Morgan: 62-38 in Eden-Monaro

However dubious the exercise might be, let it be noted that Roy Morgan has aggregated its polling from the supposed bellwether electorate of Eden-Monaro since Kevin Rudd became Labor leader last December, producing a result of 62-38 in Labor’s favour. As observed in the previous post, Liberal internal polling from this electorate was used by the Prime Minister to calm the party room’s nerves during its anti-climactic meeting on Tuesday morning.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

333 comments on “Morgan: 62-38 in Eden-Monaro”

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  3. Well we know it’s not any Liberal Party supporters hitting refresh because the polls are all useless and wrong anyhow.

  6. I actually got Morgan’s up on my mobile phone one day – then I worked out it was Thursday and was wasting my time :[

    I don’t recommend Morgans on a mobile phone.

  7. Rupert. Whatever the NSW ALP get up to, and they do and did get up to some very unsavourary things, it is chickenfeed to what the great Bob Askin got up to. He put the “organised” into NSW organised crime!

  9. It’s good to hear that Brendan Nelson is doing a bit of gladhanding with the electorate.

    In all the years, I lived in safe seats of both hues, never saw a member, or even a candidate ever!

    Now living in a marginal, that’s when you get high exposure!

  11. Re #244 – Ashley the Morgan site has been a bit slow or even totally overloaded a couple of times this morning. The headline for last weekend’s polling has been up for some time, but no supporting details. It says “L-NP & ALP Support Up On Weekend Of APEC – Greens Down Now Two-Thirds Of Electors Think ALP Will Win Election”.

  13. I live in Eden-Monaro but am yet to see Gary Nairn. The only letter I’ve received is a “Our Budget was great” letter.

  15. Adam @ 227: Yes, those Hornsbyites are bolshy by North Shore standards. I should know – I was one of them. Looking at that map, the other non-straight out blue ribbon Liberal area is where I currently am – around Chatswood, which has a decent amount of people of non-English speaking background. However, I would think a lot of the Chinese in Chatswood would be of the Liberal voting kind (unfortunately). I don’t expect much of a swing in Bradfield – this is really old money Liberal heartland and doesn’t have the number of young professionals going in and out like North Sydney does.

  16. I have been mostly in (have gotten the ‘unable to process’ message a few times though) to Morgan’s website and nothing is up yet. I seem to recall last time that it didn’t actually post until closer to 1:30 ….

  19. 261
    KT Says: I don’t expect much of a swing in Bradfield – this is really old money Liberal heartland and doesn’t have the number of young professionals going in and out like North Sydney does.

    Yes, Nelson has one of the safest Liberal seats in NSW, if not the country.

  20. canberra boy Says: [Re #244 – Ashley the Morgan site has been a bit slow or even totally overloaded a couple of times this morning. The headline for last weekend’s polling has been up for some time, but no supporting details. It says “L-NP & ALP Support Up On Weekend Of APEC – Greens Down Now Two-Thirds Of Electors Think ALP Will Win Election”.]

    Oh yes, I’ve just noticed that you can load the page where the poll is going to appear. The fact that both ALP and LNP vote is up means it’s going to be a pretty boring result methinks…

  23. [A phone poll or F2F?]

    Last week was meant to be a phone poll, but it was a face to face. So who knows what that means this one will be!

  28. In the N.S.W state election, every seat on Sydney’s North Shore swung very heavily to the Liberals, WITH one exception: the seat of Epping(Greg Smith didn’t get much of a swing at all).
    Berowra: if Labor gets Phil Ruddock’s margin below 10%, that’ll be a good result.

  30. Simon…explain how you could conduct a phased withdrawal of 550 Australian combat troops without putting their lives in more danger…the US is probably going to go from 160,000 to 130,000 they can afford and have to make a phased withdrawal but since our commitment is not as large we cannot conduct a phased surrender unless you want to put them in more danger than they already are….

    Labor’s internal polling is a load of bull butter i mean they only bring out polls that magically replicate the national polls to reinforce that the ALP is unbeatable so as to get people to jump on the bandwagon…the Libs already have a firewall strategy in place…i would hate to be a Liberal candidate for an ALP safe seat they most they’d be doing is trying to pull the Senate vote which is the only reason the Liberals have candidates in seats like Sydney, Batman, Melbourne, Wills ect.

    They need to abandon those safe ALP seats and not spend as much in safe Coalition seats so as to put everything they’ve got into defending their 20 most marginal seats and hope they can pull off a 1998 win…

  31. All I can see on Morgan’s website is the main page. Any articles are still unavailable. But I did see this:

    “In Eden Monaro, the top three electoral issues are: Improving health services and hospitals (40%); Reducing the taxes you and your family pay (20%); and Fair workplace and employment regulations (20%), according to Roy Morgan. The L-NP’s position on the three top issues has eroded substantially since Kevin Rudd became Leader of the Opposition, and the L-NP vote has decreased from 49% on a two-party preferred basis (ALP 51%) down to 38% (ALP 62%)”

  32. IF the ALP polling is correctb then it is merely reflecting the four major polls, on the other hand, howard’s liberal ‘polling’ bears no resembalnce to the four major polls

  33. [Simon…explain how you could conduct a phased withdrawal of 550 Australian combat troops without putting their lives in more danger…]

    I’m not surprised people on your side need to ask others about military strategy. There was obviously no planning for the occupation, so now you need all the help you can get.

  35. [IF the ALP polling is correctb then it is merely reflecting the four major polls, on the other hand, howard’s liberal ‘polling’ bears no resembalnce to the four major polls]

    Makes you wonder about the accuracy of the Liberal internal polling.

  36. Actually Glen the best tactic would be to abandon their ten most marginal seats (Kingston, Parramatta, Wakefield etc), where they are obviously cactus, and concentrate on the next ten, some of which they might have some hope of holding.

  37. [59:41 but ALP primary up…]

    Is that from Crikey?

    Wasn’t the last phone poll 60 / 40? You know what this means, the government is on the way back!

  38. It’ll be interesting to hear from Liberal Party insiders should they fail at this election. I’d definately watch a ‘Liberals in Power’ style documentary.

  39. Slightly off topic (election betting): I’ve got a free $100 bet to use. I don’t want to bother betting on anything that’s a “sure” bet with low odds, because I only get to keep the winnings not the $100 stake. I was thinking that Turnbull in Wentworth seems like a pretty good bet at 1.55.

    Any suggestions?

  41. Ashley bet it on the Libs to win outright. A good return and some comfort for you on election night if it comes true!

  43. Ha i knew you cant answer that question Simon…because the answer is what Rudd is proposing is for his ‘political gain’ he is going to endanger the lives of Australian servicemen to conduct a phased withdrawal to please the Americans how hypocritical of him…

    And Simon it wasnt our job to plan for the occupation it was the Neo-cons and they failed miserably…

    Adam…

    Perhaps…SA is almost a total loss…im big enough to admit that…the Libs should put alot of money into the ALP marginals too im here talking about Issacs, Holt, Ballarat, Bendigo, Cowan, Swan because just one or two seats against the flow will stop Rudd in his tracks…unless its a landslide…that is.

  44. Glen said:
    They need to abandon those safe ALP seats and not spend as much in safe Coalition seats so as to put everything they’ve got into defending their 20 most marginal seats and hope they can pull off a 1998 win…

    That sounds like cutting and running. How can you possibly support a pullback or drawdown or withdrawal? Either you fight and win or all of Oz is doomed. Apres nous le deluge! Isn’t JWH the same as that other Winston? We will fight them on the beaches, we will fight them anywhere. We will never surrender. Howard is a hero!

  46. Glen: if the US can afford to withdraw troops in the number of 30000.
    Australia can afford to withdraw ALL our troops.
    The US can make up the numbers, as its their illegal war.

  47. “Meanwhile, Morgan polling taken over the APEC sumit weekend saw the Coalition’s primary vote rise 1.5% to 36%, while support for the ALP (51%, up 2%) went above the 50% mark for the first time in more than two months.

    With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 Federal election, the twoparty preferred vote is ALP 59% (down 1%), LNP is 41% (up 1%). If the Federal election had been held last weekend the ALP would have won in a massive landslide.

    Among the minor parties support for The Greens is 6% (down 3%), Family First 2% (unchanged), Australian Democrats 1% (down 1%), One Nation 0.5% (unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 3.5% (up 0.5%). Presently, more electors think the ALP will win the next Federal election (66%, up 5.5%) than at any time during Kevin Rudd’s tenure as Labor leader, while just 24.5% (down 2%) think the LNP will win and 9.5% (down 3.5%) can’t say.
    “

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