The weekly Roy Morgan series continues to record a narrowing in what has always seemed an implausibly large Labor lead, the latest headline two-party result being 54.5-45.5, slightly in from 55-45 last time. Both major parties are unchanged on the primary vote, the Coalition at 35.5% and Labor at 35%, with the Greens down two points from a spike last week to 12%, One Nation steady at 4.5% and the United Australia Party steady at 1.5%. Applying 2019 preference flows to these factors, as opposed to Morgan’s respondent-allocated flows, produces a result in Labor’s favour of around 53-47.
The state breakdowns have Labor leading 55-45 in New South Wales (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing of around 7% compared with the last election), 60-40 in Victoria (out from 58-42, a swing of around 7%), 61.5-38.5 in South Australia (out from 58-42, a swing of around 11%) and 64.5-35.5 in Tasmania. The Coalition leads 54.5-45.5 in Queensland (out from 51-49, a swing to Labor of around 3.5%) and 54.5-45.5 in Western Australia (out from 51-49, a swing to Labor of around 1%). The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1393.
As reported in the Financial Review today, a not dissimilar set of voting intention figures in the Ipsos poll that was published yesterday derives from distinctly different state breakdowns. Going off 2019 preference flows, the Ipsos results are similar insofar as they credit Labor with leads of 58-42 in Victoria (compared with 56-44 in the poll three weeks ago) and 65-35 off the particularly small sample in Tasmania. However, Ipsos has Labor’s leads at 52-48 in New South Wales (53-47 last time), 55-45 in South Australia (62-38) and fully 59-41 in Western Australia (54-46 last time), along with a 50-50 result in Queensland (54-46 to Labor last time).
Sample sizes are such that all state breakdowns are to be treated with considerable caution, with the partial exceptions of Ipsos’s results for New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, which respectively have sample sizes 756, 584 and 448 and error margins of 3.7%, 4.3% and 4.9%. This is even more so in the case of the Morgan poll, whose national sample of 1393 compares with 2302 from the Ipsos poll.
on the government ran security think tank aspi is justin Bassi marise paynes chief of staffs appointment as its new director confermed hopefuly Labor can cansil it as it is important to have a respected independent not a liberal party oficial given the handling of solamons hop gaetjens can be recversed curent head peter jenings is trusted buy both sides of politicsefuly the libs stacking of the aps with mates such a s gaetjens can be
We need ICAC to deal with the feds like it dealt with Obeid. Only Labor can be trusted to implement ICAC. Liberals must be held accountable.
A very good morning from Paris, or Lutetia, the city of my birth.
It’s been over a decade since I was here, I hardly recognise it.
The election still looks wide open from my window. The French seem to have forgotten about their poll instantly.
Freya Stark says:
Thursday, April 28, 2022 at 2:43 pm
A very good morning from Paris, or Lutetia, the city of my birth.
It’s been over a decade since I was here, I hardly recognise it.
The election still looks wide open from my window. The French seem to have forgotten about their poll instantly.
中华人民共和国
Freya darling. It’s been over a decade since I was back in my birthplace at Bobawabba.
But I am sure I will recognise it.
The smell of burnt sugarcane and the sickly sweet of bagasse freshly dumped at the sugar mill.
The Cane Toads jumping in front of the car at night – a competition to see how many you can hit.
The croak of the Green Tree Frogs after a tropical downpour.
Oh Freya you must tell me when you are coming. The State School kids will wear shoes for the visit and the Catholic school has arranged a Debutante Ball.
You will be the judge!!
Bobawabba hasn’t changed one bit – except inflation, debt and taxes have gone through the roof.