Morgan: 62-38 in Eden-Monaro

However dubious the exercise might be, let it be noted that Roy Morgan has aggregated its polling from the supposed bellwether electorate of Eden-Monaro since Kevin Rudd became Labor leader last December, producing a result of 62-38 in Labor’s favour. As observed in the previous post, Liberal internal polling from this electorate was used by the Prime Minister to calm the party room’s nerves during its anti-climactic meeting on Tuesday morning.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

333 comments on “Morgan: 62-38 in Eden-Monaro”

Comments Page 1 of 7
1 2 7
  1. If the current four poll average for the nation hovers around the current mark – and why wouldn’t it – the swing doesn’t stop at boundaries on a map. It sweeps through towns and cities like a chill wind. A Morgan poll here or there in some seat or other is irrelevant – that seat goes.
    Every day that passes is lost for the Government. The focus is on them – not us. As a nation, we’re over it.
    I still think he’ll call it Sunday – and then we can get on with our lives.

  2. Did anyone notice that at the end of QT the Speaker bade a fond farewell to one of the attendants who is retiring at the end of the Parliament? Why today and not next Thursday, hmmm? What does the Speaker know? (The answer usually is “not much”, but perhaps someone spelled it out for him in words of one syllable.)

  3. Adam, doesn’t the rodent need the rest of this week and next to get through his legislation?
    Eden Monaro: I know for a fact Labor has 2 extra votes in that seat, my uncle and aunt(who’ve never voted Labor before, but proudly inform me they are sick of Howard & like Rudd).

  4. With the current state of the polls and the betting markets, I can’t see how the Coalition will make a comeback, short of a terrorist attack on our soil. However, I will never write off Howard. Who knows what cunning strategy he has to romp it in again. I hope that this is not the case, but he is a very shrewd politician.

  5. That was my understanding yes. But if Howard thinks he might get rolled next week after Newspoll, who knows what he might do? I don’t think he can abandon the horse flu bill, but I don’t know where it’s got to. (Of course, a bill can be put through both houses in an hour if everyone co-operates.)

  6. William, I hope you’ll forgive me for reposting my comment from deep in the previous thread about the Morgan figures for Eden-Monaro. People need to think critically about the basis of the poll figures which are being bandied around.

    … I’ve been having a close look at the basis for the Morgan figures. It’s obviously made up by amalgamating the results of their regular weekly polling figures. The figures are divided into ‘pre-Rudd’ and ‘post-Rudd’. Morgan have done 25 face-to-face polls post-Rudd. The last one had 915 respondents. They’ve also done 8 telephone polls since around May, and the last one had 633 interviews. Multiply each of those pairs of figures and you get the ballpark sample size nationally since December last. Then divide by 150 federal electorates and you get around 187 interviews for Eden-Monaro (It could be slightly more – they may not poll in NT and Tas for every poll). The confidence interval for an electorate of 92,500 voters, and a 62% to 38% 2PP split, is 6.95% at 95% confidence level.

    This means you can be 95% confident that, if you’d asked every Eden-Monaro voter their voting intention between last December and now, you’d get a result in the range of 55 to 69% for Labor.

    The biggest problem with this Morgan analysis is the time factor: it doesn’t tell us what the voters are thinking now. Given however that the polls at the national level have not really improved for the Govt in that time, and there have been no unique local events in the electorate, it is reasonable to assume that an Eden-Monaro poll now would probably not be too much different.

    I don’t think any of us know the actual words the PM used in his Party Room, but I’d be willing to bet he didn’t say Crosby-Textor’s polling shows Gary Nairn is ahead, but just that he could win. The same as the Govt could win. LOL!!!!!

  7. Well, Sportingbet have the ALP odds on to win 15 seats on their individual electorate betting including Eden-Monaro.

    That’s alll Rudd needs but that doesn’t include Wentworth, Bennelong, LaTrobe, Herbert, Bowman, Boothby and Sturt, which have the ALP gaining fast.

  8. Poor Howard. He’s doomed. If this were the 14th century, he’d be known by now as King John The Shrewd.

    The bar has been set impossibly high for someone so short in the leg: unless he can come up with a miracle, all is lost. And if he did come up with miracle, people will just say, “Oh, it’s just one of Howard’s rabbits,” and dismiss it instantly.

  9. Question: How quickly can a bill be put through Parliament if everyone co-operates?

    This quickly:

    Speaker: Clerk
    Clerk: First reading. A bill for an act to make John Howard PM for Life.
    Speaker: Minister.
    Minister: Mr Speaker, I move the bill be read a second time, and I seek leave to incorporate my second reading speech in Hansard.
    Speaker: Is leave granted? Leave is granted. Is the motion seconded? The Hon Mem for Woop Woop.
    Mr Drone: I second the motion and reserve my right to speak.
    Speaker: The Leader of the Opposition.
    The Leader: I support the bill.
    Speaker: Minister.
    Minister: I move the motion be put.
    Mr Drone: I second the motion.
    Speaker: The motion is that the motion be put. All those in favour say aye, all those against say no. I think the ayes have it. The motion now is that the bill be read a second time. All those in favour say aye, all those against say no. I think the ayes have it. Clerk.
    Clerk: Second reading. A bill for an act to make John Howard PM for Life.
    Speaker: Minister.
    Minister: Mr Speaker, I move the bill be read a third time.
    Is the motion seconded? The Hon Mem for Woop Woop.
    Mr Drone: I second the motion.
    Speaker: The motion is that the bill be read a third time. All those in favour say aye, all those against say no. I think the ayes have it. Clerk.
    Clerk: Third reading. A bill for an act to make John Howard PM for Life.
    Speaker: The bill is now passed.

    Usher takes bill to Senate, where the above is repeated, although I think the Senate has to have a committee phase, which might add a minute or two if no-one says anything.
    Usher takes bill back to House, where Speaker announces Senate has approved bill.
    Speaker and PM take bill to Governor-General, who is waiting outside. Governor-General signs bill, giving royal assent. PM counter-signs. Bill is law. (Normally a bill contains a provision that it will become law on a certain date when it is gazetted, but this is not compulsory. If no other date is set, the bill becomes law on the royal assent.)

    Estimated time: half an hour (most taken up by Usher crossing the building twice)

  10. Nice observation, Canberra Boy #7. Huge moe.
    I posted this elsewhere a while ago…

    Timing of this is interesting. Looks like Gary Morgan is being a little provocative at JHs expense.

    Very interesting detail here. The 2PP for Eden-Monaro at 2004 election was almost exactly the same as the NSW 2PP result and not far off the national 2PP. True to its reputation as being the bell-wether seat.

    Now comes the fun – what if the 62/38 was repeated at the coming election and E-M remains the bell-wether seat???

  11. Ready to roll (not)

    Seats with no Coalition candidate: Banks, Barton, Batman, Blaxland, Charlton, Cunningham, Fowler, Grayndler, Griffith (!), Lowe, Newcastle, Prospect, Rankin (Labor margin 2%), Reid, Scullin, Shortland, Watson, Werriwa.

    Seats with no Labor candidate: Warringah

  12. Adam Says:
    September 13th, 2007 at 4:47 pm
    Ready to roll (not)

    Seats with no Coalition candidate: Banks, Barton, Batman, Blaxland, Charlton, Cunningham, Fowler, Grayndler, Griffith (!), Lowe, Newcastle, Prospect, Rankin (Labor margin 2%), Reid, Scullin, Shortland, Watson, Werriwa.

    Interesting: 14 in New South Wales, 2 in Victoria, 2 in Queensland (and none anywhere else). It’s not just because of having a lot of safe Labor seats: Victoria has about the same number as New South Wales. I wonder how much impact on the Senate vote there would be if 14 out of 49 New South Wales seats had no Liberal Representatives candidate (this being the usual justification given for running candidates in hopeless seats)?

  13. Re #13 – Bryce, I think it is more than likely that, if Eden-Monaro 2PP closely follows the NSW 2PP, then we are quite likely to see a result of anything up to a 12% swing. The esteemed Possum Comitatus pointed out several months ago how serious the swings were when he analysed the Newspoll breakdown of their April to June polling. That showed a !2.2% swing in NSW, and not confined to marginals and Labor seats. Read his Pollycide parts 1, 2 & 3 and then contemplate a small bet at good odds on some ‘safe’ Liberal seats in NSW, Vic, Qld & SA, before the odds shorten in the next couple of weeks!

  14. Furthermore the NSW Liberals’ website makes absolutely no mention of even the candidates they have, including the mysterious Mr Robinson who is allegedly defending a Liberal-held seat. Are they trying to lose or what?

  15. The massive number of NSW seats with no Liberal candidate just goes to show what terrible sort of shape the NSW Libs are in. 14 seats! How much time and effort did they waste on the Cook debacle? Realistically, how can they be ready for such a tough election?

  16. Yes, Adam (15), I too am perplexed by the Libs lack of urgency on getting candidates, even in seats where they wouldn’t win even in a landslide TO the Libs. Could it be that they’re having trouble actually finding anyone to stand in these areas? Polling figures like those endured by the Coalition this year don’t exactly encourage party foot soldiers to put their hands up.

  17. “including the mysterious Mr Robinson who is allegedly defending a Liberal-held seat. Are they trying to lose or what?”

    I live in this electorate (Parramatta)and haven’t heard a squeak, I think there was one mention in the Parramatta Sun, all I can recall is he is a member of the ETU, and is pro Work-Choices. They mustn’t think they have a prayer in Parramatta, and with the ugly smell emanating from Mitchell, you can’t blame HQ from devoting resources to suring up other seats, which a little birdie tells me, include North-Sydney and Greenway.

  18. Andrew Leigh in the AFR today was spruiking up the betting markets and dissing the polls. Not sure why he bothered: at present they are in tandem. If anything, the betting markets are reacting to the polls. The polls speak of present voting intentions (even if not solid); the betting pool is specifically predictive but who knows who puts money into it and for what reasons.

    The tail end of the article was salutary though: the media/general discourse is obsessed with polls (or betting markets) because of a long-winded campaign where both sides are avoiding bold policy and even locking horns on policy.

  19. Speaking of filling vacancies, labor has filled the vacant position for O’Connor. His name is Dominic Rose and he looks about 20. The poor lad is about to get a political baptism of fire. While i’m on O’Connor anyone know what the National candidate Philip Gardiner’s chances are, from what I hear he’s quite a good candidate.

  20. Hey Adam

    It was the IT guy in the article who was being interviewed on ABC RN
    this morning as Rudd’s opponent.

    And did you get my previous comment about the WA Libs number three?

  21. Adam (the 11th)

    touche. mind you it’d take the high court less time to overrule such a bill.

    ‘A Bill to put Life into the Prime Minister’ would be a more complex and challenging matter.

    ps: just heard the PM responding with nauseating faux sincerity to some naff question about the death of a woman from solarium induced cancer.

    Truly, democracy is at a nadir when what really matters is how politicians respond to the mediocre fluff of social commentary – Beazley stumbling on Rove, everyone condemning Big Brother, Latham on reading to kids … It ain’t what Keating meant when he lauded the ability to hit the vaudeville switch.

  22. #1

    6-7% swing recorded in that leaked Win poll in Eden-Monaro repeated across the country would mean a Labor two party preferred vote nationally of 53-54%, matching or exceeding the level they recevied in 1983.

  23. #15

    In those seats you describe above, the Liberals or Labor are thinking they will win those seats if hell freezes over. Rankin on a margin of just 2% is quite interesting, the Coalition must be thinking they going to expect a big swing to Labor (at least 7%, probably higher) in Queensland.

  24. A tedious little ad that would even bore the viewers of Neighbours.

    More entertaining is the picture on the page of the Cruddy face, so round he should be on Southpark.

  25. Well I guess Rupert’s response is a good sign. I agree with Canberra Boy (34) (I hope that’s nothing to do with the Raiders), I think it’ll play pretty well. Remember, most people don’t follow politics like we do, and they would have found the news out of Canberra of this week both confusing and unsettling. Labor is really starting to look like the safer option.

  26. With all due respect; alpal #2, your wrong.

    WIth all swings, their are always 1 or 2 seats that don’t fall that should, and their are always 1 or 2 that DO fall that are outside the swing. It is possible that Eden-Monaro could be won by the Liberals. I do admit it seems unlikely but you never know.

  27. A Current Affair held a poll. 27,000 responses. 80% said changing to Costello would make them more likely to vote coalition. This poll wouldn’t have been hi jacked would it? Just a wild guess.

  28. I live in Eden Monaro and, while I’ll still be voting ALP, I would have preferred to vote for Kel Watt. He seemed like a pretty good bloke, who’d put in the hard yards for the ALP in this electorate. To his credit, he seemed to take it very graciously.

  29. There is a dangerous pattern in polls like that, in that given a choice between two alternative leaders, they always say they prefer the one that’s “out” over the one that’s “in.” All through the 1980s when Peacock was leader they said they prefered Howard, and when Howard was leader they said they prefered Peacock. The same happened with Beazley and whomever over the past decade. When Beazley was in, they wanted him out, and when he was out, they wanted him in. Conclusion: these “polls” are meaningless and should be ignored.

  30. That ACA phone poll sounds more suspect than an Indian bookmaker hanging around the hotel of the Aussie cricket team claiming he’s “just sightseeing”.

  31. 34
    canberra boy Says:
    September 13th, 2007 at 6:18 pm ….Hey, take a look at this ALP ad on the leadership woes. It’s devastating!

    yup,cb, and it echoes what much of the public will be thinking. they have lost it

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 1 of 7
1 2 7