Morgan: 52-48 to Coalition face-to-face

Hold the front page: Labor shoots to election-winning opinion poll lead. Well, sort of – the poll comes from the little-reported Morgan face-to-face series, which is noted for leaning heavily to Labor when measured against both election results and other pollsters, and the lead only stands if you allocate minor party and independent preferences according to the result of the previous election. On the primary vote, Labor is at 38.5 per cent (which is half a point higher than the 2010 election result), the Coalition is on 42.5 per cent (43.6 per cent at the election) and the Greens are on 12 per cent. If you assume preferences would behave as they did at the previous election, as most pollsters do, that translates into a 51-49 lead for Labor. However, the Morgan face-to-face series continues to confound by showing minor party and independent voters splitting about 50-50 when asked which of the major parties they would preference, with the result that the Coalition leads 52-48 on the measure Morgan uses at its headline figure. The poll covers the last two weekends of Morgan’s regular surveying, from a total sample of 1921.

Morgan poops Labor’s party a little further with the unheralded publication of voting intention figures from a phone survey of what I take to have been about 600 respondents on Tuesday and Wednesday of last week (from which we’d previously seen only this – the sample quoted is 646 persons over 14, the youngest of whom would not have been included in the voting intention figures), which shows Labor doing only slightly better than the overall trend. This poll has the Coalition leading 46.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent on the primary vote, 53.5-46.5 on previous-election preferences and 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences, with the Greens on 9 per cent. The Labor primary vote is the highest they have recorded at any phone poll (Newspoll, Nielsen, Morgan or Galaxy) since the middle of March 2011, although the margin of error on this occasion is a high 4 per cent.

Going back to the middle of the last year, Labor’s respondent-allocated preference share from pollsters who publish figures for this has been 63.1 per cent from Nielsen polls, 61.8 per cent from Morgan phone polls (of which there have been five) and 49.7 per cent from Morgan face-to-face polls. At the 2010 election it was 65.7 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,746 comments on “Morgan: 52-48 to Coalition face-to-face”

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  1. Scringler,

    [ (I had resolved not to comment on anything today. Have had a bit of a ping lately, pretty much all nonsense, so thought it best to give it a rest. But your illo required a response.) ]

    If you were roaming around Poona in 1876, then There’s a good chance that you will have more than an occasional “ping” in 2012! 😉

  2. [thetodayshow tomorrow is going to be HUGE. MASSIVE. UNMISSABLE. Christening the brand new, super stylish set]
    This is the programme that asks a controversial, pointed question on the Australia Day holiday, all by itself, as the first question (eliciting an elegant, well considered, nicely structured, ad lib response from Abbott)??

  3. Defending La Grattan ?

    [seearjayChris Johnson

    @

    @davidlen2 @markjs1No need to insult @michellegrattan who is a well respected journalist when most media was reputable.

    2 minutes ago FavoriteRetweetReply]

  4. scorpio,

    Sorry, my fault. It was a reference to the Goon Show. Peter Sellers, Spike Milligan and Harry Secombe.

    Secombe’s character, if accused of a serious offence, like chucking porridge at Scots people over the ramparts, would invariably state: ” It wasn’t me. I was in Poona at the time.”

    That line has served me well over the years. Lots of strife avoided.

  5. TP

    [Politicians have never gotten a media person to ask them a dorthy dixer in the history of Australian politics until now.

    This is an outrage. ASIO, KGB, CIA, Batman need to be called in on this.

    Get the feeling you are being ridiculed for being ridiculous??]

    That is not the point, I believe. The point would be that if Mr Abbott arranged for a DD on the Tent Embassy then he would not be able to portray himself as an innocent victim of the day’s events. He shite about ‘honour’ would sink like a stone. His finger prints would be all over it. Plus he would be the first link in the chain.

  6. [Frank Calabrese @ 2304
    Posted Sunday, January 29, 2012 at 5:14 pm | Permalink

    There are 2 Sylvia Jefferys on Twitter – neither work for the today Show and one likes to take her clothes off.]

    Frank – If the second ‘Sylvia’ is worth checking out please post details. 🙂

  7. Dee

    [Can we trust anything we hear about Iran?]

    Nope. Not from any of the players. Sorting through the lies is quite difficult.

  8. Scringler
    Poonah of Orange Persons’ Fame has muddied the waters somewhat since Mr Secombe’s glory days. Plus, your date of 1876 probably raised the odd eyebrow as well.

  9. Dee

    [Can we trust anything we hear about Iran?
    After the WMD fiasco……
    With about as much trust as reports about Iraqi WMD. I look forward to $200 a barrel oil and seeing if the Pentagon war gaming of a conflict was correct. 60% chance of an Iranian victory, a couple of carrier fleets smashed and large loss of life as American bases across Iraq and the ME are hit by massive missile strikes.

  10. A case of bullying.
    I may not like some of their traditions/parts of their culture but who could blame them for feeling like this?
    [Iran has several times indicated that has been its position, but it has also alleged bias in the IAEA and kept the UN agency at arm’s length.

    Likewise, Iran has signalled willingness to resume talks with world powers Britain, China, France, Russia, the United States, and Germany that collapsed a year ago.

    But thus far it has not replied to a letter sent three months ago by EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton offering a return to the talks, with emphasis on discussing Iran’s nuclear activities.

    That reply would be forthcoming “soon”, Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said, according to the official news agency IRNA on Sunday.]
    http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jcwHS1HNhNVFt5GVezaK9dEAgw3A?docId=CNG.be3acfc3ac0b58c784ffb9161f073214.11

  11. Boerwar
    [Not from any of the players. Sorting through the lies is quite difficult.]
    Between Abbott and the Australian media, there is probably a specialist expertise developed here for that particular task…a see a money making opportunity for FBFukushima Inc (Gulf branch)
    😀

  12. Dee

    I think you can take it for granted that one of the strategies of Iran is to keep everyone talking while it is constructing nuclear weapons.

  13. Boerwar

    [Dee

    I think you can take it for granted that one of the strategies of Iran is to keep everyone talking while it is constructing nuclear weapons.]
    How about the world impose a nuclear weapons free Middle East ? Nobody could object to that 😉

  14. Boerwar – The construction part is a big challenge. A decade to get from where they are to make a bomb, then make it small enough and then have something to launch it on is a minimal time frame.

    I’d expect that the are aiming to make themselves ‘attack proof’ and that’s all.

    The septics are ‘mad’ as always and if they persist we’ll, and the Russians and Chinese will find out everything we always wanted to know about surface launched anti-ship missiles. I wouldn’t want to be on a USN ship in the actual Gulf area.

    Not good.

  15. [ That is not the point, I believe. The point would be that if Mr Abbott arranged for a DD on the Tent Embassy then he would not be able to portray himself as an innocent victim of the day’s events. He shite about ‘honour’ would sink like a stone. His finger prints would be all over it. Plus he would be the first link in the chain. ]

    Absolutely crucial that we get that name. Abbott & the Fibs get cut off at the knees.

    Nowhere to go, end of story!

  16. [How about the world impose a nuclear weapons free Middle East ? Nobody could object to that]
    The world. 😛
    Do as I do, not as I say!

  17. poroti
    That would only be fair. Then Iran would not have to worry about an existential threat to its existence from every stary nuclear-armed nation in the area.

  18. Scorps @ 2671 – The Press play their part in these ‘pressers’ so they get to ask at least some questions. They won’t give up easily.

  19. [OK, so Scringler is the Father of the Bludger House.]

    Corporal Boerwar,

    Impertinence is not highly regarded around here; we drink Melbourne Bitter when in Victoria, if in Tassie, Boags. In Adelaide, Cascade. In NSW, Rech.

    I’ll have you know my Martini Henry is polished, ready for action. (Smile jobbie)

  20. This stuff up by the ALP and free kick to the Libs was yet another example of staffers who lacked sufficient experience in how Aussie politics works in the real world, outside their world.
    Regular Aussies dislike intensely being manilupated by young ‘smarse staffers’ who think they are smarter than the average Joe.
    This would not have happened if there was an experienced veteran advisor overseeing policy and tactics, such as Senator Faukner.
    The Libs were successful under Howard because of the astute advice of Grame Morris, which was received by Howard, and usually adopted.
    As a result the P M is now finished, and party decision makers know it.
    It does not matter if she knew about what messeges were sent, or not. She is ultimately responsible for what her staff say and do.
    Her lack of control of her staff has come back to bite her in a big way.
    I wonder who there is in the party who could exercise some control over the PMs staff????? hhhhhmmmmmmmmmm

    Maybe it is time for a control freak to take control of the PMs staff?
    So party heavy weights will be watching K Rudds performance and popularity in the coming Queensland elections, and if he manages to perform well and save some of the furniture from the predicted disaster for Labor, then its very very likely he will be back in the Lodge as soon as they think the timing is right.

    Time for Bludgers here to face reality, and acknowledge that Gillards race is nearly over

  21. CTar1

    The anti-ship missiles would need to be very well-bunkered, highly mobile, and land-based or they will not get off the ground. I have no idea about the Silkworms but imagine that the Chinese would be keen to see how they fare against the serried defences of the US Navy. A free test. A bit like the french stuff the Argentinians tested on the Brits.

    Those two Phantoms the Iranians drag out for demonstrations of military fearsomeness are a real joke. As for the three conventional subs – 100% casualty rate are virtually a dead certainty. If the crews are really lucky they will be on shore leave when the balloon goes up.

  22. ockerguy

    [Regular Aussies dislike intensely being manilupated by young ‘smarse staffers’ who think they are smarter than the average Joe.]

    Give me a break. I suppose they prefer being dicked by Brian and Peta?

  23. Newscorpse is starting to unravel – now we have management dobbing in staff to the police; and the poor exploited employees of Murdoch are going to jail for the culture they had to work in. News executives call it “draining the swamp”.

    and now they are starting to sing. this is from the famous rceipient of the “for Neville” email, which detailed meetings with James Murdoch prior to big payouts – meetings which James couldn’t recall,

    http://nthurlbeck.blogspot.com/2012/01/draining-swamp-et-tu-brute.html

  24. CTar1
    [The septics are ‘mad’ as always and if they persist we’ll, and the Russians and Chinese will find out everything we always wanted to know about surface launched anti-ship missiles]
    From film of an Iranian war exercise a couple of years back they have been given/bought the technology behind the Russian Shkval torpedo. More an underwater rocket than torpedo it does about 400kmh. It also appears they have the SS-N-22 “Sunburn” missile. A russian missile designed to take out carrier fleets. It was one of the reasons the Kursk became of such interest.It was packed with them.

    [Shkval]
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gBtgqK9gwdA
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VA-111_Shkval
    [The Sunburn – Iran’s Awesome
    Nuclear Anti-Ship Missile]
    http://www.rense.com/general59/theSunburniransawesome.htm

  25. [Maybe it is time for a control freak to take control of the PMs staff?]

    Except that the control freak to whom you presumably refer by all accounts wrote the book on stuffing one’s office with over-caffeinated twenty-somethings and granting them responsibility far beyond the reach of their experience in the “real world”.

  26. Call me a dreamer, well maybe I am, but I would like to see the supposedly impartial media disclose a few facts about themselves. What I would like to see is full disclosure of any reporter’s political views or affiliations- membership of political party, close ties to any Mp or minister, senator, had worked for an Mp, senator, or political party. Also how about salary disclosure? Fat cats or battlers?
    Until we know where they are situated politically, how can they pretend that they themselves are unbiased?

  27. The War of the Iranian Sanctions will start with thousands of simultaneous missile strikes that will most likely destroy most but not all of Iran’s launch capacity on day 1. The strategic question is whether Iran will maintain sufficient capacity to sink/damage the big tankers.

    There may be thousands of missiles going both ways, but this is less likely. I do ssume that the US has ‘fixed’ its surprising inability to find Scuds.

  28. sprocket @ 2681 – Neville still doesn’t get it, does he. No concept of what he did was wRONg at all …

    He’ll ‘wear’ some of this in a serious way.

  29. Boerwar

    [CTar1

    The anti-ship missiles would need to be very well-bunkered, highly mobile, and land-based or they will not get off the ground]
    They are.The mountainous terrain along Hormuz is ideal for deep bunkering. Forget the Silkworm watch the Sunburn . Launched from air, sea and land, up to mach 3 as low as 5 meters and pulling 10g manœuvres on the way in.Good luck stopping them.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJgVaYmiggE

  30. BoerWar / poroti – The Gulf is small with all ranges less than 50 miles across. Iran has lots of coast. Sunburn try-out – Russians and Chinese would be keen on that. But because of the short distances there are lots of small missiles, some old, that could be very mobile for ground launch against ships. They would be very hard to counter over short distances.

    Agree with BoerWar that the US would wipe out their AF and surface ships quickly.

    But any serious threat to attack oil shipping would have the insurance companies say ‘no’ to ships transiting no matter what the US said … world economic havoc.

  31. CTar1

    On a somewhat related issue someone on the telly was saying that Mr Schettino’s ship cost half a billion to put together. Plus the legal industry has its claws well in.

    Some insurers are going to get a hiding.

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