Morgan: 62-38 in Eden-Monaro

However dubious the exercise might be, let it be noted that Roy Morgan has aggregated its polling from the supposed bellwether electorate of Eden-Monaro since Kevin Rudd became Labor leader last December, producing a result of 62-38 in Labor’s favour. As observed in the previous post, Liberal internal polling from this electorate was used by the Prime Minister to calm the party room’s nerves during its anti-climactic meeting on Tuesday morning.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

333 comments on “Morgan: 62-38 in Eden-Monaro”

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  3. Am I on crazy pills? Howard did not ask Downer to canvas the others about the leadership. Anyone can tell it was a geniune piece of plotting that took Howard by surprise.

    Think about it, they had APEC and then were to spend the week in Parliament drumming on about APEC.

    This whole thing about Howard asking Downer to canvas views is just more Liberal party room lies.

  4. I believe the reports (today’s Daily Telegraph) that the Liberal Party are concerned about their heartland NSW seats, have substance. I noticed Brendan Nelson and a team of Young Liberals were handing flyers to rail commuters this morning on Turramurra station. I remember when the Liberal Party held about 8 of the the (then) 50 House of Reps seats in NSW and the SMH political correspondent at the time, Geoff Kitney, described the Party’s position in NSW as “sclerotic”. That was immediately after the 1993 election.

    A couple of observations, if I may. Where NSW leads, the rest of the country follows. If the Liberal Party is leaking votes in its relatively safe seats in NSW, let alone in the “marginals” which ring the outer areas of the greater Sydney region, then it is time to call it for the Australian Labor Party. Mr. Kevin Rudd former diplomat, former staffer for a state ALP government and member for Griffith since 1998 and who is (apparently) a safe pair of hands, will be Australia’s twenty-sixth prime minister. Yet in the aftermath of a bad election result for the Liberals, I think it is fair to say that any reports of the demise of the Liberal Party as we know it, will be premature and (frankly) an exercise in self-indulgence by less informed political enemies. As in life generally, nothing is ever as “good” or “bad” as it may appear at a particular time. NSW represents about a third of the Australian electorate, it has the largest number of floating voters and it does swing back even if (for the moment) the swing is in the wrong direction from the Liberals’ standpoint.

  5. Rofl.

    Even Bolt thinks Shanahan is biased.

    [‘The Australian’s Dennis Shanahan, the journalist who most closely reflects Howard’s thinking, has sold this as a coup that puts Howard’s heir, Peter Costello, “at the heart of the Liberal team and at the forefront of the election campaign on the economy”. ‘]

    From link above

  6. If I was asked “ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY… IS DOING HIS JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? ”

    I would in John Howard’s case say yes. I am very satisfied with the way he is leading his party to defeat 😉

  7. re North Sydney

    Bailey is very cluey bloke and would not have left the ABC if he he felt he didn’t have something to offer and a good chance to win. He is not the sort of person to stand for a seat as a so called star candidate.

  8. Perhaps Bailey at North Sydney thinks that as a “NSW Labor mate” he can get something out of running, from his gangster friends. ABC board perhaps?

  9. Rupert I’m presuming you wouldn’t object to that… unless you were objecting to Albrechtsen’s appointment to the board.

  10. “I noticed Brendan Nelson and a team of Young Liberals were handing flyers to rail commuters this morning on Turramurra station.”

    Oh excellent, it would be nice for Mr Nelson to start paying attention to us for once. I look forward to seeing him at my local railway station (though I wish I lived in the more marginal North Sydney – only one suburb away!)

  11. I agree with others here who have said that Labor needs to be careful not to go too far in trying to exploit the government’s leadership woes. Right now, Rudd and Labor should be making extra efforts to present themselves as a government-in-waiting, not as an opposition, and therefore refocus on policy. A big policy announcement right now would be good timing, in my opinion.

    In other words, they need to create a clear contrast between the rabble and disarray of our present government and the united, disciplined alternative government that also has its eye on the future and the nation’s best interests. This is the time for Rudd to look very prime ministerial.

  12. Having seen the way the despotic and corrupt NSW Labor Party operates, it would make the Howard Government look like a Sunday school picnic.

  13. Still no sign of Petro in Kooyong. I think he is thinking it’s a shoe in, that’s why he hasn’t raised much money for his own electorate campaign. I’m doing my part for Kooyong, I’ve contacted Ken Harvey and offered my support in letterboxing in doing HTV

  14. This article in the Oz is a bit fluffy but points to very strong opposition to the Tamar valley pulp mill in Turnbull’s electorate. It seems likely that if he were to approve it he would be out on his ear.

    Will his personal desire to avoid being a one-termer outweigh his loyalty to a manipulative and unpopular prime minister and his business cronies who want to see the mill built and retain their ‘positive’ image amongst certain elements in Tasmania?

  15. Rupert:
    Let’s see.
    Corruption: Santoro – front bench minister
    Despot: 1. A ruler with absolute power
    Howard just overruled his ministry and imposed Workchoices without consultation.

  16. Oh, and, will Turnbull use the issue as a decisive point of differentiation between the “new” generation of Liberals (i.e. him) and the “old” guard (i.e. Howard/whoever)?

    Could be great PR – if he came down strongly against the mill pre-election he might cling to his seat whilst most of the rest of the party gets blown away, then be able to claim that he took a principled stand for the good of the country/environment and against the nepotistic and corrupt Tasmania government/Labor Party, and use that as a platform for an eventual tilt at the leadership and rescuing the Libs from the wilderness they are likely to find themselves in shortly.

    I would do it if I were him. What can Howard do to him at this stage? JWH has already demonstrated how high a priority the “good of the Party” really is.

  18. You really haven’t seen anything, until you have seen the NSW ALP prisons minister Rex Jackson sent to gaol for accepting bribes for early releases.

    The Left-wing ALP members cop the worst of it, from the ALP NSW Right. If you think the humiliation of Kelly Hoare in Charlton was bad, there are a thousand stories about the NSW using criminals for beatings (Peter Baldwin), assassination of an MP (John Newman), and underworld activities (too many to mention).

  19. The Libs have shot themselves in the foot in rejecting the Labor internal polling because such polls are unreliable. How can they then justify their stance that their own poll for EM shows they will win?

  20. Rupert: Yet despite this rumour and innuendo, the ALP still destroyed the NSW Libs in the last state election. And with the advent of the religious right in the Libs including Alex Hawke, one can only hope that the NSW Libs continue to self-destruct.

  21. Does anyone think that Costello (if the coalition win) will be handed the leadership? Looking back over the 7.30 report interview with Howard, he said that it would be up to the party to decide who they want as leader. With Costello in one faction and Downer, Abbott, Ruddock, Hockey and Bishop in another faction, whose to say that they won’t want one of them to have the leadership.
    Is Costello a sure bet for future leadership? With his polling numbers, it’s not a sure bet. Downer and Abbott may decide to put their hands up.
    If the Coalition win, who do you think will be the leader of the Liberals??

    Talk about a messy way to run a campaign…..if you vote for me, you won’t get me, you might get the man beside me, but that will be up to the cabinet to decide and they might choose someone different. So you may not know who is to be PM until after I retire????

  24. Rupert
    No rumours or innuendo used, as the real facts about the NSW ALP are worse than anything you could make up.
    Read about the sinking of the Titanic and learn how to go down with dignity. Bitterness is most unbecoming.

  25. [ the real facts about the NSW ALP ]

    Who cares?

    1/ Most Australians don’t live in NSW so what NSW Labor does is irrelevant

    2/ If NSW voters didn’t care enough to punish Labor at the last election why should anyone believe it would make any difference in this Federal election.

  26. # 221
    Rupert Says: No rumours or innuendo used, as the real facts about the NSW ALP are worse than anything you could make up.

    What… the NSW ALP demonize refugees in order prey upon ignorance and bigotry in the electorate?

  27. No political party is entirely free of the taint of corruption and mismanagement, but Australian voters are a forgiving bunch, and are willing to overlook political history in favour of current internal party stability, coupled with a clear vision for the future. Personally I hope the Libs pick up on Rupert’s spin, and really hammer hard on Labor’s record last (Federal) time around. That kind of backward-looking approach will only reinforce the Libs as yesterday’s “team” and turn off more and more electors.

  29. Meanwhile, Mr Howard has dismissed Labor Party polling which shows his government could lose up to 10 seats in his home state of NSW alone.

    Labor research leaked to The Daily Telegraph shows swings of between eight and 12 per cent in up to 10 seats in the first sign of a shift in the Howard battler seats since 1998.

    Liberal Party officials have told the newspaper that they have abandoned plans to target Labor-held seats in a bid to save sitting members.

    But Mr Howard said the polls did not seem accurate.

    “I can tell you that’s not what our polling indicates,” Mr Howard told Southern Cross Broadcasting in Melbourne.

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/meltdown-spectacular-carr/2007/09/14/1189276940159.html

  31. Everyone maybe waiting for the Morgan which is a bit pointless since we know it is a firm 56-57 and we wont know if any other result is noise or trend or abberation – but fun anyway.

  34. Ok, Morgan out today, Newspoll on Tuesday. What are the poll release dates for the next week to 10 days or so after Tuesday? Thanks 🙂 [need to update my “little list” here next to the computer]

  35. Re Simon Howson @ 225

    John Howard needs to wait to be briefed by the US on whether we can withdraw our troops. We all know who sets our foreign policy.

    I remember advice given to the Australian participant at a mock UN convention was to just wait for the US to speak and then agree with them.

  36. In an article at news; http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/its-not-just-about-me-howard/2007/09/14/1189276949284.html
    Howard makes the statement “And if anybody thinks Wayne Swan would be better as a treasurer than Peter Costello”.

    What seems strange to me about this is if Costello is to be PM then why make the comparison to Swan. Given Howard has created this ridiculous team sham and is now attempting to portray himself as a man of vision shouldn’t the media be asking the obvious of who will be treasurer?

  37. CTEP: I remember the US participant at a mock Security council meeting would veto anything against their own interests regardless of the otherwise prevailing unanimous view.

  39. No sign of Phillip Ruddock in Berowra. I’ve never been doorknocked by him. The most I hear from Phil is his monthly “Ruddock Report” shoved into my letterbox – Howard Govt propoganda. Yes, it goes in the recycling bin LOL I doubt there will be any amazing anti-Liberal swings in Thornleigh, Pennant Hills and Normanhurst, but you never know.

  40. The conservatives can’t take the high moral ground against corruption. Sir Joh was the master of corruption, even down to his trial by jury which had a Young National (pretty high up if I remember).

  42. Adam (227) – I would happily debate Rupert, if he ever moved beyond name-calling and non-sequiteurs. As it is, I’m not exactly sure how I could debate him….

  44. ”

    What a freakin wacko P.M. we have. Howard STILL can’t say when Australian troops will be withdrawn from Iraq, even though the AMERICANS are starting to withdraw! Are Australians going to be there after the U.S. leaves? Our P.M. is officially in fantasy land.”

    The “surge winddown” of 30k or so is hardly a withdrawal, unfortunately. This simply returns the US commitment to January 2007 levels.

    I feel I should also say this; as an American, I apologize for Bush and everything he’s done. I did what I could; I voted Kerry, but to no avail.

  47. So has Howard got his car out front, running ready for the poll and GG waiting out the front of his residence. Probably Turnbull, Hockey and Downer are hiding in the bushes ready to jump the PM before he gets to his car.

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