party?

    [Labor insiders say Mr Rudd’s involvement in the campaign for the March 24 election is designed to boost his profile, highlight the disparity in popularity between the former and present prime ministers, remind his caucus colleagues how crucial Queensland is in the next federal election – and inevitably stoke leadership tensions. ]

    You mean repeating what the media has been saying for the last 18 months?

    [John Howard’s former adviser, Grahame Morris, said federal Labor had to pick up four or five more seats in Queensland if it was to have any chance of retaining government.]

    Yes, Coalition is in government right now because Labor doesn’t have those extra Queensland seats. Oh wait…

  29. Frank – They all keep saying ‘Tony Hodges is a top bloke’.

    In other words, ‘Tony – Keep your mouth shut or you’ll never work again’.

    🙂

  32. [

    gordongrahamGordon Graham

    #Galaxy Preferred ALP Leader: Rudd 52, Gillard 30

    34 seconds ago FavoriteRetweetReply

    gordongrahamGordon Graham

    #Galaxy ALP Primary Vote 34 (+5) http://bit.ly/xXuHsb

    1 minute ago

    gordongrahamGordon Graham

    #Galaxy ALP 46 (+4) L/NP 54 (-4) (since October)

    1 minute ago ]

  33. Call me a dreamer, well maybe I am, but I would like to see the supposedly impartial media disclose a few facts about themselves. What I would like to see is full disclosure of any reporter’s political views or affiliations- membership of political party, close ties to any Mp or minister, senator, had worked for an Mp, senator, or political party. Also how about salary disclosure? Fat cats or battlers?

    Don’t worry. We like to import ideas from overseas. At some point a Leveson or similar enquiry will look like a good idea. But there’ll need to be some proof of illegal activity in order for that to come about.

    I think it’s coming. Newspapers are progressively losing readership to other sources of information. Right now they’re railing against it all. But at some stage they’ll realise that they need to compete, to have an upper edge. Somebody will slip up going a little too hard after an exclusive story. It’s inevitable.

  35. [#Galaxy Preferred ALP Leader: Rudd 52, Gillard 30]

    Guess what the Murdoch and therefore ABC headline will be…?

    My Labor caucus straw poll : Gillard 89 Rudd 3 plus some undeclared…

  36. [But among Labor voters, Gillard and Rudd are neck and neck, with Gillard ahead 49-48. It is Coalition voters who overwhelmingly want Rudd 53-21. Perhaps it is like other polls that show Labor supporters prefer Malcolm Turnbull over Tony Abbott.]

    Oh jezus, and that is bad news for PM Gillard. But this is good news:

    [THERE is some encouraging but also depressing news for Julia Gillard in the first Galaxy poll of the year.

    Labor’s primary vote has jumped by a statistically significant five points since the last Galaxy poll in October to be 34 per cent. It’s nowhere near enough to win an election, but for most of last year the ALP’s core support languished in the 20s so it will be welcome news, particularly after the rocky start to this year.

    This has lifted Labor’s two-party vote from 42 to 46 per cent, which Galaxy pollster David Briggs says puts the ALP within striking distance of the Coalition.]

  37. Galaxy confirms what Essential as being saying for weeks now – Labor improved from the bad days of 60-40 – but still long way to go

  39. Re the Galaxy vote – I don’t think it’ll stop journalists carrying on about how the ALP need to get their PV out of the 20s. They loooooove saying that.

    I’ll make a prediction re Newspoll – once it’s out, the whole Lobby-gate saga will be dropped like a hot potato. It will have served its purpose.

  45. If the tent embassy question was a Dorothy Dixer (and I don’t know if it was; the media cover-up means I don’t even know who the woman is) then it should be called out for what it is.

    It is corruption.

    The press conference concept has been corrupted from a statement + media questions to statement + statement the politician was too gutless to make but gets a stooge to ask as a DD + media questions. The idea of independent scrutiny by the media is shown to be a farce.

    It is misleading and deceptive conduct by the media companies

    They are knowingly publishing material that is designed to mislead and deceive their consumers that the questions at the press conferences are their own independent workings, rather than planted by the interviewee

    To stretch the analogy, it is a bit like dummy bidding at house auctions. “Everyone” did it. There was no “victim”. But it was a corruption of the concept of an open auction. It was misleading and deceptive. And it is now no longer lawful. Or a bit like stockbroker research reports – nowadays, the author must personally vouch for the personal responsibility for its production and the employer is required to implement procedures to achieve this.

    (And of course, Abbott should be called out as a deceitful, two-faced, shameless hypocrite.)

  46. And here we go, chief FW, the Herald Sun

    [Gillard on the outer in Galaxy poll]

    and

    [But while Labor’s numbers have edged up, voters just don’t seem to like Gillard.]

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