However dubious the exercise might be, let it be noted that Roy Morgan has aggregated its polling from the supposed bellwether electorate of Eden-Monaro since Kevin Rudd became Labor leader last December, producing a result of 62-38 in Labor’s favour. As observed in the previous post, Liberal internal polling from this electorate was used by the Prime Minister to calm the party room’s nerves during its anti-climactic meeting on Tuesday morning.
Asanque the fact is Rudd is saying he’ll have a phased withdrawal of 550 Australian troops which risks putting them in more danger by downsizing their strength either the troops are in or they are out you cant have a phased withdrawal of so few soldiers
I merely point out that Rudd by placating to the demands of the US will if he wins have a phased withdrawal of our troops putting them in extreme danger…Rudd just doesnt have the balls to say ‘troops out by Christmas’…
Morgan comments:
““The Coalition vote went up slightly despite public debate over leadership in-fighting in the Liberal Party.”
And yet the poll was taken last Saturday and Sunday. Did I miss a memo, or did not the leadership story break out on Monday morning?
I thought it was decided debates on foreign policy were no longer permitted on this blog.
I can get Maxine in Bennelong at 1.95. Is the general consensus that she has a better than 50/50 chance of winning? Howard’s margin is only a couple of percent now and I’m sure it won’t go down well that he’s going to step down half way through.
Then again, maybe he’ll commit to remaining as member for Bennelong for the whole term if he feels he may lose his seat because of it…?
It was a face-to-face Morgan with 955 respondents. The error margin is just over 3%. None of the party voting figures represent any change of statistical significance. But it is worth noting the last ten ‘who will win?’ figures have gone 55, 50, 50, 52, 58, 60, 55, 60.5, 66 for Labor. That’s a real trend, allowing for 3% error.
PORTLAND UPDATE ON BENNELONG:
Rodent: 1.80
Maxine: 1.85
All the money is for Maxine McKew since Howard’s strange retirement announcement
Hornsby and parts north especially used to be a battlers belt (the central coast coming south of the river) that voted Labor. Peter Baldwin and John Faulkner came from the area.
Glen: the Liberals ain’t going to win Holt and Isaacs: dream on!
Glen said …Rudd just doesnt have the balls to say ‘troops out by Christmas’…
Wishful thinking Glen. Latham did just that and look where it ended..in tears. At least Howard had the guts to say: Families never had it so good. Look at my record. Look at moi. If I go, then you get that loser cossie. But what about your vision for the future??? Where will it all end, Glen? In tears? It certainly looks like it…unless you can provide a coherent analysis of the polls which comes to a different conclusion.
I said to the disenfranchised Gippslanderix that 59+ would be a great result, 56-58 a good result. MOE(not the town, the statistic) is very important. I cannot see that the “real”vote can be much below 57.
The election will be either Oct 27 or Dec 8 (ie earliest or latest), labour 90+ seats
Hornsby swung very heavily to the Liberals in the state election, probably because Judy Hopwood the local MP is a hardworker and very visible in the local media.
My state seat of Epping: barely no swing at all against Labor(0.5%), the best result by far on the North Shore of Sydney for Morris Iemma.
So you can’t trust the ALP polling because it is consistent with all of the public polling?
[giggles]
296
Asanque Says:
September 14th, 2007 at 1:41 pm
Glen: if the US can afford to withdraw troops in the number of 30000.
Australia can afford to withdraw ALL our troops.
The US can make up the numbers, as its their illegal war.
Here here :):):) ……. Heard a speech by Obama a few nights ago on the news. He will take ALL the troops out period end of sentence. I was going to vote for Hillary up to that point, but now he has my vote.
Gotta love Costello, “you see a growing arrogance about Mr Rudd and the Labor Party and they are taking the Australian people for granted” … eeer an you and liberal party haven’t taken the electorate for granted for the past 10 years.
What a joke.
Telstra and Labor are in bed together – Coonan !!!
RGee #314 spot on.
It is especially hard to take the Australian people for granted from Opposition. Is Costello the new Opposition Leader now or is he just getting ready for it?
306
Howard Hater Says:
September 14th, 2007 at 1:53 pm
PORTLAND UPDATE ON BENNELONG:
Rodent: 1.80
Maxine: 1.85
All the money is for Maxine McKew since Howard’s strange retirement announcement
I saw a headline on Crikey about 45 minutes ago that said Maxine was ahead for the first time. However, it was subscriber only and thus didn’t include the numbers. If someone here is a Crikey subscriber, can you post the gist of the story, including numbers? Thanks 🙂
ruawake: Is that because Telstra is taking Coonan to court for overstepping her ministerial responsibilities? Plus the fact that Telstra supports Labor’s ‘high speed broadband’ policy. Perhaps David Kirk, CEO of Fairfax, is in bed with Labor too how he wants nationwide highspeed broadband and not just Syd and Melb?
Oh, and IIRC, Telstra isn’t government owned anymore, they can do whatever they like. Serves the government right for selling it off.
“Heard a speech by Obama a few nights ago on the news. He will take ALL the troops out period end of sentence. I was going to vote for Hillary up to that point, but now he has my vote”
Julie, the key points to remember are Oil, then OIL, and finally Oil.
Like it or lump it, the US cannot leave chaos (even if it is of its own making). This is not like Vietnam, where there was an incoming Govt however unpalatable.
The US has to work towards leaving a viable govt, and in the meantime has to safeguard its oil supply.
Isn’t this a perfect example of what the world will be like in 20 years time if we don’t work Bloody hard for alternative energy sources. Otherwise we’re at the mercy of some madman who holds a stick of dynamite at the nearest Oil Well, or Tanker, or Refinery.
3 of last 4 Morgan f2f’s have Labor primary at 49% or more. Sounds pretty good to me.
Isn’t this a perfect example of what the world will be like in 20 years time if we don’t work Bloody hard for alternative energy sources.
Did anyone else hear Ian Lowe on Late Night Live last night?
Gippslander,
We have all had oil long before 9/11. No one seriously suggested in their wildest dreams invading Iraq to safeguard oil supply before that point. Terrorism has been around before 9/11 too. You can not pin Iraq on that cause either in spite of what Bush and Howard say. Terrorism always is and will be a possibility out there. It can’t be eliminated. Bush and Howard saying we will win the war on terrorism are using faulty logic.
If anything at all, the Iraq war happened soley because of Bush’s wanting revenge for his fathers failure in the early 1990’s. This is all about getting revenge for daddy.
I think having been born in Detroit, Michigan, USA in 1961 and living there in various locations until December 2004 gives me a better take than most on this blog about US politics. Those of you who haven’t lived and breathed US politics shouldn’t be pointing out to those of us who have what the Iraq war is about.
That having been said and since this blog is all about the Aussie election, getting back onto topic – Rudd has said he will bring troops home, albeit gradually. Personally, I would prefer the Latham point of action as is what Obama will do. But whether they come home all at once or gradually, coming HOME is the important thing :):). Howard doesn’t even have a plan in place for it at all, one more thing he doesn’t have a policy for.
Firstly, talk to Adam as much as you can, it gives him some sort of link to the real world.
Secondly, ignore the rubbish from Adam, such as me being a young liberal. I am not.
Thirdly, who cares about NSW? Well about a third of the MHRs come from NSW, so they count for something. Anyone who was around during the time of Keating could tell you about the infamous NSW Right of the ALP, to which Keating belonged.
Thankyou for the sage advice Chinda, but you can look up the criminal and victim histories of all the people I have mentioned.
As for why the NSW Government was not defeated earlier this year, some have said, including John Howard, that New South Welshmen like having opposite parties State and Federal, to have some sort of balance against the excesses of either party.
In fact, there have been letters to the editor in the Sydney Morning Herald, such as this one, September 11 2007:
Bring on a federal Labor government. Then we can safely give the NSW Labor gangsters the electoral hiding they have deserved for so long.
Jeffrey Mellefont Bondi Beach
Julie at 317,
Crikey said (on Wednesday 12th):
=== Quote ===
John Howard is now the underdog not only to remain Prime Minister at the federal election but in his own seat of Bennelong as well. The Crikey Election Indicator for Bennelong now puts the probability of Maxine McKew winning Bennelong at 50.4%.
It was only two months ago that Ms McKew was the clear outsider being given only a 25% chance of victory.
=== ===
The numbers were Maxine: 50.4%, John: 48.8%, Others: 0.8%.
Note: The Crikey Election Indicators are based on the markets at Betfair.com.
Julie @ 317
The Crikey Bennelong Election Indicator
26 Feb 18 Jun 16 Jul 13 Aug 12 Sep
Maxine McKew 34.7% 25.1% 25.0% 36.8% 50.4%
John Howard 60.8% 73.8% 74.4% 62.4% 48.8%
Other candidate 4.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8%
Sorry if the formatting is a bit wonky
Thanks Flaneur and RGee :):) … With the vast resources of the net, I personally can’t justify paying for news ;-). Although about 10 days out from the election, I will sign on for their free 3 week trial I think 😉
Some have said this, true.
But they’re wrong.
And if you’re agreeing with them, you’re wrong too.
The voters of New South Wales (half of whom, of course, are women and not men) sometimes vote for different parties at State and Federal level, and sometimes vote for the same party at State and Federal levels. Just like the voters of every other State. But don’t take my word for it. Tabulate the data and see for yourself (instead of just believing what ‘some have said’).
As for tabulating the data, which would go back to before 1902, when women in NSW were given the vote, that is a project for someone with the time and data available to them. Perhaps it has already been done. It would certainly be interesting.
As for my mention of New South Welshmen, rather than the political correctness of gender which died last century, it is a more entertaining thing to say “I didn’t know you were a Welshman!”
Humph. To Rupert’s long list of crimes against humanity by NSW politicians, we can add to the Liberal side of the ledger: Rupert, plagiarist.
NSW voters didn’t vote for Debnam for the same reason Australian voters didn’t vote for Latham – he scared the bejesus out of them. NSW was in the mood to punish Iemma and his bunch of cronies (barring perhaps John Watkins) but the Big Budgie Smuggler was too scary for words. And that was that.
What on earth are you on about 330 Marktwain?
You shouldn’t drink and drive on the internet.
Libs yet to launch candidates in Cunningham, Sydney and Graydnier? Could it be they want to come third so as to rattle Labor with a (very)surprising Greens victory?
Also Obama is a neo-con, just check his foreign policies on non-Iraq foreign policy. Sad thing is, decent Democrats are unelectable. If I was an American I’d ‘through away my vote’ by giving it to Nader.